How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

On 6/29/2022 at 8:23 PM, Beleg85 said:

I hope Erdogan will not flick again during ratification process. Do you think he can do that?

@billbindc @mosuri

Going by his statements after the summit, he wants something concrete that he can display to his power base as a sign of his strength, and faces in handcuffs that have been extradited from Finland and Sweden check the box, so I expect him to put pressure in that direction.

However, it appears the operation planned against the YPG has been cancelled - I assume this is where Biden 'had a talk' with him.

On 6/29/2022 at 8:23 PM, Beleg85 said:

Also not to whitewash PKK past terrorist acts, but TAK are already separate group and terribly fishy one at that...

The TAK are indeed fishy: I am not aware of another terrorist organization that has been active for almost two decades, where we know nothing about the organization's leadership nor structure.

They are also uniquely tolerated by the PKK, which has historically never allowed other organizations to operate on its turf: It eliminated all rival Kurdish organizations in the 80s, and went out if its way, while fighting very hard against the Turkish military in the 90s, to fight and destroy TİKKO in Dersim.

I can also add a personal insight: After I made 'sergeant' (OR-4/E-4), my fun activity during night watches was to check senior NCOs' desk drawers for documents stamped 'secret' that they were too lazy to return to the safe - good ole days without security cameras. Most interesting among my finds were intel reports about teams of bombers that had been dispatched to known cities and coastal resorts, and these operatives were always dispatched from PKK bases in northern Iraq or inside Turkey. Thus, back when TAK started its business, it was relying fully on the PKK's infrastructure.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... The only arguments we have for the TAK being independent of the PKK are statements by the PKK, TAK, and PKK sympathizers who want it delisted as a terrorist organization.

That being said, the PKK gets its hands dirty without TAK branding as well:

PKK kills young teacher after abducting him in Turkey’s east

PKK terrorists abduct, kill 2 shepherds

On 6/29/2022 at 8:23 PM, Beleg85 said:

they usually go berserk when it fits Erdogan; I wouldn't be surprised if they start to bomb again just before next elections.

The TAK cannot be a false flag operation run by Erdoğan because they started when Erdoğan had recently become the PM and did not have control over the state security apparatus. Also, TAK bombings reveal another pattern: They almost always carry out an attack after the PKK suffers a heavy loss, clearly indicating their morale-boosting mission for the PKK.

However, it is true that their attacks have helped Erdoğan win election victories, and there is no need to seek a conspiracy behind this: The PKK LOVES Erdoğan! 

Think about it: Arguably the worst human rights abuses against Turkey's Kurds since the military junta of 1980 were committed during Çiller's campaign against the PKK, yet few cared in the West. She was Turkey's first woman PM, had a PhD from the US - she oozed 'progressive', and few cared to look beyond.

Now, in Erdoğan, Turkey has a face that openly expresses his disdain for all who aren't practicing Muslims, keeps promising to turn a UNESCO world heritage site into a mosque and eventually does it, keeps calling Germans and Dutch (?) 'Nazis', and still manages to rub most Islamic countries the wrong way as well - wouldn't you LOVE your enemy to have a face like that? 

Moreover, by jailing HDP politicians since 2016, I'm sure Erdoğan has done wonders for the PKK's recruitment. Thus, I too expect TAK bombings to restart before the elections, and the reason is pretty straightforward.

This wasn't photoshopped; just a regular day in 'Türkiye':

[Calamine Waffles]

51 minutes ago, Machor said:

@billbindc @mosuri

The TAK are indeed fishy: I am not aware of another terrorist organization that has been active for almost two decades, where we know nothing about the organization's leadership nor structure.

Well, the LTTE (Tamil Tigers) were active for 33 years.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Also, holy ****, I did not realize the UAF has less than 100 aircraft, wtf, why isn't the Russian Air Force just flooding the entire airspace with planes

The RUAF tried in the early days but they don't have the SEAD capability that we are used to seeing from the USAF. I think it was The Capt that advised the US is the only nation that trains extensively for SEAD and has dedicated planes, pilots and formations for the mission. I'm a ground pounder so I'm probably not explaining it as good as others could but basically the RUAF is not capable of neutralizing the UA air defense and has been relegated to launching cruise missiles from long stand off range or operating only right on the front lines. 

