How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Elmar Bijlsma]

I am mildly concerned about the variety of SPGs (and other vehicles) being sent. Sure, something is better than nothing but it feels like a logistical headache in waiting.

It would have been better if the powers that be put their heads together and swapped vehicles amongst themselves and send a batch of one single item per type to Ukraine.

[Huba]

More of gloomy Girkin predictions:

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am mildly concerned about the variety of SPGs (and other vehicles) being sent. Sure, something is better than nothing but it feels like a logistical headache in waiting.

It would have been better if the powers that be put their heads together and swapped vehicles amongst themselves and send a batch of one single item per type to Ukraine.

Let's do a quick review of equipment and ammunition of Soviet and NATO origins:

Soviet Ammo: 122mm, 152mm, 152mm for Giatsint, 203mm

SPGs: 2S1, 2S3, Giatsint-S, 2S7, MSTA-S

Towed Guns: D30, D20, MSTA-B, Giatsint-B

 

NATO Ammo: 155mm

SPGs: Pzh 2000, M109A4, CAESAR

Towed guns: M777

It is a bit more complicated if you take into account charges for particular gun models. If in perspective the Soviet stuff is to be phased out and replaced by NATO, it will actually mean a significant simplification, especially regarding ammo. Transition phase on the other hand is going to be fun, I'll give you that.

Edited April 23, 2022 by Huba

[Combatintman]

56 minutes ago, Huba said:

Let's do a quick review of equipment and ammunition of Soviet and NATO origins:

Soviet Ammo: 122mm, 152mm, 152mm for Giatsint, 203mm

SPGs: 2S1, 2S3, Giatsint-S, 2S7, MSTA-S

Towed Guns: D30, D20, MSTA-B, Giatsint-B

 

NATO Ammo:155mm

SPGs: Pzh 2000, M109A4, CAESAR

Towed guns: M777

It is a bit more complicated if you take into account charges for particular gun models. If in perspective the Soviet stuff is to be phased out and replaced by NATO, it will actually mean a significant simplification, especially regarding ammo. Transition phase on the other hand is going to be fun, I'll give you that.

Fixed that for you mate ...

[Huba]

Time to take some rest 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Huba

[Commanderski]

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Pavel Gareyev, unit and data of death unknown. Judging by the signs on lapels he served in air defense unit and his rank is AD battalion command/staff duty.

Out of list, but just for information

"Colonel" (DPR promoted) Vladimir Kovalenko, chief of "non-departamental security of Internal affairs ministry of DPR" (prisoners guarding service). Citizen of Ukraine. Former officer of Ukrainian 20th separate convoy service battalion of Internal troops (later National Guard), dislocated in Donetsk. After his unit was seized in 2014 by DPR he defected to separs side.  Killed in Mariupol about month ago. 

 

[womble]

9 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

 

If that isn't organised by an external power, it's an interesting development. It makes you think that at least some of the general populace aren't very keen about joining the battle lines...

AIUI, the conscription draft is taken from teenagers, and they're among the most likely demographic to have ways round Internet censorship, and hence a handle on how the rest of the world is seeing the invasion.

[Haiduk]

Ukrianian snipers of 28th mech.brigade on positions somewhere in Kherson/Mykolaiv oblast

UAR-10 .308 rifle (military version of Zbroyar Z-10) with thermal sight

[Holien]

There was a report on BBC news this morning that Russia is claiming it captured a Ukrainian ammo store.

My guess a lie or done in initial days of the war?

I am hoping that the hit on an O Group of senior Russian officers is true and ultimately confirmed. I guess we will find out in several weeks. 

[Taranis]

Ukraine, Donbass, towards Avdiïvka. April 21, 2022. In front of the firing post of a trench, on the ground, empty ammunition. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

A member of the pro-Russian troops talks to the driver of a vehicle at a checkpoint in the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, April 22, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS

Mariupol residents sell eggs at an improvised street market near a damaged military vehicle, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces, Friday, April 22, 2022. ALEXEI ALEXANDROV / AP

* "damaged military vehicle" = destroy T-72(A?)

 

 

[Haiduk]

Enemy artillery shells positions in NE part of Maryinka, Donetsk oblast

 

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Ukraine, Donbass, towards Avdiïvka. April 21, 2022. In front of the firing post of a trench, on the ground, empty ammunition. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

A member of the pro-Russian troops talks to the driver of a vehicle at a checkpoint in the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, April 22, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS

Mariupol residents sell eggs at an improvised street market near a damaged military vehicle, in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces, Friday, April 22, 2022. ALEXEI ALEXANDROV / AP

* "damaged military vehicle" = destroy T-72(A?)

