How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Looks like RU made false flag op

Quote

A new attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline: in the Bryansk region

The fact of the attack on the infrastructure facility of Transneft Druzhba JSC - the Novozybkov oil pumping station (NPS) of the Bryansk District Administration of the Druzhba oil pipeline — on the night of Friday, June 24, was confirmed.

According to reports, a fragmentation-type ammunition was dropped from a drone on the NPC. The pumping station building was damaged, tanks on the territory of the NPS were cut by fragments.

[Aragorn2002]

11 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

A major list of Majors for you.

Major Nikolai Bugay (or Buhai as @Haiduk writes below), Mi-35 pilot:

Major Alexander Shevstov, helicopter unit:

Major Vladimir Efremov:

Major Roman Kuznetsov, battalion commander, 39th Motor Rifle Brigade:

 

Keep them coming. And going.

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

There are hardly any of them and the program has been riddled with problems.

I find this to be highly dubious.

Or absolute desperation?

Next thing we'll see are some of the alleged 20 T-14 Armata's being towed away by Ukrainian Tractors!

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

There are hardly any of them and the program has been riddled with problems.

I find this to be highly dubious.

I wouldn't be too surprised if they just flew one barely inside occupied Ukrainian territory so they could say they did for propaganda purposes...

Still, I wonder if any of the pilots are disgruntled enough that an offer of a couple million dollars and safe passage to a more or less neutral country (say, Thailand or Costa Rica, maybe) might convince them to defect: Operation Moolah 2.0, if you will. It would be nice if an intact Su-57 somehow ended up in a hangar somewhere outside Tonopah as a result of all this...

[paxromana]

Actually, I know that the changeover from 4 man to three man tank crews (T-64 onwards) was allegedly a major maintenance problem for the Pact ... fewer crew to do the same amount of routine maintenance to prevent the too soon need for major repairs ... in a society where there were too few mechanics and techs to cope with the demands of even the civilian sector, let alone the military ...

But consider the high tech T-14 ... all that automation and (for Russia) cutting edge tech, perhaps an order of magnitude more than that of the T-90 ... and a three man crew of barely trained conscripts or contract soldiers bullied and extorted by their own officers and wider society ...

How many klicks would it be likely to make down the road before it breaks down and is abandoned?

Paper ... nah ... Soggy Tissue Paper ... Tiger or not?

[CAZmaj]

36 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

I wouldn't be too surprised if they just flew one barely inside occupied Ukrainian territory so they could say they did for propaganda purposes...

Still, I wonder if any of the pilots are disgruntled enough that an offer of a couple million dollars and safe passage to a more or less neutral country (say, Thailand or Costa Rica, maybe) might convince them to defect: Operation Moolah 2.0, if you will. It would be nice if an intact Su-57 somehow ended up in a hangar somewhere outside Tonopah as a result of all this...

The pilot's family stays in Russia as a hostage

[paxromana]

1 minute ago, CAZmaj said:

The pilot's family stays in Russia as a hostage

Ah. But how much does the Pilot love his wife? Or parents?

[Grigb]

RU started to feel pain of NATO Arty

Quote

Disturbing news is coming from the front. The AFU began hunting for Russian headquarters. Before that, they tried to hit HQs with Soviet barrel artillery, but it turned out direct hits were extremely rare. And the "Tochkas" and "Tornadoes" were shot down by the Russian air defense on approach. 

With the delivery of Western artillery systems, everything has changed. The accuracy of shooting has increased dramatically. Apparently, Excalibur shells and Western artillery crews appeared at the front after all.

Now we will have to disperse the equipment, and control our troops from the deep dugouts. Actually, this is exactly what the Soviet instructions were teaching.

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Grigb

[Taranis]

"Rain" of Russian missiles in northern and western Ukraine

↓"At least 1 killed as result of massive missile strike in Zhytomyr region. 24 missiles were launched from Belarus"

https://t.me/babel/18874

 

↓"At least 20 missiles were launched at Desna village in Chernihiv region and 6 missiles were launched at Yavoriv in Lviv region, 2 were shot down by air defense. 4 people wounded"

https://t.me/babel/18875

 

[Taranis]

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, morning report, 25 June 2022:
Kharkiv area :
"Ukrainian military repelled attack of Russians saboteur group near Udy, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/1939

 

Sievierodonetsk area :
"Russian forces conducted assault actions at Metyolkine, Syrotyne and Voronove, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/1944

Bakhmut/Popasna area :
"At Bakhmut direction Ukrainian military repelled Russian offensive at Volodymyrivka-Pokrovske direction. Ongoing battle at Pylypchatyne - Pokrovske. At Roty-Vershyna direction Russian forces advanced 1 kilometer, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/1945

Donetsk area :
"Russian forces attempted to advance and seize part of the road Yasynuvata-Kostyantynivka, and at Vasylivka-Kamianka direction, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/1946

Kherson area :
"Russian army attempted to advance at Potyomkyne-Vysokopillia direction in Kherson region, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/1947

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

There are hardly any of them and the program has been riddled with problems.

