How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Because they wear flip flops inside

reminds me of my first data center install in Japan where the crew all changed into slippers before working.  Probably be an OSHA violation in US.

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Are Ukrainians happy with the 777 so far? I've read conflicting reports that a lot of are out of action at the moment due to wear, maintenance, or enemy fire. The latter its hard to confirm as there are non existent visual clues and the russian videos are of bad quality. 

Of course! Despite some training and tactical issues, those guys who have been serving in artillery long time have very good opinion about 777 and other western 155 mm (SP)howitzers. First of all - due to much better technologies of barrels prodicing and more precice powder charges weight and shells weight, western guns have less dispersion, so they can be used as "sniper rifles of arty" in comparison with Russians, which just showering our positions grid-by-grid with tons of steel.  

Though there is one significant issue - barrels exhaust in two times faster, than Soviet - about 2000 shots against 5000 in average. After 2000 accuracy is graduially reducing to Soviet guns level, but since Canada supply us with barrels, this problem can be solved by maintainance units.   

Edited July 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

Putin Ally Lukashenko Faces Revolt From Officers Against Ukraine War (msn.com)

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, photon said:

One thing that's been eyebrow raising to me is the nadir angle of so many of the drone videos - it looks like at least some of the drones are flying right over the things they're recording at relatively low altitudes. There are certainly some low-angle obliques, which makes sense to me. It looks like the nadir shots are often recon/targeting, and the low-angle shots are BDA?

Overhead shots are most likely done with smaller close recon drones with limited endurance - you want them back for battery replacement as soon as their job is done. The low-angle shots are done by larger drones who are capable of staying around longer to see the end of party.

 

6 hours ago, photon said:

And the people whom the drone sees often don't respond in the way I'd expect (getting out of the way of the likely soon incoming rounds). Which suggests that not only do they not have effective anti-drone weapons, but they don't have a system to detect when they're being observed by drones *flying right over them*.

Yes, in regular units (especially with TD and Mobiks units we see most often) there is a certain lack of both equipment and training. But there are also other factors.

1. Generally modern drones are stealthier than we expect. Especially if the operator is experienced and knows detection ranges.
2. Because small arms are not very effective against experienced operators and EW rifles are more of a nuisance the solders resort to the easiest way to deal with drones - ignore them (and get complacent).
3. There is a certain bias - we see videos with arty shots, and they arrive quickly. In reality it depends. Often drones just observe and arty might arrive not as fast as we think. 

 

6 hours ago, photon said:

German submarines suffered because our centimetric radar was invisible to German radar-detectors, a problem they never really solved. I wonder what systems to detect drone-based observation would look like? Even if you can't shoot the drones down reliably, knowing when you're being observed would be valuable I'd think?

There are civilian products (like DJI Aeroscope). But their usefulness is decreasing now as RU started to patch drone soft. SIGINT equipment should pick them up as well. But information is limited so I cannot comment. Finally, I got from RU discussions a portable microphone solution with noise pattern recognition software would be good to investigate.

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin Ally Lukashenko Faces Revolt From Officers Against Ukraine War (msn.com)

Oh, goody.  We might get a real life test of Dan/CA's Belarus collapse theory.  I would love to see military coup in Belarus -- not something I've really said much in my life "I'd love to see a military coup..." 

[Aragorn2002]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While Russia is taking a moment or two for their operational pause, I think it's a good time for us to think about what comes next for this war.  I'll get the ball rolling...

Ultimately this war will end only when Ukraine or Russia can no longer effectively kill the other.  Since both believe this war will decide their fate as nations, I don't see either of them willingly seeking to end the war before they think they have won.  Therefore, it will come down to which nation can fight longer than the other.  I think I've been pretty clear I believe all the evidence of this war and the weight of history show Ukraine will be the ultimate victor.

Historians can advise on what the likely outcomes might be given a particular set of circumstances, but the larger scale the topic the more elusive predicting the timeframe is.  I said on Day 3 of this war that Russia has already lost it, but it would take some time for it to become reality.  I had hoped that it would have happened right around now, but sadly it hasn't yet happened.  Why?  Because there's just too many variables for Russia to play with to extend how long it is able to wage war.

Some might say "ah, Russia is finally learning how to fight!".  Not me.  I think Russia is fighting just about as poorly as it did in the first few weeks and months.  It hasn't learned much of anything.  The change in tactics we've seen are mostly because it no longer has the physical strength to fight they way it used to nor the way it wants to (i.e. quickly end the war through bold actions).  If 10 full strength BTGs magically appeared out of thin air, they would say "ah-ha!  Now we can make a bold and decisive attack without air cover, without coordination of arms, without favorable terrain, and without a demoralized enemy that isn't armed with often times superior defensive weaponry".  I do not think for a second they would do otherwise.

