How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think here was a general perception that Russian successes* in the 'near abroad', in Syria, in interventions in Africa were proof of some larger level of excellence. It should also be noted that there are plenty of folks in the Defense establishment, on the Hill and elsewhere with lots of money riding on an overestimation of Russian capability. It creates groupthink and it's hard for many to completely resist. 

Putting aside the obvious problems of how livings are earned and reputations are made/retained, it seems we have a lot of people operating in silos without proper cross referencing experiences and disciplines with others.  The private sector seems to suffer from the same problems as government organizations. 

Steve

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

I understand you... We have the same in France... All this will give a very bad image of our countries and ridicule ourselves

In Spain it is different. The far-right party VOX supports Ukraine. Being nationalists, they do not forget Putin's role in supporting the Catalan separatists with propaganda through social networks, especially on the occasion of the illegal referendum of October 1, 2017.

And by the way, it is the reason that as a non-separatist Catalan (it is often unknown that non-separatists are the majority in Catalonia), I HATE Putin deeply and completely. There were separatists who went to Russia to ask for help, not only propaganda but also economic and military. If Spain had had a border with Russia, we would have had a war in Catalonia similar to the one in Donbas.

On March 9, the plenary session of the European Parliament approved a report on disinformation and foreign interference in the democratic processes of the EU, which includes a reference to the "close and regular contacts between Russian officials and representatives of a group of Catalan secessionists in Spain" and how these have been part of Russia's strategy to "destabilize" democracy in the EU.

Putin is a cancer that can only be cured by removing it.

[Haiduk]

Some frontline news:

Mariupol. After a time of next ultimatum has gone Russians hammered Azovstal with FAB-3000 from Tu-22M3 and heavy artillery (maybe 2S4 240 mm siege mortars too). Azov command made a statement the plant territory almost all ruined, they try to take out survived people, dead and wounded from ruins. Russians at this moment don't advance forward. About 1000 civilaians hide in plant undergrounds   

Zaporizhzhia axix: Russians throughout the day desparately attacked our troops in Huliaypole area to establish better conditions to the entering in the battle rest of forces, but hadn't sucess.

Velyka Novosilka axis (JTO south): Russians decided outflank our troops west from this settlement and to breakthrough between Huliaypole and Velyka Novosilka. They advanced from Liubymivka to the line of ponds and the dam near Temyrivka village

JTO: Russians could take Maryinka under own control, but our forces after regrouping counter-atatcked and retaken the settlement. In Rubizhne all attempts of enemy to move further where repelled. Now Russians and separs control about half of the city. Calshes around Kreminna.

Kherson oblast: Russians launched attack on the north of Kherson oblast to take back positions, lost in previuous weeks, but hadn't success

Kharkiv oblast: multiple attempts of small armored battlegroups to infiltrate through our positions and find the hole in our defense - no success.     

Edited April 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some frontline news:

Many thanks for this Haiduk.

[Ultradave]

44 minutes ago, Huba said:

UK and Canada declare providing towed artillery. The 40 000 shells offered by the US makes more sense now, it seemed excessive for 18 guns.

 

Good choice. 155mm but MUCH easier to move around than a M198.

Dave

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some frontline news:

Seems like today was spent probing and only had one success in the area of Temyrivka (southern front).

What news from Avdiievka?  Is it still firmly in Ukrainian hands?

Steve

[Armorgunner]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, this is Matador

Wich was supplied from Germany. Sinstalza c90 is the spansh one, I Belive? Its not easy, supplies comeback from allover the Vestern world. With names we normaly dont ever here.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Fernando said:

If Spain had had a border with Russia, we would have had a war in Catalonia similar to the one in Donbas.

Yes, I am sure you are correct.

Steve

[Kinophile]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Kharkiv oblast: multiple attempts of small armored battlegroups to infiltrate through our positions and find the hole in our defense - no success.     

Interesting.

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Good choice. 155mm but MUCH easier to move around than a M198.

Dave

It's a shame we don't have any L52 towed pieces in NATO, that could actually provide some new capabilities. 

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What news from Avdiievka?  Is it still firmly in Ukrainian hands?

Yes, all attacks repelled

In occupied Tokmak town, Zaporizhzhia oblast, locals sent coordinates of Russian radar and reported about new miliratary train with ammnunition on the railway station, guarded by armored train. Ukrainian forces, reportedly struck targets (I think, with Tochka-U, Vil'kha or Smerch). Volunteer fund Back-and-alive clains radar was hit as well as ammunition train

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting.

