How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now that the attack is under way, what's it going to do?  Here's my stab at it:

Phase 1

General attacks along the entire line to tie down Ukrainian forces, confuse them as to main points of effort, and to hopefully create unexpected opportunities.

Three specific points of attack with the following short term objectives:

• Izyum -> Slovyansk and Barinkove
• Kreminna -> Slovyansk
• Popasna -> Bakhmut

Izyum and Kreminna attacks converge on Slovyansk from two directions. 

The attack towards Barinkove would greatly complicate defending Slovyansk as that is a direct supply route.

Popasna attempts to break through on its own.  Possibly this is just a means of putting pressure/distracting Ukrainian efforts to hold Slovyansk.

Desired outcome -> seal off Ukrainian forces east of Izyum into a pocket and establish jumping off points for Phase 2

 

Phase 2

The forces in Slovyansk drive south along Highway M-03 towards Bakhmut which, optimally, will already be under pressure from attacks out of Popasna.  Even if the Popasna attack is initially hindered, pressure on Bakhmut from the east would make it more difficult for the Ukrainian defenders to also hold from the north.

A secondary attack force would head down to Kramatorsk along H-20 (only a few KM distant) to tie things up there and shield Slovyansk from counter attack.

Desired outcome -> pocket all forces from Lysychansk to Popasna

 

Phase 3

Drive south from Izyum on an axis further westward in order to link up with forces coming from Donetsk City - Velyka Novosilka line.  Where they meet up is not relevant, but taking out M-04 is obviously important.

Desired outcome -> full control over Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, destruction/surrounding of large amounts of Ukrainian forces, raise doubts in Ukraine's mind that it can hold the new line.

 

If they achieve all of this they have the preconditions Putin needs to try and end the war.

Steve

Ok, that's the plan. 

What's their ability to carry all of that out? 

[kraze]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry mate, there is no way that does NOT end up as 'ethnic cleansing'. And that's just about the worst direction Ukraine can possibly take postwar.

Remember, well over half of Ukrainians have some form of Russian ties, ethnic, linguistic or marriage. Especially in the East. You want a huge chunk of your own citizenry looking nervously over their shoulders wondering if some dirtbag will denounce them to take their home?

Anyway, Ukraine is like Russia, a declining birthrate country. Who will resettle those 'cleansed' areas? Turkish migrants?

.... I would suggest the reverse. One great way to defang Russia is to brain drain it -- offer visas to their young technorati.

Yes russian nazis that want to see us dead, but are also smart, unlike their dumb brothers running the show, is exactly what we need here. Being smart in Russia is hazardous to life anyway - so let them do their own brain draining, just don't let that **** drain here, we are not in the market for sewage.

Also "half Ukrainians having ties" is total BS. Even most of the minority that had ties - have severed them after facing the reality of their "ties" genuinely wanting to kill them.

The ones that should be looking over their shoulders are the ones who are trying to earn an "ethic cleansing". E.g. flying a russian flag should certainly warrant a light beating and a friendly interrogation to make sure a guy didn't just lost his way and knows where he is. You know, much like flying a flag of Nazi Germany in Israel.

Edited April 18, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Ok, that's the plan. 

What's their ability to carry all of that out? 

We are about to find out...

[Ts4EVER]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

We are about to find out...

Probably initial gains that will have everyone freaking out and running around like headless chicken and then a slow fizzle out. Like the Ardennes, the 1918 offensives etc...

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Ok, that's the plan. 

What's their ability to carry all of that out? 

The weak point of this plan to me is that Russians have to take Sloviansk by storm to really proceed further south. We might assume that the city is a fortress now. They don't have a very good track record for taking well defended cities fast up to this point.

May the purpose of this push from Kreminna be to just threaten the forces east of Izium, force them to retreat or cut them off and thus secure the flank of forces there, which then push towards Barvinkowe, not engaging in fight for Sloviansk? As you said, we'll find out soon...

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Ouch:

 

[womble]

1 minute ago, Ts4EVER said:

Probably initial gains that will have everyone freaking out and running around like headless chicken and then a slow fizzle out. Like the Ardennes, the 1918 offensives...

... and Kyiv, couple of weeks ago.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Ouch:

 

The last thing you see before you die. Harsh.

[Haiduk]

And to the question of spotting. UKR tank of 4th NGU Fast reasction operative brigade spotted and knoked out enemy BMP through the hole of ruined building. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

I'm going to take another stab, this time at Russia's ability to pull this off.

First, let me say up front that I do not believe for a second that it's a forgone conclusion that Russia will lose this battle.  Mass is its own thing and Russia has it and Ukraine does not.  Russia also is (apparently) going to do what it does best which is to throw all that mass into the fight nearly simultaneously from many directions all at one time.  It will be difficult for Ukraine to resist it everywhere to equal effect.  Russia will achieve breakthroughs, it will take ground, it will hurt Ukraine's defenders.  This should not be questioned.

The real question is... can Russia pull off an operational attack on this scale successfully?  Obviously I've expressed my doubts that it can, however there is a possibility that it does through some combination of factors tipping its way.  Even if barely enough.