 

 

You gotta love how AP keeps on going with that imaginary "russian-backed separatist forces" BS even now. Even in Mariupol of all places. Because it just has to be that PC BS with "this conflict is more complex than you think"

[Haiduk]

Longer video of how Russian Mi-8 was shot down with Igla MANPAD 21st of April near Malynivka, Zaporizhzhia oblast with 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Missile unsurprisingly flew out of a treeline. These squares suck not only for AFVs, but for helicopters too.

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

You gotta love how AP keeps on going with that imaginary "russian-backed separatist forces" BS even now. Even in Mariupol of all places. Because it just has to be that PC BS with "this conflict is more complex than you think"

80% of their captions contain errors on vehicles, place names or with a "pseudo-neutrality" but I find their photos often striking (it's often the images that remain after conflicts). For example, if we think of the Battle of Berlin, what immediately comes to mind is the photo of the flag on the Reichstage (with the two watches yes :D). Out of respect for the photographer, I put the captions as I find them. It can tell a lot about the person who took them (especially that they say BS or know nothing about it) or the opinion of the "common people".

[Combatintman]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Enemy artillery shells positions in NE part of Maryinka, Donetsk oblast

 

More precisely ... here:

Maryinka.kmz

[Haiduk]

Occupants disassemble Drama theater ruines in Mariupol. Bodies, found there, transport to Mangush town for burials in mass grave. There is assesment that from about 1000 of people, which found a shelter in this theater about 300 were killed or died from wounds under ruins, when Russian hit the building.

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[Combatintman]

Further to my last post - here's a little more precision ...

The red lines which form an offset cross on the complex are the extreme left/right and up/down plots.  L-R distance is 138m and up/down distance is 281m.  The red line in the top left hand corner of the image is what was reported as the FEBA on 10 April.  This sequence; therefore, tells me it hasn't moved much in nearly two weeks.

Complex Strike.kmz

[Haiduk]

Azov fighters brought some food to children, hiding in underground shelters of Azovstal. You can see systems of passages. Most of civilains say they came here as far as ater 20th of March, but some sit here from behinning of March. Kids say they want to see a sky and sun again - they didn't see it so far two months. 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by Haiduk

[sross112]

3 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am mildly concerned about the variety of SPGs (and other vehicles) being sent. Sure, something is better than nothing but it feels like a logistical headache in waiting.

It would have been better if the powers that be put their heads together and swapped vehicles amongst themselves and send a batch of one single item per type to Ukraine.

I was thinking about this too. I suppose short term whatever can be pushed in will have to do even though there will be a logistics nightmare. The ammunition is streamlined but spare parts and servicing is where it will get complicated.

For the long term I think the UA needs to fully swap to NATO systems, except for what they can provide from their own MIC (Neptunes, Stugna's, etc). With that being said the majority of their equipment would probably be US. As we have discussed before there is just more available but there is also the lend lease legislation that should make it possible to obtain large amounts to refit forces quickly. I don't think everything would necessarily have to come from there though. The big thing though is to narrow the weapon systems down. Say ok, MBT's M1's, SPG's Pzh2000, etc. Clean up the maintenance/spare parts problems tremendously.

[Huba]

This is confirmed by Polish state media

 

[The_Capt]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Summary about last two days  of most hot place - Izium area.

Many of Russian BTGs, concentrated on spearhead are BTG, based on tank battalions. But instead one "big steam roller push", Russians each day are attacking with several "small steam rollers" in different directions, trying to penetrate our defense. Sometime our troops conduct own counter-attacks, so as told in twitter one soldier, terrain in many places covered with knoked out and abandoned vehicles of both sides. Russians also, understanding hazard of UKR mobile AT-teams, inolved more SOF and recon forces for hunting on them. Especially Russians actively conduct own search in night time. 

Most fierce fights were on eastern bank of Oskil river. Three days ago Russians captured Lozove village and attacked our troops in neighbour villages Rubtsi and Yatskivka. Russians use own standart tactic of "burned earth". They just hammered villages with artillery and MLRS, then tanks attack and shot out remained houses, if they encountered strong resistance, they withdraw and artillery strike the village again. So, the same procedure Russians used on latter two villages. As result they could push off our troops from ruines of Rubtsi, Yatskivka also burns, but situation there still unclear.

