How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The one slant of the article I did not like was the typical lack of historical perspective.  Just imagine in 1940...

"Well, the British aren't telling us what their plans are for liberating Europe.  I don't think we should send them anything to defeat Nazi Germany until we do.  I mean, yes we want to defeat Hitler and all of that, but what guarrantees do we have that if we send a whole bunch of stuff over that will happen?"

Short sighted thinking that lacks historical context, but hey... this is mass market journalism we're talking about.

Steve

Excellent analogy, very well put as usual. The similarities between the position of NATO and Ukraine's other allies and the period of U.S. "neutrality" in World War II are pretty striking. Phillips P. O'Brien has a good turn of phrase for it in How the War Was Won when he describes the United States as a "non-combatant ally" of the United Kingdom, especially after Roosevelt won his third term.

Of course, every situation is unique. The sanctions can almost be thought of as a (mostly) bloodless "strategic bomber offensive" of sorts: if Uralvagon can't build another T-90 for lack of foreign components, the net effect in strategic terms is the same as if the plant had been levelled... 

[JonS]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just imagine in 1940...

"Well, the British aren't telling us what their plans are for liberating Europe.  I don't think we should send them anything to defeat Nazi Germany until we do.  I mean, yes we want to defeat Hitler and all of that, but what guarrantees do we have that if we send a whole bunch of stuff over that will happen?"

Well, there was a bit of that going on back then

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

Well, there was a bit of that going on back then

Yeah, the isolationists and pro-Germans certainly had their say and they were wrong as wrong then as now

Steve

[Kinophile]

  

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Answer to first question... I have a beautiful Yugo Mauser 98k and was going to have a MG-42 (longer story with that). 20 years ago it was easy to find 8mm from various countries that had definitively switched away from 8mm weapons even for reserves.

Answer to second question... the Missus knows the ammo exists and that it isn't safe to use.  The Missues doesn't need to know that I've used some of it   Not recently, though.  I looked at the ammo a few months ago and it has gone further down hill since I last popped off some rounds, so me thinks no more shooting of the Mauser until I find some newer ammo.  Which might be a long time.

Steve

Pfft cute story.

Those in the know, know that its really because you're secretly a HUGE Mexican Revolution cosplayer:

Here's Steve Grammont in the wild, everyone:

Girkin would be proud.

---

And btw, dammit, @Bil Hardenberger, I just have to note this - you've said @The_Capt's name twice now!

Don't say it a third time and beetlejuice us all into hell!

 

[Battlefront.com]

"neither after Afghanistan nor after Chechnya were there such cemeteries near the airborne divisions. 31st Airborne Assault Brigade… Ulyanovsk"

 

 

[LukeFF]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I personally have a crate of 1940s Turkish 8mm ammo that is part of a notorious import of "cheap" ammo many years ago.  The necks on some of the casings are physically cracked to the point where the bullet is either loose or falls out.  It's totally random, with some 5 round clips being without visual defect and another 5 round clip in the same bandolier having 3 or 4 with cracked necks.

Sounds like the .303 ammo I got with my Lee-Enfield rifle years ago. I learned really quickly why this Pakistani ammo was referred to as "crapistani" - duds and hangfires galore. I was glad to be rid of it as soon as possible. 

[Kinophile]

https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/june/11803-france-could-send-exocet-anti-ship-missiles-to-ukraine.html

Base range is only 70km, but updated Block III is 180km (111 miles).

For context, that is about 2/3 of the map distance from Odessa to Sebastopol (probably a bit less in RL- earths curvature, weather etc).

Also, the navalized Brimstone, "Sea Spear" is only 60km range.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Kinophile

[LongLeftFlank]

Having been stymied since April by the stubborn 'cork in the bottle' at Dovhenke, 35 CAA continues to seek a 'way around' the long contested Izium-Sloviansk route.

[DefMon3] In the same area units from 3rd Motor Rifle Division together with possibly 5th Guards Tank Division, Special forces, 11th Army Corps and some units from 106th GAD are trying to advance on the Dibrovne-Bohorodychne line with the help of heavy artillery. 

'Sherwood Forest'!

...This last point is why DefMon is concerned about the Russian bridge building north of Oskil.  If they can't supply this latest push, it fizzles too. Well, maybe it fizzles anyway, but don't depend on that....

