How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Regarding Tyra exchange scandal

Tyra is Azov linked civilian volunteer medic.

1. She was captured escaping Mariupol when RU were encircling it (She was not at Azov Steel). It seems in her car there were two kids those parents were killed (I am using RU sources and they are a bit sketchy). RU being RU outright declared that she is Super Evil Nazi who killed those (implied Russian) kid's parents to use kids as means for escape. They basically sentenced her for a brutal death. 
2. What happened next is not clear but it appears a RU Chechen Mobster paid dozens of millions rubles to somebody higher up to make an exchange for his son who was in Ukraine. I do not know who came up with idea of exchanging Tyra but it was a brilliant move for UKR and extremely bad for RU. But RU corrupt guys being corrupt were dumb enough to think only about money probably because they hoped UKR will  be quiet about exchange. 
3. UKR guys brilliantly declared that Tyra was exchanged but did not provide any serious proof.
4. RU nationalists were flabbergasted at the news that RU government decided to release Super Evil Nazi
5. RU journalists started asking their inside contacts about what is going on. They got semi-official reply calm down, nothing happened Tyra is still locked up.
6. UKR closed the trap by releasing video of Tyra at home.
7. RU journalists were extremely flabbergasted and released info that there was in fact exchange but not the official one but corrupt exchange for son of Chechen mobster. 
8. Following spontaneous combustion of nationalists butts I think was seen from Mars.
9. it was so serious that Chechen mobster made video declaring allegations are fake, his sone is in Ukraine and all these journalists are at risk unless stop spreading all these lies. He literally called female journalist and threatened her.
10.  It did not help because nobody believed it. On the contrary it made things worse because not only was the exchange corrupt it looked like RU got nothing back, UKR untermensch easily screwed RU ubermensch. It is bad to be corrupt but much worse is to be corrupt loser who lost to despicable Ukrainians!
11. Sensing big scandal RU government being RU government sent their propagandist to deal with the problem. And as you can expect from RU they managed to make it even worse because they basically said F*ck You, Nobody, it is none of you business, just shut up and go back to your peasant work. As result Nationalist combustions became so strong that had they real turrets they would easily win turret throwing competition.  

Yes, sometimes it feels like I am watching Death of Stalin 2 as TV reality show.

Anyway, this scandal presented RU nationalist with huge problem how to explain what they just saw. It is not about corruption. It is about Propaganda and Moral High Group nationalist believed they had. The first explanation is obvious - RU government are pizdabols who cynically lied about Tyra. Given nationalist are on Glorious Crusade to Kill All Nazis the idea that the woman they were about to brutally kill is not Super Evil Nazi is scary. What else Ru government was lying about? The whole Glorious Crusade with a lot of blood spilled suddenly started to look very miserable.

So, nationalists declared a second explanation - conspiracy that RU governments are in secret deal with UKR government. It saves Glorious Crusade but throw RU government under the bus - for RU helping Nazis is equivalent of being Nazi. Nationalists just got perfect excuse to refrain from further activities helping RU government. 

RU government urgently needs something to district people from very bad thoughts about Tyra exchange.

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

UA bombed Russian oil refinery. Good for them!

 

Good!

Murz rant is interesting because while it is captain obvious description it is coming from enemy mouth. BTW pay attention to what he want to say about RU AA level of competency.

Quote

"Such things, dudes. Oil refainory was exploded"
This morning, the APU sent a warm, literally and figuratively, greetings to our amazing [euphemism for swearing] people who talk about how they crack "These "Bayraktars" like nuts." By clicking on the link, you can see how the Bayraktar UAV, which successfully overcame the Russian air defense in the Donbass and its surroundings, used as a projectile aircraft, crashes into the Novoshakhtinsky oil refinery, causing a notable fire.

Well,let's talk about "How it was done?".

1. Ukraine's allies do not just regularly fly around the region with their "Global Hawks", they are engaged in electronic intelligence. In combination with satellite reconnaissance, this data gives them a map of the location of actively operating Russian air defense systems every time.

