How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

OBrien thinks this is aimed at Russia, but I'm of the opinion it's Lukashenko doing his best to persuade the West to restrain Ukraine from walking into Minsk after finishing the war.

 

It is far to soon to make any concrete predictions regarding the fate of rest of Russian sphere of influence at this point. But if general collapse of Russian army (or even better, the political regime) was to happen, it would be a logical thing to do. Belarus is practically in a state of war with Ukraine anyway, and I don't think that population there would be willing to die for Lukashenka - I've never met a Belarusian who would have anything good to say about him, or about how the country is run in general. There are some "Free Belarusians" fighting in Ukraine now,  and if history teaches us anything, those "Free Forces" are often the initiator of political change in their home countries.

I remember Zelensky said some days ago (talking to Duda about the future of Ukraine in EU IIRC), that "together with Belarus there's 90 millions of us (Ukrainians and Poles), more then the Germans". Gives you a little hint about what he thinks of future of BY

Edited May 5, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

A extremely important thread, where the NCO training provided by the West is actually less impactful than stated by some, if already posted, should be posted again to emphasize the agency of Ukrainians independent of the west in warfighting. 

Interviews with members of the Ukrainian military emphasize that the model of NCOs was too early to be widespread, and that the model of rotating units and conscripts and specialists allowed widespread training to be undertaken despite being a weaker country than Russia for example with more resources and manpower, Ukraine has been able to seemingly equalize the equation. In this sense I think emphasis on unity of purpose and morale is very important.

Russia and Ukraine both have conscripts, but so far the reserves Ukraine is bringing up are showing higher quality than that of Russia's contract personnel.

 

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

 

What do you mean under failure?

And what do exactly do you want to know about logistic? I never interested deeply of this, but I will try to answer )

Ive read several articles, quoting or directly interviewing NATO military advisors/interlocutors and at least one UKR officer where they describe a logistics chain that has sone strong points and performances, but has not (yet) professionalized to the degree that an operational victory will require (as defined by their NATO p.o.v).

Examples given were brigade level demands being filled in disregard of divisional directives (eg priority to this unit, not that one), fuel being sent to a commander known personally by the logistics officer rather than to the formally requesting unit. Stuff like that - personalized and civilian minded approaches rather professional soldier obedience to the plan.

To be clear, I think part of this is reflective of the sudden surge of reservists/civvies into the logistics process. I expect things to be brought in hand eventually, but Im curious if its happening quickly enough.

Are UKR logistics able to support a real, theater winning offensive? Or, alternatively can they support all these local offensives with enough momentum for long enough to become a de-facto operational level victory?

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

The better part is where he says you can’t use nuclear weapons regardless because it could de-orbit the Earth.  Anyways…

he really said that?  How do people that incredibly ignorant and stupid get to run a whole country????  Oh wait, I live in the US.  Nevermind, dumb question. 

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well I think we found our Mussolini in all this

very funny!  LukadumbFunk unfortunately has no style, unlike Benito, who at least could put on a show.  But yes, he is looking like Mussolini right now.

[Haiduk]

Some news from Luhansk oblast, looks like this guy either in action, or has communication with own comrades in 81st airmobile brigade, which elements fight both in Rubizhne and Popasna

May 1st

Gifts [ammunition+equipment] at last came to our lads in Rubizhne. Slightly calmed down orcs. No artillery support. Barely not shot with friendly fire with SBU [special force "Alfa" of Security Service of Ukraine], which draged motherf...s [captured enemies] to "zeros" [forward positios] but HQ has ruled this mess. 81st keeps strong. 

Special forces against us. They take back own "200", make smoke, armor support, all feng shui. We can't take back ours. Advantage in some places 1 to 20. On old positions sometimes came to hand-to-hand combat. The house three times a day the house changed hands. There are just f..g alot of them. Our withdrew.

