How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Cederic said:

This is frankly a worrying development. Are Ukraine running out of tractors?

All ok with tractors  But farmers are now busy working in the fields, but in free time.... )))

 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Markus86 said:

 

Disregard

[Kinophile]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/the-turkish-drone-that-changed-the-nature-of-warfare

New Yorker, but decent article about the TB2

[Harmon Rabb]

Lend Lease was signed into law by the the President of the United States today.

I think we all know why they picked May 9th as the day to sign it.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It was not in any way my my intention to offend, and i sincerely apologize. You are a twenty plus year professional at his and I am not.

 

I was basically referring to the ratios discussed in this article

https://www.army.mil/article/36324/a_historical_basis_for_force_requirements_in_counterinsurgency

Which I think is still a pretty good distillation of the conventional wisdom. Of course you can immediately descend into the weeds over how much lower lower quality indigenous forces that are nominally on your side are accounted for, and very great deal else. Until you arrive at the chart discussed above. My broader point is the we never resourced Afghanistan like we wanted to win. This was always a decision made at the political level, and almost always made rather badly. 

Allow me state AGAIN that was I not directing my previous comment at you. It has been a great privilege to follow your analysis of the current war, and I am grateful for the opportunity.

S’ok, Afghanistan was my second war, tough time etc.  Still is a bit of a trigger.  Honestly I do not think we could ever have enough resources to win that war without full occupation and then they would have ate at us for a century if we tried that.  Afghanistan needs to fix Afghanistan and there are layers of issues there that made it a doomed mission for us from the get go, which frankly makes all those kids dying there such a waste.

Anyway, don’t mind me.  From experience the math is easy at one level, and very hard the deeper you go.  The trick is figuring out which of the maths matter and when.  Sometimes one has to go with the gut and instinct, other times you need facts and stats because they can tell more than what you are seeing.  Messy miserable business all of this, but in the end someone has to do it.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

If that's correct, that's certainly another sign the Russian's wildly underestimated what was going to happen when they rolled across the border.

This does appear to not only be true, but not isolated.  We've seen a few other captured documents that tell a similar story.

What is amazing is it seems that, at least initially, they did not consolidate their units.  Instead they drove into battle with their peacetime allocations less conscripts.  This resulted in Rifle Squads of 3-4 men.  Incredible, but actually logical given their plan.

Since the first days of the war I theorized that the primary reason why we were seeing fairly small groupings of vehicles going here and there is that they had intended to blitz the entire eastern part of Ukraine.  They had to do this because they lacked the hundreds of additional BTGs that would be needed to do this sort of strategy properly.  Platoons were sent where Companies should have been, Companies were sent where Battalions should have been.  And for urban areas, entire Regiments should have been invested.

With this in mind, consolidating your Motor Rifle units means that you have less vehicles to send around to intimidate the locals.  You also lose your standard force ratios because now you've got way more tanks and support vehicles than you do motorized infantry.  The solution?  Don't consolidate your Motor Rifle units!

Egads this is bad.  However, it could be worse.  I just sketched out a logical, rational reason why under strength units were pushed into Ukraine in their peacetime organization.  It could be that I'm over thinking it and there was *NO* thought at all on the Russian side.  They just went with what they had and didn't put any more thought into it than that.

Steve

[Ultradave]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This does appear to not only be true, but not isolated.  We've seen a few other captured documents that tell a similar story.

What is amazing is it seems that, at least initially, they did not consolidate their units.  Instead they drove into battle with their peacetime allocations less conscripts.  This resulted in Rifle Squads of 3-4 men.  Incredible, but actually logical given their plan.

Since the first days of the war I theorized that the primary reason why we were seeing fairly small groupings of vehicles going here and there is that they had intended to blitz the entire eastern part of Ukraine.  They had to do this because they lacked the hundreds of additional BTGs that would be needed to do this sort of strategy properly.  Platoons were sent where Companies should have been, Companies were sent where Battalions should have been.  And for urban areas, entire Regiments should have been invested.

With this in mind, consolidating your Motor Rifle units means that you have less vehicles to send around to intimidate the locals.  You also lose your standard force ratios because now you've got way more tanks and support vehicles than you do motorized infantry.  The solution?  Don't consolidate your Motor Rifle units!

