How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I did see something a week or so ago about Ukrainian pilots in the UK finishing training on Eurofighters.  I'll have to see if I can find it again.  

Wow, that would be really unexpected. It means they started to train back in February probably. I really want it to be true, let's test those Su-35 against more of a peer oponents!

Edit: NVM, I assume those are Block 5, so still capable in A2A, but without newest weapons like AIM-9X, newer AMRAAM or Meteor.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Huba

[Huba]

Fingers crossed for something self propelled this time:

 

[akd]

Ukrainian artillery dismantling a fortified Russian position:

 

Shows a tank (probably T-72B3) popping smoke at one point.

Edited April 19, 2022 by akd

[LongLeftFlank]

Lotsa craters in those fields around. So far from every round fired is a direct hit.... 

[dan/california]

The CEP is the CEP, even with the gun laid perfectly you are still have wind, and ammo variability among other things. In an ideal world every round fired with that quality of drone observation would be one of the nifty guided ones, and the Russians would be minus 5 tanks instead of one. Of course in ideal world we would not be having this war. 

 

To reference CMBS for a moment, my instinct to shell every tree line on the map when I have the ammo appears to be correct. 

[Machor]

The Pentagon's declaration that Ukraine had received additional fighter aircraft - made to sound almost like a guilty admission - had some interesting theatrics. This was clearly not an amateur slip-up, so why the theatrics and what are they trying to communicate to whom?

 

[Rooks And Kings]

5 minutes ago, Machor said:

The Pentagon's declaration that Ukraine had received additional fighter aircraft - made to sound almost like a guilty admission - had some interesting theatrics. This was clearly not an amateur slip-up, so why the theatrics and what are they trying to communicate to whom?

 

I'm a huge fan of John, but all I see here is him implying that Ukraine received parts, and unoperable or outdated aircraft that may have transferrable parts to modern platforms in order to get their damaged airframes back into a combat status. 

I don't think this is related to any F-16 hopefuls out there. 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Rooks And Kings

[dan/california]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-19

Do the Russians remotely have the forces, or the logistics to mount ~5 separate attacks? Can they possibly learn that slowly?

[Huba]

 

18 minutes ago, Rooks And Kings said:

I'm a huge fan of John, but all I see here is him implying that Ukraine received parts, and unoperable or outdated aircraft that may have transferrable parts to modern platforms in order to get their damaged airframes back into a combat status. 

I don't think this is related to any F-16 hopefuls out there. 

I think it means the MiG-29s, perhaps disassembled and sent as "parts" ? The mentioned Eurofighters sound too good to be true.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Huba

[MikeyD]

I recall a story from my old home town at the top of northern Maine (US). When the US was supplying Lend-Lease planes to Britain in WWII they built an air base right on the border with Canada. They'd fly the plane in then tow it the last few hundred yard across the border in order to abide by the letter of their neutral status agreement, or some such reason. If the US is doing something odd like that now they're no doubt looking at the fine print of what the are and aren't legally allowed to do without stepping over the line.

[OldSarge]

6 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I recall a story from my old home town at the top of northern Maine (US). When the US was supplying Lend-Lease planes to Britain in WWII they built an air base right on the border with Canada. They'd fly the plane in then tow it the last few hundred yard across the border in order to abide by the letter of their neutral status agreement, or some such reason. If the US is doing something odd like that now they're no doubt looking at the fine print of what the are and aren't legally allowed to do without stepping over the line.

I had remembered reading about that years ago. When the topic of giving Ukraine jets came up I did a little looksy to see if what I remembered was true.

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/field-of-schemes-emerson-at-war-564639352.html

https://www.mainememory.net/artifact/103726

 

So, I wouldn't be surprised if the US is doing a little dancing along a fine legal line.

[Machor]

8 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I recall a story from my old home town at the top of northern Maine (US). When the US was supplying Lend-Lease planes to Britain in WWII they built an air base right on the border with Canada. They'd fly the plane in then tow it the last few hundred yard across the border in order to abide by the letter of their neutral status agreement, or some such reason. If the US is doing something odd like that now they're no doubt looking at the fine print of what the are and aren't legally allowed to do without stepping over the line.

Yup! 

Horses on the Payroll (RCAF Journal - SPRING 2016 - Volume 5, Issue 2)

Out of likes again. 

[LongLeftFlank]

Welp, fight to the finish then....

[sburke]

Stellantis Idles One of Russia’s Last Working Auto Plants (msn.com)

 

 

Idling the site, which has been operating at a low level for weeks as parts supplies dried up, halts one of the last functioning automotive factories in the country. Stellantis last month halted exports and imports of cars to and from Russia, but made no mention of the plant churning out some 11,000 commercial vehicles a year.

Nope sanctions are TOTALLY not affecting Russia!

[sburke]

@The_Capt

you need to factor this into the information war.  

Tracking The Enemy: How Ukrainians Are Using Russian Troops’ Greed Against Them (msn.com)

[OldSarge]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Welp, fight to the finish then....

