How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vanir Ausf B]

10 minutes ago, Canada Guy said:

1 - I am shocked that Italy has done so little compared to its GDP. If they have supplied items, it has either been very little or completely off the radar. There can't be that many pro-Putinites or I will have to scratch it off my bucket list

They are definitely keeping it on the low down. But they have provided... some stuff. How much is hard to say.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Back to a pure military topic.

A few days ago we were talking about possible options for the Ukrainians in the south.  I said how foolish it would be to try and push through Kherson towards Crimea, instead they should come down from the eastern side of the Dnepr as they are already over the river.  Plus, what are the chances that Russia wouldn't attempt to blow the bridge in Ukraine's face?

The ISW report from the 26th went into more details about the Russians on the western side of the Dnepr preparing fortifications.  Previous reports said they are pouring concrete strong points, this report said they are making a 3rd line of defenses.  It will be costly to tackle those.

So it suddenly occurred to me... why should the Kherson bridge remain standing?  If it is no practical military use for Ukraine, why should it remain in service of Russia for definite military gain?  I'm not saying it would be easy to demolish the bridge (I presume, ha-ha, that it's well guarded), but it's worth the effort.  Taking that out would screw over all the Russian forces on that side of the river big time.  There's no practical alternative to supplying them except by that bridge. 

I can't think of exactly how Ukraine could take out the bridge now, but they've struck me as a pretty clever "can do" sort of people   I think if they put their minds to it they could figure out a way to do it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Counter battery fire video.  Russian mortar team in a pit behind the blue roofed building.  Looks like a number of rounds fired by Ukraine go very wide of target, but eventually nail the vicinity of the mortar.  Impossible to tell from the video what damage, if any, was done to the enemy.  They might have even displaced before the close hit.  At the very least they probably interdicted more fire from that particular mortar against whatever the specific target was.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Short article on negotiations between US and Ukraine about the potential use of new long range systems:

https://censor-net.translate.goog/ua/news/3344135/ssha_domovlyayutsya_z_ukrayinoyu_pro_obmejennya_schodo_vykorystannya_amerykanskoyi_zbroyi_reuters?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CeBgm9dM_Y9/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Once again. crazy footages and of course there is a drone shot as well...

 

[Battlefront.com]

Schlottman thinks he's ID'd most of the units in Popasna.  As for the 76th's contribution, based on KIA reports from Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade, they are from the 234th RGT.  Earlier guessing had it as the 106th RGT (also from 76th).  It could be that it's a mix-mash of personnel from both RGTs?

 

[Gpig]

30 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Once again. crazy footages and of course there is a drone shot as well...

Amazing. what type of AT weapons are in use there?

Edited May 27, 2022 by Gpig

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Gpig said:

Amazing. what type of AT weapons are in use there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MATADOR

[Anon052]

36 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CeBgm9dM_Y9/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Once again. crazy footages and of course there is a drone shot as well...

 

Interesting those guys seem to be fighters of the Ukraine Foreign Legion? There is not so much news of them any more.

[Taranis]

"Pro-Russian army fighters on patrol in Popasna in the Luhansk region, May 26, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS"

* BTR-MDM (probably from a BTG from 76 or 106 VDV Div)

Edited May 27, 2022 by Taranis

[Panserjeger]

7 hours ago, sross112 said:

On a serious note, does anyone know what happened to the almost 1000 M109's that were replaced by the Pzh2000 systems in the European armies? If there is a significant number of them in storage they would be a good option to get moving to the UA to help them ween off the 152mm before their ammo reserves get critical. I think most of them were A2's and A3's but those should be really comparable to what the UA is running now so no real loss in capability. They also would have the ability to be upgraded significantly as time went on.

Around 20 Norwegian M109´s (replaced by K9 Thunder) were taken out of storage late April for firing tests, and recently the US confirmed that Norway were sending artillery to Ukraine. When asked by journalists the Defence Department declined to comment on the quantity and type of weapon, but I think it is safe to say that at least 20 M109 are on their way (we had 55 in storage, but not all were operational).