2. Every aircraft, including a drone of any size, has such an important technical parameter as the "effective scattering area" or EPR. This refers to the scattering of signals from air defense radars. This value determines at what distance which air defense system will be able to detect this device. The more radio-transparent materials there are in the design, the less EPR, the closer the device needs to fly up to the air defense complex in order to be detected. No matter how often our "military experts" discussed Bayraktars, no one even considered the issue of its frontal EPR. [I told you they are simply dumb and incompetent. It is not a bug, it is a feature of The System because dumb and incompetent tend to be more loyal to the regime]

3. Having established where and which Russian air defense systems are located, the enemy (knowing visibility of the  "Bayraktars" by testing it on similar equipment inherited from the USSR) without difficult determined exact location of air defense systems and the terrain "dead zones" for passage at low altitude to our rear of this type of drones.

4. All expensive optics and electronics are removed from the Bayraktar, which are then used to repair other machines, leaving the engine, fuel, flight controller with navigation system and an improvised warhead in place of the electron-optical "egg". This further reduces the EPR of the machine. Most likely, it is not the original Turkish drone that is used at all, but a Ukrainian-made airframe (fortunately [for UKR] there have never been any problems, if there is money, with working on the air composites required in this case) on which the motor and flight controller are put, and it is possible that the "flight device-pilot" is simply "Pixhawk CUBE" from Ali-express.

5. A flight program is entered into the flight controller of the device, with all the necessary changes in course and altitude, including the final dive, after which the device is launched in fully autonomous mode, "in radio silence mode", which deprives our radio intelligence posts of the ability to detect the board by telemetry signals or a video stream broadcast to the ground. Actually, the homemade photo scout that fell in February in Belarus flew the same way, the story that they tried to shoot him down and shot him down in 40 minutes, which he walked from the border to the center of the landfill, is for suckers. He fell then from icing, of course, when, circling over the target, creating a photopanorama, he got into the clouds. Because it was February. And now it's June, and such luck [for us] has not happened.

Such things, Mr. "Bayraktar, are a fairly simple target" Borisov the Deputy Prime Minister.

Such things.

[Grigb]

Not to overload with posts I will summarize last comments from "civilian Girkin"

• Kazakhstan is moving away from RU to Turkey. But Kazakhstan for RU is a bridge to other Asian previous USSR republics (he implies that RU influence over the whole region is being slowly severed and Turkey is growing)
• The only valuable endgame for Moscow now is for "old" Europe to push Ukraine for peace deal on Moscow terms. For that Moscow will use gas blackmailing to a full extent, prepare for full cut off.

But the next one I will quote in full

Quote

The dollar continues to decline. Now it has dropped below 53 rubles per dollar.

Raiffeisenbank announced that a decrease in the dollar exchange rate by 1 ruble means that the budget receives about 170 billion rubles in annual terms. If so, then since the beginning of the special operation, the budget has "lost weight" by more than 4 trillion rubles.

Let me remind you that according to the law on the budget for 2022, budget revenues are planned in the amount of 25 trillion rubles, expenses - 23.7 trillion rubles. It is already clear that with such current indicators, the budget is in deficit.

At the same time, the underlying cause of the problems remains the same - sanctions continue to put pressure on the Russian economy, and the ruble exchange rate is only the most obvious part of what is happening.

 

[hcrof]

Thanks Grigb, really interesting insights! Do you think there is a genuine shift in the narrative on the Russian side, or is it still just the usual grumbling we have heard from the start?