This is one of the biggest pieces missing from both side's ability to conduct maneuver warfare. Neither of them can operate above the other and neither has the ability to neutralize the other's air defense. If either of them could it would be a game changer. Most of us thought, like you, that the RUAF was very capable and would dominate the skies with air superiority in all aspects within a matter of days when this war kicked off. Apparently the RUAF is pretty much ran like the RA where a lot of their capabilities have proved to be overstated.

If either side had capabilities approaching what the USAF or USN has there would be a serious bloodbath for the opposing forces. The RUAF has no chance of developing it at this point. Again, I don't know much about this but from what I've read here it takes awhile to get a pilot competent on an airframe and awhile longer to get competent with weapons, tactics, etc. So conceivably the UAF has a chance if the war drags on over a year? maybe longer? There has been a lot of training going on for extended periods without it being publicized on different weapon systems and there has been talk of Ukrainian pilots being trained in western countries so it is possible. One of the 1st squadrons I remember being sent to Europe was F18 Growlers so they could already be working on it in Germany. I know that it is all probably wishful thinking on my part but it is possible. How probable, maybe some experts on here could enlighten us?

[sburke]

Now that is a table....

Putin's preposterously long table at Kremlin dwarfed by gigantic table at a summit he attended in Turkmenistan (msn.com)

[chuckdyke]

They need plenty of room for all the "Under the table deals."

[FancyCat]

More info in the thread, included more detailed zoomed in maps of each front. 

 

 

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

The RUAF tried in the early days but they don't have the SEAD capability that we are used to seeing from the USAF. I think it was The Capt that advised the US is the only nation that trains extensively for SEAD and has dedicated planes, pilots and formations for the mission. I'm a ground pounder so I'm probably not explaining it as good as others could but basically the RUAF is not capable of neutralizing the UA air defense and has been relegated to launching cruise missiles from long stand off range or operating only right on the front lines. 

This is one of the biggest pieces missing from both side's ability to conduct maneuver warfare. Neither of them can operate above the other and neither has the ability to neutralize the other's air defense. If either of them could it would be a game changer. Most of us thought, like you, that the RUAF was very capable and would dominate the skies with air superiority in all aspects within a matter of days when this war kicked off. Apparently the RUAF is pretty much ran like the RA where a lot of their capabilities have proved to be overstated.

If either side had capabilities approaching what the USAF or USN has there would be a serious bloodbath for the opposing forces. The RUAF has no chance of developing it at this point. Again, I don't know much about this but from what I've read here it takes awhile to get a pilot competent on an airframe and awhile longer to get competent with weapons, tactics, etc. So conceivably the UAF has a chance if the war drags on over a year? maybe longer? There has been a lot of training going on for extended periods without it being publicized on different weapon systems and there has been talk of Ukrainian pilots being trained in western countries so it is possible. One of the 1st squadrons I remember being sent to Europe was F18 Growlers so they could already be working on it in Germany. I know that it is all probably wishful thinking on my part but it is possible. How probable, maybe some experts on here could enlighten us?

I wonder if the new long-range arty systems can change the air force situation. Could the Ukrainians do SEAD with HIMARS+drones or something? Or is that not long enough range?

[The_MonkeyKing]

40 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder if the new long-range arty systems can change the air force situation. Could the Ukrainians do SEAD with HIMARS+drones or something? Or is that not long enough range?

Yes, HIMARS it is going to change the anti-air situation as well. Not that much and even if Russia didn't have any AA capability the UKR air force is not going to be able to do that much in the big picture.

It is a matter how UKR prioritizes target for HIMARS. I am guessing AA systems are not that high on the list, other than strategic level systems.

And with HIMARS the greatest impact is going to be achieved now, when the systems have just been introduced and Russia is just starting to adjust to them. Russia is going to be increasingly decentralizing and moving around logistics, command&control and other high value assets from now on. As a response to this UKR is also going to starts sifting the targeting priorities as well.

Of course there will always be stuff worth hitting with HIMARS but with time less and smaller jackpots. Decentralization is going to cost Russia on efficiency on every level of operations and raise the skill requirements.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/1351282/anchorage-conducts-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-system-shoot-during-db17/#:~:text=The HIMARS is a weapons,Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).

I was thinking. Would it not be cool for Ukraine to sink the black sea fleet in port?

Night operation on a barge with one or two HIMARS and a reload or two. Maybe possible with the current GMLRS (80km) and definitely possible if at some point UKR gets the extended range variant (140km).