Norway are not announcing weapon shipments anymore, but it is clear that at least 2000 M72 LAWs, 100 Mistral MANPADs and several thousand helmets, vests, uniforms and field rations have been sent. There are also rumours about the NSM (Naval Strike Missile) that is produced by Norway and have been requested by Ukraine, but the government is refusing to comment.

[Huba]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Very informative and well presented article.  Thank you for that.

One thing that was not said is that by providing Ukraine the basic platform, the option to provide more sophisticated munitions at a later date becomes easier.  For example, Ukraine approachs the US and say "we need 2 missiles to attack X military target 300km away.  We agree to all the security protocols and guarrantees you require.  How about it?".  If they already have the basic systems in Ukraine operated by competent Ukrainian forces, this is theoretically viable within a short period of time (week?).

So let's not count out what MIGHT happen in the future based only on what we know today.

Steve

This is a very good point indeed! Trickling down the true long range weapons seems a very viable tactic, giving US almost full control of the escalation on one hand, and Ukrainians the ability to strike critical targets if they choose to on the other.

One thing to watch for is combat debut of ER-GMLRS rockets, which AFAIK are just entering production - it's a nice intermediary capability between GMLRS and ATACMS with marketed 150km range.

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

BMPTs in combat, only photos thus far:

Also, UK jumps on the MLRS bandwagon:

 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Huba

[Armorgunner]

AMAZING film from helmet camera. The same some shows fotos from a few replies back.

 

aftermath

 

 

[Taranis]

Russian BMPT Terminator tank support infantry fighting vehicles were deployed in combat in Luhansk Oblast- they were struck by Ukrainian artillery fire, but survived

 

 

[Haiduk]

On 5/26/2022 at 4:08 AM, akd said:

Tachanka?

More like Tachank-YEAH!

+1 to collection. Siverodonetsk

[Haiduk]

On 5/26/2022 at 4:22 AM, akd said:

Trench warfare 2022:

In second half, @1:03 pretty sure a UKR soldier tosses a grenade back right before it detonates.

Forward position "Raschioska" (eng. "hairbrush") in front of "checkpoint 29" - large company strongpoint near Novotoshkivske, Luhansk oblast. This is first week of war, recon platoon of 4th LPR motor-rifle brigade participated in assault. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[AlsatianFelix]

47 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

AMAZING film from helmet camera. The same some shows fotos from a few replies back.

 

aftermath

 

 

Is Brian British or American? And is he still go go going? I hope so. Slava!

[Haiduk]

On 5/26/2022 at 9:45 AM, SeinfeldRules said:

Some points I found relevant:

It seemed the commander was doing his own observing and calls for fire. This is contrary to a lot of Western Doctrine, where artillery units are a delivery service to support a maneuver unit’s request for fire. Here there doesn’t seem to be any “land owner” that’s dictating fire. 

This is howitzers of 2S1 artillery battalion of 92nd mech.brigade and looks like this is NE from Kharkiv. More likely they got information from brgade's recons or infantry that "in village X spotted some ememy forces", so artillery started own work. Spotters now have drones, so they do not have to be close to infantry lines to spot the target and transmit the data for firing. Though, as told their commander, UAVs not always can be useful, so old-school optical artillery recon remains in demand.

They use DJI drone, it can have range in 6-10 km, so they enough close to target. Usually artillery battalions have specialized UAVs Furia for artillery adjustment, but also they use commercial drones like AUTEL or DJI for preliminary of additional recon of targets if the range allows.  

Interesting, that the commander of battalion in command of the firing of platoon or reduced battery. Probably he is just very experienced. Also we can see battery commander. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[AlsatianFelix]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

There are times you have to take a calculated risk, and accept that life isn't perfect. Every munition we send to Ukraine is being used to kill the army that those munitions were BUILT to kill. The only other two opponents that could really stress the U.S. military are China, and Iran.  And since I think the U.S. has ZERO appetite for another mideast war, that pretty much leaves China. Unless we are going to start shipping HIMARS to Taiwan in en masse, now, today, we need to start shipping them to Ukraine. If we need a whole new factory for GMLRS, then start pouring concrete. And yes I know it will take three years to get the first missile out the door of the new facility. But it will take 3 years plus how ever long we bleep around before starting on it, SO START.

