How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I disagree with the view that the Russian war machine gets notably weaker with the mere passage of time, bleeding out from sanctions and whatnot. I mean, even if it does at a macro level, that weakness will take some time to become meaningful on the battlefield. In the meantime, they are still humans; even Russians learn and improvise, especially when sheer survival is at stake.

So this is a very common misconception.  A ground force is like a ship, simply having in the field erodes it over time, simple interaction with the environment causes wear and tear.  Troops get sick and hurt.  Morale wanes over time as living in a hole like an animal sucks.  Equipment also needs constant maintenance and spare parts, it also gets damaged in accidents etc. 

So yes, simply taking an unit out into the wild and parking it will begin a process of slow attrition over time.  Attrition that will need resupply, refit and rotation.  Add in actual combat and that process speeds up dramatically.

So basically any army in the field is like a bag of water with a hole in it.  How big that hole is depends on all sorts of factors, including combat.  At the top of the bag is how quickly one can pour resources back into the bag. [aside: for those paying attention, yes, all military forces are living examples of the Theseus paradox].

So the question of "how long" is actually a combination of the front end and back end.  Right now that hole is pretty big and the water coming in is not matching, I am not sure if Russia can get a matching back-end to be honest as these are not simple things to replace.  However, this is also tied up with complicated concepts of power I outlined in that other post. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

Have they let something slip? He'll be for the gulags if this is true and isn't sanctioned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61188943

MMM

Edited April 22, 2022 by Monty's Mighty Moustache

[BlackMoria]

Probably the usual BS that anyone speaking for the Kremlin or the russian military spouts.    Goes in the same toilet of intents as the russian talking heads on their media about once they are done with Ukraine, russian will invade the rest of Europe.  LOL.  Perhaps they should be trashing talking the first step to their ambitions - pocketing the Ukrainians in the Donbass before they take Odesa, then Moldova, then the rest of Europe.  Three days in to their offensive now and not much to show for it except escalating their own body count.  Too bad the russian military is not up to the lofty wet dreams of the supreme leader.  LOL

Edited April 22, 2022 by BlackMoria

[danfrodo]

Well, that was a very busy night for the forum:

Steve confronted by a dimwit from DumFukistan (aka GlennBeckistan).

SlySniper puts out some points about UKR (possible) weaknesses and a very good discussion follows, well done all of you. 

I'm driving from Oregon to Montana today to see college kid.  Somewhere in Idaho I'll have passed the same distance as Russia's current front line.  It's an INSANE distance, ~800km.  And they can't possibly defend it.  Especially once UKR receives more mobility (bushmasters, others) and artillery from the west.   They can't man a continuous line w any strength, so there will be lots of platoon sized strongholds & outposts getting picked off day after day after day.

And I am still of the opinion that I've had for a while -- these Russian 'probes' are the Great Patriotic Donbas Offensive.  And it's going nowhere while burning up ammo, men, vehicles, and morale.  I am also of the opinion that the war is being run by Putin and he needs results fast so he's doing like Stalin in 1941 -- attack attack attack immediately!!!! -- no matter how much it actually makes things worse.

And France is in the game!  Good job France.  And sounds like some other countries, wisely, are keeping their support quiet while helping  a lot.  Germany seems to shamefully dither -- wtf?  -- My ancestral homeland is an embarrassment right now (3 grandparents from Germany).

[DesertFox]

That could mean Challenger II for Poland and T-72/PT-91 for Ukraine. Let´s see...

 

 

 

 

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Taranis said:

I just saw it and confirmed it. What news for me! Really.
I served on CAESAR in Afghanistan. A truly awesome beast. Fragile but really powerful and precise. Well used (hit and run), it is formidable.

We now have justification for adding it in CMBS (Steve please :D)

How do you mean by fragile? Vulnerable in the dusty environment of Afghanistan, or in general?

And thank you for the additional postings a la Haiduk.

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Germany seems to shamefully dither -- wtf?  -- My ancestral homeland is an embarrassment right now (3 grandparents from Germany).

While I think it's good that political pressure is kept on Germany to 'stay with the herd' ;-), I think people are too harsh on Germany. While this Scholz figure isn't my favorite politician (not that I have many about which I'm even positive lol), he barely had time in office when the invasion started. 
Although parts of their arms industry has continued to flourish, from my experience many German people still have an open wound regarding the 'war' and as such they are vehemently opposed to any German participation in any war efforts. 

Probably it will take time for Germany to take leadership in these affairs. However plenty of German weapons have find their way to Ukraine. Also; it seems we're sending some of our (bought from Germany) PzH-2000 to Ukraine and Germany has offered to train Ukrainian crews and will provide ammo. 
I think Germany has a good number of PzH-2000 in storage, maybe funds can be organized so various NATO nations can 'buy' these and forward m to Ukraine.

[DesertFox]

LOL! Spontaneous combustion?

 

 

[holoween]

Just now, Lethaface said:

While I think it's good that political pressure is kept on Germany to 'stay with the herd' ;-), I think people are too harsh on Germany. While this Scholz figure isn't my favorite politician (not that I have many about which I'm even positive lol), he barely had time in office when the invasion started. 
Although parts of their arms industry has continued to flourish, from my experience many German people still have an open wound regarding the 'war' and as such they are vehemently opposed to any German participation in any war efforts. 

