How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Armorgunner]

A Good short summary of the first 80 days of fighting, from MWI at West Point!

https://mwi.usma.edu/the-worst-laid-plans-the-next-phase-of-russias-war-in-ukraine/

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Combatintman]

17 minutes ago, c3k said:

I agree. 

Anything the 155 can do...the 203 can do bigger.

The 2S7 Pion has a 203mm gun with a length of 56 calibers. I'm seeing published ranges of 37km to 47km (I'm not sure if that's with rocket-assisted projectiles). I think RAP would tend to induce accuracy issues, but I am not an expert in that, just applying some "gut feel" to what a rocket motor would do to a ballistic projectile. Minor differences in the boost motor would affect the shell dispersion, IMO.

That's why the excaliber is so important: not only is it boosted (via base bleed for less drag, not a "push") but it has "glide" and guidance capability. That counteracts (and improves upon) any irregularities in the base bleed or fin extension system.

The US 155s are all L39 and show a non-boosted range ~24km.  Excaliber pushes it to 40km.

The European 155s are L52 and have longer ranges. PzH2000, non-boosted, about 35km.

(The experimental program to replace the current M109 with an L58 cannon, coupled with a RAP round, may have a range of 70km up to 100km (with other changes). They've got a new acronym for whatever the new SP Arty would be.)

I would think sustained fire is far easier to do with a cannon than with missiles or rockets.

A modern 8" cannon with excaliber-type projectile would be...impressive.

Personally I think this is an overly platform-focused viewpoint.

• How many 203s are out there - or more importantly where they need to be to have the desired effect?
• Are the ISR assets able to find the targets that need to be engaged to achieve the desired effect?
• What is the shooter to sensor link like?
• What effect do you want your gunnery to have?
• How is that effect coordinated with manoeuvre and other elements?
• etc ...

[Armorgunner]

50 minutes ago, c3k said:

I agree. 

Anything the 155 can do...the 203 can do bigger.

The 2S7 Pion has a 203mm gun with a length of 56 calibers. I'm seeing published ranges of 37km to 47km (I'm not sure if that's with rocket-assisted projectiles). I think RAP would tend to induce accuracy issues, but I am not an expert in that, just applying some "gut feel" to what a rocket motor would do to a ballistic projectile. Minor differences in the boost motor would affect the shell dispersion, IMO.

That's why the excaliber is so important: not only is it boosted (via base bleed for less drag, not a "push") but it has "glide" and guidance capability. That counteracts (and improves upon) any irregularities in the base bleed or fin extension system.

The US 155s are all L39 and show a non-boosted range ~24km.  Excaliber pushes it to 40km.

The European 155s are L52 and have longer ranges. PzH2000, non-boosted, about 35km.

(The experimental program to replace the current M109 with an L58 cannon, coupled with a RAP round, may have a range of 70km up to 100km (with other changes). They've got a new acronym for whatever the new SP Arty would be.)

I would think sustained fire is far easier to do with a cannon than with missiles or rockets.

A modern 8" cannon with excaliber-type projectile would be...impressive.

But how much explosivepower a minute, can a 203mm 2S7 Pion deliver? If a modern 155mm can deliver 8-10 rounds/min, and the 2S7 can fire 1-2 rounds/min Before leaving position. Due to counterfire?

 

The Panzerhaubitze 2000 has the same range, and very high rate of fire. And fast time to leave. To be fare away from counterfire. The 2S7 has a time of 3-5 minutes to dismantle

Edited May 13, 2022 by Armorgunner

[womble]

12 minutes ago, c3k said:

(The experimental program to replace the current M109 with an L58 cannon, coupled with a RAP round, may have a range of 70km up to 100km (with other changes). They've got a new acronym for whatever the new SP Arty would be.)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1299

ERCA? ~70miles with the XM1113 RAP, according to that wikipedia page... Still a six-inch gun not eight, though

[Huba]

Ehm, are getting into discussion about 8" fire support (that Marines SCREAM FOR!!!)? I'm pretty sure that was already resolved with conclusion that rockets are the way to go for everything above 155mm.

[Armorgunner]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Ehm, are getting into discussion about 8" fire support (that Marines SCREAM FOR!!!)? I'm pretty sure that was already resolved with conclusion that rockets are the way to go for everything above 155mm.

that is my opinion too!

