How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Artkin]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

When something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Still UA MOD reported that all of T-80BVMs were killed, which has the same FCS as a T-90M. Considering Russia is a mechanized army, this is really bad. They will remain an army, just not nearly as powerful as they were before, and it will take a long time to get back to that level. Don't forget Russia is a country who's young male population is already lower than normal.

Understandably many fighters are from the poorer regions of Russia and are probably fighting for the cash. I doubt many people from Moscow and the more socially connected regions will have the gut to give up their standard of living and join the fight for Eastern Europe.

[Grigb]

Girkin says UKR is hard hitting Makeyevka today instead of Donetsk. Then rants that he does not believe in temporary Bread truce. Looks like he is talking about Grain talks in Turkey.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Still UA MOD reported that all of T-80BVMs were killed, which has the same FCS as a T-90M. Considering Russia is a mechanized army, this is really bad. They will remain an army, just not nearly as powerful as they were before, and it will take a long time to get back to that level. Don't forget Russia is a country who's young male population is already lower than normal.

Understandably many fighters are from the poorer regions of Russia and are probably fighting for the cash. I doubt many people from Moscow and the more socially connected regions will have the gut to give up their standard of living and join the fight for Eastern Europe.

Did you watch the youtube movie from the Austrian army I've posted? Would like to hear your opinion about it. Seriously. And the opinion of @Steve, @Capt and others. It seems like this war will drag on for a long time.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

Stumbled upon this Wiki detailing Russian generals lost or thought to have been lost.  Their count is 11 confirmed and 3 later shown to be untrue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine

I was curious about how many officers were lost compared to how many Russia normally has on hand.  I only have a figure of roughly 220,000 officers for the entire armed forces, but that was before Russia downsized to about 600,000 men.  Proportionally this should mean about 145,000.  The overwhelming amount will be LTs followed by CPTs, but I have no way to assess what those numbers are.

My curiosity was about how many MAJ, LTC, and COL have been lost compared to how many Russia started out with.  I'm sure it is a meaningful percentage, but it would be nice to have a better sense of the impact of losses really is.

Steve

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1547308890659983365

Interesting picture of Russian fortifications being transported in Southern front.

This is actually quite curious how much money, work and materials Russians want to invest into constructing those defensive lines. I have a feeling they will be hard nut to crack for UA army if it push its offensive.

[Twisk]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Sobering. Please comment.

These have been interesting to watch and seem to be more negative towards Ukrainian performance/positive towards Russian performance than other sources I have seen.

He talks about war of attrition and I wonder what amount of Russian war capability is relying on Soviet Union production foresight. and what Russian capability will be when the USSR stock dwindles. They are already on USSR stock of tanks and IFV it seems.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, Twisk said:

These have been interesting to watch and seem to be more negative towards Ukrainian performance/positive towards Russian performance than other sources I have seen.

He talks about war of attrition and I wonder what amount of Russian war capability is relying on Soviet Union production foresight. and what Russian capability will be when the USSR stock dwindles. They are already on USSR stock of tanks and IFV it seems.

But surely a country of that size and with such a defence industry should be able to produce a steady stream of weapons? 

[The_Capt]

Correlation does not automatically mean causation but this is interesting:

This was passed onto me by a student at our Joint Staff college, we are all watching this thing with high interest right now.

[hcrof]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1547308890659983365

Interesting picture of Russian fortifications being transported in Southern front.

This is actually quite curious how much money, work and materials Russians want to invest into constructing those defensive lines. I have a feeling they will be hard nut to crack for UA army if it push its offensive.

I am struggling to understand how those will be used as fortifications - by themselves the concrete is so thin it will probably not stop a 12.7mm round but if you piled earth against it you would not be able to spot out of the windows?

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Stumbled upon this Wiki detailing Russian generals lost or thought to have been lost.  Their count is 11 confirmed and 3 later shown to be untrue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine

I was curious about how many officers were lost compared to how many Russia normally has on hand.  I only have a figure of roughly 220,000 officers for the entire armed forces, but that was before Russia downsized to about 600,000 men.  Proportionally this should mean about 145,000.  The overwhelming amount will be LTs followed by CPTs, but I have no way to assess what those numbers are.

My curiosity was about how many MAJ, LTC, and COL have been lost compared to how many Russia started out with.  I'm sure it is a meaningful percentage, but it would be nice to have a better sense of the impact of losses really is.

Steve

I haven't included Botashev as he wasn't functioning as a general.  It looks like we have 3 confirmed with another 6 claimed one of whom wasn't on that list.

Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army Confirmed
MG Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of 8th Guard CAA, Southern military district Confirmed
LTG Kutuzov. He was shadow commander of DPR "army" (1st Army Corps of DPR People's miltia)  Confirmed

MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander Claimed
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division Claimed
LTG Yakov Rezantsev, Russia’s 49th CAA commander, in Chornobaivka near Kherson. Claimed
Major General Simonov Deputy chief of Electronic Warfare Troops of Armed Forces of Russian Federation Claimed
Major-General Nasbulin, Chief of Staff of Russia’s 22nd Army Corps Claimed

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov Commander of the Russian Federation’s 29th Army

 

Taking these two off my list

Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander of The 41st Army
General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev commander 8th CAA 

Additionally, I have these two wounded

Major General Serhiy Nirkov was seriously wounded; Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 35th Combined Arns Army
Major General Andriy Serytsky Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 36th Combined Arms Army was seriously wounded;

[Haiduk]

At the dawn 13th of July Russian ammo dump was hit, being deployed in querry near Starovirivka village and railway station. This is 15 km west from Kupiansk, Kharkiv oblast - main railway node of Russian logistic in NE Ukraine. There is no photos and videos, just FIRM report and RUMINT about huge explosion, which broke the windows in villages nearby

Edited July 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

20 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But surely a country of that size and with such a defence industry should be able to produce a steady stream of weapons? 

So yeah that video was posted previously and was discussed a bit. It went into how most of Ukraine's energy is located in the far East and how the grain is next if Russia keeps pushing North and West.

The video isn't sobering to me. It's been no mystery that the Ukrainians have taken losses. They lost a lot of APC's and IFV's which probably won't be replaced anytime soon. The tanks have already been replaced, and Poland is giving up its PT-91 Twardy's now? Not sure if that's a fact yet. Ukraine's army is going to get larger and larger while they wait for the winter to come and go. So either Russia will try something hasty, or wait until next year. It's obvious they thought this war would take a long time, and they wanted to finish it within the year, so they started as early as possible. They probably thought they initial shock of the first two weeks would have them far in Ukraine's road network, and then as the ground dried they would be able to shift their tactics back onto the dirt. This is all speculation, but to me it makes sense.

You can monitor their defense industry by checking copies of The Military Balance as the years go by. It appears they have spent their time mostly modernizing equipment. Their newest stuff looks like  anti-air systems.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Artkin

[Beleg85]

38 minutes ago, Twisk said:

These have been interesting to watch and seem to be more negative towards Ukrainian performance/positive towards Russian performance than other sources I have seen.

He talks about war of attrition and I wonder what amount of Russian war capability is relying on Soviet Union production foresight. and what Russian capability will be when the USSR stock dwindles. They are already on USSR stock of tanks and IFV it seems.

Ok, this is second time this Austrian colonel guy miss the point on several occassions:

1.Russians were not "reluctant" to close cauldron to lure more Ukrainians. They tried to close it numerous times, but smashed their heads/made minimal progress every time until end of June.

2.There is no evidence UA lost significant amount of equipment in Donetsk cauldron. They may lost several dozens of APC's and tanks and several western howitzers at the most. They did took heavy personnel casualties, but so did Russians.

3.Main lines of comunication weren't closed until very late.

4.Not mention of brutal grinding street battles in Severdonetsk. Many sources (incl. RUS) mentioned heavy casualties LDPR units took. Still the reason Ukrainians stayed in the city is a mystery we tried to discuss and solve here many times.

5. Most Ukrainian units made relatively ordered reatreat. No massive evidence of burned vehicles, hundreds of casualties or columns of prisoners. Nothing that would pass into history as "Highway of Death" or similar symbol. We know it didn't happen, because for 100% Russian propaganda would feast on it for weeks.

6.Note one important thing absent in his assessment- lack of agency on Ukrainian side. Like whole war was one sided endevour of Russians attacking passive Ukrainians. No mention of UAF pushing in forests west of Izyum, local counterattacks, good (if not numerous) counter-battery fires, offensive in Kherson front etc.

Tom Cooper (himself an Austrian or at least close to Austrian defense circles) already touched this topic several times and he was once similarly critical of their assessments. It's not mystery that Ukraine actually puting good (and victorius) fights is not something that please many members of  Austrian political class.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

Regarding Ru military-industrial complex

• RU defense industry "lives in starvation"
• A significant part of defense enterprises is experiencing severe problems (shortage of working capital, pyramids in the budgets)
• And as result there is an outflow of qualified personnel, constant changes of the management staff, low salaries, dependence on RU gov in solving financial problems
• Last bailing out happened in 2020-2021

Quote

How the defense industry survives – letter from the head of the enterprise
July 04, 2022

...I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, in general, large enterprises engaged in the execution of the State Defense Order are experiencing significant financial difficulties. Most of the manufacturing plants are unprofitable. The main reasons (as one of the high leaders of our country put it) "the defense industry lives in starvation" are a small orders (low load), limited [by the government] pricing that does not take into account the real cost of production, obsoletion and physical wear of equipment (underfunding of key sectors of the military-industrial complex) and, as a result, the prevalence of inefficient manual labor with a high proportion of overhead costs.