Pour the factory floor now.

One of the simplest conclusions that I understood from Tooze's Wages of Destruction is that the Soviets beat the Germans because Germany never structured their economy and arms production into a 5-year plan to win the war. All of Germany's plans were a cycle of:  Win-the-war-in-the-next-6 months. Recover/retool/refit. Win-the-war-in-the-next-6 months. Recover/retool/refit. Win-the-war-in-the-next-6 months, etc. 

It never quite worked.

[Haiduk]

20 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good examples about how hard it is to spot a Javelin launch.  Not much smoke profile at any point.  And if the gunner is behind something to further obscure the backblast, well... the victim isn't likely going to see it coming and the survivors aren't going to know where it came from.

Steve

Several days ago in Kyiv were burials of recon from 93rd brigade, he was in tank-hunter team, armed with Javelin, but Russian tank could spot it first... Javelin is good stuff, but it requires enough many time to lock on target, theese seconds can cost a life.. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Aha, my impression was they were about a 1-2 companies in number, max. Is the regiment designation indicative of actual ORBAT and TOE? Is it kitted, equipped and training as a unified force?

Or is it a shell formation to gather various disparate units under?

Curious of their actual numbers and organization adjacent to the UA regular army.  I'm assuming their being treated as TDF type formation?

I think, their real number is about battalion. For example, despite Azov calls itself "regiment", indeed official name of this unit "special purpose detachment" and it pre-war structure more corresponded to BTG (own tanks, arty, etc)

All foreign and volunteer units are not TD. They are under subordination of GUR (Intelligence directorate) or SBU. They are considered as "special purpose units", but not a level of SOF.  

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

I think, their real number is about battalion. For example, despite Azov calls itself "regiment", indeed official name of this unit "special purpose detachment" and it pre-war structure more corresponded to BTG (own tanks, arty, etc)

All foreign and volunteer units are not TD. They are under subordination of GUR (Intelligence directorate) or SBU. They are considered as "special purpose units", but not a level of SOF.  

Out of likes, so thanks for the explanation! It really makes sense, many of these guys are probably worth more politically than strictly militarily anyway, as in case of Belarusians - no matter how great fighters, the political potential vis a vis Belarus is more important.

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

 

VDV Maj. Alexander Denisov, unit unknown

 

@sburke @Kinophile

He was a deputy of battalion commander of 137th guard airborne regiment of 106th guard airborne division

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Back to a pure military topic.

A few days ago we were talking about possible options for the Ukrainians in the south.  I said how foolish it would be to try and push through Kherson towards Crimea, instead they should come down from the eastern side of the Dnepr as they are already over the river.  Plus, what are the chances that Russia wouldn't attempt to blow the bridge in Ukraine's face?

The ISW report from the 26th went into more details about the Russians on the western side of the Dnepr preparing fortifications.  Previous reports said they are pouring concrete strong points, this report said they are making a 3rd line of defenses.  It will be costly to tackle those.

So it suddenly occurred to me... why should the Kherson bridge remain standing?  If it is no practical military use for Ukraine, why should it remain in service of Russia for definite military gain?  I'm not saying it would be easy to demolish the bridge (I presume, ha-ha, that it's well guarded), but it's worth the effort.  Taking that out would screw over all the Russian forces on that side of the river big time.  There's no practical alternative to supplying them except by that bridge. 

I can't think of exactly how Ukraine could take out the bridge now, but they've struck me as a pretty clever "can do" sort of people   I think if they put their minds to it they could figure out a way to do it.

Steve

I called this many moons ago. Cut the bridge when counter attacking into Kherson (not viable now) or south from Zaporoizhizha. Bombard any bridging attempts but leave one up. Isolate the garrison, with a narrow golden bridge.

The danger there is of a humanitarian disaster as the RUS forces will turn on the locals even more, human shield them and also will starve them. The locals a hostage in waiting, so Khersons population needs to be exfiltrated before any real move.