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

And this is true. Our military experts pointed that Russians shifted own effort exactly on "Plan D" - to encircle UKR forces between Popasna and Rubizhne-Lysychansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration. Russians are still massing forces - reportedly, as claimed the chief of military-civil admministration of Luhansk oblast, during last day there was spotted a movement of 2000 vehicles through Luhansk oblast to combat zone. Looks like Russians are throwing in the battle own reserves and now exactly this group will conduct main strike, not Izium group. The latter will only suport their efforts, operating N and NW from Lyman 

The bit from above quote that caught my attention was "Looks like Russians are throwing in the battle own reserves".  Yes, please throw in everything you've got Putin.  It'll make it that much easier to come in behind and cut off your LOCs on that huge front you've got. 

Yes, Putin, throw more increasingly bad troops into one area, stripping them from other sectors.  Oh, if you could also place all your artillery in that one area that would also be appreciated.  Thanks, in advance.

[Armorgunner]

And the russians think they are 14 years old, with pelletguns hunting birds! 

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

24 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

But how much explosivepower a minute, can a 203mm 2S7 Pion deliver? If a modern 155mm can deliver 8-10 rounds/min, and the 2S7 can fire 1-2 rounds/min Before leaving position. Due to counterfire?

Well, Pion/Malka's advantage is longer range + greater effect on hardened targets. So its primary use is counterbattery and destruction of hardened targets.

[Haiduk]

The chief of Luhansk oblast MCA claimed in the morning Russians conducted the fifth attempt to put the pontoon, and he hopes our artillery will hit it as well as previous four. 

In the middle of the day military jourmalist Yuryi Butusov, reported from Bilohorivka area that Russian attempts to make bridgeheads in Dronivka, Bilohorivka and Serebrianka completely failed and their troops either destroyed or expelled from bridgeheads, so 8-day battle on th ebanks of Siverskyi Donets is completed and he is going to write soon about this in details. Though, Butusov Is often wishful thinking, but lets's see... He wrote he, as if, was an eyewitness of Russian withrawal from Bilohorivka. 

Russian discussion on Lostarmour as if also confirms Russians lost Bilohorivka completely. Girkin-Strelkov wrote about total senseless pogrom on Siverskyi Donets and heavy losses in personnel, including units' top brass. But who knows, maybe Dvornicov will make another attempt...

And again we have seen repeating of the WWII history - battle for Pryvil'ne bridgehead. On 8-9th of May 1943 in the same place, but in area of Privil'ne  - Shypylove villages (8 km NE from Bilohorivka), Red Army launched operation to seiz Pryvil'ne settlement and from there advance to Lysychansk. There were hills around, which Germans turned out in heavy fortified zone. Four sapper battalions were involved on 9th of May additionally to maintain crossing of three rifle divisions. Despite Red Army managed to hook on enemy's bank of river, they couldn't advance to expand bridgehead - Germans fill the area with artillery and bombed with aviation. After  25th of May both sides exhausted and stood on positions. After 17th July during Izium-Barvenkovo operation Red Army tried again to attack on Lysychansk direction from bridgehead, but again was stopped. Only on 2nd of September 1943 they could breakthrow German defense and liberate Lysychansk 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Armorgunner]

8 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Well, Pion/Malka's advantage is longer range + greater effect on hardened targets. So its primary use is counterbattery and destruction of hardened targets.

With basebleed ammo, Pzhaubitze 2000 has the same range. Faster setup, and faster leave times! But a lot of more ammo in the air, during the first 30-60 seconds. Then you have to leave anyway. And the dismantletime of 3-5 minutes, for the 2S7, gets it killed. If Ukraine has an Artilleryradar in range! 

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The chief of Luhansk oblast MCA claimed in the morning Russians conducted the fifth attempt to put the pontoon, and he hopes our artillery will hit it as well as previous four. 

In the middle of the day military jourmalist Yuryi Butusov, reported from Bilohorivka area that Russian attempts to make bridgeheads in Dronivka, Bilohorivka and Serebrianka completely failed and their troops either destroyed or expelled from bridgeheads, so 8-day battle on th ebanks of Siverskyi Donets is completed and he is going to write soon about this in details. Though, Butusov Is often wishful thinking, but lets's see... He wrote he, as if, was an eyewitness of Russian withrawal from Bilohorivka. 

Russian discussion on Lostarmour as if also confirms Russians lost Bilohorivka completely. Girkin-Strelkov wrote about total senseless pogrom on Siverskyi Donets and heavy losses in personnel, including units' top brass. But who knows, maybe Dvornicov will make another attempt...