There must be ways to smuggle a truck or two (HIMARS) within 80km of Sevastopol.

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Night operation on a barge with one or two HIMARS and a reload or two.

Pure suicide. Russians are patrolling western coast of Crimea. Better variant would be to move Neptune/Harpoon launchers to Ochakiv area, but: 1) it's too risky, 2) missiles will be anyway almost on the limit of own range, 3) Sevastopol and Crimea have strong AD, so with high probability can intercept most of missiles - we can't launch it in huge numbers like Russia. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

34 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yes, HIMARS it is going to change the anti-air situation as well. Not that much and even if Russia didn't have any AA capability the UKR air force is not going to be able to do that much in the big picture.

It is a matter how UKR prioritizes target for HIMARS. I am guessing AA systems are not that high on the list, other than strategic level systems.

And with HIMARS the greatest impact is going to be achieved now, when the systems have just been introduced and Russia is just starting to adjust to them. Russia is going to be increasingly decentralizing and moving around logistics, command&control and other high value assets from now on. As a response to this UKR is also going to starts sifting the targeting priorities as well.

Of course there will always be stuff worth hitting with HIMARS but with time less and smaller jackpots. Decentralization is going to cost Russia on efficiency on every level of operations and raise the skill requirements.

Russian decentralization has been trash. Russian generals getting popped at the frontlines cause their subordinates ain’t gonna move otherwise. Russia couldn’t suppress artillery operating from the shoreline and lost multiple AA systems cause they can’t coordinate air coverage and suppressive fire from the navy to protect Snake Island. 

Russian logistics are tied to rail lines, and nothing about the flood of videos and photos from the rear inspires confidence little birds loyal to Ukraine won’t tell on their positions. Not to mention NATO ISR. Decentralization requires personnel, something Russia lacks severely. Pure survival means decentralization will come, but I just don’t see Russia being able to able to decentralize enough to negate himars.

[Grigb]

Everything is according to the plan from civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan)

RU gas prospect in Europe

Quote

For the first time in history, the export of American gas to Europe exceeded the export of Russian gas.

Yes, this is the result of a completely non-economic struggle, in which politics is dominating "usual" competition. But the struggle for sales markets, especially in the conditions of a growing crisis, is always a war without rules. And in any war, structures, resources and technologies ultimately win.

The Kremlin could neither hold the European market nor build an internal one. Do not be surprised by this outstanding result. People who started their working careers as racketeers, illegal card sharps, fartsovka guys and other respected related professions are good only in their field. In all others they are phenomenally ignorant. [While statement about RU gov officials' history is debatable he does have a point because some of them indeed were like this, especially Putin himself]

 

Agriculture prospect

Quote

The high dependence on foreign seeds against the background of the possible withdrawal of their suppliers from the Russian market forces the Ministry of Agriculture to actively stimulate the transition of farmers to local hybrids. The yield of Russian seeds is 20-30% lower than imported ones, but local hybrids guarantee a harvest in the zone of risky farming. [AFAIR majority of RU land is in zone of risky farming]

Translating into understandable language: the transition to domestic varieties will lead to the disappearance of Russia as a food exporter. Harvests under 120-130 million tons of grain will turn into 90 million. At best.

In 1990, 50 million tons of wheat were harvested in Russia. In 2021 — 76 million tons. That is, returning to domestic varieties, we will get the same 50 million tons. [RU will be back to times of food insecurity] And the myth of rising from the knees will immediately disappear [Putin propaganda likes to push myth that Yeltsin/liberals put RU on the knees/subservient to West and that Putin is making everything possible to rise RU from the knees/being subservient to West]. Instead of spending 30 years breeding their own varieties that are not inferior to imported ones, they followed the easiest way — they simply bought abroad. [On other hand RU nationalists will never admit that alternative way, investing into RU production, would keep RU for the same 30 years with nothing but cheap crap. The issue is not investment but overall RU society culture that significantly lowers productivity. Nationalists will never admit that because they themselves are source of that unproductive culture.] 