What Russia has been more successful at is figuring out how to not collapse.  I am impressed at how many tricks Russia has up its sleeve to keep the cannon fodder moving to the front, to put into service 60 year old weaponry, to keep the domestic population controlled, and to completely reject reality in the mistaken belief that Russia will eventually win because it's Russia.  However, all of these tricks are just that and tricks always have a limited number of times they can be used.  It is also true that when a new trick is required it is harder to find than the previous one.

Russia has many tricks up its sleeves, but sleeves always end at the shoulder.  There is a definite end to what Russia is able to do to keep this war going, we just don't know where that definite end is with any certainty.

Steve

 

The day the Russians will have lost this war, I will go to my cellar, take two bottles of red wine, drink them both and cry from happiness. 

[akd]

32 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Kuzminov wasn't poitical officer ("zampolit"). He was "zampotyl" - brief name of duty "zamestitel' po tylu" - commander's deputy of rear. He responses for supply and logistic of unit.   

Misread that. Thanks.

Unsourced rumor, but Col. Kens seems to have been mostly confirmed already:

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

The day the Russians will have lost this war, I will go to my cellar, take two bottles of red wine, drink them both and cry from happiness. 

I in all seriousness intend to take a day off, catch a plane to Kyiv and see the victory parade with my own eyes. My wife is not amused...

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

there was also a report in the Daily Mail of a Russian HQ being hit.  Don't know validity and no details.

Russia Ukraine news: 'Twelve of Vladimir Putin's officers are killed' in Kherson strike | Daily Mail Online

Some sources say about the three significant strikes today on Russian command centers:

- Luhansk (probably most missiles were intercepted, but locals wrote about at least one impact)

- Tavriys'k, Kherson oblast (HQ of 20th GMRD, probably wounded/dead colonel Kens from there)

- Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast (HQ of 19th MRD)

 

And here is a photo of yesterdays hit on gymnasium building in Kherson, where Russians deployed police and Rosgvardia units. Reportedly first strike was at 5:00, then the second at 10:00. Very sad we were forced to damage hystorically valuable building, but I hopre it will be restored. RUMINT reports 12 high-ranked officers (mostly security forces) were killed in this strike. Also RUMINT says about Sevastopol police suffered losses in this strike

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

yeah, I think you got it right GrigB.  M777 may not be 'war winning' but it sure is killing russians in a manner more effective than w/o these guns.  I don't even want to think about how badly UKR would be doing w/o these weapons & shells.  It's an arty war and has been for a couple months.  Less is not better.  

RU is definitely feeling the pain. Not like from HIMARS but solid everyday pain. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Misread that. Thanks.

Unsourced rumor, but Col. Kens seems to have been mostly confirmed already:

 

There's more info, quite probably true. On top of that, there was some info about strike on S300 unit south of Kherson a moment ago

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

But their usefulness is decreasing now as RU started to patch drone soft.

UKR too. DPR troops received two Aeroscope stations as far as two years ago or something around this, but our technecians quickly found solution to make DJI drones invisible for Aeroscope

[Grigb]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russian response to the HIMARS campaign against their logistics seems to be firing every gun they have to prove they still can. Either they think they can still get resupplied, or someone in the Russian command structure has realized that intentionally running out of ammo is an excuse to pack up and go home. Which might actually be rational response to Putin's determination to push the Russian army all the way to 1917 levels of complete failure. I still think the way the Russians are fighting now has as much to do with the post war/post Putin blame game as any rational military strategy.

Locals and reporters were upset that not only UKR arty/HIMARS continued to arrive they did not hear RU firing back. So, that firing could be for psychological purposes as well.

[Lethaface]

33 minutes ago, sburke said:

reminds me of my first data center install in Japan where the crew all changed into slippers before working.  Probably be an OSHA violation in US.

Don't mess up our new datacenter/PzH2000 with your dirty shoes! 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

UKR too. DPR troops received two Aeroscope stations as far as two years ago or something around this, but our technecians quickly found solution to make DJI drones invisible for Aeroscope

Good to know! I knew that even without patch your guys quickly found workaround that RU seems were not aware, but patch is better. 

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

I in all seriousness intend to take a day off, catch a plane to Kyiv and see the victory parade with my own eyes. My wife is not amused...

I'll be in Mitteleuropa  for a couple of weeks in August. If it happens then, I'll meet you in Kyiv.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Locals and reporters were upset that not only UKR arty/HIMARS continued to arrive they did not hear RU firing back. So, that firing could be for psychological purposes as well.