Probably it will take time for Germany to take leadership in these affairs. However plenty of German weapons have find their way to Ukraine. Also; it seems we're sending some of our (bought from Germany) PzH-2000 to Ukraine and Germany has offered to train Ukrainian crews and will provide ammo. 
I think Germany has a good number of PzH-2000 in storage, maybe funds can be organized so various NATO nations can 'buy' these and forward m to Ukraine.

Scholz significantly lacks behind public opinion and is heavily criticised by all other major parties for it to the point a vote of no confidence has been brough up in the news.

The only really defensible argument is that the german army doesnt have any more weapons to give out of its own stock.

[TheVulture]

17 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Nah. Just incompetence is needed. Both facilities andle easily flammable substances. 

Rule out stupidity and incompetence first, then conspiracy. And stupidity has great depths to plumb.

Considering that Russian missile production has been suddenly overwhelmed by battle demands, I think a major accident was inevitable.

Two is a blessing.

Three would be... suspicious.

So are you suspicious yet?

 

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Spontaneous combustion?

 

 

 

[riptides]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

While I think it's good that political pressure is kept on Germany to 'stay with the herd' ;-), I think people are too harsh on Germany. While this Scholz figure isn't my favorite politician (not that I have many about which I'm even positive lol), he barely had time in office when the invasion started. 
Although parts of their arms industry has continued to flourish, from my experience many German people still have an open wound regarding the 'war' and as such they are vehemently opposed to any German participation in any war efforts. 

Probably it will take time for Germany to take leadership in these affairs. However plenty of German weapons have find their way to Ukraine. Also; it seems we're sending some of our (bought from Germany) PzH-2000 to Ukraine and Germany has offered to train Ukrainian crews and will provide ammo. 
I think Germany has a good number of PzH-2000 in storage, maybe funds can be organized so various NATO nations can 'buy' these and forward m to Ukraine.

Good points. My take on Germany is the are scarred from past history, both WWII and the occupation under the Soviet Union. They have lost their identity, or humbly, are seeking to find a new one.

The rest of the former eastern bloc, have no such thoughts or feelings and are attempting to head the beast off as soon as possible.

 

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, holoween said:

Scholz significantly lacks behind public opinion and is heavily criticised by all other major parties for it to the point a vote of no confidence has been brough up in the news.

The only really defensible argument is that the german army doesnt have any more weapons to give out of its own stock.

Don't ask how many 'votes of distrust' our Prime Minister has survived.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Spontaneous combustion?

 

 

While railway sabotage would be more immediately useful, the Russian opposition to Putin seems to have figured out there are more useful ways to get tortured and sent to a gulag that waving a copy of Tolstoy around Red Square.

[sross112]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Spontaneous combustion?

 

 

Well the Russians will blame British Intelligence.

A lot of people will say it is the UA SF/DELTA/SEALS etc.

I think it is resistance from Russian intellectuals. It's about the only way they can fight against the administration.

[Lethaface]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Spontaneous combustion?

 

 

This. is..... interesting??? (3rd fire in 24hours?)

Edited April 22, 2022 by Lethaface

[holoween]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Don't ask how many 'votes of distrust' our Prime Minister has survived.

if it actually comes to a vote its practically guaranteed to succeed. A vote of no confidence has to simultaniously elect a new chancelor so by the time its launched the new coalition is usually already set up for it.

[DesertFox]

Uups...

 

 

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

This. is..... interesting??? (3rd fire in 24hours?)

Yeah, James Bond 007 is to blame...

[kraze]

 

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, holoween said:

if it actually comes to a vote its practically guaranteed to succeed. A vote of no confidence has to simultaniously elect a new chancelor so by the time its launched the new coalition is usually already set up for it.

Ok, guess some of our politicians are a bit more generous with motions of distrust lol (mainly Wilders one of our local far right loons).
So, do you think it will come to a vote?

[FancyCat]

Thread from Hertling on the artillery from the U.S, nothing groundbreaking, tldr, not SPG, but will do the job of counter fire just fine, the package includes counter battery radars, light drones, AND have a logistical tail, training time less than SPGs, which is essential for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481?t=5hunfjamfnyKmFDJ4v3l6A&s=19

[holoween]

Just now, Lethaface said:

Ok, guess some of our politicians are a bit more generous with motions of distrust lol (mainly Wilders one of our local far right loons).
So, do you think it will come to a vote?

No because neither the greens nor the FDP have a good enough incentive to switch to the union. Id expect them to simply keep pressuring Scholz with the help of the union in parliament and take the voter boost theyll get from it.

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Thread from Hertling on the artillery from the U.S, nothing groundbreaking, tldr, not SPG, but will do the job of counter fire just fine, the package includes counter battery radars, light drones, AND have a logistical tail, training time less than SPGs, which is essential for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481?t=5hunfjamfnyKmFDJ4v3l6A&s=19

Excalibur and/or SADARM/SMArt could be a real game-changer, though.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Don't want to dwell too much on that Scholz situation, but the pressure is mounting. This is the cover of today's issue of our SPIEGEL news magazine.

[Lethaface]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

 

Don't watch too much of such filth, it will affect you ;-). 

Basically it's blablabla we can make good glass when we also turn into glass.