How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Putin: "%&^@#^%*&^%&##@!!!!!!!!"

[Calamine Waffles]

https://www.ladbible.com/news/latest-ukrainians-offer-to-write-special-messages-on-bombs-20220613

[G.I. Joe]

6 hours ago, Machor said:

 I found something 

Objective:

So, I was playing around with Google Trends to see if I could find a meaningful comparative statistic for Google searches from Russia using "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") and "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine"), and that didn't bring anything up. Instead, I stumbled upon this.

Methodology:

I looked up Google Trends data from Russia for Google searches for the last three months using "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") and "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine").

Findings:

Here are the top five subregions of Russia searching for "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") on Google for the last three months:

1. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
2. Belgorod Oblast
3. Buryatia
4. Bryansk Oblast
5. Jewish Autonomous Oblast [It is Russian populated; Jews are only 1% of the population today.]

Here are the top five subregions of Russia searching for "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine") on Google for the last three months:

1. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
2. Kostroma Oblast
3. Buryatia
4. Kamchatka Krai
5. Belgorod Oblast

Moreover, Moscow and St. Petersburg ranked 56th and 55th among Russia's 83 subregions searching for "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") [Since this is the politically correct form, this would include searches by liberals and dissidents.], and they ranked 58th and 75th among the 83 subregions searching for "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine").

Discussion:

Since Belgorod and Bryansk border Ukraine, heightened interest in the war is to be expected. Otherwise, we see that those most actively searching for information on events in Ukraine since the start of the war are far-flung regions where a large percentage of the population are professional military [Kostroma isn't far-flung, but it's piss-poor, and home to a VDV regiment that got wiped out early in the war.], and also the ethnic minority Buryatia and Chukotka, where at least the former are known to have taken very heavy losses in Ukraine. That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex.

Conversely, Moscow and St. Petersburg seem to have relatively little interest in the war beyond the official channels, in spite of their large populations.

Conclusion:

The war is having an unequal impact on Russian society and Russia's diverse regions, and this is already manifesting itself objectively via online data.

@LongLeftFlank

Wow...from discussion of use of the definite article in front of Ukraine, to the etymology of Україна and shifts in Ukrainian historiography following Independence to a useful dataset relevant to assessing public opinion and confidence in official channels across Russia, all in the space of about a day. This thread really is quite a phenomenon...

This, along with the prior discussion of Russia's status as a continental empire that has not decolonized, reminds me of something the prof I took a few Russian history courses with when I was getting my history degree said once: "You have to remember, Russia has 83 Quebecs." (i.e. Each federal subject of Russia has its own terms of membership and a slightly *ahem* distinct relationship with Moscow).

Edited June 14, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Machor said:

. That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex.

Conversely, Moscow and St. Petersburg seem to have relatively little interest in the war beyond the official channels, in spite of their large populations.

Sorry, mate, it is wrong. Moscow and St. Peterburg much more liberal and knowledgeable population does not search for news in Yandex (it is heavily sanitized) and rarely use google for that (not that useful for Russian speaking news).

Other less developed regions are searching in Yandex and google not because they do not trust official channels but because official channels are not generally useful. Even nationalists do not use official channels for news and look for their more useful unofficial alternatives using search engines.

Also, in and on is not reliable metric to separate liberals and nationalists. It is an overblown issue nobody cares about. 

[G.I. Joe]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry, mate, it is wrong. Moscow and St. Peterburg much more liberal and knowledgeable population does not search for news in Yandex (it is heavily sanitized) and rarely use google for that (not that useful for Russian speaking news).

Other less developed regions are searching in Yandex and google not because they do not trust official channels but because official channels are not generally useful. Even nationalists do not use official channels for news and look for their more useful unofficial alternatives using search engines.

Also, in and on is not reliable metric to separate liberals and nationalists. It is an overblown issue nobody cares about. 

Interesting. I am definitely not surprised that people in Moscow and St. Petersburg would have (and prefer) other work-arounds to get past official channels than using Google...

Edited June 14, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Grigb]

11 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Interesting. I am definitely not surprised that people in Moscow and St. Petersburg would have (and prefer) other work-arounds to get past official channels than using Google...

Yandex is useless because it is literally heavily controlled. Google is somewhat worse engine for Russian queries. Also, I believe Russian department heavily infiltrated by RU propagandist and so at least somewhat sanitized.

It is networking - you read liberal guy, he points to another liberal guy, and if you like him you add him to your list of sources. And so on and so forth.  

By the way, by liberal I mean pro-western and not like US liberal. All pro-western Russians are called liberals by RU propaganda but many of them are very conservative by US standards. 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Grigb

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yandex is useless because it is literally heavily controlled. Google is somewhat worse engine for Russian queries. Also, I believe Russian department heavily infiltrated by RU propagandist and so at least somewhat sanitized.

It is networking - you read liberal guy, he points to another liberal guy, and if you like him you add him to your list of sources. And so on and so forth.  