Egads this is bad.  However, it could be worse.  I just sketched out a logical, rational reason why under strength units were pushed into Ukraine in their peacetime organization.  It could be that I'm over thinking it and there was *NO* thought at all on the Russian side.  They just went with what they had and didn't put any more thought into it than that.

Steve

So Company Teams instead of BTGs eh? 

It seems if anything the thought was that there would be little resistance so it didn't particularly matter. Simplified of course, but the reality might not be far off.

Dave

[DesertFox]

Well, let´s hope this finally will get the MiG ball rolling...or flying...

 

 

[dan/california]

Trent's thread is not entirely coherent, but I am willing to believe the Ukr have committed to a next generation force wide target allocation system. Anybody else seen anything mere organized on this in English?

[akd]

The babies are cosplaying KIAs?

[akd]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Trent's thread is not entirely coherent, but I am willing to believe the Ukr have committed to a next generation force wide target allocation system. Anybody else seen anything mere organized on this in English?

@Haiduk has discussed this repeatedly here.

[SeinfeldRules]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Trent's thread is not entirely coherent, but I am willing to believe the Ukr have committed to a next generation force wide target allocation system. Anybody else seen anything mere organized on this in English?

Trent Telenko's posts on Twitter really bother me because he seems to take singular events and extrapolate them into generalities that sound good on paper and which people lap up. It started with his tires post, and if he saw the quality of some of the equipment I had as a battery commander (yes, including their tires) he'd probably have an aneurysm. I've also seen my own share of 40 mile convoys of stopped American logistical vehicles, the difference being that US soldiers got to go home after their training with some lessons learned, and the Russians didn't. And as an artillery officer I don't even want to talk about his observations about VT fuzes.

I'm not entirely sure where he is going with this thread, but having actually worked in a Division level strike cell in Iraq, processing missions from SOF, ground space owners, and targets developed within our own cell, the so called "JAG officer poisoned chain of command" is a gross over simplification at best. Yes, times to strike were lengthy, but it was designed that way and NOT due to JAG considerations, and we were certainly capable of being faster, and routinely did so when the situation required. Trying to compare a COIN oriented environment to the modern LSCO fight is ignorant, and as a OC/T who see units training Brigade level fire support in large scale combat operations on a monthly basis, we are certainly faster then the "hour" he claims we are at. From what he describes, the GIS ARTA app is very similar to the US Army's AFATDS system - designed to process a large range of target requests and associate them with a shooter. It's good to see Ukraine adopting this style of software, but it's hardly unique, and the realities of maintaining the digital communication linkages required for full functionality of the system can be hard in a contested environment. The US military has a difficult enough time doing that in the field, and we have much better comms equipment then Starlink and a lot less incoming rounds.

Sure makes for a good sounding Twitter thread though.

Edited May 9, 2022 by SeinfeldRules

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

Trent Telenko's posts on Twitter really bother me because he seems to take singular events and extrapolate them into generalities that sound good on paper and which people lap up. It started with his tires post, and if he saw the quality of some of the equipment I had as a battery commander (yes, including their tires) he'd probably have an aneurysm. I've also seen my own share of 40 mile convoys of stopped American logistical vehicles, the difference being that US soldiers got to go home after their training with some lessons learned, and the Russians didn't. And as an artillery officer I don't even want to talk about his observations about VT fuzes.

I'm not entirely sure where he is going with this thread, but having actually worked in a Division level strike cell in Iraq, processing missions from SOF, ground space owners, and targets developed within our own cell, the so called "JAG officer poisoned chain of command" is a gross over simplification at best. Yes, times to strike were lengthy, but it was designed that way and NOT due to JAG considerations, and we were certainly capable of being faster, and routinely did so when the situation required. And trying to compare a COIN orientated environment to the modern LSCO fight is ignorant, and as a OC/T who see units training Brigade level fire support in large scale combat operations on a monthly basis, we are certainly faster then the "hour" he claims we are at. From what he describes, the GIS ARTA app is very similar to the US Army's AFATDS system - designed to process a large range of target requests and associate them with a shooter. It's good to see Ukraine adopting this style of software, but it's hardly unique, and the realities of maintaining the digital communication linkages required for full functionality of the system can be hard in a contested environment. The US military has a difficult enough time doing that in the field, and we have much better comms equipment then Starlink and a lot less incoming rounds.