A significant part of defense enterprises today is experiencing an acute shortage of working capital. This is due to the systematic need to attract credit resources to patch holes. The emerging pyramids in the budgets of defense enterprises (I want to note that this is an established practice) lead to disastrous consequences for the entire defense industry:

- outflow of qualified personnel (loss of entire design schools, qualified technologists and basic workers);

- constant changes of the management staff (temporary losses in decision-making);

- low salaries and, as a result, a drop in motivation (an increase in illegal actions of all categories of employees – theft);

- dependence on RU gov in solving financial problems [they make bad decisions knowing RU gov will bail them out]

The last patching of holes in the defense industry took place in 2020-2021, when the President of the Russian Federation allocated more than 750 billion rubles by his decree. (In various [financial] support tools) for repayment of debts of large companies to banks...

 

Now back to Girkin and whether RU can last long war (translation i published some time ago)

Quote

• Girkin does not fear UKR breakthrough and RU army collapse but long war/WW1 meat grinder. He says long war is dangerous because RU economy will break, RU population will stop supporting the war because they do not really understand why RU started the war, production will stop, sanction will complete the job [of RU economy collapse].

 

[Artkin]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

several western howitzers

I'm sure this is where most of the M777's were lost. That cauldron was a great place to exchange artillery fire between both sides

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I am struggling to understand how those will be used as fortifications - by themselves the concrete is so thin it will probably not stop a 12.7mm round but if you piled earth against it you would not be able to spot out of the windows?

It is most likely concrete copy of German WW2 that sort of impressed Soviets. AFAIR indeed you pile earth against it but you leave narrow slit for small MG window.  Like this

 

[Grey_Fox]

3 hours ago, Twisk said:

I have avoided posting much because my input is not always needed but please stop polluting this thread with your complaints and take them elsewhere. You are showing absurd entitlement to new game product. Owner of company has responded to you and workers on the game have also responded to you. This is more respect than most developers give random user on forum and you waste it on more complaining and arguing because of your need for entertainment is so high.
 

All due respect this conversation was finished several days ago, and then others came along and started it back up again - not me.

You get your kicks from reading people sperg here about an ongoing conflict and posting links to twitter of all things, I get mine from among other things playing computer games.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Grey_Fox

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I'm sure this is where most of the M777's were lost. That cauldron was a great place to exchange artillery fire between both sides

Yes, but we didn't see evidence on any massive heavy equipment loss. How many destroyed M777 there were...5-8? Maybe two additionally broken M109's. No Krabs or Panzerhaubitze which would be real prize.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

5. Most Ukrainian units made relatively ordered reatreat. No massive evidence of burned vehicles, hundreds of casualties or columns of prisoners. Nothing that would pass into history as "Highway of Death" or similar symbol. We know it didn't happen, because for 100% Russian propaganda would feast on it for weeks.

Yeah, and we know this to be true because the Russian propagandists have had NOTHING to show for their glorious victory in Luhansk.  Compare and contrast this with Mariupol.

Ukraine took losses during the combat there.  It does not appear it took many losses during the withdrawal

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, but we didn't see evidence on any massive heavy equipment loss. How many destroyed M777 there were...5-8? Maybe two additionally broken M109's. No Krabs or Panzerhaubitze which would be real prize.

I've only seen a single badly mauled M777 that was clearly left there because it was pointless to try and recover it.   It could have been lost days or even weeks before the withdrawal.

Steve

[sburke]

21 minutes ago, Artkin said:

. So either Russia will try something hasty, or wait until next year. It's obvious they thought this war would take a long time, and they wanted to finish it within the year, so they started as early as possible. They probably thought they initial shock of the first two weeks would have them far in Ukraine's road network, and then as the ground dried they would be able to shift their tactics back onto the dirt. This is all speculation, but to me it makes sense.

I just stopped right there. None of that is true. Russia planned on a 3 day blitz. Everything we saw early on indicated that. The stupid rush on Kiev, the poorly planned air landings, the limited supplies provided etc. Russia needed and expected this to be a quick overwhelming onslaught. They didn’t plan for 5 months much less a year. They didn’t plan for a swift united western response, they didn’t plan for a cratering economy and they most definitely didn’t plan for the humiliating destruction of their best equipped units by the UA.

russia has the tiger by the tail now. They are royally fk’d. 

[Huba]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Correlation does not automatically mean causation but this is interesting:

This was passed onto me by a student at our Joint Staff college, we are all watching this thing with high interest right now.

I checked weather for these days for Kharkhiv, Kramatrosk, Zaporozhiy and Kherson, there was hardly any rain or clouds. Still not a proof but...

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I am struggling to understand how those will be used as fortifications - by themselves the concrete is so thin it will probably not stop a 12.7mm round but if you piled earth against it you would not be able to spot out of the windows?

Russian copium takes many forms. And it probably does protect against light splinters.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Russian copium takes many forms. And it probably does protect against light splinters.

I think it's like @Grigb said, it's just an load-bearing structure to be covered with earth/ sandbags which provide most of the cover. Surely beats wooden constructions in every way.

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is most likely concrete copy of German WW2 that sort of impressed Soviets. AFAIR indeed you pile earth against it but you leave narrow slit for small MG window.  Like this

 

Also worth pointing out that satellites can probably track where these are installed to tenth of a meter. The Ukrainians might be able to work them like a set of practice targets.