[Taranis]

"Russian forces attempting to gain full control over Sieverodonetsk, to block Ukrainian military near Borivske and Voronove, battles ongoing, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/1905

 

"At Myronivka-Semyhiria direction Ukrainian military repelled an assault towards Vuhlehirska power station, also repelled an attack at Molodizhne-Katerynivka direction, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report" (Note : Respectively at the western and eastern base of the Popasna salient)
https://t.me/lumsrc/1906

Edited June 22, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Not to overload with posts I will summarize last comments from "civilian Girkin"

• Kazakhstan is moving away from RU to Turkey. But Kazakhstan for RU is a bridge to other Asian previous USSR republics (he implies that RU influence over the whole region is being slowly severed and Turkey is growing)
• The only valuable endgame for Moscow now is for "old" Europe to push Ukraine for peace deal on Moscow terms. For that Moscow will use gas blackmailing to a full extent, prepare for full cut off.

But the next one I will quote in full

 

That seems to be quite detached from reality. I'm under the impression that even Germans have come to terms with facts and are more and more pissed off by RU behavior, rather than being frightened by them. Cutting the gas will stop some industries, and hurt your average consumer's wallet, but that's it. After it happens, RU will have zero leverage left. The sooner it happens the better.

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Thanks Grigb, really interesting insights! Do you think there is a genuine shift in the narrative on the Russian side, or is it still just the usual grumbling we have heard from the start?

Definity a shift. Too much heat in conversation. Too much hothead reactions. The exchange itself is not a big deal. It is just a match (brilliantly played though by UKR). War exposed internal contradictions between RU government which uses nationalist rhetoric for its own means and significant portion of RU public for whom it is all real.

If RU would be winning that would not matter much but they are not really winning. So, everybody is too emotional now, too unforgiving.

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

That seems to be quite detached from reality. I'm under the impression that even Germans have come to terms with facts and are more and more pissed off by RU behavior, rather than being frightened by them. Cutting the gas will stop some industries, and hurt your average consumer's wallet, but that's it. After it happens, RU will have zero leverage left. The sooner it happens the better.

Everything he is saying is from an internal RU point of view which is indeed detached from reality. There would not be any war or Putin himself if they would not live in an imaginary world. But it is also my inaccuracy in translation - looks like he is saying it from RU government point of view.

Remember Hitler delusions about Army Wenk? Gas is what RU has so most likely it is what they are going use and hope for the best.

I am seeing RU government issued secret propaganda directives to soften rhetoric regarding UKR soldiers (like refrain from calling them ukroscum). Looks like they are pushing narrative not all Ukrainians are Nazis, there are misguided but good ones we can deal with. They are preparing ground for a peace deal, but they need leverage to ensure that terms are not bad for them. 

So, gas it is. But most likely just for one month or something. Then offer of peace deal for restoration of gas supply.

[Huba]

23 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Everything he is saying is from an internal RU point of view which is indeed detached from reality. There would not be any war or Putin himself if they would not live in an imaginary world. But it is also my inaccuracy in translation - looks like he is saying it from RU government point of view.

Remember Hitler delusions about Army Wenk? Gas is what RU has so most likely it is what they are going use and hope for the best.

I am seeing RU government issued secret propaganda directives to soften rhetoric regarding UKR soldiers (like refrain from calling them ukroscum). Looks like they are pushing narrative not all Ukrainians are Nazis, there are misguided but good ones we can deal with. They are preparing ground for a peace deal, but they need leverage to ensure that terms are not bad for them. 

So, gas it is. But most likely just for one month or something. Then offer of peace deal for restoration of gas supply.

I remember RU hinted that a solution to "technical problems" with Nordstream1 was to use Nordstream2, they are indeed trying to leverage the gas connection. After the declarations made in Kyiv last week, I don't believe that Old Europe would budge though.

It is not that Germany (no attempt at bashing at all, just that it is the biggest consumer of RU gas and would be most affected, so it's the best example) would freeze in winter due to lack of gas, it would affect the industry mostly. Less than 50% of German gas comes from RU, rest is NL or NO. In 2021, buildings (residential, services, and agriculture) accounted for 44% of the gas consumption; this is trailed by the industrial (30%) and power sectors (21%)(link). Given that the hole in deliveries can be partially offset with increased imports from remaining sources, and even LNG through Poland if need be, lack of RU gas wouldn't be the end of the world.