30 years were worthlessly farted out. To nowhere. The strategy of doing nothing but buying abroad with an indecent sound and smell gives way to the same problems that are simply swept under the carpet. The carpet was removed — the same garbage remained. Maybe it's time to change the cleaner? [Obvious reference, yes]

[The_MonkeyKing]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Pure suicide. Russians are patrolling western coast of Crimea. Better variant would be to move Neptune/Harpoon launchers to Ochakiv area, but: 1) it's too risky, 2) missiles will be anyway almost on the limit of own range, 3) Sevastopol and Crimea have strong AD, so with high probability can intercept most of missiles - we can't launch it in huge numbers like Russia. 

I agree, very hard op. I am just daydreaming here, haha. Water route might be impossible without some deception. So back to smuggling. 

The air defense aspect would be lesser or none with GMLRS. Small Mach 2 rockets.

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Russian decentralization has been trash. Russian generals getting popped at the frontlines cause their subordinates ain’t gonna move otherwise. Russia couldn’t suppress artillery operating from the shoreline and lost multiple AA systems cause they can’t coordinate air coverage and suppressive fire from the navy to protect Snake Island. 

Russian logistics are tied to rail lines, and nothing about the flood of videos and photos from the rear inspires confidence little birds loyal to Ukraine won’t tell on their positions. Not to mention NATO ISR. Decentralization requires personnel, something Russia lacks severely. Pure survival means decentralization will come, but I just don’t see Russia being able to able to decentralize enough to negate himars.

Indeed. 

Decentralization is going to cost Russia on efficiency on every level of their operations. Good guestimate is "significant cost to OPs".

[Grigb]

From RU Nat forum

 

Quote

[We] Began to use the X-22 [missiles] en masse. They only have an inertial navigation (without glonass correction) and the resulting CEP of hundreds of meters. Plus, the trajectory is not a steep fall (like Iskander's), so the chances of flying into the building along the way are higher. The result is in accordance [with what we see]

Either RU ran out of other PGMs or they switched to terror strikes but with plausible deniability of we are just using less accurate missiles. 

[UPDATE] quote from civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan)

Quote

...As a result, we have a qualitatively different stage of the "special operation". More or less accurate (I will not use the term PGM, since in this case it is necessary to understand what "precision" means according to those who use it [RU military]) weapons have come to an end. At one time, Shoigu reported that 60 Kalibr missiles are manufactured by the Russian military-industrial per quarter [of a year]. Simply put, 60 "Calibers" per quarter and 240 per year are the capabilities of the Russian military—industrial complex. Well, maybe they'll add 60 more on heroism. One salvo of the American "Arlie Burke", of which the United States has 32 units. And that's just the Arlie Burke, and there's a lot more, and also not with Colts .45 caliber.

In general, the missiles seem to be going into action directly from the workshops. Just like parade crews from the parade on November 7, 41, went straight to the front [In November 41 Stalin made desperate Moscow parade with units sent to the frontline straight from Red Square] . Therefore, there is the question of what else is there that can be launched. There are still X-22 missiles. But due to the specifics of their launches at "non-standard" targets [originally X-22 is Naval missile], they will inevitably lead to incidents similar to the Kremenchug one. And you need to understand that the fighting in this case is moving to the practice of the Second World War, when the selectivity of bombing was among the least important tasks that the war opponents were thinking about.

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

18 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I agree, very hard op. I am just daydreaming here, haha. Water route might be impossible without some deception. So back to smuggling. 

The air defense aspect would be lesser or none with GMLRS. Small Mach 2 rockets.

At the moment West (US really) doesn't have the stomach to allow UA to strike what RU deems to be it's territory I think. I think that as time passes and GMLRS becomes common, that might change - and if it does, ATACMS solves the problem perfectly, perhaps coupled with extended range Harpoons or other cruise missiles. Or indeed with aircraft, if those are secretly  in the pipeline.

[panzermartin]

Apparently they have been reported Tupolevs with Kh22 operating in Ukraine, since May. Probably they are destocking their large quantities. If they can't hit a factory how they were supposed to be used against moving and armed ships?

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Apparently they have been reported Tupolevs with Kh22 operating in Ukraine, since May. Probably they are destocking their large quantities. If they can't hit a factory how they were supposed to be used against moving and armed ships?

Kh-22 is radar guided against ship (allegedly can also use this mode against contrasting ground targets, but it's not 100% sure info). In ground attack mode though it will usually use inertial navigation, but as the missile is really 60's tech, it's not very accurate, to say the least.

