How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

@Battlefront.com@The_Capt@Haiduk@kraze et al..

Appreciate any perspective on the following regarding Crimea.

1. Should reacquiring Crimea be a strategic/operational goal at all for Ukraine?

2. If yes, what would you anticipate Russia’s response to be, given the current condition of the RA & political climate?

3. Would a majority of the Crimean population actively support or reject such an endeavor by Ukraine?

1. of course, Crimea is Ukrainian

2. it won't change. They don't consider Ukraine a country, but their territory that got invaded by Ukrainian untermenschen that must be exterminated and replaced with russians. What are they going to do? Invade us?

3. Crimea is Ukrainian territory. So everybody that came there after 2014 will be kindly asked to leave. Yes we have toilets and yes those are nice, but those aren't yours and they still have their legit owners that had to leave. Just save some money and buy your own back home. The rest may have a say after every single russian soldier is made to not be there.

Edited May 30, 2022 by kraze

[Armorgunner]

Today it was announced that the square outside the Nazirussian Embassy in Stockholm/Sweden. Changes its name, to "Free place of Ukraine" 

 

Edit: Can add a twitter link in Swedish 

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Vanir Ausf B]

Russia continues the odd practice of showing its forces missing targets.

Unfortunately they don't always miss.

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[Calamine Waffles]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Kofman has a funny bit when he's asked early on what he got wrong and he snippily replies "well I don't know who didnt!" Please, someone get him and @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt on a zoom chat...and a lot of popcorn please.

The thing is that, before the war he was one of those people who was publishing articles like this:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/09/23/zapad-2021-what-we-learned-from-russias-massive-military-drills-a75127
 

Quote

Zapad is not just military theater, it affirms that years of defense modernization and reform have made the Russian military a force with increased capability, readiness, and mobility.

 

Quote

The Russian military’s training regimen has evolved to a year-long set of exercises and events, maintaining relatively high levels of readiness.

 

Quote

The clearest shift in Russian thinking is away from strategic ground offensives and towards long-range strikes against critically important economic and military targets, seeking to degrade a state’s ability or will to sustain a conflict. 

 

Quote

While not a stress test, Zapad was an affirmation that years of procurement and defence modernization have made the Russian military a combat credible force, with increased readiness and mobility. 

You could very well argue that analyses from fairly influential people like him discouraged heavier Western aid to Ukraine, especially in the lead-up to and earlier stages of the war. I think they have to acknowledge that this probably led to a lot of Ukrainian deaths, and I don't think they have the intellectual honesty to do that.

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

“Anti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down, but what killed them was our artillery.” -- Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander of the Ukrainian armed forces

I would be cautious about ascribing outcomes to any particular weapons system or type. Reasons for the Russian failure are manifold.

That exact sentence in that exact article is what I was thinking of. The Russians HAD to be slowed down so the artillery and everything else could have the time to work. Without that initial blunting of their momentum the Russian bum's rush excuse for a plan very well might have worked. At least well enough to displace the the Ukrainian government from Kyiv.  

[Cederic]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Yes we have toilets

https://www.tryukraine.com/info/gripes.shtml

Quite why some people are fixated on Russian bathroom installations is beyond me. Yes, 20-25% of Russian families lack inside plumbing, but Ukraine is hardly a shining exemplar here.

 

I do however disagree that Russia would not respond to Ukrainian armed forces re-entering Crimea. I think that would be perceived as an escalation and likely result in war formally being declared, allowing Putin to call a full mobilisation. Admittedly a badly trained ill-equipped one lacking in armour support, but a lot of warm bodies has a quality all of its own.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Russia continues the odd practice of showing its forces missing targets.

Unfortunately they don't always miss.

 

They would show hits if they had them...

[Kinophile]

@Vanir Ausf B

"Look! We're firing our guns, therefore we are winning!"

Thats some Kadyrovite level copium right there.

...

Speaking of over-equipped fashionistas, I read recently Kadyroviskis were "leading" the fight into Sieverodonetsk. I'm truly curious of their actual combat ability if forced into a real battler; by which I mean, in a slow siege like Marioupol, there's plenty of down time. But Sieverodonetsk is extremely dangerous right now, which is very much not the K's vibe, yet the Russian push to the front is relentless and I doubt even the Chechens can get away with fobbing off.

