How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Im not sure of this logic. Wouldn't a more experienced crew know the reality, that they cant outrun/maneuver/reverse an incoming ATGM?

Conversely, a crappy, inexperienced crew wouldn't?

The guys above are obviously highly aware of the uselessness of staying in their mobile sardine cans, which speaks to experience. The first guy who falls out seems to help/encourage everyone else to GTFO and is one of the last to leave.

 

The thing is, when you're buttoned you don't know what is attacking you.  BOOM!  Could be a missed direct fire round, could be a wildly inaccurate hip shot form a 120mm mortar, could be a dumb muntion from a drone, could be anything.  The inexperienced crew might not even try to ponder the possibilities, but instead bail.  An experienced crew might figure there's more chances the next munition doesn't have their name on it.  An experienced crew might also have confidence that they can get out of a sticky situation whereas the inexperienced crew doesn't. 

I think it is dangerous to have TacAI crews of specific vehicles more likely to bail simply because of a lack of faith in what they are riding in, but that may in fact be something we need to consider.  Or at least look into.

Steve

[Kinophile]

31 minutes ago, c3k said:

Using "Q ships" for MLRS or Brimstones would then open EVERY civilian vehicle up as a legitimate target for the enemy. 

Isnt that already the Russian tactical approach, since D-0?

[Huba]

More artillery:

A thread from Dmitry, guy who gives us all those interesting translations. He subjectively remarks about general trends he noticed in materials he has been reading/ listening to lately:

And something really bleeping scary:

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com that would make sense though - for sure a Bradley crew will have more faith in their survivability than a BMP-2. I for sure do; I hate bmps with a deep abiding passion and have zero faith in their ability to survive anything heavier than HMG fire. I view them as a burden, if anything.

An interesting factor to model - vehicle type (and condition) affecting crew morale. Theres plenty of tines ive used an MBT with a damaged barrel to spot for other units; but I'm doubtful a RL crew would be too happy to oblige that, esp if theres hostile MBTs in the area.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We discussed this before and it is an interesting idea - a “fog eating snow” highly distributed offensive.  It is still “big” but a death of a thousand cuts.  It would still need to deliver operational effects and most importantly it must be able to deliver tactical attrition in depth.  The aim here is the collapse of the Russian military system, first locally and then regionally.  This already happened once in this war and could happen again.

One of the fascinating aspects of this war is the possibility that collapsing the Russian ability to fight could happen without nailing a single additional rear echelon element.

During the first phase of the war the Russians had overwhelming concentrations (mass) of combat units compared to the Ukrainians.  To equalize this Ukraine adopted a strategy of laying waste to Russia's supporting services, especially logistics, in order to reduce the ability of the frontline forces to conduct themselves.

Now we find ourselves looking at probable parity of combat forces generally, though with Russia having more plentiful heavier forces in the mix.  This is important because Russia doesn't have much in the way of combat reserves.  Each vehicle or unit it eliminates creates a gap in the front that Russia has to fill.  Whack enough frontline units in a given area and it obligates Russia to shift something already committed to fill the gap. 

Russia has been doing this for more than a month and it's beginning to show that this replacement strategy has run its course as it was bound to do.  Now it seems that whenever Russia patches up one sector it leaves another sector too thinly defended to put up much of a fight against a deliberate Ukrainian attack.  Which Ukraine seems to be increasingly doing.

With this in mind, while it is definitely a positive to nail a bunch of fuel trucks, some bridging equipment, artillery, etc., it is no longer necessary.  If Russia finds it's forward fighting elements (e.g. tanks and infantry) are no longer capable of holding back even a smallish scale Ukrainian attack, which Ukraine has repeatedly shown it can do, then Russia's is faced with either addressing the shortage or having to withdraw.  Artillery can not hold frontage on its own.

In the first phase Russia was forces to remedy it's increasingly difficult logistics by shrinking its frontage.  That was a painful decision, but Russia could (and did) frame the north as being superfluous to its primary goals.  In this phase of the war we're in now that's really not feasible because there's nothing Russia can give up that doesn't directly undermine its clearly stated war aims.