Sure makes for a good sounding Twitter thread though.

The above is a great example of why this board kills.

[Fenris]

Shoot and scoot - can't tell what theyre shooting at

 

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, akd said:

The babies are cosplaying KIAs?

Looks like photoshopped.  The two zeros are nearly identical (I compared them digitally) in terms of shape and anomalies.  It also looks like the little tots and other details aren't original either.  However, it's a great job by someone.  Because of that, it is now #185 in my "Funnies" folder

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

Trent Telenko's posts on Twitter really bother me because he seems to take singular events and extrapolate them into generalities that sound good on paper and which people lap up. It started with his tires post, and if he saw the quality of some of the equipment I had as a battery commander (yes, including their tires) he'd probably have an aneurysm. I've also seen my own share of 40 mile convoys of stopped American logistical vehicles, the difference being that US soldiers got to go home after their training with some lessons learned, and the Russians didn't. And as an artillery officer I don't even want to talk about his observations about VT fuzes.

I'm not entirely sure where he is going with this thread, but having actually worked in a Division level strike cell in Iraq, processing missions from SOF, ground space owners, and targets developed within our own cell, the so called "JAG officer poisoned chain of command" is a gross over simplification at best. Yes, times to strike were lengthy, but it was designed that way and NOT due to JAG considerations, and we were certainly capable of being faster, and routinely did so when the situation required. And trying to compare a COIN orientated environment to the modern LSCO fight is ignorant, and as a OC/T who see units training Brigade level fire support in large scale combat operations on a monthly basis, we are certainly faster then the "hour" he claims we are at. From what he describes, the GIS ARTA app he is describing is exactly like the US Army's AFATDS system - designed to process a large range of target requests and associate them with a shooter. It's good to see Ukraine adopting this style of software, but it's hardly unique, and the realities of maintaining the digital communication linkages required for full functionality of the system can be hard in a contested environment. The US military has a difficult enough time doing that in the field, and we have much better comms equipment then Starlink and a lot less incoming rounds.

Sure makes for a good sounding Twitter thread though.

Thanks for sharing your experience.  I'll second what Billbindc said.  Some may think I come here out of a sense of obligation, whereas I really come here to learn.  Thanks to postings like this there is plenty to learn from!

As an artillery officer you must be seeing a lot in this war worthy of taking notes on.  This is the first modern artillery war on record.  Sure, artillery duels have been seen all over the place in the last 10-20 years (including lots of it in Ukraine over the last 8), but the scale of artillery use in this war puts it into a league of its own.

If you have some time and inclination, it would be great to hear your thoughts on what you've seen in this war from your perspective.

Steve

[akd]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like photoshopped.  The two zeros are nearly identical (I compared them digitally) in terms of shape and anomalies.  It also looks like the little tots and other details aren't original either.  However, it's a great job by someone.  Because of that, it is now #185 in my "Funnies" folder

Steve

Ah, probably so.  Also looks like they removed color from the babies’ faces.  Brilliant photoshop.

[chuckdyke]

A good link and for playing the game too. 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fchannel%2FUC_CBzjN4nBKwq4mT8ezon1g

[chuckdyke]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

Ah, probably so.  Also looks like they removed color from the babies’ faces.  Brilliant photoshop.

The Clef Symbols are the giveaway, it doesn't blend with the fabric.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Ultradave said:

So Company Teams instead of BTGs eh? 

Yeah, more like CTGs

2 hours ago, Ultradave said:

It seems if anything the thought was that there would be little resistance so it didn't particularly matter. Simplified of course, but the reality might not be far off.

Oh, for sure the expectation that there wouldn't be a shooting war poisoned the whole planning process, of that I'm sure.  But I personally believe the assumption of no serious combat was invented to make this war possible.

Senior Officer - "Comrade Putin says he wants to invade Ukraine"

Planning Staff - "Sounds good!  We'll get right on it.  One question, when can we expect full mobilization?"

Senior Officer - "Comrade Putin says we are not to mobilize.  This is to be a 'Special Military Operation' with our standing forces."

Planning Staff - "Ah, OK.  So we're just going to take over the Donbas then?  We can do that."

Senior Officer - "No, Comrade Putin wants a plan to take over all of eastern Ukraine."