The illusion which exalts us is dearer to us than ten thousand truths.
— Aleksandr Pushkin, The Hero ll. 64-65, quoted in Gooseberries by Anton Chekhov

I guess the Russians think that it is the rest of us who're beguiled by the 'illusion which exalts us'. It is sad to see this tragedy unfold and for all of the wrong reasons.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

@The_Capt

you need to factor this into the information war.  

Tracking The Enemy: How Ukrainians Are Using Russian Troops’ Greed Against Them (msn.com)

Oh my, that is brilliant.

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

The illusion which exalts us is dearer to us than ten thousand truths.
— Aleksandr Pushkin, The Hero ll. 64-65, quoted in Gooseberries by Anton Chekhov

I guess the Russians think that it is the rest of us who're beguiled by the 'illusion which exalts us'. It is sad to see this tragedy unfold and for all of the wrong reasons.

Well regretfully, there's the matter of 2000 more or less functional nuclear weapons that says the rest of humanity needs to pay close attention to this elegant heartfelt tosh. And that includes Chinese.

...And remember, while this Zi Namy Bog / Divine Right thing is sadly the *majority* view in Russia, there are still plenty of  Russians -- as there always have been -- who see it for the poison it is.

Some people here may snarl and call them 'smarter Orcs / let Bog sort em out' but they are in the end the same Russians who had the tolerably good sense to cut their losses, down tools and simply walk out of the Cold War (it doesn't appear that Honoured Chekist Putin was among them).

We are going to need all the allies we can get.

Edited April 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Lotsa craters in those fields around. So far from every round fired is a direct hit.... 

Looks like this area has seen a lot of repeated action (reportedly Kharkiv area).  Look at all the huge quantity of tracks in the fields.  Also looks like they had a different fighting position behind the one that got attacked.  Much of this front has been static for the last 6 months, so that explains it.

The artillery directed right on the fortified woods seems to be pretty accurate.  Single shells being fired, landing right near or on the positions.

Steve

[danfrodo]

So another night falls in Ukraine, and the 'great offensive' is upon our friends.  Five attack axes, some of which I would think are feints, or probes?  And so far no serious gains, thankfully.  Wet, muddy ground hopefully helps. 

And the maps seem to show that the Izyum front has a Ukrainian incursion behind it, small but deep.  So how is RA supposed to support that thrust if UKR is interdicting the supply columns?  If that axis doesn't hook up w that one from the east, it might find itself in some trouble.

Scary situation, but so far it seems that RA is taking losses w/o any real breakthroughs. 

Meanwhile, the west finally is doing what it should've done a month ago, supplying UKR w heavier weapons.  Some of those would be online now if we had started on time instead of peeing our collective pants over making Putler angry. 

[OldSarge]

Quote

Well regretfully, there's the matter of 2000 more or less functional nuclear weapons that says the rest of humanity needs to pay close attention to this elegant heartfelt tosh. And that includes Chinese.

I'm more mindful of that fact than any other an am glad that the US has an administration that appears to be handing events both prudently and pragmatically within the limits of US laws No chest thumping or any other false signals.

.

Quote

And remember, while this Zi Namy Bog / Divine Right thing is sadly the *majority* view in Russia, there are still plenty of  Russians -- as there always have been -- who see it for the poison it is.

That is what makes war so difficult, learning to fight the enemy without becoming them. You're quite right, or at least I hope so, that there are still those who see what is happening but are powerless to stop it. If there is anyway out of this mess we will need them.

Edited April 20, 2022 by OldSarge

[Battlefront.com]

Longer version of the drone footage posted a couple of pages ago.  What is the unit?  I see the badge often, but I don't see any brigade badge like it, so not a line brigade?

 

[akd]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like this area has seen a lot of repeated action (reportedly Kharkiv area).  Look at all the huge quantity of tracks in the fields.  Also looks like they had a different fighting position behind the one that got attacked.  Much of this front has been static for the last 6 months, so that explains it.

The artillery directed right on the fortified woods seems to be pretty accurate.  Single shells being fired, landing right near or on the positions.

Steve

There are many cuts.  Just showing effective rounds.

[sburke]

 Czech defence companies will repair Ukrainian tanks and other military vehicles that have been damaged in fighting or need servicing after long-term storage, the Czech Defence Ministry said on Tuesday.

(and any tanks that Ukraine may have discovered in farm fields? Funny.  Russia will have difficulty getting their poorly maintained tanks onto the battlefield, but Ukraine may get them repaired after towing them away...)

Czech companies to repair damaged Ukrainian tanks (msn.com)

[sburke]

Kremlin Dodges Questions on Missing Moskva Warship Crew (msn.com)

He said he’d been told directly by commanders that his son was listed as missing without a trace.

“A conscript who is not supposed to be taking part in the war is listed as missing without a trace. You guys, he disappeared without a trace in the open sea?”!!!

“Why are you, the officers, still alive, and my son, a conscript soldier, has died?” he wrote.

“I will devote the rest of my life to making sure the truth will prevail in this story,” he wrote in the since-deleted post.

His wife, Yegor Shkrebets’ mother, told The Insider that she and her husband had visited a military hospital in search of their son and seen about 200 wounded servicemen being treated there.

She said her husband had asked a military commander where their son was, to which he replied: “Well, in the sea somewhere.”