Not surprised by the possible infiltration... Just out of curiosity, do you have any impressions on the reliability of Russian-language Wikipedia? I just noticed this piece earlier today on ongoing legal action between the Russian government and the Wikimedia Foundation:

Wikipedia appeals Russian court order to remove information about Ukraine invasion | The Hill

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Great video showing how a T-80 is reloaded:

 

More interesting, that tanker tells they mostly use own tanks for indirect fire from closed positions. You can see - the tank loaded only with HE shells.

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Somebody did something to a Russian temporary base near Bryansk (at least that's the suspected location), no details:

 

Klintsy village, a home of 488th motor-rifle regiment of 144th motor-rifle division. Reportedly a fire in vehicles depot.

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

You can see - the tank loaded only with HE shells.

Not the first time they have used tanks as artillery. I found a picture from the Korean War. Looks like they did the same thing. 

[Calamine Waffles]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

More interesting, that tanker tells they mostly use own tanks for indirect fire from closed positions. You can see - the tank loaded only with HE shells.

Given the number of anti-tank weapons both sides have and with neither really being able to suppress the other, I don't think either side is willing to risk using them in the breakthrough role

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Not surprised by the possible infiltration... Just out of curiosity, do you have any impressions on the reliability of Russian-language Wikipedia? I just noticed this piece earlier today on ongoing legal action between the Russian government and the Wikimedia Foundation:

Wikipedia appeals Russian court order to remove information about Ukraine invasion | The Hill

RU one is for sure infiltrated. Wikipedia is to big to be left alone. Anything Russian speaking with significant Ru audience is either controlled or infiltrated. Even if it is not infiltrated owners got clear message to be a good Russian.

[Huba]

5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Poland is arming!  This is a serious threat and provocation!  Putin must invade now before it's too late!  He is only doing this because he has no choice, since later he will be at the mercy of the culturally and ethnically aggressor-nation Poles! 

Everyone will stop buying gas, clothes and food for a few years, but the army will be really well equipped  What didn't make it into the list is also reconnaissance-strike system based on indigenous UAVs, that are to be purchased in huge numbers, called Gladius.

https://polskieradio24.pl/395/7784/Artykul/2952827,Poland-buys-modern-drones-for-army-amid-Russia’s-war-on-Ukraine

Edit: oh, and MoD wants to purchase 2 recce satellites as well!

Our MoD also announced that it in intends to raise number of active divisions from 4 to 6, and perhaps a number if brigades in each one... That would mean going back to conscription, no way we can fill those with contract soldiers or volunteers. There are also elections in next year and it will be the next government that will have to finance all of this. No more soy lattes, blood and iron for everyone...

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's a much longer version of a video I'm pretty sure I posted a couple of days ago.  It is a video from much earlier (April?) which shows a coordinated use of a drone and ground forces to take out an outpost.  Look and see how much detail even a simple drone can provide the enemy force.  It's pretty scary.

The village might be in Sumy area, but I can't find it on a map.  However, the Russians look like DPR to me (red armbands and steel helmets).  This is supposedly from 93rd Brigade, which is over near Kharkiv these days, but I don't know where it was deployed back when there was still snow on the ground.

I lost track of Bustov's YouTube channel link and, for some reason, couldn't find it again.  Which forces me to post a Reddit link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vaybbr/destruction_and_capture_of_russian_mercenaries_in/

 

Scary indeed. 

[G.I. Joe]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU one is for sure infiltrated. Wikipedia is to big to be left alone. Anything Russian speaking with significant Ru audience is either controlled or infiltrated. Even if it is not infiltrated owners got clear message to be a good Russian.

Thanks. Definitely not surprising that the infiltration is pervasive.

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Everyone will stop buying gas, clothes and food for a few years, but the army will be really well equipped  What didn't make it into the list is also reconnaissance-strike system based on indigenous UAVs, that are to be purchased in huge numbers, called Gladius.

https://polskieradio24.pl/395/7784/Artykul/2952827,Poland-buys-modern-drones-for-army-amid-Russia’s-war-on-Ukraine

Our MoD also announced that it in ends to raise number of active divisions from 4 to 6, and perhaps a number if brigades in each one... That would mean going back to conscription, no way we can fill those with contract soldiers or volunteers. There are also elections in next year and it will be the next government that will have to finance all of this. No more soy lattes, blood and iron for everyone...

Grim times indeed...

[G.I. Joe]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Design of small UAV's seem to really kick off during this war and will be major leveller of the battlefield in the future. Even small countries but with good startups and educated population (like Balts) will probbaly be able to field them in thousands. Nothing we didn't expect, but things will probably go very fast from that point.

It looks like this may well be the war where drones "come of age." Of course, in some ways that could be said of Vietnam, the 1982 Lebanon War, Desert Storm, Afghanistan and/or Iraq...we're coming up on the 78th anniversary of the first drone strike this September. Sometimes revolutions in warfare happen gradually at first and then the floodgates open. Just look at the trickle of submarine technology from the American War of Independence to World War I...