What I can't imagine though is that if RU cut the gas completely, German (or any other, except maybe HU) gov would allow itself to be humiliated into visibly giving any concessions to get the supplies back. Once those supplies are cut, they remain cut for the foreseeable future.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

Alexey Khlopotov (Gur Khan) had to give up ownership of his blog

https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2022/06/blog-post_7.html
 

Quote

Due to the blocking of the blog "Gur Khan attacks!" (Domain: gurkhan.blogspot.com; IP: 74.125.29.132) 

on the territory of the Russian Federation, carried out on June 8, 2022 by decision of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation dated June 6, 2022 No. 27-31-2022 / ID 7706-22, threats to personal security, as well as administrative or criminal prosecution related to personal civil position, by me, Khlopotov Alexey Yuryevich, a difficult decision was made to part with the blog that I had been running for more than 10 years. This is my last post on it. I officially inform all interested parties that I have sold this blog and all rights associated with it to a US citizen (the terms and details of the transaction are a trade secret). From now on, I am no longer its owner or host. From now on, this blog can in no way be associated with me. I notify that this blog is located on the servers of the American company Google, operated and operated from within the United States. I do not accept any claims regarding its content / content. I believe that "dark times" are not forever. 

 

[Grigb]

44 minutes ago, Huba said:

What I can't imagine though is that if RU cut the gas completely, German (or any other, except maybe HU) gov would allow itself to be humiliated into visibly giving any concessions to get the supplies back. Once those supplies are cut, they remain cut for the foreseeable future.

That's why I suspect soon RU will give UKR all they've got to create impression that UKR is losing so it will be better for everybody to accept Peace Deal. Current push may be the beginning of it.

[poesel]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

I remember RU hinted that a solution to "technical problems" with Nordstream1 was to use Nordstream2, they are indeed trying to leverage the gas connection.

Russia has cut gas delivery by 60%. They claim it is due to some faulty compressor pump. There is a replacement, but it's in Canada and falls under the sanctions. Nobody buys this story and touching NS2 is political suicide at this point in time, so that won't happen.

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is not that Germany (no attempt at bashing at all, just that it is the biggest consumer of RU gas and would be most affected, so it's the best example) would freeze in winter due to lack of gas, it would affect the industry mostly. 

That is correct. There is a law that home use is prioritized, so nobody will freeze. But there is an ongoing discussion if landlords could lower the minimum temperature from 20 to 18 °C (won't happen, but they are talking). But the effect on the industry would be quite harsh - depending on which branch.
There will be a law that creates auctions for the industry to sell off unused gas. The hope is to create further incentives to save if price alone isn't enough.

So nobody will die if Russia cuts off gas, but it will be very expensive for the country. We will pay dearly for the mistakes of the past, and everyone is very well aware of it.

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

Once those supplies are cut, they remain cut for the foreseeable future.

Yes. The only way that gas deliveries will start again would be to compensate for Ukrainian damages (that is, Germany buys Russian gas and transfers the money to Ukraine to pay off Russian debts. I guess something like that will eventually happen (to clarify: with eventually I mean after Ukraine wins, the Russian regime fell or 30 years - whichever comes first)).

[Beleg85]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh.  I read "the head of the Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces" and really didn't need to read anything else, because it says it all!  This is like putting the head of the cheerleading squad in for the coach.  Not a good sign!

Yes. However I wouldn't  write off Zhidko. Some time ago there was an article from PL paper military press posted on one of the forums that did some deep dive inside Russian generalship, and there was sum up:

-he is a senior staff officer rather than line, and reportedly talented organizer (could mean different things in RU army)

-He did command large military units, serving as "cheerleader coach" only recently. In Donbas operation Dvornikov held senior post, but being a drunkard and rather dumb (this is rumour, but let's face it- entirely believable judging by photos) he was being given Zhidko as advisor.