And yes, we need to wargame this out.  I have some ideas on how to do that

Steve

[FancyCat]

18 Caesars are in Ukraine now, up from 6 in May. 6 diverted from the French Army, 12 from a existing order for Morocco.

A review of Oryx's sheet shows 100 SPGs at least in the process of being sent to Ukraine/in Ukraine already. Hopefully this will ramp up with more from the U.S.

 

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com that would make sense though - for sure a Bradley crew will have more faith in their survivability than a BMP-2. I for sure do; I hate bmps with a deep abiding passion and have zero faith in their ability to survive anything heavier than HMG fire. I view them as a burden, if anything.

An interesting factor to model - vehicle type (and condition) affecting crew morale. Theres plenty of tines ive used an MBT with a damaged barrel to spot for other units; but I'm doubtful a RL crew would be too happy to oblige that, esp if theres hostile MBTs in the area.

Good points.  I've worked this into some developing thoughts for us to examine in detail in the near future.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Does the TAC AI know that? I mean sometimes they spot the ATGM team and shoot back, and sometimes they don't? Honest question on game mechanics

Yes, I have plenty of saved replay to prove that. An AFV with poor optics will turn the turret and hull toward the missile even though they have not spotted ATGM team.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And yes, we need to wargame this out.  I have some ideas on how to do that

Steve

Alright!  Steve committed to adding an OP layer to CM!....... kidding......

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Alright!  Steve committed to adding an OP layer to CM!.........

I heard it too. Yup yup yup yup...

[Machor]

Xi must be fuming at Putin.

Kishida looks to be first Japanese leader to attend NATO summit

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/04/national/fumio-kishida-nato-summit/

"Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is planning to attend a NATO summit slated for late June in Spain, a development that would make him the first Japanese leader to take part in a gathering of the Western alliance, a government source said Saturday.

Kishida’s attendance at the June 29-30 event in Madrid is dependent on the domestic political situation leading up to an Upper House election likely to be held July 10, the source said.

Through Kishida’s participation in the NATO summit, officials hope Japan will strengthen coordination with the United States and European countries in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and possible contingencies over the Taiwan Strait."

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Machor said:

Xi must be fuming at Putin.

Kishida looks to be first Japanese leader to attend NATO summit

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/04/national/fumio-kishida-nato-summit/

"Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is planning to attend a NATO summit slated for late June in Spain, a development that would make him the first Japanese leader to take part in a gathering of the Western alliance, a government source said Saturday.

Kishida’s attendance at the June 29-30 event in Madrid is dependent on the domestic political situation leading up to an Upper House election likely to be held July 10, the source said.

Through Kishida’s participation in the NATO summit, officials hope Japan will strengthen coordination with the United States and European countries in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and possible contingencies over the Taiwan Strait."

For quite some time I've been thinking that NATO should transform into a broader military pact that includes Asia theater.  Back in the old days it could be argued that what happened there wasn't as important for Europe and vice versa.  Really, we're all one big unhappy family now and Europe's economic interests could be seriously threatened by an outbreak of war in Asia (North Korea, China, etc.).  In fact, it's unlikely that a large war in Asia wouldn't involve all NATO members anyway, so why not get the deterrence in place now?  It's worked to keep Russia contained for the most part.  Even though NATO failed to stop Putin from attacking Ukraine, it has significantly limited his options and is one of the reasons Russia will lose this war.

But that's just me dreaming of New World Order 2.0

Steve

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, Machor said:

Xi must be fuming at Putin.

Kishida looks to be first Japanese leader to attend NATO summit

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/04/national/fumio-kishida-nato-summit/

"Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is planning to attend a NATO summit slated for late June in Spain, a development that would make him the first Japanese leader to take part in a gathering of the Western alliance, a government source said Saturday.

Kishida’s attendance at the June 29-30 event in Madrid is dependent on the domestic political situation leading up to an Upper House election likely to be held July 10, the source said.

Through Kishida’s participation in the NATO summit, officials hope Japan will strengthen coordination with the United States and European countries in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and possible contingencies over the Taiwan Strait."

well, like I've said.  there's no longer any hiding that there's a mad dog next door.  And right now can use the fact that the dog is busy to build a better fence.  Dog won't like it but he's already got another dog biting his neck.