Todays FIRM map has minimum marks of fires on our side of frontline on Donbas. Two days ago all was dark red there

[akd]

30 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's more info, quite probably true. On top of that, there was some info about strike on S300 unit south of Kherson a moment ago

 

Circling back to this: https://gur.gov.ua/content/spysok-osobovoho-skladu-20yi-hvardiiskoi-motostriletsikoi-dyvizii-zs-rf.html

Col. A. N. Gorobets was indeed listed as the division commander and Lt. Col. Sergei Gordeev the chief of artillery as of March 2, 2002.  The post (“Заместитель начальника штаба - начальник оперативного отделения штаба”) listed for Lt. Col. Koval was vacant at that time.

Edited July 11, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, akd said:

And a cop. Police Col. Igor Murzin, Deputy Commander, Kuzbass SOBR:

February 25th?!?  I wonder why such a huge delay in burying him.  Maybe body only recently returned as part of a swap?

Seems he was part of the group that got slaughtered on the western outskirts of Kyiv on February 25th.  I found this article that announced the death of another Colonel from the same unit:

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/commander-of-kuzbass-sobr-killed-in-military-operation-in-ukraine-the-moscow-times/

The captured SOBR member mentioned above was one of the very first captured Russians to go before the cameras and decry the war.  This guy, in particular, was eloquent and I'm convinced was speaking from the heart.  He went way beyond superficial "I didn't know what was happening and I'm sorry it happened" statements.

Article about the ill fated attack and the general invasion plan.  It is an extremely good read and a refresher of how this war got started.  Highly recommended:

Quote

This is the incredible and tragic true story of a small group of Russian riot and SWAT cops who tried to storm the Ukrainian capital by themselves. 

https://thedebrief.org/know-no-mercy-the-russian-cops-who-tried-to-storm-kyiv-by-themselves/

Steve

[akd]

Looks like more SMArt 155 sub-munitions working (one is off-camera), but possibly against an already destroyed AFV:

 

[Cederic]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Also, Russians are REALLY scrapping the bottom of the barrel in artillery department:

 

Hey, it was lethal back then, it's still lethal now. Don't be knocking the value of effective eccentricity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Churchill
 

 

[Grigb]

On 7/10/2022 at 1:41 PM, Huba said:

I refrain from posting some news/ stuff I'm reading not to flood the forum too much - the difference is that you produce a lot of "original" content with your translations/ summaries of various RU sources, please definitely keep it up! Some ideas/ thoughts about what you could do with it:

Are you familiar with this Dimitri guy from wartranslated.com? He started by puting some translations on Twitter, and had to start a website, as Twitter is not that supportive for longer forms. He got quite a bit of fame from that and is routinely quoted by various "twitter analysts", but also by some quite serious people. We used to post some of his stuff here (most often Girkin) but stopped cause you come up with more and better stuff that him. So some ideas from me:

- if you're after a bit of fame, start putting your content on twitter, or start a website ( runationaliststranslated.com?). If you're not  that tech savvy, some help can be easily organized  You already have all the content needed, just missing the way to expose it to wider audience, and IMO it's a waste for the world

- if you don't care about personal glory at all, how about asking this Dmitry guy to post your content? With your proven track record of delivering Grade A stuff he might be up for it

- failing that, how about some livejournal or other blogging platform

- and if your'e not interested in any of it, by God, please keep posting here!

 

 

 

Sorry for the delay but I wanted to push out that Girkin translation first. I do it mostly because I do read a lot daily and feel pity if I cannot share interesting bits. So, far this forum thread is the most comfortable way for me (I did try a few different platforms in the past). But thanks for the advice. I really appreciate it. 

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry for the delay but I wanted to push out that Girkin translation first. I do it mostly because I do read a lot daily and feel pity if I cannot share interesting bits. So, far this forum thread is the most comfortable way for me (I did try a few different platforms in the past). But thanks for the advice. I really appreciate it. 

I used to rely upon Dimitri for these translations because most came from videos, which means I can't use Google Translate to get a functional translation.  But Dimitri is spread thin and is trying to cover other ground as well (general news, for example).  His translations are more sporadic and not as full as yours are.  Your focus on the Girkin, Munz, and other mil bloggers is exactly what readers of this thread are looking for.  Thank you for keeping us informed.

Steve

[akd]

Just checked my watch and it’s HIMARS o’clock again:

Said to be near Nova Kahkovka dam.

Edited July 11, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

My last understanding is that Kyselivka was the linchpin of the Russian defenses around Kherson. With the Himars strike on the S300 in the Kherson vicinity the advancing AFU troops might even have a semblance of air cover.

Edited July 11, 2022 by dan/california
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