****

I think when we start doing CM:Slava Ukraine! scenarios postwar, there's going to be room for a whole Apr-June campaign in this sector south of Izyum, between the UA partisan rearguard actions around Oskil dam, their stubborn redoubt at Dovhenke, the failed 'end runs' around Sulihyvka, and now perhaps this latest sinkhole for Russian men and matériel....

[LongLeftFlank]

Meanwhile, the stage continues to be set for the Russian Monte Cassino. 

It took Ivan 10 days and reinforcements from 90th GTD to secure the (flatter) woodlands on the north bank, and now they get to sit under nonstop fire from the Cave Monastery and its massif on the south bank. Even in the drone era, these kinds of vantage points matter.

The UA OPs are doubtless up on the hilltops, but I'm sure that won't stop the orcs blasting these beautiful monasteries to rubble.

They withdrew, that was baked in when Yarova fell. I doubt a single Ukrainian soldier was left behind.  And 'city' is a bit of a generous description. This district is mainly a bunch of woodland resorts in a national park, very scenic but not much economic or logistical significance.

If RU can somehow take the massif, that could well unhinge the Sloviansk defences at long last, and give credible form to a 'northern pincer' against Donbas.  But that requires a contested river crossing overwatched by high ground, a mountain assault (did I mention the caves part?), or else a breakthough via that 'Sherwood Forest' place into Bohorodychne.

And once more, the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to attack straight into the worst, least tank-friendly terrain they can find, at the end of tenuous supply routes. Sun Tzu is smiling.  And whatever are this war's version of the Black Tulips continue to go home....

And here we were (I was, anyway) thinking the summer war on the 'steppes' of Southern Ukraine would be largely like Kursk, mainly grasslands or sunflower fields and undulating hills, perfect tank country....

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[CAZmaj]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Answer to first question... I have a beautiful Yugo Mauser 98k and was going to have a MG-42 (longer story with that). 20 years ago it was easy to find 8mm from various countries that had definitively switched away from 8mm weapons even for reserves.

I shot both weapons: Yugoslav Zastava Kragujevac M48 (high school 1979) and M53 (1982 - 1987; 3 units with Lafette 42 tripods in my School for NCOs / motorized infantry platoon) used Yugoslav made 7.92×57mm Mauser. Bullets were 20 - 30 years old, but we never had any problems firing them.

[fireship4]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Long wait for DE systems

 

Colourful language in english is a little jarring being so used to hearing Ukrainian

Thomas C. Theiner on twitter (@noclador) says the German M270 is identical to the Italian and French versions, that they can fire the GMLRS missles (if they are the ones in question), and that the German army ordered many themselves, and have pictures of them being used on their website, suggesting the Germans are... wrong:

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636945300652039#m

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534642877988495360#m

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636273079668736#m

[FancyCat]

How much credibility does Business Insider have in Germany? Seriously doubtful about the M270s unless more sources confirm the excuse.

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Thomas C. Theiner on twitter (@noclador) says the German M270 is identical to the Italian and French versions, that they can fire the GMLRS missles (if they are the ones in question), and that the German army ordered many themselves, and have pictures of them being used on their website, suggesting the Germans are... wrong:

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636945300652039#m

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534642877988495360#m

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636273079668736#m

"Wrong"  is the kindest possible interpretation. I have a more realistic one it includes the words tankie, appeasement, hopeless dithering, cowardice and twenty three words Steve has asked us not to use. At this point we simply have to hope the poles will send ~10-15 batteries and ask for forgiveness instead of permission. A lot of brave people who ought to be playing with their kids and planting wheat will die between now and when anything they announce at the next big aid coordination meeting can get there.

[Twisk]

5 hours ago, Machor said:

Neil Hauer is either being an alarmist to attract attention, is simply alarmist, or there is cause for alarm:

First thank you all for good replies to my first comment. I take to heart the time spent to reply to new forum member.

Second I will use information from playing Combat Mission against other players. This is maybe not of accurate military reporting but I think can give good idea of how reports from frontlines can be not accurate.  Often you will feel as if you are losing even as you are winning. you feel every loss keenly as enemy shells find weakest point in your forces. You see your vehicles burning, and pixeltruppen dying and think "how can I win this". Yet!  out of nowhere opponent surrenders because his force has been destroyed to greatest extent. You did not realize how much better you are fighting because you only saw your own losses but could not confirm enemy losses.