So if push really does come to shove, can these camouflaged 'grammers actually fight?

Edited May 30, 2022 by Kinophile

[BlackMoria]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

"Look! We're firing our guns, therefore we are winning!"

Thats some Kadyrovite level copium right there.

Speaking of over-equipped fashionistas, I read recently Kadyroviskis were "leading" the fight into Sieverodonetsk. I'm truly curious of their actual combat ability if forced into a real battler; by which I mean, in a slow siege like Marioupol, there's plenty of down time. But Sieverodonetsk is extremely dangerous right now, which is very much not the K's vibe, yet the Russian push to the front is relentless and I doubt even the Chechens can get away with fobbing off.

So if push really does come to shove, can these camouflaged 'grammers actually fight?

I think it is safe to say that they will not be putting up Tik Tok videos of them getting owned.  I expect more video shennigans of them trolling after someone on the Russian side has won the ground on which these posers pose.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[FancyCat]

Looks seemingly like Ukraine has retreated from Severodonetsk. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, sross112 said:

Let's think about the overall numbers. The UA started with 200,000ish troops in 17 brigades. They now state they have 700,000ish troops. Each brigade has an artillery group (based on pre-war TO&Es) consisting of 36 tubes and 18 MRLS. Pre war they needed 600ish tubes and 300ish MRLS. So just to give their regular pre war brigades the upgraded capabilities they need a lot more guns and rocket trucks than what is being sent now. All the mishmash of self propelled guns might be able to update a single brigade at this point. If the west announced 300 M777s, 300 Pzh2000s and 300 HIMARS that would be a "game changer" as the RA would be out matched along the entire line. And even that still depends on the ammunition types provided for the systems. The capabilities of each have a wide range that totally depends on what types and quantities of ammo are provided. 

This also bleeds over into the question of why we haven't seen several new UA formations appearing on the battlefield. They have pushed a few TD brigades to the front with varying degrees of success but reports say that they didn't have the heavy equipment they need to be front line brigades. Why? Because the UA doesn't have it.

I doubt 700 000 meant as "in the army", more likely this is all force structures - Armed Forces (Ground Forces, Air Forces, Naval Forces, Territorial Defense Command, Air-assault command), SOF + their volunteers, SBU special forces + their volunteers, National Guard, State Border Guard Service. Also very likely special police units like KORD. Or maybe even whole police. I have no clue where to place 700K in current army structure even with Reserve Corps deployed. 

Pre-war picture in artillery was much worse. Because of losses of 2014-2015 and exhausting of barrels life in 2016-2021, the number of artillery was significantly reduced. Mech. or tank brigade had 18 2S1 (3 batteries x 6 barrels), 12 2S3 (3 batteries x 4 barrels) and 12 Grad (3 batteries x 4 launchers). Maybe, when the war started, all "shortened" battalions got additional guns/launchers for 36/18 number, but I don't know.

Number in 17 brigades also not correct. We had 13 "heavy" brigades (tank, mech. and mountain-assault) +1 training center, which can consider as brigade or at least "large BTG". For this 13 brigades we should have 234 122 mm SP-howitzers and per 156 152 mm SP-howitzers and 122 mm MLRS launchers. OK, I will add per 18/12/12 for training center too. 

Next we had 4 "light" motorized infantry brigades, which should have the same brigade artillery group, but 152 mm towed D-20 howitzers insted 2S3. And probably because D-20 was enough quantity, they could have 18 howitzers in battalion. So +72/72/48

One yager infantry brigade. There is few info about it, but it 100 % had battalion of 2S1. +18 122 mm

Next, 4 Air-assault/airborne brigades: 2 battalions of 122 mm howitzers in each (D-30 and 2S1) + MLRS battalion (12 Grad), also one BTG in 80th brigade has own arty battalion (18 D-30), also separate artillery battalion of Air-Assault Command level (12 2S3), So +162/12/48

Next, 2 Marines brigades - each had 18 2S1 and 12 Grad-1. Also at least two separate battalions of theese brigades had own 2S1 batteies. So +48/0/24

National Guard. Among all units there are 5 x 122 mm battalions and one 122 mm battery = 96 x 122 mm (2S1, D-30)

So pre-war ground forces brigade level required 648 x 122 mm, 252 x 152 mm, 288 x 122 mm MLRS

Artillery brigades 5 in Ground Forces and one in Naval Forces. I assume they had reduced 4-barrel batteries too, so we should have 18 x 152 mm battalions (2S19, 2S5, 2A65, 2A36) with 212 barrels and 4 x 203 mm battalions (2S7) with 48 barrels.