Aside from the information we had prior to today, what new information do we have?  From the Ukrainian Army Chief of Staff:

1. Russia has committed 810th and 155th Naval Brigades in the Lysychansk area.  These are badly damaged units previously withdrawn from Kiev.  As expected, Russia has rushed these units back into the line because it lacks sufficient reserves of any value to take their place.
2. The Ukrainian 24th Mech Brigade defeated a significant sized attack from the aforementioned Naval Brigades.  This reinforces the notion that these barely refreshed units are not really fit for offensive action.
3. Russian losses on Sunday were 5 tanks, 3 artillery systems, 24 IFV/AFV, 10 trucks, 4 UAVs, and two cruise missiles.  This is apparently separate from what Russia lost taking Kreminna.
4. Ukrainian 93rd Mech Brigade fought off series of attacks out of Izyum along highway E-40 did not go well for Russian forces.  More Marines were noted as part of the attacking forces and did not go well for Russian forces.  A claim of destroying 18 tanks and other vehicles, plus the Ka-52 helicopter, was noted.  It seems artillery was the main cause of the casualties.

There is also a report of the first Switchblade 300 kill, but no details other than it "exceeded expectations".

 

From the early reporting it would seem that this offensive is, as expected, going to be very costly for the Russians even if they should ultimately succeed.  The above report is the equivalent of a full BTG taken off the map in the initial attack.  Given that the committed BTGs are not likely full strength, this could be the equivalent of knocking 3 or 4 out of action.

If Ukraine can make each day as costly as the previous one, I don't see how this attack will keep forward motion for more than a couple of days.

And then what?

They'll have a large amount of very capable Ukrainian forces thinly contained that have to be reduced of obligated to surrender.  Ukrainians have a track record of not giving up even after many weeks of being partially or totally cut off.  I do not expect the Ukrainian forces along the Donetsk line to behave any differently.  Every loss Russia takes sealing them off is less they have available to eliminate the pockets.

Hopefully Ukraine has repositioned it's successful rear area fighters to keep things "interesting" for the Russians.

And finally... there is the push out of Kharkiv to watch.  This still has a potential to be destabilizing, or at least distracting, for the new Russian offensive.

Steve

 

[kraze]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

The last thing you see before you die. Harsh.

Could've stayed at home - would've died of natural stomach-related causes in the hands of his hating wife. For not sending her worn panties and golden teeth from Ukraine unlike his neighbor.

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Could've stayed at home - would've died of natural stomach-related causes in the hands of his hating wife. For not sending her worn panties and golden teeth from Ukraine unlike his neighbor.

That is another definition of harsh .

[TheVulture]

29 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Probably initial gains that will have everyone freaking out and running around like headless chicken and then a slow fizzle out. Like the Ardennes, the 1918 offensives etc...

Pretty much. Hasn't it been a pretty immutable pattern since the invention of the blitzkrieg that you can't realistically stop a mechanized attack at the point of the initial attack - you try and disrupt it, slow it down, and narrow the penetration frontage as much as you can and move reserve units to contain and eventually eliminate the breakthrough?

[akd]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia has committed 810th and 155th Naval Brigades in the Lysychansk area.  These are badly damaged units previously withdrawn from Kiev.

810th has been fighting, and taking big losses, in Mariupol.

Edited April 18, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

810th has been fighting, and taking big losses, in Mariupol.

These are the two notes we have on officer casualties to date.  Likely far more that we don't know yet considering how badly they got beat up in Mariupol.  There is some confusion about the second guys rank.

Colonel Alexei Sharov, commander of the 810th Marine Brigade.  5 days later Col Vladimir Kryvolapov replacement commander of the 810th Marine Brigade only a Sgt?

 

[Battlefront.com]

Addendum to my previous post.

What I described at the end was a situation where Russia effectively completes its encirclement of Ukrainian forces.  What I didn't do is speculate about how Russia could come up short.  Since that's always fun to do, here are my thoughts.

It is pretty easy for Russia to bottle up the forces east of Izyum.  I think we should assume that will happen.  But everything else is far less certain.

Taking Slovyansk quickly is incredibly important.  It is the equivalent of Bastogne for the Germans in the Battle of The Bulge.  Or perhaps like Sumy was in the earlier part of the war.  Whatever the analogy, it will be difficult for it to sustain operations southward towards Donetsk without taking over Slovyansk's road nexus.  In theory pressure from the south could make up for any delays at taking it, but so far there's been little indication that the Russian and proxy forces there are capable of breaking through, not to mention driving ~40km north.

There is, I think, a real chance that what I've called Phase 2 will be stalled out. 

Phase 3, which is the cross country linkup west of Slovyansk, is a huge challenge for Russia to pull off.  See The_Capt's analysis of this.  At the very least it is going to be significantly slower than Russia needs it to be if Phase 2 stalls.  Russia has, so far, shown an acute inability to sustain forward momentum in areas where road access is limited.  And in much of this area, that's exactly what the roads are... limited.

