How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Ts4EVER]

Tom Hardy put on a lot of weight for that new Mad Max movie.

[Huba]

Russian military officially stated what the goals of the "Special Operation" are. It looks like they prefer to go down in flames instead of letting UA army grind them to death slowly.

And here is the whole Russian MoD announcement:

 

 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

 

 

[FancyCat]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Russian military officially stated what the goals of the "Special Operation" are. It looks like they prefer to go down in flames instead of letting UA army grind them to death slowly.

 

From the same statement your tweet is probably looking at, the Russian military spokesman apparently also referenced Transnistria, so Odessa is still targeted. That they still declare the seizure of southern Ukraine is intended, and the "protection of Russians" in Transnistria would indicate state TV's insane rantings are not so insane in the Kremlin. Whatever the state of the Russian military, this is not great for the idea of Russia learning it's lesson.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517423108378042369?t=7IXVvQOH12Zw4ZymJ4ukkw&s=19

[Huba]

This rhetoric really makes you not want any Russian speaking population on your turf.
Having said that, I wonder what is the general  attitude of Moldovan population towards resolving the Transnistria problem. Moldova applied for EU membership amid the early stages of this conflict. When it becomes clear that Russia is losing, the time will be ripe for expelling the Russian "peacekeepers". I know that there's a significant pro-Russia group in the parliament there, but hopefully the'll be able to act on this opportunity.

[kraze]

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

Russian military officially stated what the goals of the "Special Operation" are. It looks like they prefer to go down in flames instead of letting UA army grind them to death slowly.

 

That's OK, phase one was taking whole Ukraine. Let's wait for phase three.

[Huba]

Phase three will be to defend Crimea and Donbas against unprovoked NATO and Ukrainian aggression. 

[sross112]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another point of interest.  There has now been a second "murder suicide" of a Russian gas company executive, this time in Spain.  Like the previous one in Moscow, it looks really fishy.  Now that there's two, that's enough to indicate something is going on.  Oligarchs don't tend to kill their wives and kids with their own hands, and they certainly don't have much of a track record of suicide:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-oligarch-family-dead-spain-1699660

Steve

I wonder if these are some of those Oligarchs that fled Russia early on. There was a post of several personal jets bugging out during week 2ish. Maybe Putin decided to kill off those that abandoned ship and seize their holdings in Russia.

[sross112]

22 minutes ago, Huba said:

This rhetoric really makes you not want any Russian speaking population on your turf.
Having said that, I wonder what is the general  attitude of Moldovan population towards resolving the Transnistria problem. Moldova applied for EU membership amid the early stages of this conflict. When it becomes clear that Russia is losing, the time will be ripe for expelling the Russian "peacekeepers". I know that there's a significant pro-Russia group in the parliament there, but hopefully the'll be able to act on this opportunity.

I was thinking of this as well. Wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity for Moldova to eject them? I'm sure if they needed it and asked nicely the UA would help.

On another note I saw a post somewhere earlier today that Kaliningrad is voting for independence from Russia. Not sure if that is true as I just saw a headline and didn't investigate.

 

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Phase three will be to defend Crimea and Donbas against unprovoked NATO and Ukrainian aggression. 

If the Ukraine has the audacity of regaining their territory. Fortunately, US, France and the UK still have the right o veto any Russian proposals. UNSC serves one purpose the nice 6 figure salaries of the speakers. 

[TheVulture]

15 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I was thinking of this as well. Wouldn't this be a perfect opportunity for Moldova to eject them? I'm sure if they needed it and asked nicely the UA would help.

On another note I saw a post somewhere earlier today that Kaliningrad is voting for independence from Russia. Not sure if that is true as I just saw a headline and didn't investigate.

Don't know about that - there was a video released yesterday about Kaliningrad agitating for independence from Russia, but it was a deliberate spoof (and says so in the video).  It's actually produced by the Ukrainian government (and again, this is clearly stated) to show how you can splice together out of context quotes, unrelated footage etc. to make something superficially convincing.

The point they are making of course is that they are using Russia's propaganda techniques to claim support in Donestk, Donbas, Crimea (and probably also Kherson coming soon to a propagana outlet near you), and flipping it around to show how it looks in reverse

So the point of the video isn't "Kaliningrad wants independence from Russia". It is "don't believe Russia's claims that Ukrainian oblasts want to become part of Russia".

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Saw a report that Der Spiegel apparently ran a story yesterday that there is a possibility of a no-confidence vote for Scholz as early as next week.  The impetus is a proposal to override his arms policy which, if passed, would lay conditions for a no-confidence vote.

I didn't see anything about this in English media and my quick poke at Der Spiegel didn't turn up the article.