 

Meanwhile China has decisions to make.  Give in to nationalistic militarism, or continue to massively benefit from global trade.  They can't afford folks moving production or getting suppliers elsewhere.

Edited June 5, 2022 by danfrodo

[Calamine Waffles]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For quite some time I've been thinking that NATO should transform into a broader military pact that includes Asia theater.  Back in the old days it could be argued that what happened there wasn't as important for Europe and vice versa.  Really, we're all one big unhappy family now and Europe's economic interests could be seriously threatened by an outbreak of war in Asia (North Korea, China, etc.).  In fact, it's unlikely that a large war in Asia wouldn't involve all NATO members anyway, so why not get the deterrence in place now?  It's worked to keep Russia contained for the most part.  Even though NATO failed to stop Putin from attacking Ukraine, it has significantly limited his options and is one of the reasons Russia will lose this war.

But that's just me dreaming of New World Order 2.0

Steve

The problem with a NATO type mutual defense bloc in the Indo-Pacific region is that the Indo-Pacific region is a lot more heterogeneous and less integrated than Europe + North America is. Many of these nations have very different and often competing strategic interests, and some (Japan and Korea) still bear significant historical grudges.

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Hapless said:

Cheap and cheerful rocket artillery? How hard would it be to have 'mobilisation MRLS kits' to turn peacetime civilian pickups into an MLRS mosquito swarm?

 

The Ukrainians need fire power now, today, anyway they can get it. Logistically this makes some sense, it is a civilian vehicle that any number of people know how to fix. My guess is that they have more of these rockets than they have airframes to deliver them. My primary question can they aim it to at least the nearest square mile. That has a LARGE influence on it utility. And even then the point the nose up, fire, and pray method pilots on both sides are using borders on just silly. You can probably aim this thing a whole lot better using the compass and angles measurement built into your i-phone. Presumably someone at least guessed at a firing table from the spec sheet on the rocket. Cold, cruel math of war, getting pick up trucks shot up delivering not very accurate rocket fire makes more sense than getting helicopters shot down doing the same thing, and uses less gas.  

The same basic thing using the laser guided 70 mm rockets the U.S. is maybe sending might make a LOT of sense. 

4 hours ago, c3k said:

Using "Q ships" for MLRS or Brimstones would then open EVERY civilian vehicle up as a legitimate target for the enemy. That may be acceptable...or not.

Distributing MLRS onto many platforms would leave open the large question of distributing targeting information and allocating munitions to the correct platform. Certainly solvable, but it'd require robust networking.

The Russians' first five picks for targets already seems to include schools, hospitals, theaters with children written all over them, and school buses. I literally don't see what difference it would make. 

The Ukrainians already seem to have a pretty good control system for distributed fires. You just need the right secure radio for each truck or battery. Yes that might cost as much as everything else put together, but needs must...

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

A thread from Dmitry, guy who gives us all those interesting translations. He subjectively remarks about general trends he noticed in materials he has been reading/ listening to lately:

Dmitri has been doing stellar work and has exposed himself to more of the Russian perspective that probably anybody else out there, including perhaps the paid professionals.  I think I'll chip in (again) to thank him for his efforts.

This "feeling" that he has is one I trust.  I've been waiting for the time when the Russian dogs of war start to fight amongst themselves.  It seems that time is starting to happen.  This is extremely important because these guys are diehards.  If they are feeling dismay, then the poor performance of this war is probably more widespread than we might think.  The "Z"ombies, as he put it, will go down with the ship no matter what.  But the hardcore pro military guys have the theoretical ability to cause the ship to sink.

Dmitri mentions the various stages of grief.  This is an interesting paradigm to use.  If so, then I think we're seeing the hardcore entering the 2nd stage; Anger.  The first signs of it are as Dmitri posted, which is attacking each other.  At some point they will do that more than they attack either Putin's regime or NATO.  Once that happens things will really get interesting.  Because at some point their angry voices will come to an agreement that Putin is to blame, either because he's not fighting the war correctly or because he oversold Russia's abilities.  Either one means trouble for Putin.