-There was a rumour Russian breakout from Crimea was planned by his staff in details. And this was militarly very well executed operation, whatever one say about possible Ukrainian treason.

-and curious thing, surname suggest he is ethnic Ukrainian (but born in RU Far East).

Of course that not mean Russians will succeed in Donbas, but they may have barely competent commander now.

@Grigb

very interesting intake about Tyra, I was wandering why so many Z followers suddenly became so fixated on her. Do you know the name of this Chechen mobster?

On another note, here there is video of slow, lonely Bayraktar (Edited: it could alternativelly be domestically made PD-2 kamikaze drone) flying into Russian rafinery just like that. Because he can:

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[akd]

$9,000 dollar Chinese drone.  Good exchange.  China supplies Ukraine with weapons (via Alibaba).

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

@Grigb

very interesting intake about Tyra, I was wandering why so many Z followers suddenly became so fixated on her. Do you know the name of this Chechen mobster?

His name Murad Saidov. He is Deputy Representative of the Head of Chechnya in Crimea and Sevastopol

 

His son Adam Saidov aka Gritsenko is a citizen of Ukraine.

He is not RU fighter or even POW. The guy was living in Ukraine and as I understood tried to help with humanitarian help. Rumors had it that he simply rejected the offer to come to RU. That adds further insult to nationalists' injury because they guy not only did not fight for RU it rejected RU like damned liberal traitor.

Who would expect a twist like this?

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

I remember RU hinted that a solution to "technical problems" with Nordstream1 was to use Nordstream2, they are indeed trying to leverage the gas connection. After the declarations made in Kyiv last week, I don't believe that Old Europe would budge though.

It is not that Germany (no attempt at bashing at all, just that it is the biggest consumer of RU gas and would be most affected, so it's the best example) would freeze in winter due to lack of gas, it would affect the industry mostly. Less than 50% of German gas comes from RU, rest is NL or NO. In 2021, buildings (residential, services, and agriculture) accounted for 44% of the gas consumption; this is trailed by the industrial (30%) and power sectors (21%)(link). Given that the hole in deliveries can be partially offset with increased imports from remaining sources, and even LNG through Poland if need be, lack of RU gas wouldn't be the end of the world.

What I can't imagine though is that if RU cut the gas completely, German (or any other, except maybe HU) gov would allow itself to be humiliated into visibly giving any concessions to get the supplies back. Once those supplies are cut, they remain cut for the foreseeable future.

Let them cut their damned gas. I'm sure alternatives will turn up. And it's a good lesson to NEVER rely on Russians again.

[Taranis]

Short video about the Nextgen CAESAR (CAESAR Mk2) : A little off-topic because not in UKR service but interesting to watch (2 minutes)
→ put subtitle and autotranslation

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

38 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Short video about the Nextgen CAESAR (CAESAR Mk2) : A little off-topic because not in UKR service but interesting to watch (2 minutes)
→ put subtitle and autotranslation

 

Poland once has the SPG program called "Kryl", to develop truck-based gun for AMV-based and other lighter brigades. It is frozen at the moment, with focus on Krabs for heavy units. Assuming the niche still exists, I wonder if CAESAR or similar solution would be a right choice. 

CAESAR's main advantage compared to something like Archer or Zuzana seems to be the light weight which enables air-mobility, and perhaps lower cost. OTOH RoF and shoot and scoot ability is lower, which makes it a bit more susceptible to CB. And it can't be NBC protected given that crew has to disembark to fire, if anyone cares about that anymore. For now our AMV brigades use Dana's which and seem to be happy with those, so Zuzana would be a natural successor. 

As a side note, somebody pointed out that at the end of the war Ukrainian army will be in unique position to have battle-tested  a great number of comparable NATO artillery pieces. The lessons learned and comparisons made will be really interesting and having a particular system tested there will be quite an advantage for any future sales.

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

This is a bit off topic, but since there's so much focus on the CAESARs now...