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Apparently they have been reported Tupolevs with Kh22 operating in Ukraine, since May. Probably they are destocking their large quantities. If they can't hit a factory how they were supposed to be used against moving and armed ships?

Against ships it has radar-guided head.

[panzermartin]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Kh-22 is radar guided against ship (allegedly can also use this mode against contrasting ground targets, but it's not 100% sure info). In ground attack mode though it will usually use inertial navigation, but as the missile is really 60's tech, it's not very accurate, to say the least.

 

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Against ships it has radar-guided head.

Yes, I thought that somehow they would have tweaked the sensors to enhance accuracy for ground use but didnt bother (and propably didnt anticipate they would be using the 60s Kh22 in this conflict)

[Huba]

Just now, panzermartin said:

 

Yes, I thought that somehow they would have tweaked the sensors to enhance accuracy for ground use but didnt bother (and propably didnt anticipate they would be using the 60s Kh22 in this conflict)

They gotta be out of Kalibrs at this point, or at least have the stockpile diminished to a degree where they have to use those. I wonder if we'll see SCUDs at some point

BTW, Kh-22 were the weapon used to take out Keflavik airbase in "Red Storm Rising" if I recall correctly..

[paxromana]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

BTW, Kh-22 were the weapon used to take out Keflavik airbase in "Red Storm Rising" if I recall correctly..

I don't suppose there were many multi-storey residential blocks around Keflavik to get in the way of their ballistic trajectories or confuse their obsolete radars!

[Grigb]

Interesting development. Yesterday Chairman of the Donetsk Supreme Council Pushilin published decree creating commission for approval of humanitarian goods. Only licensed companies will be able to import such goods after submitting formal requests for approval. Trick is that in LDNR drones, personal armor, medical supplies, comms and so on are counted as humanitarian goods.

Basically, Putin is putting uncontrolled volunteer non kinetic war supplies under official RU control. In RU it usually means those who are not loyal to RU officials will be cut off from supplies. But there are no any un loyal volunteers anymore. They were dealt with already. There are only those who are displeased with Putin "softer" approach to UKR (Tyra and Azov exchange scandals).

Not only Putin forcing nat propagandists to use softer rhetoric toward UKR, he is also preparing to pull the war supply plug from hardcore LDNR.  

[FancyCat]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Clearly that's what he's been hoping for since March, but it doesn't seem very likely.

Strategically Russia seems to be in a similar position as it was operationally around Kyiv.  Clearly the current plan isn't working, but nobody can come up with an alternative that leads to success.  So they keep on doing the same thing and hoping for a different result.  Eventually the "same thing" is no longer feasible and a hard choice has to be made from an even weaker position.  It's a really stupid way to go about things.

In the case of Kyiv the Russians kept up the assault even though they knew damned well it wouldn't result in taking Kyiv.  They hoped it could at least be useful in forcing Ukraine to surrender, but in the end they weakened themselves so much that they had to retreat.

In the strategic situation we have now, Russia needs hundreds of thousands of new soldiers and associated equipment to have any hope of squashing Ukraine's conventional military capacity.  But that requires mobilization and mobilization is not something Putin thinks is viable.  This is leading to the military continuing to grind itself into the ground without doing much to improve the overall situation.  The evidence that this strategy can't last much longer is all over the battlefield, yet Russia keeps on doing the same old, same old.  Not too long from now Ukraine is going to force Russia to change its strategy.  What happens at that point is going to be very interesting!

Steve

I should rightfully apologize to all Ukrainians, I had earlier said that the West is in the driver’s seat, with Putin responding….ehh, I think I’m actually quite wrong. Right now, more than Putin, more than the West, it is clearly Ukraine in the driver’s seat, and who all eyes need to be fixed for the next stages of the war. I had mentioned before that in my opinion, time is not firmly on Ukraine’s side, and I still think that is true, and for those same reasons as previously, mainly that the West remains a reactionary force in the conflict (for example, the weapon exchanges really boil down to Ukraine asking for something, suffering, and then the west hands it over), and Russia looks increasingly unable to do much of any offensive action, whether or not Russia keeps pushing or stops, comes down to exactly what Ukraine’s offensive potential really is.