About Popasna. 200 our guys were ready to go in order to maintain corridor for heroes for their breathrough, but HQ cancelled. Memory to the heroes... There is no communication with them. They in encirclement. There is no any fight there anymore. There were about two platoons [maybe exactly this episode was on long video, where Russian PMC fighters is capturing 7 UKR soldiers in Popasna]

May 3rd

Popasna. Road juction is ours. Our arty at last worked this night. Orcs began to dig in. Our tanks on positions. There will be no more offensive. Guys stood out 

May 5th

Popasna today. Right flank keeps position in the town. About 15 houses are ours. We saged there a lot for theese days, but didn't withdraw more. There is 81st only. The center. Road junction is our. For two days we have crumbled about company of SOBR [I doubt this was Russians, probably either PVC or LDPR police special forces]. This wasn't street fight. They just came at us in the open. We were fuc..g astonished. Their spetsnaz so stupid. Our tanks on the place. Our artillery today keeps silence, so we make nightmire for orcs themeselves. 

 

Other article was issued with interview of volunteer battalion (actually rather reinforced company) "Svoboda" (Freedom), which fights in Rubizhne. This guy said Russians used there own standard tactic - alot of artillery, then tanks ruined buildings with direct fire, then LPR conscripts attacked, after them - regular LPR units, after them - Kadyrov's troopers or Russian units. If they havn't success, all repaeted. Our artillery answers 1 shot against their 15-20. On their small position Russian artilelry each day is sootong about 500 shels. Thus each day on Rubizhne enemy fired whole military train of ammunition 

  

 

[FancyCat]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is far to soon to make any concrete predictions regarding the fate of rest of Russian sphere of influence at this point. But if general collapse of Russian army (or even better, the political regime) was to happen, it would be a logical thing to do. Belarus is practically in a state of war with Ukraine anyway, and I don't think that population there would be willing to die for Lukashenka - I've never met a Belarusian who would have anything good to say about him, or about how the country is run in general. There are some "Free Belarusians" fighting in Ukraine now,  and if history teaches us anything, those "Free Forces" are often the initiator of political change in their home countries.

I remember Zelensky said some days ago (talking to Duda about the future of Ukraine in EU IIRC), that "together with Belarus there's 90 millions of us (Ukrainians and Poles), more then the Germans". Gives you a little hint about what he thinks of future of BY

Intermarium. It would be nice for all the prior conflicts between Eastern European states to get firmly buried like in Western Europe in a united anti-Russian, pro-EU future forward.

I was skeptical of Kamil Galeev on Lukashenka but you know strip out the idiocy, strip out the obvious rhetoric supporting Russia and the dude sounds very much like he wants to get away from Putin's decisions, wants Putin to give up in Ukraine, warns the West that Putin won't fight NATO and therefore I think, if your saying the threat of nuclear war is fake and the war should end, your saying to NATO, hurry the **** up and finish it, give Ukraine all the weapons you want, and publicity placed himself against nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine, I think a good sign if Putin uses nukes, Belarus is gonna beg Ukraine to not invade it and Lukashenka would stab Putin in the back.

As is, he is definitely stabbing him a bit with that war with NATO comment. Clown he needs to be, Putin has been cleaning up oligarchs for less.

[AlsatianFelix]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A extremely important thread, where the NCO training provided by the West is actually less impactful than stated by some, if already posted, should be posted again to emphasize the agency of Ukrainians independent of the west in warfighting. 

Interviews with members of the Ukrainian military emphasize that the model of NCOs was too early to be widespread, and that the model of rotating units and conscripts and specialists allowed widespread training to be undertaken despite being a weaker country than Russia for example with more resources and manpower, Ukraine has been able to seemingly equalize the equation. In this sense I think emphasis on unity of purpose and morale is very important.

Russia and Ukraine both have conscripts, but so far the reserves Ukraine is bringing up are showing higher quality than that of Russia's contract personnel.

 

 

Points off the bench for the win.

[dan/california]

40 logistics vehicles! I am moving quickly to a view that the Russians fold within a week.

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well I think we found our Mussolini in all this

Lukanhesko seems to agree, he is laying awake at night pondering his date with a lamp post, and a rope. And wondering if he can safely flee to Russia,?or if Putin will have him tortured to death for not fully committing Belarus to the war. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy...

[Aragorn2002]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

40 logistics vehicles! I am moving quickly to a view that the Russians fold within a week.

Lukanhesko seems to agree, he is laying awake at night pondering his date with a lamp post, and a rope. And wondering if he can safely flee to Russia,?or if Putin will have him tortured to death for not fully committing Belarus to the war. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy...

Belarussia is planning on large army exercises. How does that fit in, I wonder?

[AlsatianFelix]

Is this diagram of artillery ranges correct?

 

[Huba]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

A extremely important thread, where the NCO training provided by the West is actually less impactful than stated by some, if already posted, should be posted again to emphasize the agency of Ukrainians independent of the west in warfighting. 

Interviews with members of the Ukrainian military emphasize that the model of NCOs was too early to be widespread, and that the model of rotating units and conscripts and specialists allowed widespread training to be undertaken despite being a weaker country than Russia for example with more resources and manpower, Ukraine has been able to seemingly equalize the equation. In this sense I think emphasis on unity of purpose and morale is very important.

Russia and Ukraine both have conscripts, but so far the reserves Ukraine is bringing up are showing higher quality than that of Russia's contract personnel.

 

 

AFAIR 900K Ukrainians have moved through the frontlines in Donbas since 2014 - I cannot find the source for this number though, maybe @Haiduk could you confirm or correct it? Compared to Russians it gives a absolutely huge resererve of people at least somewhat experienced specificaly in defending the Donbas trenches, which happens to be the most crucial activity during this war. It might be also a hint regarding the unknown condition of the brigades defending it - even if losses are significant, experienced replacements are probably available in the needed numbers.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Is this diagram of artillery ranges correct?

 

M777 checks out if it is the M795 or Excalibur. Only 15 mi if using the old M107 round.  Plan here would be to use Switchblades to take out 2S19s and then M777 for D30s if they are stuck with the old M107 rounds.  Of course it also depends how far back from the FEBA the Russian guns are and how much risk one want to take.

No idea on that French beast.

Edited May 5, 2022 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

wow, great info above, thanks to all of you. 

First we hear about just how hard UKR defenders are having some areas, like Popasna.  Claims of being heavily outnumbered and outgunned, with huge RU advantage in artillery.  So the new arty from the west can't come soon enough.  Also, I wonder if UKR is prioritizing forces for some other sectors?  Are there some big punches coming from UKR, as per the official UKR statements seen in today's earlier posts?   Is that where the reserves and new arty is going? Interesting.

And huge losses for one day!  15 tanks, 41 APCs, 200 killed!  that's a huge RU loss for one day, especially w all the support losses. 

[DMS]

Thank you for listening and replying. The gap between two realities is huge. What is highly probable for you is doubtful for me (and nearly impossible for most of Russian citizens), and vice versa. Probably we should wait few years, so facts would be fully clear.

To The_Capt: I didn't advocate anything, I got emotional a little, seeing someone believes that "phone call intercepts". I realise that no one will change opinion. And regime change in Russia won't change anything, I can't imagine what amount of violence you will need to "derushificate" us, like Ukrainians use to say. You won't succeed, there are several million sized agglomerations in Russia, Raqqa is small town in comparance. May be new iron curtain and cold war with defined rules can save us. Bad, but better, than big war (bigger war).

4 hours ago, kraze said:

deporting a million people to Siberia and far east (russian officials themselves confirm this)

And I should believe in this also.

During WW2 some Soviet propagandist published article about Germans, draining blood from locals. It was published, but soon it was prohibited to quote it. Ukrainians also should prohibit to quote something. 

[akd]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some news from Luhansk oblast, looks like this guy either in action, or has communication with own comrades in 81st airmobile brigade, which elements fight both in Rubizhne and Popasna

May 1st

Gifts [ammunition+equipment] at last came to our lads in Rubizhne. Slightly calmed down orcs. No artillery support. Barely not shot with friendly fire with SBU [special force "Alfa" of Security Service of Ukraine], which draged motherf...s [captured enemies] to "zeros" [forward positios] but HQ has ruled this mess. 81st keeps strong. 