I find this to be highly dubious.

I agree, though the thought they might be used over Russian territory might be accurate.

On the one hand, using a new platform in real wartime conditions is the best way to find out what you really have.  On the other hand, maybe Russia doesn't really want to know

More seriously, Russia can not risk one of its wonder weapons (or to use your moniker, V weapon) falling flat on its face. When the US lost a F-117 in the Balkans it was a big story and I'm sure the Russian media was absolutely giddy about it.  Does Russia really want to risk something like that?  The combat value of the handful of fighters have to offer doesn't seem worth a serious use.

Steve

[Taranis]

UKR T-64 (BV?)

[paxromana]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

UKR T-64 (BV?)

But ... but ... all Ukranian Tanks have been destroyed, what, two or three times over!

[Haiduk]

Russians at the morning launched about 60 surface-surface and air-surface missiles on Ukrainian territory. This is one of largest missile attacks for the last time. Most heavy was an attack on Zhytomyr oblast - 30 missiles form Belarus territory (ground launchers and aviation). 10 of them were intercepted by AD, but other struck some military objects. On this time theris a report 1 servoceman KIA, 1 WIA. 

20 missiles struk training center Desna in Chernihiv oblast. Also form ground launchers and aviation. Reportedly no casualties for present time, but infrastructure was significantly damaged. Previous missle strike on Desna center on 17th of May killed 87 servicemen. All they were crews being trained for western 155mm artillery. After previous missile strikes on barracks, which took away several hundreds of lives high command ordered to disperse personnel no more 20 servicemen in one group. But in that day all re-trained artillerists gathered to receive sertificates and celebtrating this. They stayed in barrack just on one night and Iskander struck it. After this reportedly Desna officer in the rank of colonel was arrested by SBU, because he was a traitor and gave information to Russian side about gathering of personnel in the building. 

Also about dozen missiles, probably Kalibr, were launched at Yavoriv training and logistic center in L'viv oblast.  Four missiles were intercepted (two over Khmelnitskyi oblast, two over L'viv oblast) but several hit own targets.

 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Video about reusing captured Russian equipment:

https://www.rferl.org/a/btr-ukraine-russia-apc-personnel-carrier-captured-repaired-kharkiv/31913809.html

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

20 missiles struk training center Desna in Chernihiv oblast. Also form ground launchers and aviation. Reportedly no casualties for present time, but infrastructure was significantly damaged. Previous missle strike on Desna center on 17th of May killed 87 servicemen. All they were crews being trained for western 155mm artillery. After previous missile strikes on barracks, which took away several hundreds of lives high command ordered to disperse personnel no more 20 servicemen in one group. But in that day all re-trained artillerists gathered to receive sertificates and celebtrating this. They stayed in barrack just on one night and Iskander struck it. After this reportedly Desna officer in the rank of colonel was arrested by SBU, because he was a traitor and gave information to Russian side about gathering of personnel in the building. 

Damn. I am afraid with strike this large we will soon hear about more casualties, especially that they attacked at night. First Desna strike was also reported as relatively minor for a day or two.

First official video of HIMARS in UKR service. Nice X Files vibes.

 

[Grigb]

RU is escalating rhetoric due to Kaliningrad "blockade" (From RU point of view any restriction is a blockade cause no untermensch can dictate RU ubermacht anything)

London will be first

Quote

The State Duma proposed to start the third World War with a blow to London

London risks becoming the first city to be bombed in the event of a new world war if the blockade of Kaliningrad leads to such a large-scale escalation. Andrey Gurulev, a member of the State Duma Committee on Defense, said this, speaking on Russian television, writes SkyNews.

According to the ex-deputy commander of the Southern Military District, under the scenario of a new war, Russia will act in three stages. At the first stage, Russian troops will destroy the entire grouping of enemy space satellites. On the second, they will disable the entire missile defense system, everywhere and 100%. On the third, they will hit Lodnon, because "the threat to peace comes from the Anglo—Saxons," the deputy believes.

For different audience RU propaganda sends different messages. They are threatening Germans with gas. They cannot threaten UK with gas, so they are threatening it with missile strikes. Ukraine they threaten with actual missile strikes.

I do believe we need to brace for 30 days. Hopefully after that we will be at the final stage on RU territory.

Fun facts - they do not threaten Europe with invasion anymore (only Lithuania). I do not see any propaganda slogans like We will reach Berlin in 3 days, la Manche in a week. Also, they somewhat are avoiding poking finger directly at US. That's all what you need to know about how they themselves assess their own current capabilities. 