Up until now, Ukraine has only conducted local offensives, or shown capability for taking small amounts of territory, and so far seems unable to make conclusive strokes that Russia can’t counter  somewhat at least. Ukrainian artillery is important, but same as Russian artillery, it can’t take land. Whether or not Russia holds, plenty has been said why and why not it’s viable, but really, at this point, the biggest question to answering the ability for Russia to remain in the war long-term, is now dependent on Ukraine illustrating offensive capability.

if Ukraine cannot conduct offensives on a large-scale potential, we need to throw out I think a lot of assumptions about Russian longevity in a WWI type conflict where infantry and counters and multipliers for infantry remain the base for offensive and defensive action. What do I mean? For example, the mechanized unit that crossed into Davydiv Brid that got beat up by Russian air power, and all the examples of Russian mechanized spearheads without accompanying infantry that got bogged down, unless Ukraine somehow figures out a way for mechanized units not to get wrecked by air power (those Gepards have not proven themselves yet and as far as I can tell, nothing Ukraine has Soviet wise existing as proved able to counter and NATO don’t got jack either relying on airpower), or Russia gets more infantry to facilitate mechanized movement (might be time to say not happening) effectively means infantry need to lead first. So first off, both Russia and Ukraine are unable to utilize armor or fast moving spearheads. 
Next, air power, neither Russia or Ukraine has the capability to knock the other Air Force out of the sky, and so aside from safe zones out of the frontlines, aircraft will on both sides retain the ability to blunt offensive action. 

Artillery, I mean that is the killer of infantry, I don’t have much to say except we might need to review WWI, as both sides will use artillery to disrupt enemy groupings, and despite superior Ukrainian artillery, Russia still has a lot more artillery and with basically air power not a massive factor in reducing enemy groupings in the rear, it looks a lot more WWI to me in a sense.

Unless Ukraine gets F-16s and the U.S gives it substantial training in SEAD, or Ukrainian artillery can effectively destroy Russian artillery in a given sector for offensive actions, it’s pretty WWI like right now. Ukraine may need to decide for offensive action, that gathering mass of the superior artillery is required, but that certainly opens possibilities for Russian search and destroy operations, and opening up vulnerabilities in other sectors for Russian forward movement.

Or maybe Ukraine has a armored reserve waiting to be unleashed at the right moment, but I still dunno how Ukraine prevents Russian artillery from disrupting this, or air attacks forcing them from the field. 

might be best to state I know nothing of military matters, so if I’m wrong, I will be the first to agree with you. If Russian forces cannot collapse due to Ukrainian inability to exploit openings in the front with mechanized units, and sure, Russian artillery might be reduced to conserving ammo for countering Ukrainian offensive actions, but that still means Russia looks pretty able to stop a Ukrainian offensive or slow it to a crawl, which not only enables Russia to reinforce, but conduct countering actions on other sections, and preventing any morale loss from spreading, a key requirement for collapse, and while manpower wise, Ukraine can eventually outclass Russia due to lack of mobilization, we need to seriously consider that NATO is not equipped for supplying for a grinding, attritional warfare with large numbers of infantry. That is what, one-two years of waiting for NATO ramp up? Russia might actually be able to mobilize and certainly Russia has enough equipment from existing stocks to equip them somewhat, but probably better than Ukraine. 

And I’ll repeat again my belief, Ukraine must take Kherson as soon as possible. No ifs, no but “ time is on their side”, Ukraine has not shown offensive capability to retake territory, and victory, either a short term end of war collapse of Russian forces or long term grinding victory is not going to occur if Russia thinks it can keep what it occupies, and Kherson remains the heart of that thinking. Ukraine retakes Kherson, the collapse of the Russian army will be far closer than every ammo dump burning in Donbas. Retake Kherson and Crimea will panic, and you spur more dissent in Russia than any number of bodies arriving from Ukraine.

[Grigb]

Regarding NATO vs RU Arty ammo issues from Myrakhovsky

Quote

Shots for 155 mm howitzer 155/L23 can be used in 155/L39 and 155/L52, and vice versa. That is, they have complete interchangeable ballistic solutions in 155 mm caliber.

In the armed forces of the Russian Federation, there is a un-unification of ammunition in 152 mm caliber, which complicates the supply of ammunition to troops, and creates incompatible ballistic solutions.

After the adoption of the 152-mm gun 2A88, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will have 4 (!) modified 152-mm ballistic solutions:
ML-20/D-20/2A33;
2A64/2A65;
2A36/2A37;
2A88/2A89.