Special forces against us. They take back own "200", make smoke, armor support, all feng shui. We can't take back ours. Advantage in some places 1 to 20. On old positions sometimes came to hand-to-hand combat. The house three times a day the house changed hands. There are just f..g alot of them. Our withdrew.

About Popasna. 200 our guys were ready to go in order to maintain corridor for heroes for their breathrough, but HQ cancelled. Memory to the heroes... There is no communication with them. They in encirclement. There is no any fight there anymore. There were about two platoons [maybe exactly this episode was on long video, where Russian PMC fighters is capturing 7 UKR soldiers in Popasna]

May 3rd

Popasna. Road juction is ours. Our arty at last worked this night. Orcs began to dig in. Our tanks on positions. There will be no more offensive. Guys stood out 

May 5th

Popasna today. Right flank keeps position in the town. About 15 houses are ours. We saged there a lot for theese days, but didn't withdraw more. There is 81st only. The center. Road junction is our. For two days we have crumbled about company of SOBR [I doubt this was Russians, probably either PVC or LDPR police special forces]. This wasn't street fight. They just came at us in the open. We were fuc..g astonished. Their spetsnaz so stupid. Our tanks on the place. Our artillery today keeps silence, so we make nightmire for orcs themeselves. 

 

Other article was issued with interview of volunteer battalion (actually rather reinforced company) "Svoboda" (Freedom), which fights in Rubizhne. This guy said Russians used there own standard tactic - alot of artillery, then tanks ruined buildings with direct fire, then LPR conscripts attacked, after them - regular LPR units, after them - Kadyrov's troopers or Russian units. If they havn't success, all repaeted. Our artillery answers 1 shot against their 15-20. On their small position Russian artilelry each day is sootong about 500 shels. Thus each day on Rubizhne enemy fired whole military train of ammunition 

  

 

From the other side in Popasna:

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

AFAIR 900K Ukrainians have moved through the frontlines in Donbas since 2014 - I cannot find the source for this number though,

No, Operative reserve 1 (those, who passed ATO/JFO and retired) was about 178 000. Also Operative reserve 2 (who served as conscripts, but didn't participate in the war) - about 30 000. 

[sburke]

5 hours ago, DMS said:

And regime change in Russia won't change anything, I can't imagine what amount of violence you will need to "derushificate" us,

violence won't do it, sorry but you guys are gonna have to do this yourselves if you hope for Russia to rejoin the family of nations as anything other than a pariah state.

Edited May 5, 2022 by sburke

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, DMS said:

Thank you for listening and replying. The gap between two realities is huge. What is highly probable for you is doubtful for me (and nearly impossible for most of Russian citizens), and vice versa. Probably we should wait few years, so facts would be fully clear.

To The_Capt: I didn't advocate anything, I got emotional a little, seeing someone believes that "phone call intercepts". I realise that no one will change opinion. And regime change in Russia won't change anything, I can't imagine what amount of violence you will need to "derushificate" us, like Ukrainians use to say. You won't succeed, there are several million sized agglomerations in Russia, Raqqa is small town in comparance. May be new iron curtain and cold war with defined rules can save us. Bad, but better, than big war (bigger war).

And I should believe in this also.

During WW2 some Soviet propagandist published article about Germans, draining blood from locals. It was published, but soon it was prohibited to quote it. Ukrainians also should prohibit to quote something. 

There's an old saw..."those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities". The absurdity that you believe is that there are two realities with equal legitimacy. That's simply not true. The evidence of the atrocities in Bucha exists. The evidence of random shelling of obviously civilian targets in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa and elsewhere exists. Evidence of some mustache twisting Western plot to destroy the Russkiy Mir does not. The reality is that your leader started this war in the pursuit of Russian hegemony and your badly trained, led and used army has committed enormous war crimes. As a Russian friend of mine put it; "****...this time *we're* the Nazis in '41". And yes...many, many Russians realize this. I hope you can find your own way there as soon as possible. Russians acquiesced to Putin's rotten silovik regime and only Russians can put a final end to it. 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by billbindc

[panzermartin]

What happened to those happy to go to war Syrians from one month ago ? Never heard from them again. 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

violence won't do it, sorry but you guys are gonna have to do this yourselves if you hope for Russia to rejoin the family of nations as anything other thana a pariah state.