I think often reports from frontlines soldiers are like such. They will report bad situation because for them there is a bad situation, but they can not fully know how bad enemy situation is. They see every friend killed but do not see many enemy killed. As result we get report from "reliably fighter" that things are very bad even though tings are in fact not so bad. Now  I do not meant to reduce risk of death and harm soldier makes! It is great indeed! But I only mean to say that report of front soldier is not always accurate to real combat balance.

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Having been stymied since April by the stubborn 'cork in the bottle' at Dovhenke, 35 CAA continues to seek a 'way around' the long contested Izium-Sloviansk route.

Sherwood Forest'!

...This last point is why DefMon is concerned about the Russian bridge building north of Oskil.  If they can't supply this latest push, it fizzles too. Well, maybe it fizzles anyway, but don't depend on that....

****

I think when we start doing CM:Slava Ukraine! scenarios postwar, there's going to be room for a whole Apr-June campaign in this sector south of Izyum, between the UA partisan rearguard actions around Oskil dam, their stubborn redoubt at Dovhenke, the failed 'end runs' around Sulihyvka, and now perhaps this latest sinkhole for Russian men and matériel....

Wagner PMC spetsnaz-for-hire also operating up here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1534771959220797441

Interestingly, all through human history, mercenaries tend *not* to be usable in high intensity / high casualty infantry combat situations like MOUT or forest combat, for the very reason that you can't spend your money if you're dead.

...If you enlist in a foreign legion type unit, a la Gurkhas or Étranger, that's different, you're a foreign enlistee in a regular armed unit, usually under local officers.

And when mercs do accept high risk taskings, these are usually one-offs requiring specialised skills (sappers, frogman, mountaineering, etc.).  And special operators tend to plan such ops so that it's other folks who do the bulk of the dying.  As my SEAL buddy once said, if you're still in active contact after the second clip, you've just become a Marine.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

1 hour ago, fireship4 said:

Thomas C. Theiner on twitter (@noclador) says the German M270 is identical to the Italian and French versions, that they can fire the GMLRS missles (if they are the ones in question), and that the German army ordered many themselves, and have pictures of them being used on their website, suggesting the Germans are... wrong:

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636945300652039#m

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534642877988495360#m

https://nitter.net/noclador/status/1534636273079668736#m

It is partially false- German, French and Italian launchers were updated with indigenous FCS that is different from US or UK one in M270A1. The upgrade itself was done to allow GMLRS though, so this crucial part is right. The difference is that European launchers are no longer capable of launching M26 family of rockets, complying with  cluster munitions ban adapted by those countries.

https://militaryleak.com/2021/07/13/german-army-upgrades-mars-ii-mlrs-e-with-new-fire-control-systems-and-gmlrs/

Edited June 9, 2022 by Huba

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If RU can somehow take the massif, that could well unhinge the Sloviansk defences at long last, and give credible form to a 'northern pincer' against Donbas.  But that requires a contested river crossing overwatched by high ground....

Russian sources are claiming a crossing east of the Sviaty Hory massif, at Tetyanivka. Rumours of a pontoon appear unfounded, so it's likely infantry. But they need to be ejected asap.

fwiw...

The Ukes have also had weeks to mine the hell out of this stretch of riverbank, which they've known would eventually become a front.

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russian sources are claiming a crossing east of the massif, at Tetyanivka. Rumours of a pontoon appear unfounded, so it's likely infantry. But they need to be ejected asap.

Now as I didn't play CM yet , my idea of tactics here is as theoretical as possible, but wouldn't defending the high ground above be a better idea than sitting in the town itself under Russian bombardment? Let them come uphill and deal with them where advancing unit have no LOS to forces on the other side of the river. Prevent any bridging attempt with indirect artillery fire, same way maul any light units that crossed the river. Just keep some observers on the crest with view on the river valley (if drones are not enough).

I recall German defences during/ after Race to the Sea that weren't built on reverse slope, but on the one facing the enemy were just a huge deathtrap for the defenders, and this WW1 parallel seems applicable here too.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Huba

[LongLeftFlank]

On 6/6/2022 at 6:46 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Ussuri front denuded....

@sburke

Back on the 'Collapse: How Soon?' topic, astute Chinese OSINT analyst Suyi had a few more observations in the 'scraping the barrel' category:

Yanking forces from Kaliningrad, as well as the Far East.

And he has grasped the true nature of the attrition battle, as we have here.  Westerners though just can't give up the 'Russia has endless manpower' meme....

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

How much credibility does Business Insider have in Germany? Seriously doubtful about the M270s unless more sources confirm the excuse.