And then there's this to consider:

 

Every single day for the next week has a significant chance of putting water into the ground.  Cross country warfare is going to be very challenging for both sides.  Even with the roads in Russian hands, it's going to be tough to avoid repeats of congested areas being slaughtered by Ukrainian artillery, drones, and infantry ambushes.

Very early on in the war I suggested it would be very smart for Ukraine to have a large number of platoon sized light infantry forces ready for 2-4 days of self-sustained attack.  I have no idea if they listened to me or not ;), but if they did... this is exactly the time to use them.  Russian LOCs are going to be highly vulnerable and poorly defended.  As we have seen, Russia can only go for 1-2 days before logistics issues catch up with them.  They will need far more than that to conclude this operation, so plenty of chances to cause major disruption of offensive capabilities.

Warm up the tractors, top off their fuel, and get out extra sets of tow chains... if things go as I hope they will, the farmers are likely going to have a busy April.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, akd said:

810th has been fighting, and taking big losses, in Mariupol.

IIRC it was confirmed the brigade was split up to try and breath life into more than one area.  Which probably means the portion of the 810th that just got hit is no longer much of a concern as it likely was the equivalent of a single BTG.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Pretty much. Hasn't it been a pretty immutable pattern since the invention of the blitzkrieg that you can't realistically stop a mechanized attack at the point of the initial attack - you try and disrupt it, slow it down, and narrow the penetration frontage as much as you can and move reserve units to contain and eventually eliminate the breakthrough?

Kinda.  More accurately there is a small window of opportunity to defeat a mechanized attack at the initial point of attack, but it is more of a binary thing; either you defeat it before it breaks your line or it breaks through and you have to defeat it elsewhere.  Even in heavily defended areas, like in the Kursk offensive, this seemed to be the case.  I think it's because it's just not realistic for second and third tier defenses to block all possible avenues for advance.  Stalling, diverting, whatever... yes, but not stopping.

Ukraine has certainly thwarted a lot of mechanized attacks in this war, including actions just yesterday.  But we've also seen plenty of actions where the Russians have breached an otherwise stable blocking position and taken significant ground on the other side.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interestingly, ISW has not uploaded an update.  Usually it has them up before between 3pm and 5pm EST.  It is now 6pm EST.  They are likely taking the time needed to collate and assess the late coming news.

In the spirit of our long ago Night Of The Refresh Monkeys, I am going to hammer their site with F5 screen refreshes

Steve

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interestingly, ISW has not uploaded an update.  Usually it has them up before between 3pm and 5pm EST.  It is now 6pm EST.  They are likely taking the time needed to collate and assess the late coming news.

In the spirit of our long ago Night Of The Refresh Monkeys, I am going to hammer their site with F5 screen refreshes

Steve

Quite a bit of tension was built up waiting for this moment of truth. Quality of sleep tonight is going to be really crappy.

Edit: ISW is here already  The first map at least

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

Targeted cyber phishing attack by Russia against Ukrainians:

 

[danfrodo]

Well, time for some patience.  This won't be decided in a day.  If Russians are stopped it's a very good sign.  If they advance it may or may not mean anything after a few days.  And there's mud

Russians had those long tentacles reaching from east to west toward Kyiv, and they were simply cut off and left to wither.  How RA is going to pull this off with worse troops than it had before is a mystery to me.  I hope the UKR artillery is ready. 

And are they actually getting what they need from the west??  And are those reserves we've heard so much about in the area, at least to add defense in depth?

[Huba]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Well, time for some patience.  This won't be decided in a day.  If Russians are stopped it's a very good sign.  If they advance it may or may not mean anything after a few days.  And there's mud

Russians had those long tentacles reaching from east to west toward Kyiv, and they were simply cut off and left to wither.  How RA is going to pull this off with worse troops than it had before is a mystery to me.  I hope the UKR artillery is ready. 

And are they actually getting what they need from the west??  And are those reserves we've heard so much about in the area, at least to add defense in depth?

Reportedly the first transports from last batch of US military help already started arriving I think on Saturday, this probably includes Switchblades. There was report today that Ukrainians train with US guns, but that's in CONUS so probably a week away at least till those start shooting.

[acrashb]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Reportedly the first transports from last batch of US military help already started arriving I think on Saturday, this probably includes Switchblades.

This is hopeful.  Countering it, stuff has to filter to the front volume of action and be integrated from a training and doctrine perspective.  I doubt that happens meaningfully in three days. So stuff the UA already knows about (Javelins) will be in play but stuff they are still learning (switchblades) maybe no so much.

Edited April 18, 2022 by acrashb

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Reportedly the first transports from last batch of US military help already started arriving I think on Saturday, this probably includes Switchblades. There was report today that Ukrainians train with US guns, but that's in CONUS so probably a week away at least till those start shooting.

I am just imagining what a dozen or so switchblades could do to a roadbound column.  Destroy the lead elements, blocking the road, then follow on vehicles go around, chewing up the ground and pretty soon things are bogged.  Friction and destruction.