 

As I said, there almost no heavy fortified positions and the warfare has mostly a character of meeting engagements or probes of small battle groups

Edited April 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1515940106569404418?t=UtoAmDGMdaVDb36YPFUZTw&s=19

"barely any defilades for infantry, let alone mechanized equipment. So the plan, for now, is simple - we continue to drain #Russian ammo supplies, equipment, deprive them of sleep at night, raid their lines, and in general degrade their combat ability until an opportunity presents".

UKR tactics in a nutshell.

 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[db_zero]

If you move past the initial part of the report and listen to guest it sounds like most of the aid being sent is just piling up in Lviv and not getting to where it’s needed.

 

[Cederic]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Poland will be getting M1s, but there is a buffer between Poland and Russia and Ukraine is a different situation.

Estonia has Challenger 2 tanks parked on its Russian border right now. Not much of a buffer there, rather closer to Moscow, and without kickstarting a Challenger 2 vs M1 religious war I think it's reasonable to suggest that they present an upgraded threat to Russian tanks when compared to Ukraine's current inventory.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Anon052 said:

I hope this is true:

 

CNN report specifically mentiones "fighter aircraft"

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-19-22/h_cbdc3b8b22129babf7f51745fd9a583

Edit: if true, we just crossed another potential escalation threshold.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Huba

[Elmar Bijlsma]

9 minutes ago, db_zero said:

If you move past the initial part of the report and listen to guest it sounds like most of the aid being sent is just piling up in Lviv and not getting to where it’s needed.

 

I am pressing the "X to doubt" button. I have seen too much exotic stuff being carried to believe that it is all piling up at Lviv. This is CNN working through their Afghanistan trauma.

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-19-22/h_cbdc3b8b22129babf7f51745fd9a5832

Paywalled?  Goes white screen for me...  I am of course in the rather suspect UK .

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

If you move past the initial part of the report and listen to guest it sounds like most of the aid being sent is just piling up in Lviv and not getting to where it’s needed.

Not surprising.  Trying to handle all of this influx of stuff and getting it to where it needs to be is TOUGH to do.  It will get worked out, I'm sure.  However, it's not like the stuff isn't getting out there at all.  We can see the stuff in videos and something keeps blowing up Russian stuff.

It can also be that everything this guy is saying is true, but for his sector and not others.

Not saying there aren't serious problems to work out (I am SURE there are), but this is just one guy with one guy's perspective.  As accurate as it might be, it is still only that.

Steve

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Vacillator said:

Paywalled?  Goes white screen for me...  I am of course in the rather suspect UK .

There isn't much more there really. 

"I would just say, without getting into what other nations are providing, that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size, their aircraft fleet size. I think I’d leave it at that," said Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby.

[sburke]

Putin Plans to Meet Big Business Owners and Executives Wednesday (msn.com)

This should be interesting.  

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin will continue to hold meetings with various industries. On Monday, Putin told top officials that the West’s “economic blitzkrieg” didn’t work and their sanctions had failed. 

(The decision to close a defense factory and send those guys to the front had nothing at all to do with sanctions......)

Putin convened a gathering of Russia’s top business representatives on Feb. 24, the day he launched the invasion. That televised meeting was later cited by the European Union as a justification for sanctions against several individuals because it showed they were members of the “inner circle of oligarchs” close to the president.

(Hmm these meetings seem almost intended to force these guys to feel the pain and be tied to Putin.  Sucks to be invited.)

More on the non-impact of sanctions.  Lots more cannon fodder

Western exodus could cost 200,000 jobs in Moscow, says mayor - CNN

 

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

There isn't much more there really. 

"I would just say, without getting into what other nations are providing, that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size, their aircraft fleet size. I think I’d leave it at that," said Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby.

Thanks Huba, appreciate it.  And glad that UK is adding more items (not air related) today.

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am pressing the "X to doubt" button. I have seen too much exotic stuff being carried to believe that it is all piling up at Lviv. This is CNN working through their Afghanistan trauma.

This, times a billion. 

[chrisl]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

CNN report specifically mentiones "fighter aircraft"

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-19-22/h_cbdc3b8b22129babf7f51745fd9a583

Edit: if true, we just crossed another potential escalation threshold.

I did see something a week or so ago about Ukrainian pilots in the UK finishing training on Eurofighters.  I'll have to see if I can find it again.  

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

 

@Haiduk, do we know which unit he commanded?

 

Important reporting on the Russian crimes in and around Bogdanivka:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/04/18/i-can-do-whatever-i-want-to-you

Edited April 19, 2022 by akd