How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[keas66]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is there going to be ANYONE left in the DPR by the time this is over?

Sort of makes you wonder if the general population   even really supports  or regrets the separation from Ukraine at this point  ?

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

By the way, the more things change the more they stay the same.  Currently reading Prit Buttar's Collision of Empires, eastern front 1914.  paraphrase: "the germans setup two pontoon bridges but each time troops formed up to cross the bridging sites were pounded by Russian artillery". 

From wikipedias summary of the Peloponnesian War

"Seizing its opportunity, the Spartan fleet sailed at once to the Dardanelles, the source of Athens's grain. Threatened with starvation, the Athenian fleet had no choice but to follow. Through cunning strategy, Lysander totally defeated the Athenian fleet, in 405 BC, at the Battle of Aegospotami, destroying 168 ships."

People have been fighting over the control of the grain supply from the Black Sea for 2500 years.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Sort of makes you wonder if the general population   even really supports  or regrets the separation from Ukraine at this point  ?

So far it seems they are solidly blaming Ukraine for everything, but I'm guessing that the rounding up of men and getting them pointlessly killed is going to be hard to keep that up.

The people there are largely not "deep thinkers" from what I can tell.  Those left long ago.

Steve

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Sort of makes you wonder if the general population   even really supports  or regrets the separation from Ukraine at this point  ?

Somebody proposed that Ukraine should announce full amnesty for all the LDPR citizens and soldiers and call them to surrender - I'm not sure if the moment is ripe for it yet, but sounds like something to do at one point, maybe as the general counteroffensive will start.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

So far it seems they are solidly blaming Ukraine for everything, but I'm guessing that the rounding up of men and getting them pointlessly killed is going to be hard to keep that up.

The people there are largely not "deep thinkers" from what I can tell.  Those left long ago.

Steve

You don't have to be all that deep to figure out that the people who stuck you in a badly built trench with no food or ammunition, to act as target practice for 155mm VT, are not your friends. There is also that spectacular SNAFU with making a DPLR unit hold on the Ukrainian side when the Russian units were running all the the way to Belgorod. Even really dim folks get a clue with lessons like that.

[Battlefront.com]

Video in this article showing TD guys running to the reclaimed border with Russia, posing with a border post, then (presumably) high tailing it back under cover:

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3341542/ukrainian_soldiers_reached_state_border_line_in_kharkiv_region_video

People criticize Russia's loss of the information war.  But when one side has only crap to work with and the other pure gold, well... pretty clear who is going to win that war.

Steve

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video in this article showing TD guys running to the reclaimed border with Russia, posing with a border post, then (presumably) high tailing it back under cover:

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3341542/ukrainian_soldiers_reached_state_border_line_in_kharkiv_region_video

People criticize Russia's loss of the information war.  But when one side has only crap to work with and the other pure gold, well... pretty clear who is going to win that war.

Steve

They even prepared that Border Post in advance complete with Ukrainian colors and carried it to the Border

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Video in this article showing TD guys running to the reclaimed border with Russia, posing with a border post, then (presumably) high tailing it back under cover:

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3341542/ukrainian_soldiers_reached_state_border_line_in_kharkiv_region_video

People criticize Russia's loss of the information war.  But when one side has only crap to work with and the other pure gold, well... pretty clear who is going to win that war.

Steve

ROTFLMAO an entire country with balls of steel.  Makes Putin's bare chested horseback ride downright effeminate.  Not that there is anything wrong with that.  He can try out for the role of Lady Godiva in a netflix series.

[FancyCat]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Show of hands... who here would be surprised to learn that what Russia spectacularly failed to do 7 times is something Ukraine did correctly the first time?

Seriously, if this is true (and it does feel like it) then Russia is in a world of hurt for at least the next few days.  If Ukraine can hold onto its new bridgehead then rail and road traffic from Belgorod to Izyum bridgehead (and everywhere between) is severely threatened.

Steve

Tbh i kinda assumed Ukraine would be able to cross the river, as their forces are substantially more "light infantry" than Russian forces. (I know nothing about the river or fordability) 

Also, with how the DNR and LPR forces are near worthless, unless Russia pulled in actual Russian units, I'm sure they can ford it fine. 

Now if they got mechanized or armor units across, or maybe they still have a intact bridge, sure, Russia failed spectacularly.

[FancyCat]

24 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Sort of makes you wonder if the general population   even really supports  or regrets the separation from Ukraine at this point  ?

I recall the notion that DNR and LPR were just full of pro-Russians at this point, while certainly political resistance would continue if it continue following Ukraine's liberation of the territory, i have a feeling there won't be any military or violent resistance. 

So how much of a traitor is someone who collaborated with Russia, do you suppose? Has the option for leaving Russian controlled territory for Ukraine controlled territory been in the past, doable for civilians to undertake? Or was the border locked down such that wasn't gonna happen and if you were in the DNR/LPR, that was it, no hope of leaving for Kiev? Or could you have simply gone to Russia and then crossed again into Ukraine? 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Tbh i kinda assumed Ukraine would be able to cross the river, as their forces are substantially more "light infantry" than Russian forces. (I know nothing about the river or fordability) 

Also, with how the DNR and LPR forces are near worthless, unless Russia pulled in actual Russian units, I'm sure they can ford it fine. 