MLRS brigades - 3 in Ground Forces and 1 in Naval Forces. Total 6 battalions of 220 mm Uragan per 8 in each = 48 launchers, and 11 battalions of 300 mm Smerch/Vil'kha per 4 in each = 44 launchers

Missile brigade:  4 battalions of Tochka-U = 12...16 launchers

Since the war began, Reserve Corps was depolyed 3 tank, 3 mech., 3 infantry/yager, 2 air-assault and 2 artillery brigades. This is potentially +234 x 122 mm howitzers, at least 108 x 152 mm howitzeres, 120 x 122 mm MLRS and 72 x 152 mm long-range howitzers (2A65)

Territorial defense brigades don't have artillery (except MT-12), looks like some of them received D-20, but this more exception, so I will not count them. 

So, totally we should have:

882 x 122 mm howitzers (147 batteries). I think, they still in service, because a lot of ammunition remained. But Air-assault and marines units probably will be betetr to re-arm on 105 mm caliber (35 batteries). Or to made one battalion on M777 and the second on L118. M777 is light and mobile howitzer, it should be in mobile units, I think, but because of its range, theese howitzers now first of all go to artillery brigades. 

360 x 152 mm howitzers (69 batteries). Or to reach all full-strenght batteries in 6 barrels we should have 486 x 152 mm howitzers. I see M109 or Krab, replacing 2S3/D-20

212 x 152 mm long-range guns/howitzers (53 battreies). Or 318 barrels for full-strength. Caesar, Pz2000 or our perspective Bohdana is our future in this class.

420 x 122 mm Grad-class MLRS (35 batteries). Or 630 launchers for full-strength battalions. I think, Grads can be taken from former Warsaw pact/Aisa/Africa stores. In future we are capable to close this class with own developments.

48 x 220 mm Uragan (6 batteries). This is dead end Soviet MLRS branch. After the war we should say goodbye to it. But Uragans can be substituted with M270 MLRS. 

44 x 300 mm Smerch (11 batteries). M270 ATACMS or HIMARS critically needs to this class! Or at least future modifications of our Vil'kha

16 x ballistic missile launchers. HIMARS ATACMS. Or our Hrim-2 in future.  

Of course for reserve and losses substitution we should have +20-30% more of each class. 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR troops near Davydiv Brid, Kherson oblast. Looks like the video of Krasnopol hit was about this group

 

 

[Armorgunner]

As an answer to Nazirussian threats, against Sweden after our NATO application. 2nd of June Several big NATO ships will enter the Capital Stockholm.

Among them:

From USA: US Marine USS Gunston Hall, USS Mount Whitney, Arleigh Burke class Guided missile Destroyer USS Porter!

From GB: The British Airdefence destroyer HMS Defefender!

From Lithuania: The Lithuanian LNS Jotvingis, and LNS Krusis!

From Germany: FGS Fulda, FGS Homburg, FGS Brausweig, and FGS Sachsen!

From Poland: ORP Druzno!

From Estonia:  EML Admiral Cowa, and EML Sakala,

From Belgium: BNS Primula!

From The Netherlands: HMNLS Willemstad, and HMNLS Vlaardingen.

From Latvia: HNoMS Vale!!!

Unannounced: USS Kearsarge

 

Its a show of force, to the Nazirussians!!

 

Edit: Its 2nd June, not July. As I wrote first! And Putins friend, Macron. Sends not a single ship! Just a note!

Edited May 30, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Cogust]

Ýeah, the Swedish Navy celebrates 500 years this year.

[sross112]

A couple times in the past someone posted graphs of daily missile strikes and air sorties by Russia. Haven't seen one in awhile and was wondering how their operational tempo compared. Anyone know where to find said graphs? Thanks.