Step one for poor DMS and his country's future: kill Putin, lay all the blame on him, pull out of Ukraine, at least to Feb22 borders, make eternal peace treaty w all neighbors.  Then actually have real elections in a year or so.  That would be the necessary start to stop being an endlessly violent aggrieved 'victim' who seems to need to lash out all the time.  It's a lot better to be a nice family in the neighborhood, not the crazy psycho w the conspiracy signs in the yard and an arsenal in the basement.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, Operative reserve 1 (those, who passed ATO/JFO and retired) was about 178 000. Also Operative reserve 2 (who served as conscripts, but didn't participate in the war) - about 30 000. 

Thanks, this sounds much more plausible actually.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, DMS said:

Thank you for listening and replying. The gap between two realities is huge. What is highly probable for you is doubtful for me (and nearly impossible for most of Russian citizens), and vice versa. Probably we should wait few years, so facts would be fully clear.

To The_Capt: I didn't advocate anything, I got emotional a little, seeing someone believes that "phone call intercepts". I realise that no one will change opinion. And regime change in Russia won't change anything, I can't imagine what amount of violence you will need to "derushificate" us, like Ukrainians use to say. You won't succeed, there are several million sized agglomerations in Russia, Raqqa is small town in comparance. May be new iron curtain and cold war with defined rules can save us. Bad, but better, than big war (bigger war).

And I should believe in this also.

During WW2 some Soviet propagandist published article about Germans, draining blood from locals. It was published, but soon it was prohibited to quote it. Ukrainians also should prohibit to quote something. 

Well you guys are in a tough spot, no doubt.  I am not sure you need to "de-russo-fy" to be honest but you likely need to work on what "Russia" actually means.  Perhaps an evolution as opposed to a revolution.  

Russia needs to work some things out, preferably while not invading everyone who pisses it off - I get the irony of the West saying this - but Russia needs to decide if it is going to be a mature member of the international community or join North Korea in the "contained whacko" box.

I do stand by my point that as far as the current crisis is concerned, Russia only real strategic play left is to remove Putin and his cronies and pin this entire mess on them on the way out.  Fully withdraw, beg for forgiveness, extradite war criminals (and seriously, those actions were not just really immoral, it was really, really dumb), and maybe in a few years after you negotiate oil and gas sales to pay for this mess, we can start thinking about normalization.  I get that this may very well break your nation, but you are in a hole right now that only gets deeper as this thing drags on, seriously the path you guys are on is worse. 

Russia lost this war about a week in.  Ukraine has already figured out how to "win and survive", Russia needs to figure out how to "lose and survive" and do it quickly.  

 

[Haiduk]

Just now, panzermartin said:

What happened to those happy to go to war Syrians from one month ago ? Never heard from them again. 

That were Lybians (Popasna). Locals from Zaporizhzhia oblast told they have seen some arabs too, but probably Syrians. They were well equipped, didn't use the violence to civils, but all time was asking them to eat somethng and often was stealing chickens.

[Haiduk]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

M777 checks out if it is the M795 or Excalibur. Only 15 mi if using the old M107 round.  Plan here would be to use Switchblades to take out 2S19s and then M777 for D30s if they are stuck with the old M107 rounds.  Of course it also depends how far back from the FEBA the Russian guns are and how much risk one want to take.

No idea on that French beast.

Here such photo. Allegedly M777 already in action and among other ammunition use also M549A1. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

That were Lybians (Popasna). Locals from Zaporizhzhia oblast told they have seen some arabs too, but probably Syrians. They were well equipped, didn't use the violence to civils, but all time was asking them to eat somethng and often was stealing chickens.

The Syrians were nicer, might among the most DA@$$%%ing of a very great many true and DA$&&@@ing things said about the Russians in the last however many pages. It also implies most of them took their chances on sneaking into the EU and either claiming asylum, or working off the books at some distant relatives restaurant.

Edited May 5, 2022 by dan/california