[Calamine Waffles]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I lost track of Bustov's YouTube channel link and, for some reason, couldn't find it again.  Which forces me to post a Reddit link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vaybbr/destruction_and_capture_of_russian_mercenaries_in/

 

Yuri Butusov the reporter? It's called "Butusov Plus"
 

By the way, the video claims the T-80UM2 unicorn was taken out by artillery.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Huba]

Reassuring remarks from Lloyd Austin. Hopes for tomorrow's donors conference are high!

 

[Bulletpoint]

40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Given the number of anti-tank weapons both sides have and with neither really being able to suppress the other, I don't think either side is willing to risk using them in the breakthrough role

This sounds like WW1 thinking to me, if you replace "tanks" with "infantry" and "ATGM" with "MG"...

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

This sounds like WW1 thinking to me, if you replace "tanks" with "infantry" and "ATGM" with "MG"...

Not WW1 but WW2 - replace ATGMs with AT guns. This is how Soviet Cold War doctrine of massed mechanized assault was borne.

 

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Just now, Grigb said:

Not WW1 but WW2 - replace ATGMs with AT guns. This is how Soviet Cold War doctrine of massed mechanized assault was borne.

Yes, and the Soviet answer was to use artillery and maneuver and surprise...at least in theory.

[chuckdyke]

20 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

if you replace "tanks" with "infantry" and "ATGM" with "MG"...

The Germans just produced a Panther Tank. Good to see things are returning back to normal. See how this will cope with the new ATGMs. Follow the video I think it may be a game changer. Like the aircraft carrier replaced the battleship. This MBT has its own drone munitions. 

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Butschi]

15 hours ago, Haiduk said:

We had pre-war re-integration law project, which also was a case for Russia to blame Ukraine in plans of "military resolve of Donbas question", though this plan never said about it. But now reality is completely other and re-integration will be conducted in more tough way. Looking at resistance/SOF actions in Melitopol, Kherson, Luhansk oblast, we will not stop even before phisical elmination of collaborants during occupation and in liibaration process, those who now became "city mayors", "oblast administrations", "police" etc. Voices of HRW will be no more interest. I hope all, who met occupants will have a time to leave with them to their beloved Russia. All other must be condemned according to passed law about collaborationiosm. After 2014 almost all officials, those, who agitate for LDPR and stayed on UKR-controlled territories, were not punished and this also played own role in significant pro-Russian moods even on Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbas. 

Russians, who came to Crimea for living will go away. Some of them wrote before a war, that even if UKR take back Crimea it will be forced to give them UKR citizenship (and all cherry on tops, like visa-free trips), because in other case this will be violation of human rights. No-o-oo, pals. Don't even dare to dream about this. Also we must to establish "non-citizen" passports like in Baltic states. All who was convicted in unloyality to Ukraine or was condemned for collaborationism must receive such passport.

There is a movie "Atlantis" was produced in Ukraine in 2019 about problems, which will raise after liberation of Donbas 
   

I hope, for Ukraine's sake, that when/if you retake the lost territory all will go as civilized as possible. The support Ukraine receives from western countries is not only due to Ukraine being attack but also by the narrative that Ukraine defends western values. Justified or not, news of large scale displacements, acts of revenge, etc. will instantly let this narrative evaporate. I'm not sure about NATO but for EU membership that would certainly mean a major setback.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I hope, for Ukraine's sake, that when/if you retake the lost territory all will go as civilized as possible. The support Ukraine receives from western countries is not only due to Ukraine being attack but also by the narrative that Ukraine defends western values. Justified or not, news of large scale displacements, acts of revenge, etc. will instantly let this narrative evaporate. I'm not sure about NATO but for EU membership that would certainly mean a major setback.

That's going to be a hard nut to crack indeed. Never in post WW2 history has any Western country reincorporated a rebellious province by force (discounting various colonial adventures, not really applicable here) - how do you go about that really? There's got to be some nastiness involved, no way around it I'm afraid  Creating situations like this was Russia's MO for the last 30 years, that's one more reason to hate them.

[kraze]

Here's some more perspective on what russians truly want and their reasoning for you, literal words of their deputy prime minister / head of roscosmos

"What has grown in place of Ukraine poses an existential threat to russian people, russian history, russian language and russian civilization. If we are unable to end them, like, unfortunately our grandfathers didn't end them, our grandchildren will have to die, paying even greater price. So let us end this. Once and for all. For our grandchildren"

As stated before - whole russian faux-history and ideology that holds enslaved populations together - is built on a lie that Russia comes from Kyiv. If Kyiv is inhabited by people indigenous to it, that have their own culture, language and history and keep existing - then there's no reason for russians from Buryatia or Yakutia to consider themselves russians because them coming from Rus is a lie, it means everything is a lie - and it will lead to a disintegration of an empire.

Thus this war of extermination and genocide is going on for 300 years with Russia trying to erase the identity of anyone they occupy, including through mass murder. And especially when it comes to us. I do hope this time it's their end.