That should be interesting.

Steve

[edit] - I found it buried WAY down the page.  Unfortunately it is behind a paywall:

https://www-spiegel-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/friedrich-merz-versus-kanzler-olaf-scholz-wagt-die-union-das-projekt-kanzler-sturz-a-8782cd1b-9b16-4d1a-89e4-6f37065fc8fd?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

While this is theoretically possible, I would rate it as highly improbable. Greens and FDP would rather close ranks around Scholz in this situation.

[FancyCat]

France sounding like it is sending SPGs Ceasar to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1517418849917878272?t=-ATlIQLKdtHrDaav8PANLw&s=19

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

France sounding like it is sending SPGs Ceasar to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1517418849917878272?t=-ATlIQLKdtHrDaav8PANLw&s=19

Very good!

[Taranis]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

France sounding like it is sending SPGs Ceasar to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1517418849917878272?t=-ATlIQLKdtHrDaav8PANLw&s=19

I just saw it and confirmed it. What news for me! Really.
I served on CAESAR in Afghanistan. A truly awesome beast. Fragile but really powerful and precise. Well used (hit and run), it is formidable.

We now have justification for adding it in CMBS (Steve please :D)

[Taranis]

Ukrainian army destroyed 3 Russian tanks near Izyum

 

 

[Taranis]

Members of a Ukrainian brigade in a trench, west of Donetsk, in the Donbass, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

[chuckdyke]

Germany testing their latest foreign aid package. The recipient is kept classified at this stage.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Breathe in those mephitic fumes deeply, sons of Allah (or was it Ahmat)?

Woe to every backbiter, slanderer,

who amasses wealth ˹greedily˺ and counts it repeatedly,
thinking that their wealth will make them immortal!
Not at all! Such a person will certainly be thrown into the Crusher.
And what will make you realize what the Crusher is?
˹It is˺ Allah’s kindled Fire,
which rages over the hearts.
It will be sealed over them,
tightly secured˺ with long braces.

-- Sura 104, the Holy Qu'ran

[Huba]

Out of likes, but +1 to all those posts @Taranis
Here's a french language source on the CAESARs. After translating to English it sounds like  those guns are already delivered, or in process of getting there, as opposed to something that will happen in the future. Can you confirm that?

https://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/le-risque-d-escalade-en-ukraine-est-tres-fort-d79f638e-c1a5-11ec-8a48-02f9bba22954

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Out of likes, but +1 to all those posts @Taranis
Here's a french language source on the CAESARs. After translating to English it sounds like  those guns are already delivered, or in process of getting there, as opposed to something that will happen in the future. Can you confirm that?

https://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/le-risque-d-escalade-en-ukraine-est-tres-fort-d79f638e-c1a5-11ec-8a48-02f9bba22954

Great! It is better to announce it after delivery than before. Hope they can put those to good use.

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Germany testing their latest foreign aid package. The recipient is kept classified at this stage.

 

Just so I understand, is the Jaguar a part of arms package, or is it the tractor? First is an old crap, but tractor could be used well

[Taranis]

@Huba
Unfortunately, what he indicated is quite vague. We don't really know if they have already been delivered or not. Some say that it will be necessary to wait several weeks for the training time (pointing out that they would not yet be delivered). One of the sources that I indicate below (Le Figaro) says that delivery is scheduled for early May. Sources speak of a dozen vehicles (unit cost around $5 million) in the form of donations (I insist on this) and which would be part of a donation of €100 million (MILAN + CAESAR)
What is confirmed is that deliveries of MILAN missiles have already taken place and that Ukrainian soldiers were trained shortly before the start of the invasion.

A source :
http://lignesdedefense.blogs.ouest-france.fr/archive/2022/04/22/la-france-livre-des-canons-de-155mm-caesar-22999.html
https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/guerre-en-ukraine-emmanuel-macron-devoile-la-livraison-de-missiles-milan-et-de-canons-caesar-20220422

I really wouldn't like to be in the place of the guys opposite

Another good thing to add for example is that propellant charges are common with German etc. In a logistic POV, the common points between US artillery, Pz2000 and CAESAR thanks to the NATO system will be simplified

Edited April 22, 2022 by Taranis

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I think UA has taken terrible losses, but that it's been able to make those numbers good w very motivated replacements, though not usually as experienced as the losses.

All vice versa. Many experienced veterans of 2014-2016 have retired from serviсe after 2017 and now most of them were mobilized again. Of course, they need some retrain, but most of people, who now in regular army are so called "operative reserve 1" (who participated in th war) and "operative reserve 2" (who served in army in previous years, but didn't participate in ATO) 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Haiduk