Was there any truck-mounted artillery in WW2? If no, why not?

Seems like a pretty obvious idea, but I've only ever seen WW2 rocket launchers mounted on truck chassis.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Taranis]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Poland once has the SPG program called "Kryl", to develop truck-based gun for AMV-based and other lighter brigades. It is frozen at the moment, with focus on Krabs for heavy units. Assuming the niche still exists, I wonder if CAESAR or similar solution would be a right choice. 

CAESAR's main advantage compared to something like Archer or Zuzana seems to be the light weight which enables air-mobility, and perhaps lower cost. OTOH RoF and shoot and scoot ability is lower, which makes it a bit more susceptible to CB. And it can't be NBC protected given that crew has to disembark to fire, if anyone cares about that anymore. For now our AMV brigades use Dana's which and seem to be happy with those, so Zuzana would be a natural successor. 

As a side note, somebody pointed out that at the end of the war Ukrainian army will be in unique position to have battle-tested  a great number of comparable NATO artillery pieces. The lessons learned and comparisons made will be really interesting when made public. I'd thought that at after the war, having a particular system tested there will be quite an advantage for any future sales.

 

 

 

I think the concentration of the Polish army on the Krab is the most consistent given the "front line" position against the Russians. As you say, the strength of the CAESAR is its mobility and air mobility (air transport) which makes it an ideal weapon for an Expeditionary Force like France (Rapid Action Force mentality) or other far Western countries in the role that they would have to play. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians because it is at home that it happens but indeed the Western equipment will show their potential and it will have an impact on the sale of equipment after the war (and even already when we look at the purchases of CAESAR by Lithuania) . Conversely for the Russians, it will not be good for them, remember the T-72 after Iraq in '91 (the latest versions had to be renamed T-90)

[Battlefront.com]

More thanks from me to Grigb for the insights into the Tyra scandal.  I've seen parts of it and "filled in the blanks" with knowledge of how these sorts of things work, but you've put solid details in place of those assumptions.  I like that much better

With my historian hat, let me outline why this seemingly small incident is likely hugely important for the course of the war and perhaps Russia as a nation state.  Yes, this scandal has that sort of feel to it.

Look at the Euromaidan movement.  How did that come about?  Years (tens if not hundreds of years) of pressure building up to the point where Yanukovych felt he had to put in an application for EU Association Agreement.  When it came to signing it, though, he backed down with all kinds of excuses.  This triggered the massive Euromaidan protests.

One seemingly small event + lots of built up pressure = regime threat

Then we have the loss of power for Yanukovych.  In this case a highly pressurized situation that was getting worse by the day.  Disappearances, arrests, beatings, tortures, even likely a couple of murders by Yanukovych thugs didn't change things dramatically.  What it did do was narrow Yanukovych's options and decreased the chances that he was going to come out of it intact.  Then Russian snipers came in and that triggered the events that was one push too many and it led directly to Yanukovych being thrown out of power.  If the snipers hadn't come into play, something else probably would have sooner rather than later.  The pressure was just too big by that point for things to go back to "normal".

The point here is that seemingly small things from the day-to-day perspective can be, in hindsight, trigger events.  The more you know about what's going on behind the scenes, the better chance you have of identifying key moments as they happen vs. looking back on it after.

I don't think the Tyra scandal itself will do anything huge to Putin's regime or to the war, but Putin just lost a whole lot of remaining maneuver room.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is a bit off topic, but since there's so much focus on the CAESARs now...

Was there any truck-mounted artillery in WW2? If no, why not?

Seems like a pretty obvious idea, but I've only ever seen WW2 rocket launchers mounted on truck chassis.

There were a number of medium caliber guns put on trucks, but mostly for AA work.  There were 75mm howitzers mounted on halftracks and 8x8 armored cars, but they were mostly intended for direct support work rather than indirect fire.

Steve

[dan/california]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

While I do not have experience with RU Navy historically it is the most screwed up RU force. It is constant embarrassment for RU. 

