How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Russian tank is guarding an infantry position, but the muzhiks can't be arsed to leave their holes to help their tank out.

The thing that still amazes me is that the tankers think it's a good idea to drive down a wooded road KNOWING there's Ukrainians with AT rockets well within range.  Especially after getting hit once already.  Total luck it wasn't knocked out.

By the looks of it the tank was distracted by the first shooter and didn't even notice it was shot at from the opposite side of the road.  The tank's second shot while on the move was actually very well placed, but obviously they didn't observe the shooter retreating (that would be nearly impossible to have seen by the looks of it).

Steve

[Bil Hardenberger]

38 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry about my flurry of posts, but most folks here seem happy to wheel in the sky over Western bougie ADD politix *yawn*.  How many divisions does Bono have?

This is some really great CM 'Level 4' style video, though somewhat edited:

Tanks vs UA rocketeers up near Kharkiv.

The Russian tank is guarding an infantry position, but the muzhiks can't be arsed to leave their holes to help their tank out.

Even the VDV, who as paratroopers are trained to use initiative and operate in small ad hoc detachments with what they can carry, seem tied to their BMDs.  Legacy of the Afgantsy and Chechen period, I guess.

Second video is pretty good.. maybe at the end there, if the tank had used target light it would have had a better chance of suppressing that retreating SOF solder.    The Russian lack of infantry really hurts them in these types of engagements obviously... and that is something that is not going to be easy for them to address.

[Offshoot]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Russian tank is guarding an infantry position, but the muzhiks can't be arsed to leave their holes to help their tank out.

There is a guy out of his hole at the start, on the right-hand side of the road. When the tank fires almost right above him I bet he wished he was back in it.

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well now, that's something

As for the discussion about Ukraine's "unforced error" about President Steinmeier, I've kept that in my mind as one of the very few mistakes that Ukraine has made in the war thus far.  Politically, it was dumb.  I'm not even sure it did anything for domestic politics, which makes it even dumber (i.e. sometimes a dumb thing on the world stage is a smart thing on the home stage).  While for sure Germany deserves quite a bit of ire from Ukraine (see above about Schröder), insulting the head of state of a country you want help from is probably never a good idea.  Dragging him around Kiyv, politely, would have been vastly smarter.

That said, Zelensky's messaging overall has been just about the best I've seen in my lifetime.  This is an opinion shared by many, if not most, of the West.  So maybe he thought they had enough clout to be aggressive in this one case.  I don't think it worked.

And finally, I think this is the meme Huba was looking for:

 

I suspect Zelensky was frustrated by Scholz duplicity.  Saying one thing, doing another, making promises he then doesn't keep.  Still, doesn't help to publicly insult while asking for charity.

And the tweet is really rather a strawman argument.  We're not within a million miles of German ground troops doing this.  All that's asked for is aid, which is generally much less than promised.  But it's a fun way to obfuscate the actual issue for whoever this fellow might be.

[Battlefront.com]

You knew it was coming, so don't act all surprised... on the ground footage of the Bilohorivka slaughter.  This appears to be walking towards the landing site along the primary road.  I expect there will be another one of the landing site soon enough.

 

[Hapless]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You knew it was coming, so don't act all surprised... on the ground footage of the Bilohorivka slaughter.  This appears to be walking towards the landing site along the primary road.  I expect there will be another one of the landing site soon enough.

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.

Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!

[Suleyman]

BMP-1s are usually used by DPR/LPR. The Russians been using an upgraded BMP-1 with a new turret and 30mm autocannon on it. It doesn't have any thermals though, so not much of a big upgrade, the armor is still not that good. 

Any truth to the Russians claims of stopping Ukrainian push from Ternova and Rubizhne and capturing the towns? I don't feel comfortable going off anybody's claims until I hear both sides and see some pictures or evidence.

[Combatintman]

6 minutes ago, Hapless said:

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.

Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!

The number of BMP-1s is interesting but what most interested me was the BMP-1KSh ... that's an HQ of some description gone ...

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Hapless said:

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.

Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!

The presence of BMP-1s was used by Russian social media guys to claim all of this destruction was, in fact, Ukrainian vehicles.  But Schlottman, IIRC, documented a Russian unit having a lot of them AND it turned out that was, in fact, one of the units involved.  So it all jibes.

Steve

[Hapless]

Huh. Delayed double post I guess.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Hapless

[DesertFox]

Hmmm

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Huh. Delayed double post I guess.

