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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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22 minutes ago, akd said:

This is DNR, not Russian Army, I think.  Isn’t “3rd Corps” the recently created formation filled with conscripts from occupied areas?

Obviuos mistake - Horlivka is "home" of 3rd DPR brigade. This is "cadre" unit, since 24th of Feb it was filled both reservivts and conscripts, but there was a video, in first days of war that many of conscripts of this brigade were captured by 95th air-asssault brigade

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Notice that UAVs have stripped away the first three layers and smart ATGMs strip away the forth (mobility/cover) and likely the last two (armor and luck).

So when you combine UAVs and UGVs armed with (especially) NLOS weaponry, what layers of the onion remain?  APS (which isn't on his onion chart) will be the only hope of survival.  Armor won't be.

At the very least a new onion is needed with EW and counter UAV capabilities trying to keep the weapon from getting close enough for the final layer, APS, to defeat it.

True, logistics don't go away.  However, all logistics are a fraction of a concern for UGVs as they are for MBTs.  For example, my Ford F-250 and 16' car trailer allows me to take three of these bad boys home for repairs.  I think we all know how many MBTs I could take home with me!

MUTT-50 copy.jpg

The strip malls the CIA uses for its UGV crews are often in bad neighborhoods, but I still say they are safer than the battlefield ;)

The personnel that have to sustain these vehicles in the field need less protected space than tanks do.  They can be done in many locations, such as a civilian car garage, that would not be possible for a MBT.  Harder to spot a UGV being serviced under cover than a MBT out in the open.

Yes, but all those fancy bits of stuff stuck to MBTs are also vulnerable to EW.  If EW knocks out a UGV it's more readily replaceable.  EW knocking out an a tank's electronics just before a ATGM hits is very different.

Steve

To my mind it we seem to be missing the fact that "it" has already happened, as in past tense.  And by "it" I do not mean the death of the tank, I mean how we think about tanks, armored warfare and conventional mass.

For example, tank is a core part of a capability, one whose job it is to translate energy into effects.  Higher levels of warfare then link those effects into decisions, and decisions into outcomes; this is the language of the communication of warfare.  That language has shifted.  After this war we will not look at tanks the same way we did before it.  Tanks, like battleships/dreadnought used to be a known metric of potential military power; a metric of land warfare, it meant something to say "we have 1000 tanks". 

After this war "we have 1000 tanks" as a metric of how well we can communicate war will mean something different.  We cannot un-think that.  All the remains is trying to understand what that after-meaning is or is not.

I do not know, but I definitely will say it was not what it was on 23 Feb 22. 

Edited by The_Capt
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21 minutes ago, womble said:

As I believe it's been surmised the Russians have discovered in Ukraine, jamming (enough to kill the enemy's C4) is a two-edged sword. And a jammer is a big signature waiting to get deleted; I don't think it's a big step from Javelin to "Local ARM" to be infantry-carried or mounted on one of the UGV swarm. I think the "inferior" UGV operator might try to jam the control channels, but the UGV organism will have antibodies to deal with the threat.

I think that with UGVs the crucial difference is the ranges at which engagements take place and the fact that terrain generally restricts the lines of sight, limiting your comms to a large degree. I'd think that jamming an UGV radio link from 30 meters in urban setting (with some dedicated device/ weapon yet to be designed that can be a LOS/ beam type device), would be quite a different level of challenge that generally denying the skies to low level flying UAVs through jamming.

My point being that the combat UGV, designed for face to face combat and not launching NLOS misiles will have to have a degree of autonomy built in them. Which is fine, just really creepy.

Edited by Huba
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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is going to be a lot of post-war study about the partisan activities that we are only getting tiny hints about right now:

 

There is an update on that now, according to this source locals "just" helped to correct artillery fire.

https://odessa-journal.com/the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-hit-the-enemies-in-tokmak-local-residents-helped/

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1 minute ago, dan/california said:

You COULD give us all more likes?  Please? 😁

too many likes can only lead to trouble.  Why back in the day we didn't even HAVE likes. When you wanted to like something you had to go see em, send a letter, or call them... on a rotary dial phone!  You young people today have it so easy.  😎

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3 minutes ago, sburke said:

too many likes can only lead to trouble.  Why back in the day we didn't even HAVE likes. When you wanted to like something you had to go see em, send a letter, or call them... on a rotary dial phone!  You young people today have it so easy.  😎

Don't forget we had to walk 5 miles uphill both ways just to send those likes through snail mail lol

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32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If I didn't already use all my likes on Finland already I'd use some more right now!  By God I love those crazy people :)

Steve

+1 on that 🙂 . The one guy, that I like most on my jobb. Is from Finland. He is a tall guy, like 6´5. And have trained Taekwondo, BJJ, and Muay Thai earlier. Now only MMA. And we are 50+ And he is one of the nicest guy, I´v ever met. We have children at the same age. And are borne the same year to. But thats a really nice guy!  

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10 minutes ago, sburke said:

too many likes can only lead to trouble.  Why back in the day we didn't even HAVE likes. When you wanted to like something you had to go see em, send a letter, or call them... on a rotary dial phone!  You young people today have it so easy.  😎

The likes came, 2018-2019 I think? The first year, or so. You could Dislike to, but that went of the table fast!

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27 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The beginning of the backing and filling perhaps? Maybe Putin has purged his way down to command layer that has told him what is actually going on?

The anecdotal information is piling up quite nicely.  needing to smuggle arms from Iran -- wtf?  Shutting down T72 factory due to lack of foreign components-- wtf?  Night falls AGAIN and no great offensive -- wtf?  And now state TV pundit-clowns say "withdrawal" -- wtf? 

Where on earth is Putin going to get the resources to engage in a long war if he already is having severe shortages of trained soldiers, modern weapons, and officers to command the endeavor?  I like where this is all going. 

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42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The beginning of the backing and filling perhaps? Maybe Putin has purged his way down to command layer that has told him what is actually going on?

The comments in the actual Twitter link make the point that this was an old clip  and the guy was not invited back ...so maybe not so good as it looks ?

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I'm seeing reports that Ukraine is seriously concerned about running out of artillery ammunition. They are using thousands of rounds a day. They have Russian artillery, not Western artillery at the moment and the 40,000 rounds the US is sending isn't going to last long. I was under the assumption the 40,000 rounds was for the 18 155mm howitzers being sent, but it may be Russian ammo we had in storage that can be used with the Russian artillery Ukraine has?

it looks like the Russian artillery Ukraine is using is different calibers. Can you use 155mm ammo in 152mm artillery? I would think not. I also believe some of the Ukraine artillery is 122mm and the rocket launchers are a completely different story.

I remember years ago I was told the Russians developed 82mm mortars so they could use captured 81mm mortar ammo, but it doesn't sound like its possible to use 155mm ammo in a 152mm gun doesn't make sense.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-may-begin-new-offensive-soon-us-officials-say-ukraine-runs-stoc-rcna24655

Edited by db_zero
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