Regarding the current RU push - it needs to be seen in context of two ongoing UKR political victories. RU is suffering noticeable and highly embarrassing cracks in Donbass collaborators morale due to Donetsk shelling. Also, RU is suffering noticeable cracks in RU nationalist morale and loyalty due to the ongoing Tyra exchange scandal.

Two Pressure Cookers (Donetsk area and RU home) started to display the first cracks and that greatly unnerves RU command. They desperately need something to mask their political failures.

It does not mean both cracks will lead to open rebellion, but it does mean that the human base of RU is shrinking and UKR is growing because indifferent RU activists are good for Ukraine.

For US guys, it is like hardcore voters are getting pissed off - they are not going to vote for other party anyway, but they might decide to stay home during an election ensuring other party victory. That's where we are heading right now unless RU pulls something out of it's butt.

 

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Poland once has the SPG program called "Kryl", to develop truck-based gun for AMV-based and other lighter brigades. It is frozen at the moment, with focus on Krabs for heavy units. Assuming the niche still exists, I wonder if CAESAR or similar solution would be a right choice. 

CAESAR's main advantage compared to something like Archer or Zuzana seems to be the light weight which enables air-mobility, and perhaps lower cost. OTOH RoF and shoot and scoot ability is lower, which makes it a bit more susceptible to CB. And it can't be NBC protected given that crew has to disembark to fire, if anyone cares about that anymore. For now our AMV brigades use Dana's which and seem to be happy with those, so Zuzana would be a natural successor. 

As a side note, somebody pointed out that at the end of the war Ukrainian army will be in unique position to have battle-tested  a great number of comparable NATO artillery pieces. The lessons learned and comparisons made will be really interesting and having a particular system tested there will be quite an advantage for any future sales.

 

 

 

The trade off between wheeled and tracked SPGs has a lot of moving parts. The tracked systems have better tactical mobility. They can stop shoot and and displace more quickly, although vs a well thought system like Caesar this advantage is not that large. They are more resistant to shell splinters and small arms. The truck mounted systems have much better operational mobility and a lower logistics burden. A wheeled vehicle has a higher road speed, which helps both with clearing the last firing position, and makes the spot where they will stop to shoot next at least somewhat less predictable. 

My two cents is that the advantages of tracked mobility are less than they first appear unless you have a large scale system of tracked ammo supply vehicles. That can be done but it isn't cheap or easy. Otherwise the tracked SPGs are not straying far from their wheeled supply trucks, and if we have learned anything in this war it is that artillery is utterly dependent on its supply lines. My inclination is that I would rather have more wheel based systems rather than less tracked ones if the total system cost difference is significant .

Edit: Didn't mean to include the upper quote in this post, editor won't let me take it out, sorry.

Edited June 22, 2022 by dan/california

[sburke]

yikes...

Russian colonel who carried Putin's nuclear codes briefcase found shot (msn.com)

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Poland once has the SPG program called "Kryl", to develop truck-based gun for AMV-based and other lighter brigades. It is frozen at the moment, with focus on Krabs for heavy units. Assuming the niche still exists, I wonder if CAESAR or similar solution would be a right choice. 

CAESAR's main advantage compared to something like Archer or Zuzana seems to be the light weight which enables air-mobility, and perhaps lower cost. OTOH RoF and shoot and scoot ability is lower, which makes it a bit more susceptible to CB. And it can't be NBC protected given that crew has to disembark to fire, if anyone cares about that anymore. For now our AMV brigades use Dana's which and seem to be happy with those, so Zuzana would be a natural successor. 

As a side note, somebody pointed out that at the end of the war Ukrainian army will be in unique position to have battle-tested  a great number of comparable NATO artillery pieces. The lessons learned and comparisons made will be really interesting and having a particular system tested there will be quite an advantage for any future sales.

 

 

 

The 12 German and Dutch PZH 2000's have also arrived in the Ukraine. May they score many direct hits.