So far Business Insider appears to be the only source. I found a few reports in other media but everyone was quoting Business Insider. I can't say too much about credibility but given how generally uninformed German mass media is w.r.t. the finer details of this war, I doubt there is much real fact checking going on.

On a personal note: Could we please reduce the general Germany-bashing a bit? As I have said here severals times, I am not much of a Scholz-fan myself and Scholz is not Germany. Moreover, as (I think) Napoleon once said, never assume ill will when you can explain something with incompetence instead... Third point: While I often share the irritation caused by German politics, we should still keep in mind (and here I have to kind of defend Scholz): Germany's democratically elected chancellor is still called Scholz, not Selenskyj or Duda or Biden. So, while it is legitimate to ask or even demand something of a country it is also legitimate for said country not to grant everything. Not meant inflammatory and, as I said, I don't like much of what Scholz & Co decided (or rather did not decide) in the past.

[G.I. Joe]

Interesting piece I saw on Global News' website about one of the civilian volunteer drone operators who provided intel during the opening days of the invasion:

Exclusive: How a 15-year-old Ukrainian drone pilot helped destroy a Russian army column

This one raises some very complicated ethical and legal issues... This kid is a hero, and I don't want to diminish that or second-guess the decisions of commanders who can't afford to be fussy about where their intel comes from. But a 15-year-old drone operator supplying intel does come uncomfortably close to a child soldier. I really cannot say I am comfortable with the implications of it.

I have so far avoided directly mentioning that I was ever in the reserves myself, mainly because what I did was not at all comparable to the frontline service many of the people here have. But in this case my experience is kind of relevant... I was a secondary reserve CF officer in the Cadet Instructors Cadre for just over twelve years, part of a quarter-century involvement with the Royal Canadian Air Cadets. For a fair chunk of my stint in the CIC, I used to fly L-19 Bird Dogs and later Cessna 182s towing gliders sometimes flown by student pilots his age (the requirement for Glider is 16 by the end of August, so a course cadet's birthday could fall after the grad parade). So I know from experience how assiduous cadet programs are about the civilian status of cadets (I think Canada may be slightly unusual for the officers running the program to have reserve force status, I know in the US and UK they're uniformed civilian auxiliaries and I think that's the case in Australia). Avoiding even the appearance of combat related training is a real concern, as activists sometimes claim cadets are "child soldiers" and it can also be a whataboutism other countries use in response to Canadian diplomatic pressure on the subject.

I haven't seen the potential for underage personnel getting involved mentioned in the ethical discussions around drone warfare, but this definitely puts the issue in the spotlight. Reflecting on having provided intelligence that led to enemy casualties is a lot for someone that age to have to bear.

As I said before, not going to pass judgment. But with my background I cannot help but be uncomfortable with the ramifications...

Edited June 9, 2022 by G.I. Joe
Correction - removed qualifier "much" regarding not seeing the issue raised with regard to drone warfare before.

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

But a 15-year-old drone operator supplying intel does come uncomfortably close to a child soldier

So were children riding their bicycles close to German units during WW2. It is as old as warfare. 

[G.I. Joe]

Just now, chuckdyke said:

So were children riding their bicycles close to German units during WW2. It is as old as warfare. 

Indeed...it is hardly a new issue. New technology just adds a new variation on an age-old theme.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Interesting piece I saw on Global News' website about one of the civilian volunteer drone operators who provided intel during the opening days of the invasion:

Exclusive: How a 15-year-old Ukrainian drone pilot helped destroy a Russian army column

This one raises some very complicated ethical and legal issues... This kid is a hero, and I don't want to diminish that or second-guess the decisions of commanders who can't afford to be fussy about where their intel comes from. But a 15-year-old drone operator supplying intel does come uncomfortably close to a child soldier. I really cannot say I am comfortable with the implications of it.

Pic below shows the most important and iconic Warsaw Uprising monument - for me it was always in 'martyrology gone wrong' bucket, yet this is what happens when people see the threat as existential in the most basic meaning of this term. Better to let the kid fight back than be killed like a sheep I guess. War is worst than hell, cause in hell there are no innocents...

And on a less depressing note, another fire in Russian military enterprise, we hadn't have any for a while:

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Huba

[chuckdyke]

Radar mast in WW2 and now Wi-Fi towers connecting home PCs with drones. How do you fight that as an invader? Scorched earth? I in no way approve of the Russian invasion but they don't waste their shells for nothing.