You guessed correctly

I think the presence of BMP-1s as part of established strength for a regular Russian unit is an indication of just how incomplete Russia's modernization program was prior to the war.

The unit in question is, IIRC, 74th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade.  They previously fought in the northeast region and therefore the "O" marks are consistent with this unit.

NY Times article (cited a while back) indicated it lost nearly all of its 500+ personnel in the attack.  By the looks of it, if the infantry had been with their vehicles they would have been casualties.  There is no place for them to have hidden and the amount of destruction is pretty damned bad.

Steve

[akd]

47 minutes ago, Hapless said:

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 41st CAA.

https://altyn73.livejournal.com/1388817.html

Edited May 19, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, akd said:

35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 41st CAA.

https://altyn73.livejournal.com/1388817.html

Yup, that's the one

Checking again it seems the 74th fought just north of there at Shypylivka.

Steve

[womble]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the presence of BMP-1s as part of established strength for a regular Russian unit is an indication of just how incomplete Russia's modernization program was prior to the war.

Not just a regular unit, but one with a "Guards" designation.

I remember facing BMP-1s in the only game of 1:300th modern micro armour I ever played, back in the early eighties. I wondered how "new" it was at that point, so I looked it up. It's been in service a year longer than me. 1966. Jebus. I don't suppose there are any 56-year old examples actually still fighting (or even that there were any such before Russia came over the border), but even with a cannon upgrade, that's... dated.

29 minutes ago, akd said:

35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, 41st CAA.

I also remember when "motorised" meant trucks, not APCs...  But I guess if you've over half a century of hand-me-downs from the units that got actually modernised, you can replace your trucks with APCs to move your gropos around, and keep the trucks for the log train.

[akd]

Second part of this important account from a Russian soldier is up:

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

So... lots of BMP-1s? I can kinda get seeing a few MTLBs because they're semi-ubiquitous utility vehicles, but not so many BMP-1s.

I mean, could be DPR/LPR vehicles, but committing the second-rate cannon fodder to an important operation is probably a sign of something worse.

Also: there's a chunk of BMP stuck in a tree!

@Suleyman @Combatintman

Many units of Central and especially Eastern military districts are still using BMP-1. They were both in NW "V" group (35th MRB, which also crossed Siverskyi Donets), 5th tank brigade and  in NE "O" group. 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Machor said:

100% on topic on the CMBS forum: A Russian ZALA 421-08 has supposedly been shot down by a Ukrainian Strela-10, impossible in CMBS:

Are we sure the Ukrainians haven't misidentified the Zala? Pics for comparison:

Looks like this is a part of some larger ZALA-421-16e

Edited May 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

 

Wars are always a good time for weapons systems that are in at least prototype stage.  If it's a good system, green lights for full production can come quicker than if it were peace time.

It's also a good time to prove systems that have been built, but not seen combat yet.  Russia put at least one company of T-90M (I think it was M) into Ukraine in 2014, most likely to see how they handled themselves in combat.  Of course, at the time Russia said it was just a lie, but idiot Russian tankers took pictures of themselves in front of Ukrainian road signs so. that kinda blew OPSEC

Steve

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia put at least one company of T-90M (I think it was M) into Ukraine in 2014

T-90A of 136th MRB

[Suleyman]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Suleyman @Combatintman

Many units of Central and especially Eastern military districts are still using BMP-1. They were both in NW "V" group (35th MRB, which also crossed Siverskyi Donets), 5th tank brigade and  in NE "O" group. 

Thanks for the info, I actually looked into it too after that. Old equipment

[akd]

58 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Suleyman @Combatintman

Many units of Central and especially Eastern military districts are still using BMP-1. They were both in NW "V" group (35th MRB, which also crossed Siverskyi Donets), 5th tank brigade and  in NE "O" group. 

In the article I linked above:

Quote

According to my observations, BMP-1 vehicles are available in the 35th, 57th, 60th motorized rifle brigades, in the 5th tank brigade and in the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th motorized rifle division. A number of BRM-1K reconnaissance vehicles similar in design to the BMP-1 are in separate reconnaissance battalions. The total number of BMP-1 / BRM-1 vehicles in the combat units of the Russian army at the beginning of 2019, according to my estimates, is about 300-350 units. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Heh... and there we go   I'm glad someone has a solid memory of the details from 8 years ago. 

Steve

[dan/california]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/nato-finland-sweden-republicans-russia-00033749

Republicans are on side for Swede-Fin expansion, and the $40 billion for Ukraine just passed. U.S. support looking rock solid for the foreseeable future.