 

 

[gnarly]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video about reusing captured Russian equipment:

https://www.rferl.org/a/btr-ukraine-russia-apc-personnel-carrier-captured-repaired-kharkiv/31913809.html

Is he wearing ex-German fatigues (german patch on his arm)?

[Taranis]

24 minutes ago, gnarly said:

Is he wearing ex-German fatigues (german patch on his arm)?

Yes, "German nazi mercenary" 

[AlsatianFelix]

Def Mon just posted a thread of map updates. Quality as usual. But towards the end of the thread is a new look at Russian BTG concentration across the entire front line with calculation of line coverage per BTG. Interesting.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1540651652260265986?s=20&t=shQgnIjdDqpRLhMnWcryBw

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Alexander “Prapor” Pogrebnyak, 5th Separate Infantry Brigade “Oplot,” 1st AK, DNR:

Post on his death says he was “Legion Oplot” 2nd Company commander, but this seems doubtful unless the rank is purely honorary.

 

[Billy Ringo]

With regards to Ukrainian mobilization, don't forget those living in Russian occupied territory.  With an axe, and an axe to grind.  They may not be "soldiers", but they will most likely become more and more disruptive and lethal to Russian military.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Veteran war correspondent Aris Roussinos spent some time with the 'Right Sector' forces in the Horlivka sector, Donetsk front.

https://unherd.com/2022/06/on-the-frontline-with-the-right-sector-militia/

There's a lot of worthy political ('no, we aren't nazis') discussion and human interest which I won't summarize here, but also some military bits:

The steppe landscape of the Donbas region is rippled with folds and gullies; the copses of tall oaks that have taken root in these shallow nooks provide perfect cover for guerrilla war, an archipelago in the endless sea of grass and ripening wheat.

The mortar team have been concealed here for two days, in a tiny salient almost fully encircled by the Russian advance.....

“Our Intelligence found a location with Russian mortar positions and an ammunition dump.... With a quadcopter you can find a position to hit in 20 minutes — but once we fire, it will only take the Russians a couple of minutes to find our position and return fire.”

...the 120mm mortar belches out a dozen rounds in bursts of flame, as the quadcopter operator sits cross-legged in the grass, ordering them to adjust their elevation.... Then it’s time to go: we race to the SUV and drive off at high speed....

The following day, Pedro, who has an ongoing social media feud with mercenaries from the far-Right Russian Wagner Group on the other side of the frontline, in which they threaten to kill each other, would show drone footage of the Russian soldiers in their trenches getting obliterated by his mortar fire on his phone, overlaid with a death metal soundtrack and cry-laughter emojis. Welcome to war in 2022.

"Athena"

Brought up in a Russian-speaking Catholic family in Vinnytsia, the daughter of a surgeon, Athena was a poet and English translator before the war, with a sideline writing essays for American college students. She first volunteered for frontline service at age 18, straight from university....A child prodigy, she was a contestant on the Russian version of Britain’s Brainiest Kid aged 11.

Walking through the long grass and undergrowth of the semi-abandoned village to the local shops with the heavily armed soldiers, to buy energy drinks and ice creams from a pointedly unfriendly shopkeeper, Athena highlighted the eerie atmosphere of dereliction. “It’s weird out here, it’s almost as bad as Detroit,” she said with wonder — Athena had spent a year in a Michigan high school as an exchange student. All from elsewhere in Ukraine, they were fighting among a local population whose loyalty to the nation was not guaranteed, and found it a strange and frustrating experience.

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Alexander “Prapor” Pogrebnyak, 5th Separate Infantry Brigade “Oplot,” 1st AK, DNR:

Post on his death says he was “Legion Oplot” 2nd Company commander, but this seems doubtful unless the rank is purely honorary.

 

In comments people write that in LDPR army you can often see such rank/duty disproportion because of lack of local "officers". Maybe that guy meant Pogrebnyak was company commander in 2014-2015, because according to Peacekeeper database in 2018 he was a mayor in duty of chief of the staff deputy of 5th MRB "Oplot" howitzer battalion. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

50 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Def Mon just posted a thread of map updates. Quality as usual. But towards the end of the thread is a new look at Russian BTG concentration across the entire front line with calculation of line coverage per BTG. Interesting.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1540651652260265986?s=20&t=shQgnIjdDqpRLhMnWcryBw

Nice map, agreed, cheers. To show the content (assuming you want to), simply hit return after you paste the link.

Hmm, where to attack? where to mass for attack (forcing the Russians to blow a gasket redeploying their own forces there)? Hmm, hmm, such a quandary....

Edited June 25, 2022 by LongLeftFlank