Also Russian conducted attacks on Dovhen'ke village - the key to Izium - Sloviansk road, but without success

Ukrainian civil volunteer Roman Donik, which supply 92ns and 93rd brigades wrote about clashes in area south from Izium. He pointed Russian aviation increased quantity of sorties, though for yesterday this also increased their losses. Donik claimed many shot down manned aerial targets, but visually confirmed only two-seats jet. Also he described two clashes - first was probably 2-3 days ago in unpointed place. Russians atatcked with company tactical group of 6 tanks and 10 BMPs after three hours of fight they withdrew having losses 3 tanks and 1 BMP. Today he described Russian attack of presumably 64th motor-rifle brigade on positions of 93rd brigade near Virnopillia village with the same force - comany tactical groop - 10 light armor and tanks. Result - enemy repelled, 3 tanks hit/abandoned, 3 light armor destroyed (I think, 1 BTR and 2 trucks more correctly if his photos corresponded to this episode) - akd alredy posted these photos

Also some of OSINT source issued photos of Russian losses in Brazhivka next to east from Virmopillia - about dozen of armor for small village. But our says Russians are throw new and new tanks in the battle instead burned, so UKR troops forced to withdraw from village to willage after 1-2 days of fight, despite Russians pay high price for own achievments

  

 

So this and the actions around Lynman-Zarchine  all point to Slovyanks as an operational objective for this thing along the North-East front of the Donbas, but the Russian are going about it very strangely.  This looks like some sort of recon-in-force as they are trying a lot of different tactical axis probes, and those are expensive probes.  It kinda looks like the Russians are using BTGs to try and find a hole in the UA defence instead of a recon screen based on the battlefield loss observations.

So in the "have the Russians found a new game?" question, I am not seeing it to be honest.  They still appear to be road-bound, their recon phase is a bit of a mystery-date game, and the whole thing has the same fumbling feel as the offensives in the first phase.  I think they are more intense and they can definitely mass fires as we have seen but it looks like they are trying to old playbook here of "find a hole", as opposed to making one and then pushing echelons through as coordinated use of mass.  Or maybe that is what next week will bring?  Again, I am not really seeing the set up for the massive sweeps still being predicted in the mainstream.  All we can see is that Russia is still on the offensive in the Donbas and it is moving pretty slowly and costly [aside: perfect name for this operation, can we get a Russian translation?] for the first week.

[Combatintman]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this and the actions around Lynman-Zarchine  all point to Slovyanks as an operational objective for this thing along the North-East front of the Donbas, but the Russian are going about it very strangely.  This looks like some sort of recon-in-force as they are trying a lot of different tactical axis probes, and those are expensive probes.  It kinda looks like the Russians are using BTGs to try and find a hole in the UA defence instead of a recon screen based on the battlefield loss observations.

So in the "have the Russians found a new game?" question, I am not seeing it to be honest.  They still appear to be road-bound, their recon phase is a bit of a mystery-date game, and the whole thing has the same fumbling feel as the offensives in the first phase.  I think they are more intense and they can definitely mass fires as we have seen but it looks like they are trying to old playbook here of "find a hole", as opposed to making one and then pushing echelons through as coordinated use of mass.  Or maybe that is what next week will bring?  Again, I am not really seeing the set up for the massive sweeps still being predicted in the mainstream.  All we can see is that Russia is still on the offensive in the Donbas and it is moving pretty slowly and costly [aside: perfect name for this operation, can we get a Russian translation?] for the first week.

Agreed and it reinforces in spades the fallacy of the BTG concept which has stripped away the Bde/Regt echelon of command.

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Agreed and it reinforces in spades the fallacy of the BTG concept which has stripped away the Bde/Regt echelon of command.

Ya, whatever this thing is, it aint working.  It feels like an unholy compromise to be honest.  I mean if one beefed it up, layered a next-gen unmanned system and hooked into a integrated C4ISR system, one could make an argument for a more self-contained tactical organization.  One that when employed on concert with others could see daylight in the whole dispersed and distributed operations idea that the west has been toying around with.  Not sure how one solves for logistics as that is the tether that never goes away but you might be onto something.

As built the BTG looks more like a "medium weight" institutional cop out.  Looks good on a power point as one could argue it can swing heavy or light but without the formation-level enablers light is going to be tepid and heavy too slow and vulnerable.  It looks like the Russians experimented with distributed mass and did not land on it at all, in fact they managed to invent distributed-weak-dim-mass.  The UA on the other hand, at least in the defence, has clearly locked onto something with distributed-smart-sharp mass; however, we have not seen them able to translate that into large offensive operations either.  

Let's face it, this has been a Defence war.  Defence has had primacy pretty much the entire course of it so far, which kinda throws things for a bit of a loop.  I may even go further and say that this has been a Denial War, with most of the denial being inflicted on the Russians; a lot of null and negative decisions being forced on the Russians as they seem unable to solve some riddles here, while bleeding on everything.  This is ironic as hell considering a major political objective of Putin's was to undecide the outcome of the Cold War...insert ironic "wah, wah, waaaah" sound here.

Edited April 24, 2022 by The_Capt