Steve

[sburke]

Sorry Lavrov, as they used to say in NY to folks asking directions - you can't get there from here.

Flight ban hits Russian minister's visit to Serbia (msn.com)

[FancyCat]

whoa, Zelensky visited a lot of the frontlines, including inside the salient, ballsy, and impressive they felt confident enough to make it happen.

 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by FancyCat

[Kinophile]

What, no stupid long white tables in a wierd "2001"-inspired all-white room, like some geriatric cancer-riddled sociopath?

 

[Fenris]

Hmmm, ballsy sure, but is that a great idea?  I really hope he doesn't go the way of all the RF generals that have gotten too close the pointy end of things.

[Fenris]

Case in point - this got posted a couple of hours ago (it's twitter so should probably wait for corroboration but posting anyway)

Quote

BREAKING: Although not yet fully confirmed, a 2nd #Russian General was killed today!

Commander of the Russian Federation’s 29th Army, Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, was killed in Ukraine this morning in #Severodonetsk

That’s the 14th General from #Russia killed in #Ukraine

 

Will put a link, there's another tweet with a photo of a corpse attached.

https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1533586195388801030

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Fenris
change tweet to link

[Machor]

Ukraine war: UK to send Ukraine M270 multiple-launch rocket systems

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61701055

"The UK is sending its first long-range missiles to Ukraine, the defence secretary has said, despite a threat from Russia to the West.

Ben Wallace said the M270 multiple-launch rocket system will help Ukraine defend itself against Russia.

The UK government has not confirmed how many weapons will be sent, but the BBC understands it will be three initially."

"The UK government said the Ukrainian military will be trained in how to use the launchers in the UK in the coming weeks."

"Britain and America have led the way in supplying weapons to Ukraine, but giving it advanced long range rockets marks a significant shift, said the BBC's defence correspondent Jonathan Beale.

It is also a recognition that Ukraine is struggling to compete against Russia's vast artillery arsenal, he added.

The UK's multiple launch rocket system can fire 12 surface-to-surface missiles within a minute and can strike targets within 50 miles (80km) with pinpoint accuracy - far further than the artillery Ukraine currently possesses.

It is similar to the system the US is sending, the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).

Last week Washington said it would supply four HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine - following receipt of guarantees they would be used for defensive purposes only and not to strike targets inside Russia."

[G.I. Joe]

Great series of posts today, currently out of reactions otherwise I would upvote a lot more...

57 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Hmmm, ballsy sure, but is that a great idea?  I really hope he doesn't go the way of all the RF generals that have gotten too close the pointy end of things.

Agreed, hopefully everyone is being very careful on opsec.

I remember reading that Churchill wanted to watch the shore bombardment for D-Day from the bridge of HMS Belfast. King George VI put a stop to it by letting it be known that if the PM were to do so, he would insist on joining him...

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

whoa, Zelensky visited a lot of the frontlines, including inside the salient, ballsy, and impressive they felt confident enough to make it happen.

Incredible.  And Putin hasn't even visited his troops in the rear, not to mention at the front.  Well, unless you want to include him visiting SFB guys pretending to be wounded.

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Hmmm, ballsy sure, but is that a great idea?  I really hope he doesn't go the way of all the RF generals that have gotten too close the pointy end of things.

This move was beyond ballsy.  Ukraine has been dominating the PR war since the start, yet keeps finding new ways to humiliate Russia.  The same day the President of Ukraine, who has been targeted with some large number of assassination attempts, goes to the front lines and returns safely, Russia loses two high level leaders while the most senior leader cowers in the Kremlin.  Well, that says a lot about how this war is going for Russia, doesn't it?

It will be interesting to see how the ultra hardcore Russian warmongers take to this news.  These guys are not going to overlook the symbology of this, especially now that they are already expressing doubts.

Steve

[c3k]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

And yes, we need to wargame this out.  I have some ideas on how to do that

Steve

^^^

Sig-line material if I've ever seen it!