Planning Staff - "Without full mobilization?  This is impossible.  We simply don't have the manpower to fight our way to the Dnepr."

Senior Officer - "That will not please Comrade Putin.  Isn't there some way we can do this with our existing forces?"

Planning Staff - "Yes.  If the Ukrainians offer no resistance we should be able to do it no problem."

Senior Officer - "Excellent!  Then it is done.  The Ukrainians will not resist.  Make a plan that is based on this truth."

Planning Staff - "Er, we were joking about the no resistance thing.  Are you just pulling our legs about building an invasion plan based on this assumption?"

Senior Officer - "No joke.  He wants this war and we need a plan to make it happen.  If the only way to make a plan is to presume Ukraine will not fight, then that is what we must do."

Planning Staff - "OK, well, if we divide up our forces and have them drive in small groups all over the place for 3 days then we can do it".

Senior Officer - "Excellent.  Finalize the details of your plan and I will submit it for Comrade Putin's consideration."

Planning Staff - "As you command.  We'll get started on a way to do this.  If we exclude Kyiv we might just have enough forces to make it happen, provide Ukrainians do not shoot at us."

Senior Officer - "Comrade Putin was very specific about taking Kyiv as well as everything east of the Dnepr."

Planning Staff - "What?  Even without any resistance we would need more troops than we have to make that feasible."

Senior Officer - "Not to worry, we have Chechens and police units.  And if absolutely necessary, Syrians and Libyans.  Since you said the Ukrainians won't shoot back they are as good as soldiers."

Planning Staff - "Wait, we didn't say the Ukrainians wouldn't shoot back.  We just said that is the only way to... never mind.  It seems this is what we must do so we'll come up with a plan."

Senior Officer - "Very good then.  Oh, and don't forget that conscripts have to be left at home."

Planning Staff - "Say what?  This definitely isn't going to work."

Senior Officer - "Of course it will.  Comrade Putin knows what he is doing.  He's a master at this sort of thing."

Planning Staff - "As you wish.  We should have a plan ready in about 6 months."

Senior Officer - "Didn't I tell you already?  We're invading next week."

Planning Staff - "Uhmm.... OK?"

Senior Officer - "Good job.  And when you're done get started on a second plan that has our glorious forces going all the way to the Polish border."

Planning Staff - silence

(note, this was not an intercept made by Ukrainian intel, but it does seem plausible, doesn't it?)

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, akd said:

Ah, probably so.  Also looks like they removed color from the babies’ faces.  Brilliant photoshop.

NOW I GET THAT! Thanks for pointing that out.  At first I thought they just did a poor color adjustment, but now I see it was intentional.  My respect for this piece of art just went up another notch

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

General (R) Hodges comments on Putin's speech yesterday:

 

[Battlefront.com]

CBC interview with Canadian volunteer recently back from the front:

 

[cesmonkey]

18 hours ago, chrisl said:

So do those 11,000 troops get loaded on trains at the end of the day and sent to Ukraine?

I wouldn't if I was Putin.  Those troops can put on a fantastic parade.  It's probably the one thing they are good at. Why send them to Ukraine and risk them getting killed?

[Chibot Mk IX]

meanwhile Zelensky gave a powerful motivational speech. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/full-transcript-ukraine-s-zelenskiy-address-after-putin-s-victory-day-speech

Quote

This is not a war of two armies. This is a war of two worldviews. The war waged by barbarians who shell the Skovoroda Museum and believe that their missiles can destroy our philosophy. It annoys them. It is unfamiliar to them. It scares them. Its essence is that we are free people who have their own path. Today we are waging war on this path and we will not give anyone a single piece of our land. Today we celebrate the Day of Victory over Nazism.

Quote

Our enemy dreamed that we would refuse to celebrate May 9 and the victory over Nazism. So that the word "denazification" gets a chance. Millions of Ukrainians fought Nazism and went through a difficult and long journey. The Nazis were expelled from Luhansk, the Nazis were expelled from Donetsk, and Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk were liberated from the occupiers.

The Nazis were expelled from Yalta, Simferopol, Kerch and the entire Crimea. Mariupol was liberated from the Nazis. They expelled the Nazis from all over Ukraine, but the cities I named are especially inspiring us today. They give us faith that we will drive the occupiers out of our own land for sure.