Now if they got mechanized or armor units across, or maybe they still have a intact bridge, sure, Russia failed spectacularly.

The crossing in Stary Saltiv is a very specific case - there's an artificial lake on the Donets about 2km wide, cut by a concrete dyke with about 100m of bridge in the middle. Assuming the bridge is blown, it makes for a peculiar crossing point.

On one hand, it's really exposed and can be shot upon from the forested shore from a long distance.

On the other, the dyke is rather immune to artillery fire, and concrete banks should make a great fording point for anything that can swim, no risk of being bogged down in the mud.

Take a look on Street View

 

 

[Huba]

Here's brand spanking new announcement by Azov commander from Azovstal:

"The defenders of Mariupol carried out the order, despite all the difficulties, withdrew the overwhelming forces of the enemy for 82 days and allowed the Ukrainian army to regroup, train more personnel and receive a large number of weapons from partner countries.
No weapon will work without professionally trained servicemen, making them the most valuable element of the army.
In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people."

And a word of comment:

 

[AlsatianFelix]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

The crossing in Stary Saltiv is a very specific case - there's an artificial lake on the Donets about 2km wide, cut by a concrete dyke with about 100m of bridge in the middle. Assuming the bridge is blown, it makes for a peculiar crossing point.

On one hand, it's really exposed and can be shot upon from the forested shore from a long distance.

On the other, the dyke is rather immune to artillery fire, and concrete banks should make a great fording point for anything that can swim, no risk of being bogged down in the mud.

Take a look on Street View

 

 

And only one 15 meter section of bridge was dropped. The bridge abutments are medium slope at the water line and give cover. If the defended shore has barely prepared positions and little night-fighting equipment, how many infantry can you get across during the two hours before dawn with the right artillery suppression helping you out. It's not like the Russians have mobile reserve to put out the fire.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Armorgunner said:

Graphic images

Soldiers of the Ukrainian 93 motorized brigade, have defeated 3, T-72B3 Obr 2016 with Panzerfaust 3´s. And climb up on a flyedoff turret, saying "knock knock, is there any russian occupyers here" And looks down in one of the turret hatches. And one severly burned guy, had followed the turret when flying off, and sits in his place there. a bit more in the film, english subs.

 

How did they kill 3 tanks in that kind flat pan, no cover country with a Panzerfaust?

[Armorgunner]

@Battlefront.com

Seriously! After this is over. The next Game Engine uppdate, should include flying turrets for Russian tanks! They seem to divorce from the tank, at their first little disagreement 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Huba]

1 minute ago, AlsatianFelix said:

And only one 15 meter section of bridge was dropped. The bridge abutments are medium slope at the water line and give cover. If the defended shore has barely prepared positions and little night-fighting equipment, how many infantry can you get across during the two hours before dawn with the right artillery suppression helping you out. It's not like the Russians have mobile reserve to put out the fire.

This is one application where electric outboard engines would be really great, just wait for a foggy night and creep to the other side. With a proper second echelon ready of course.

[Armorgunner]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

How did they kill 3 tanks in that kind flat pan, no cover country with a Panzerfaust?

You dont see whats behind the guys? It might be just 100-200 meter from ambushterrain? Who knows, but the guys there

[FancyCat]

I've been pondering the increase in the frontline assuming Ukraine expands across the east of the Donets, its kind of insane, that the potential for Ukraine to turn Kup'yans'k into a frontline contested town is possible. Iyzum, assuming the Russians haven't been scrambling to move stuff east of the Oskii, becomes this pocket for Ukraine to hit on 3 sides. Putin better have some reserves to push to defend the Donets river cause wtf, you just let them in, like there must be Russian forces covering the entire river span.....right? 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

Sort of makes you wonder if the general population   even really supports  or regrets the separation from Ukraine at this point  ?

What do you mean by separation? Nobody ever separated from Ukraine.

[CAZmaj]

Non-satisfactory performance, not fully qualified to command a significantly expanded and new military force?

Ukraine's president replaces head of Territorial Defence Forces

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-president-replaces-head-territorial-defence-forces-2022-05-16/

KYIV, May 16 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has replaced the head of its Territorial Defence Forces nearly three months into the war with Russia without giving a reason.

The Defence Ministry said on Monday Zelenskiy had appointed Major General Ihor Tantsyura to take over from Yuriy Halushkin as commander of the forces that are helping the Ukrainian army defend the country following Russia's invasion on Feb. 24.

The ministry described Tantsyura as an experienced officer who was previously chief of staff of Ukraine's ground forces.

It said the Territorial Defence Forces had grown rapidly since being established shortly before the invasion and were playing an important role in the conflict with Russia.

"The explosive growth of the structure, especially in conditions of intense combat, is a huge experience, (with)mistakes and achievements. There are successes and, unfortunately, losses," the ministry said in a statement.

The Defence Ministry said separately on Monday that a Territorial Defence Forces battalion had advanced as far as the border with Russia after repelling Russian forces attacking the northeastern city of Kharkiv. read more

Reporting by Natalia Zinets, Editing by Timothy Heritage

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, poesel said:

How did they kill 3 tanks in that kind flat pan, no cover country with a Panzerfaust?

Ukrainian fields are interspersed by artificial lines of trees, as shown in the game.

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Non-satisfactory performance, not fully qualified to command a significantly expanded and new military force?

Ukraine's president replaces head of Territorial Defence Forces

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-president-replaces-head-territorial-defence-forces-2022-05-16/

KYIV, May 16 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has replaced the head of its Territorial Defence Forces nearly three months into the war with Russia without giving a reason.

The Defence Ministry said on Monday Zelenskiy had appointed Major General Ihor Tantsyura to take over from Yuriy Halushkin as commander of the forces that are helping the Ukrainian army defend the country following Russia's invasion on Feb. 24.

The ministry described Tantsyura as an experienced officer who was previously chief of staff of Ukraine's ground forces.

It said the Territorial Defence Forces had grown rapidly since being established shortly before the invasion and were playing an important role in the conflict with Russia.

"The explosive growth of the structure, especially in conditions of intense combat, is a huge experience, (with)mistakes and achievements. There are successes and, unfortunately, losses," the ministry said in a statement.

The Defence Ministry said separately on Monday that a Territorial Defence Forces battalion had advanced as far as the border with Russia after repelling Russian forces attacking the northeastern city of Kharkiv. read more

Reporting by Natalia Zinets, Editing by Timothy Heritage

TD is now basically sharing a lot of the same responsibility as an army itself, incl counter-offensives - so a reason may be that a hardcore, experienced army guy is much more fit for this job now that TD's role has changed and it's not a supporting, guerilla warfare unit anymore.

Edited May 16, 2022 by kraze

[Centurian52]

On 5/13/2022 at 2:05 PM, purpheart23 said:

No I can't, but I never argued that. Nowhere in any post that I made to I say I don't want to assist Ukraine in defeating Russia. Because I do, I just keep getting pigeon holed into defending my stance and inferred that I have some particular liking to a particular political side, I don't, I despise all politicians. All I want is accountability to the people of the United States for where our money is spent, regardless of who pays for it, it's coming out of our coffers and it should be measured. After the last two money pits of conflicts we've been vested in I think it's the least we should ask for. All my opinion of course.

A little skepticism about military spending is understandable after the last two wars. But it is worth remembering that Ukraine is fundamentally different from Afghanistan and Iraq. Those two wars had absolutely no influence on our security or our larger strategic interests. We lost Afghanistan just about as hard as it is possible to lose a war, and it ultimately meant nothing. Our position is not the slightest bit weaker for our defeat, which I think really drives home just how much wasted effort went into delaying it. Iraq we somehow managed to win, in the sense that the government we installed is still in place without our continued presence being needed to prop it up. But our position in the world is not the slightest bit stronger for that victory. The money, effort, and lives we poured into those wars really were completely wasted (and I really hope my words here are interpreted as more tragic than callous). So yeah, I get it. I understand feeling a bit jaded about any sort of military spending.

But, unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Ukraine is absolutely central to our security and our interests. The outcome of this war really will make a big difference to our security and position in the world. Every dime we put into aiding the Ukrainians goes directly to improving the security of our European allies and weakening one of our greatest and oldest adversaries. And frankly Ukraine will be cheaper overall than Iraq and Afghanistan (probably). We spent north of 2 trillion dollars on Iraq and Afghanistan (~2.5 trillion based on my crude google efforts, assuming the top results were correct). I think we should be spending hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, but I doubt it will take anything on the order of trillions of dollars to decisively beat Russia in Ukraine (Russia would have to sustain the fight for years for it to breach the trillions for us, and I don't think that's on the table for them). Although, I would still be in favor of helping Ukraine even if it turned out to be more expensive overall than Iraq and Afghanistan.

Granting that it may take a few hundred billion more to rebuild Ukraine after the war, and that might top a trillion overall when added to the wartime aid. But it would be money well spent. Not only is there the ethical side, where that money would go towards improving the lives of 40+ million people. But it would also be a huge benefit for us strategically, as we would almost certainly gain a longtime ally in Ukraine in just the part of the world where another ally could really matter. And because I have heard a million and a half people say that we shouldn't be engaged in nation building let me preempt any complaints that you may have on that front. This would be completely different from Iraq and Afghanistan in terms of nation building. In Iraq and Afghanistan we were trying to build up countries with populations that viewed us as invaders (because, let's be honest, that's exactly what we were). In Ukraine we would be giving the Ukrainian government the money to rebuild their own country after helping them to repel their invaders. So the local resistance to nation building that we encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan simply wouldn't be present in Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, kraze said:

What do you mean by separation? Nobody ever separated from Ukraine.

What the poster meant was "separated in the minds of the DLPR population", not the reality of it being or not being part of Ukraine.

What do you know about the mentality of the people who remain in DPLR today?  Are they all brainwashed into thinking Russia is their savior and the rest of Ukraine is full of Nazis?

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

Igor Girkin is calling it.