And again we have seen repeating of the WWII history - battle for Pryvil'ne bridgehead. On 8-9th of May 1943 in the same place, but in area of Privil'ne  - Shypylove villages (8 km NE from Bilohorivka), Red Army launched operation to seiz Pryvil'ne settlement and from there advance to Lysychansk. There were hills around, which Germans turned out in heavy fortified zone. Four sapper battalions were involved on 9th of May additionally to maintain crossing of three rifle divisions. Despite Red Army managed to hook on enemy's bank of river, they couldn't advance to expand bridgehead - Germans fill the area with artillery and bombed with aviation. After  25th of May both sides exhausted and stood on positions. After 17th July during Izium-Barvenkovo operation Red Army tried again to attack on Lysychansk direction from bridgehead, but again was stopped. Only on 2nd of September 1943 they could breakthrow German defense and liberate Lysychansk 

Thanks for keeping us in the loop Haiduk, we really appreciate it. We so hope Ukrainian losses were light. It's always glorious to watch the Russians feed a few more battle groups to the meat grinder. I am struck over and over and over again by the fact that the current Russian general staff is not bothered to read their own history's. Maybe the fact that an operation in literally the same place was nearly suicidal for the red army against opposition with the merest fraction of the technology is that the Ukrainians now have access to didn't work out very well could have informed their planning. They don't exactly have the red armies endless reserves a manpower to play with either. 

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Well, Pion/Malka's advantage is longer range + greater effect on hardened targets. So its primary use is counterbattery and destruction of hardened targets.

Pions worked very good, firing from position in 5 km from my house to Hostomel airfield (33 km by the map). Alas, their shell hit hangar with An-225 Mriya, destroying it, when dozens of Russian VDV vehicles gathered around it for refueling ( 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

With basebleed ammo, Pzhaubitze 2000 has the same range. Faster setup, and faster leave times! But a lot of more ammo in the air, during the first 30-60 seconds. Then you have to leave anyway. And the dismantletime of 3-5 minutes, for the 2S7, gets it killed. If Ukraine has an Artilleryradar in range! 

 

Yeah, but Ukraine doesn't have them yet, and both sides use the Pion/Malka. Anyway it's not that surprising that a system that's 30 years newer beats a Cold War legacy system.

[Armorgunner]

Just now, Calamine Waffles said:

Yeah, but Ukraine doesn't have them yet, and both sides use the Pion/Malka. Anyway it's not that surprising that a system that's 30 years newer beats a Cold War legacy system.

Artilleryradar has been supplied, if thats what you mean? No Pzhaubitze yet, though! But Ukraine has BM-27, and BM-30 rocket artillery. So if thats in range?

[Calamine Waffles]

Yeah, it would massively outgun VDV artillery units as well who only have D-30s and Nonas at best.

Just now, Armorgunner said:

Artilleryradar has been supplied, if thats what you mean? No Pzhaubitze yet, though! But Ukraine has BM-27, and BM-30 rocket artillery. So if thats in range?

I meant the PzH 2000, yes. But also, rocket artillery is not a complete substitute for tube artillery, and 2S7 is generally rated as a lot more accurate.

Edited May 13, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Armorgunner]

2 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Yeah, it would massively outgun VDV artillery units as well who only have D-30s and Nonas at best.

I meant the PzH 2000, yes. But also, rocket artillery is not a complete substitute for tube artillery, and 2S7 is generally rated as a lot more accurate.

Western Rocket artillery is usually pinpoint accurat. But I can agree that BM-27, and BM-30 is not!

[Calamine Waffles]

Actually @Haiduk, I'm not sure if you'd have any information on this (at least that you could share), but do you have any idea of how well the modernised T-64BV 2017s and any of the refurbished Bulats (BM and BM2) are doing? I'm currently writing a paper comparing the BV 2017 with the T-72B3 2016 as modernisation programmes.

1 minute ago, Armorgunner said:

Western Rocket artillery is usually pinpoint accurat. But I can agree that BM-27, and BM-30 is not!

Sure, MLRS/MARS are very accurate, but their design philosophy is pretty fundamentally different to that of Uragan/Smerch.

Edited May 13, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[sburke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

This is not quite right.  ~1/2 US people don't end up paying federal income taxes.  This gets promulgated into the myth that half of america is free loading.  These are children, stay at home parents, disabled, etc plus the majority which is low income folks.  But low income folks DO pay social security and medicare taxes.  Since Social Security, and Medicare make up ~1/3 of the budget and around half of mandatory spending, they are chipping in.  And they are paying all sorts of state & local taxes.  I don't want to distract just wanted to clarify a bit.

But if anyone thinks being low income worker is free loading, they should try it for a while. 

I didn't say that!  The other Steve said that. 

[chrisl]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The chief of Luhansk oblast MCA claimed in the morning Russians conducted the fifth attempt to put the pontoon, and he hopes our artillery will hit it as well as previous four. 

In the middle of the day military jourmalist Yuryi Butusov, reported from Bilohorivka area that Russian attempts to make bridgeheads in Dronivka, Bilohorivka and Serebrianka completely failed and their troops either destroyed or expelled from bridgeheads, so 8-day battle on th ebanks of Siverskyi Donets is completed and he is going to write soon about this in details. Though, Butusov Is often wishful thinking, but lets's see... He wrote he, as if, was an eyewitness of Russian withrawal from Bilohorivka. 

The RA doesn't seem to grasp how thoroughly they're being spotted from the sky.  In restrospect, it really looks like the Russian space-trash event in November was an attempt at taking some of that out of comission.  AFAIK, it hasn't taken anything out yet.  But for the guys on the ground, they can't move anything bigger than a bicycle without getting noticed within an hour or so.  Mobile bridging equipment is big and obvious even for the lowest res commercial imaging, so you have to either have a lot of it, or have a lot of decoys, to have any chance of even getting to the river bank without getting arty rained on you.

 

[Huba]

 

[Armorgunner]

10 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Actually @Haiduk, I'm not sure if you'd have any information on this (at least that you could share), but do you have any idea of how well the modernised T-64BV 2017s and any of the refurbished Bulats (BM and BM2) are doing? I'm currently writing a paper comparing the BV 2017 with the T-72B3 2016 as modernisation programmes.

Sure, MLRS/MARS are very accurate, but their design philosophy is pretty fundamentally different to that of Uragan/Smerch.

They can lay a pre pattern, to land exactly 20 meters apart. So a lot less rockets are needed to do the job! An 18 vehicle BM-27 battalion have to empty every vehicle, and still not reciving the same result. Exept more civilians killed!

Edited May 13, 2022 by Armorgunner

[dan/california]

Let's lay out a few assumptions about what I near future for us is going to look like. For this discussion I will assume that it will be possible for systems bigger than an infantry man in a very good ghillie suit, and a drone that's trying very hard to look like a goose are capable of surviving. This may be a bad assumption in which case you wind up in a completely different place. I did not mean to imply that I meant the 2S7 specifically. I am talking about the  Panzerhaubitze 2000, fully digitized, new from the ground up version of the 2S7. Assuming that the concept of large and expensive tracked vehicles are still viable, it is my assumption that various different kinds of such vehicles are going to have to operate together in order to create a viable onion layer defense. You're not going to be able to have your artillery running around without co-located electronic warfare and point defense assets. It is also my assumption that you were logistics train is going to have to have nearly as much, maybe as much, protection as your front line assets. Autonomous drones that hunt trucks are going to be a thing very, very soon. So the trade-off I am thinking about is that a 2S7 class self-propelled howitzer certainly has a large footprint, but the logistical footprint of each shell fired would be considerably smaller than a rocket with the same throw weight. Does this matter? Does this matter enough?

Edited May 13, 2022 by dan/california

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Here’s an interesting loss: Captain 2nd Rank (Lt. Col. equivalent) Alexander Bobrov, commander 170th Minesweeper Division, 184th Water Area Protection Brigade (Novorossiysk).

 

List of vessels assigned to this Division:

170-й дивизион тральщиков
901	12660	Железняков	МТЩ	1988	в строю
770	266МЭ	Валентин Пикуль	МТЩ	2001	в строю
908	02668	Вице-адмирал Захарьин	МТЩ	2009	в строю
426	1265	Минеральные Воды	БТЩ	1990	в строю
438	1265	Лейтенант Ильин	БТЩ	1982	в резерве 1-й категории
	1251	РТ-168 (рейдовый тральщик)	РТЩ	1969
	12592	РТ-278	РТЩ	1990
506		Даурия		1968	в строю

 

Also, Maj. Ivan Zaika, possibly from 41st CAA headquarters or some subordinate unit:

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

I didn't say that!  The other Steve said that. 

oh, I knew that but now realize I wasn't clear in the quote I used.  Sorry 'bout that.