[Harmon Rabb]

Some new videos from around Kherson.

[dan/california]

Steve, please don't ban me for asking this?........ Tank riders in the next version/module of CMBS? 

[dan/california]

It looks like the Ukrainians are finally pulling/getting pushed out of Severodonetsk.

 

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Armorgunner said:

As an answer to Nazirussian threats, against Sweden after our NATO application. 2nd of June Several big NATO ships will enter the Capital Stockholm.

Among them:

From USA: US Marine USS Gunston Hall, USS Mount Whitney, Arleigh Burke class Guided missile Destroyer USS Porter!

From GB: The British Airdefence destroyer HMS Defefender!

From Lithuania: The Lithuanian LNS Jotvingis, and LNS Krusis!

From Germany: FGS Fulda, FGS Homburg, FGS Brausweig, and FGS Sachsen!

From Poland: ORP Druzno!

From Estonia:  EML Admiral Cowa, and EML Sakala,

From Belgium: BNS Primula!

From The Netherlands: HMNLS Willemstad, and HMNLS Vlaardingen.

From Latvia: HNoMS Vale!!!

Unannounced: USS Kearsarge

 

Its a show of force, to the Nazirussians!!

 

Edit: Its 2nd June, not July. As I wrote first! And Putins friend, Macron. Sends not a single ship! Just a note!

Well, to be fair, geography does seem to be a big factor in who's sending ships...I notice that Canada, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Turkey and even Norway also don't have anything on that list.

Also, minor point - HNoMS Vale was the old Norwegian name and prefix for LVNS Virsaitis.

And happy 500th anniversary to the Swedish Navy!

The name prefix HMS is about to get confusing in NATO...

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Meanwhile, it looks very much to me like the RA is building up for an intensive bombardment of Sloviansk, which is a key road/rail junction for sustaining the UA Donbas salient. Kiev Independent had 2 reports, one of a buildup of 120 new 'pieces of equipment' and another re withdrawal of mobile forces from the Lyman area.

There was also a report of PMP bridging equipment, but I find it doubtful that they will have the forces to seriously attempt a river crossing in the Lyman sector, even once they finally clear the north bank.

A couple of days ago there was a drone strike video posted where (IIRC) two trucks with PMPs were hit supposedly within the last week and supposedly in the Lyman area.  They were not in the process of being utilized at the time they were struck.  When I went back to post it here I couldn't find it again.  Whomever posted it pretty much had the same idea we did... not likely going to be of much practical use.

Steve

[Machor]

17 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But also for the sake of the Russian and Siberian and Caucasian kids whose lives are being thrown away so wantonly by an evil elite that views them as cattle.

History, of course, suggests things could drag on, against all sense and reason, for much longer than we think....

Sorry to reply to your same post twice, LLF, but we now get to hear this from the horse's mouth, so to speak:

 

[Machor]

Latest BBC report from the front (Donbas):

'I watched from afar Russia’s latest merciless assault on Severodonetsk'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050

"Some Western commentators believe Ukraine should submit to end the destruction and cede its territory. But, for the weary Ukrainian defenders facing the Russian onslaught, that is unthinkable. In fact, the losses they have suffered have only galvanised their belief that the enemy must be stopped and pushed back.

Vladimir Putin gambled big - and lost - on taking all of Ukraine, so perhaps that explains the enormous resources he is throwing at achieving a tactical win in Donbas. But a Kremlin victory here won't mean defeat for Ukraine.

I ask the unnamed guardsman, tired after months of battle, but still here at front, what it will take to win?

"There is a sky, and the sky is ours. Drones are helping a lot. Weapons have arrived and multiple rocket launchers. America, lend-lease…" he tells me. "The only question is time. It's time and that's it. And then everything will be Ukraine.""

[Machor]

There's playing soldiers, and then there's playing soldiers: Ukrainian boys play with abandoned Russian armour:

Ukraine's desperate artillery situation: 85mm D-44 in action:

US RQ-20 Puma drones in Ukrainian service; said to have TI and laser designator:

 

[Machor]

Russian armour and truck in Ukrainian service; all go on the 1/35 bucket list:

BMD-2:

T-72B3:

KAMAZ:

And a critically endangered beast in the wild - T-84 Oplot: