How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

48 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Also regarding Russian threats to escalate pressure against the west, the Baltics have seemed to stand strong. Germany on the other hand.....

[TWEET]

Wouldn't want Germany to become the next target, its bad for business. 

The argument makes no sense. Plenty of countries have sent far more modern tanks and other more impactful stuff already and nothing has happened besides Putin driving his Nukes back and forth.

I do not in the slightest think old 60s IFVs and Leo1s will be the thing that changes Putins objective from Kyiv to Berlin. Even if, what will he do, drive through Ukraine and the entire NATO force to get there? 

I think it's just the SPD applying internal pressure to cool off the rethoric as it makes Scholz look bad because he has not just been dragging his feet, what he does right now is more akin to actively running against the wind.

Probably because of imports and how that would absolutely destroy the economy, according to the firms impacted by it, not economists.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kraft

[panzermartin]

30 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

I don’t like the tone (or dismissiveness over implications for the global south) but at the same time, I can see why he’s pissed: DE and FR are dragging their heels in support to Ukraine compared to others.

The EU and NATO looks like a cosy and exclusive club: good to be in but not overly trustworthy if you’re not in.

Migration is another thread (potentially) but it’s not another sphere in which the EU, or any rich country, has covered itself in glory. The irony is that at the moment, the US, UK and EU look selfishly focussed on their back yard and only interested in Ukraine. Everyone else in the G20 or UN general assembly now looks on the massive efforts being made in Ukraine as selfishness: as unsatisfactory as it might be to Ukraine, it’s more than has been done for any other crisis.

Good points. The rest of the World might well wonder where was all this motivation when wars have been waging for decades around the globe. 

Unfortunately Kraze realizes the hard way that big powers intervene only when they have something to win. For those that reside in minor nations, we have learnt this bitter truth centuries now. Still in the case of Ukraine, EU countries are willing to pay a high price to assist (and in a case of WW3 a possible annihilation which is not something to take lightly). 

[The Steppenwulf]

18 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The argument makes no sense.

I think that's a misunderstanding, I read BeyondTheGrave' comment as sarcasm.

[The_Capt]

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is squaring  off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:

On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"

These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:

 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:

These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 

Ok so what? 

- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 

- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 

- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  

- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.

- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.

- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

Edited April 16, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000557710309

Atrocity stories that are jus indescribable.

[panzermartin]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:

On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"

These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:

 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:

These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 

Ok so what? 

- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 

- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 

- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  

- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.

- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.

- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

Haha I have been doing the same thing with this amazing flight Sim. Particularly along the first Kiev offensive axis . I hope more detailed world updates or mods will come for Ukraine ... 

I wish there is a possibility someone to reconstruct Mariupol in 3d photogrammerty quality to pre war condition. At least as a virtual monument of this war...

Edited April 15, 2022 by panzermartin

[Ts4EVER]

The flight sim pictures look 1:1 like the average Graviteam map.

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000557710309

Atrocity stories that are jus indescribable.

Yeah. The word I'm hearing is "no more ****ing off ramps".

[Probus]

2 hours ago, Saberwander said:

There are many reasons why they wouldn't immediately release videos. It could be used to identify the location or the number of launchers (is it a prototype or a serial version, ...). Also it was done at night, maybe the video is not that interesting. 

This is completely valid.  If there is any kind of operational security (OPSEC) issues concerning the attack.  Any trickery that probably went on, they can't release footage of the attack.  That would show their hand and stop it from working again or even being a deterrent in the future.  Once this no longer matters, then footage will begin to appear if it exists.

But then again, maybe it was a 688 attack sub torpedo that sank it and Ukraine is just claiming the missiles hit it to cover for the real cause. He...he... "And I... was never here."

 

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:

On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"

These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:

 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:

These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 

Ok so what? 

- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 

- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 

- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  

- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.

- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.

- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

It very well might be THE Tank Battle of our times, on the scale not seen since WW2. Even Yom Kippur looks pale compared to the sheer size of the theater and forces involved. A Kursk redux indeed. 
I really try not to  feel giddy because of the events about to unfold, there will be people dying by a thousands probably.

[Kraft]

24 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

I think that's a misunderstanding, I read BeyondTheGrave' comment as sarcasm.

I was talking about the argument brought forward by the vice chancelor as to why heavy equipment should not be sent.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kraft

[Kraft]

 

[Aragorn2002]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:

On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"

These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:

 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:

These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 

Ok so what? 

- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 

- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 

- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  

- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.

- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.

- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

Superb post. Thank you and keep them coming please.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Probus]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:

On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"

These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:

 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:

These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 

Ok so what? 

- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 

- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 

- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  

- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.

- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.

- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

@The_Capt, I know the Russians haven't been all that savvy about finessing a situation, but if they used weather conditions that caused severe foggy/hazy conditions to attack in, would that really help or hurt the Ukrainian defense.  It would make for better NLAW conditions but the longer range ATGMs may prove much less useful.

I really wish Black Sea could come out with a pre-release that had all the Western AT weapons included in the TOE for the Ukrainians. Plus leopards, M113s,... so we could simulate the possible upcoming battles and see how the simulations match reality.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Probus

[benpark]

Such clear lines-of-sight.

I've heard a few experts on the talk-box saying that this phase could favor the Russians, due to their armored force's ability to "stretch their legs" in the more open terrain (we see it isn't really, in the details from the ground level). This seems to me to presuppose the Ukrainians counter with armor themselves for a "stand up fight". There may be aspects of that, but this phase of man-portable anti-tank warfare (I'm of the opinion that the first era was begun and demonstrated in 1945) will allow the defender a clear view of the attackers for a game of hit-and-run. Coupled with the level of intelligence being provided, this seems like a death-ride.

I'd be holding the tanks back for that counterattack trap phase, like cavalry in the pursuit from other eras. The Russians have failed at every level, but the ability (and motivation) to reach out and kill armor on the basis of a single soldier with an AT weapon is revolutionary.

Maybe mass will win the day, but that takes organization, and hoo boy that's also not a demonstrated strong suit.

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

So here is what I did.  I booked an MS Flight Simulator (MSFS) flight from Donetsk to Kharkiv roughly along this google maps line:

For reference you can see the ISW map of where this next great Russian offensive is spooling up:

They buried Donetsk under the legend but this is the area of concern.  So I did not use live weather as it is pissing rain there right now and based on what I am seeing it is a big reason the Russian have not started anything.  I flew at 1000 feet up but employed the drone feature to get down and grab a birds eye view.  Overall I would summarize the terrain in military terms as such:

On the 8th day, while recovering from a hangover God looked upon the earth and said to himself "You know these shaved apes are going to go at each other the second I turn my back so I may as well make it interesting.  Let there be tank country!"

These shots are just south - southwest of Izyum.  So on the surface you can immediately see a lot of room for manoeuvre tailor made for armored warfare.  I mean I can see frontages of kms just aching for big ol tank formations to come charging through with all sorts of room for bypassing, flanking and all that good stuff.  But then go a bit deeper:

So if you take a look at that last one, check out the VFR map in the upper right.  There are a lot of water features distributed all over this area and in the spring they are going to be deep and muddy.  Little lakes and rivers just about everywhere that amphib IFVs can probably bounce but tanks, arty and logistics are going to have trouble with.  So what?  Target the engineering stuff with all them fancy switchblades, then arty, then C2...we will get to logistics.  Next how about all them rectangles:

 Yep, a lot of these little and big squares all over the place...damn Ukrainian real estate laws.  For armored warfare these are going to be a problem.  Easy button answer...arty them all!  Well no one on earth has enough arty for that as these things are everywhere.  Each one a short range tank hunting dream, with ready made tractor trails to boot off on once you have fired off a couple NLAWS and are falling back to the next one to re-set.  These thing will soak up attacking infantry to sweep and will slow things down a lot.  Oh wait there is more:

These are not CM3 previews (but we can dream) but in MSFS you can drop right down to eye-level and wow.  First off this area is not flat. "Undulating" is the term we would use, with lots of small hills and ridges, all of which give some sightlines we normally only see in a desert.  So if I had a smart, fire and forget ATGM system with a listed range of 4.0km and was trying to sell it, these are the marketing shots I would take.  I found these everywhere along the route but more so towards the south end of the likely Russian advance (or North from Donetsk but that is all trench country from the last war, so not likely). 

Ok so what? 

- First off if this thing goes off it will be a conventional battle for the history books.  I mean the next one with this sort of potential is likely Armageddon itself.  We have a near perfect storm of mass meets mass forming up.  The collision on this has potential to be heard around the world. 

- Second, this will be a major exam for conventional armored warfare.  "End of Tanks: No They Are Not" may very well be settled in this one.  You cannot really find much better terrain for armored warfare on one hand.  While on the other, this is also excellent terrain for an mobile defence.  The Russians should be able to create a break out with overwhelming mass here, if they play it right.  While at the same time between prepared defenses and a combination of short and very long sightlines the Ukrainian defence should be able to stop them cold - that is an epic collision in the making. 

- Third, so much of this will hinge on C4ISR it is looking more like an aerial dogfight than a traditional land-battle.   The side that can see first at the tactical level will likely hit and win first.  We should see more exchanges like were seen in the Nagorno-Karabahk which were very long range and then working in for the dirty work.  

- Fourth, the Russian offence is going to have to evolve.  They cannot bring their last fight to this one.  They will need to rethink C4ISR collection and sharing, logistical planning - pushing a lot more forward faster, and targeting.  The UA can keep doing what it was to be honest but it had better have made use of this pregnant pause to put in a lot of AT minefields that tie those water obstacles and rectangles together, they had the time and I can only hope they have the resources; this country is set up for nightmare defensive belts.

- Fifth, this will also be an exam for artillery, ATGMs, self-loitering and unmanned systems.  This will show what they can really do together, primarily in the defense but let's not forget the offence as well.  There are sightlines that can make full use of the ranges these systems can come bring to bear.  Honestly if I were the UA, I would stick with hybrid at the front end, and then wait for my moment for a conventional c-attack because it could be a bone crusher.  Given enough gas, a UA formation could drive right into the Russian rear areas and cry-freakin-havok back there looking at this terrain.

- Sixth, the awkward conversation about airpower.  This is perfect CAS country, the Russian's need it, the UA needs to deny it. With full on air superiority this country would be a challenge for an attacker, without it we could be looking at a nightmare. 

Finally, I would close by saying that I also get the sense that this is perfect terrain for an operational trap - it is what I would do.  

#1 - Resist Russian main axis of advance...but just enough to attrit but give them hope.  I would use obstacles to keep them on those axis and help channel them to what they want.

#2 - Oh look at how happy they Russian are, they have their great pincer BUT do not give them time for reorientation or to dig in, or they could use this country against you.

#3- Bil Hardenberger.  That old bastard has snap the jaws closed on me more times than I care to remember.  This country is made for a conventional c-attack to cut that corridor up and off.#4 - Feeding time.

This terrain supports this and the Russians have given the UA a lot of time to set it up.  Higher risk but the payoff is intense. 

Just spit-balling here and I have every confidence they UA commanders on the ground have a grip on this but for a defender that 1) knows what they are doing, 2) are well resourced and 3) have the time to prepare, this could make for a textbook defence that could be turned into something else.

Truly outstanding !

 

[dan/california]

I can see this being great ground for a Russian offensive in say late June. The current weather forecast though it isn't going to dry out enough to mechanized operations fun for at least a month. Do we have any feel for the Ukrainians' ability to induce localized flooding in some convenient spots?

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I can see this being great ground for a Russian offensive in say late June. The current weather forecast though it isn't going to dry out enough to mechanized operations fun for at least a month. Do we have any feel for the Ukrainians' ability to induce localized flooding in some convenient spots?

Looking at the map, not so much this time.It might be the other way around even, as in the north Russians could actually flood the valleys of Siverskyi Donets and Oskil river along the flanks of their northern positions to hamper counterattacks. The latter was already done once by Ukrainians during fight to Izyum.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Huba

[Probus]

Sorry, but the sub titles had me laughing so hard I was crying...

 

[Aragorn2002]

Same as in ww2 after Kursk the Russians have the numbers and firepower to break through wherever they chose. But the Ukrainians had the time to dig in and they will realize the importance of absorbing the Russian hammer blows with elastic defense. They will probably also taken into account that a tactical retreat will be very difficult, but might be necessary to live and fight another day. I don't see the Russians being able to prevent that, even if they can gain air superiority over the battlefield. All in all the Ukrainians will try to make the Russians bleed as much as possible and since this might be Putins last sizeable army, the outcome of this war will be decided in the coming weeks. One thing is for sure, the Russian artillery barrages will be devastating. The Germans tried to predict those in 1944/1945 and evacuate the front positions before the balloon went up. In some cases this was very effective to avoid the destruction of the  German units in the frontline.

Probably thinking too much in ww2 terms, so would like the opinion of the real experts.

My thoughts are with those brave Ukrainian soldiers in their trenches and foxholes. I'm sure they will fight as lions for their country and we should send them all the weapons we can, as quickly as we can.

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[mosuri]

Peeking inside a russian drone: https://youtu.be/1sPKSMeonxg

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so apologize for what will be a longish post, even for me.  So welcome to The Capt's terrain analysis for the possible upcoming fight between Izyum and Donetsk.  Basically I wanted to get a view of the terrain this next major fight is sqauring off over and try and pull some deductions from that.  

I hope you saved a copy to your harddrive

Thank you for that excellent analysis.  MS Flight Simulator has come a long way since the time I first used it ~1984.  Ah.... monochrome vector graphics... I have a soft spot in my heart for you!

Adding to what you said:

Of all the multitude of problems Russia has, there's major one that's at the root of all Russia's failures so far... lack of infantry.  Infantry to help break through any organized lines of resistance, infantry to hold the ever expanding flanks, infantry to contain/destroy pockets of resistance, infantry to hold terrain gained, and loads of infantry to keep pesky partisans and cut off survivors from causing problems.

Even if Russia suddenly fixed all of its various problems that have doomed them in this war so far, not having enough infantry means this scale of attack will not work.  Since Russia doesn't have multiple thousands of infantry (yes, that is what it would need) to conduct an operation of this scale successfully, I don't see any chance of it succeeding even if previous mentioned problems were all taken care of.

To put this into perspective, a full strength BTG has about 225 infantry available to it.  300 if you're talking about a BTG that is infantry centric.  Let's call the minimum force requirement 5000 dismounted infantry.  That's the equivalent of 17-22 BTGs.  Russia has something like 80 or so in the fight right now and they are all fully committed, so they don't count.  It has probably another 30 or so reconstituting behind the lines with another 40 or so probably too shattered to even think about.

What this means is Russia would have to fully refit the bulk of its highly degraded BTGs to have the minimum to pull off this attack under ideal circumstances.  This will take MONTHS to get ready for.

Now, we have to add to this the fact that Ukrainian defenders are not going to make this an "ideal circumstances" for the attacker.  Massed artillery, proven defensive capabilities, very dangerous defensive weaponry, partisans, incredibly high morale, etc. all frown upon a Russian offensive's chances of success.

Then we should get back to the real world we live in and remember that Russian morale is low, tactical control is terrible, operational control has thus far been "sub par" (yes, I'm being cheeky!), and coordination of arms pretty much non-existent.

Put all of this together with The_Capt's terrain/weather analysis and I don't see Russia pulling this off, but I do see a lot of tractors pulling off a lot of Russian vehicles.

Ah, and about those Russian vehicles.  Notice that I've concluded Russia will lose this battle because it doesn't have infantry.  So what about the armor?  Can it make up for its deficiency in dismounted infantry with tanks and 1/2 empty IFVs?  No.  They can't take ground, they can't hold ground.  All they can do is set the conditions for infantry to do those things.  But if there's no infantry, there's no taking and holding.  Which means all those armored things do is create a lot of noise to attract unwanted attention from Ukraine's proven abilities to turn them into burnt metal.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

23 minutes ago, benpark said:

Such clear lines-of-sight.

I've heard a few experts on the talk-box saying that this phase could favor the Russians, due to their armored force's ability to "stretch their legs" in the more open terrain (we see it isn't really, in the details from the ground level). This seems to me to presuppose the Ukrainians counter with armor themselves for a "stand up fight". There may be aspects of that, but this phase of man-portable anti-tank warfare (I'm of the opinion that the first era was begun and demonstrated in 1945) will allow the defender a clear view of the attackers for a game of hit-and-run. Coupled with the level of intelligence being provided, this seems like a death-ride.

I'd be holding the tanks back for that counterattack trap phase, like cavalry in the pursuit from other eras. The Russians have failed at every level, but the ability (and motivation) to reach out and kill armor on the basis of a single soldier with an AT weapon is revolutionary.

Maybe mass will win the day, but that takes organization, and hoo boy that's also not a demonstrated strong suit.

Ive seen a lot of takes like this, with the premise being that ATGMs will save the Ukrainian day. I just want to add the historical context which is that this situation, and the one @The_Capt describes, is not all that dissimilar to the Sinai front in '73. Long sight lines, an emplaced enemy, and lots of ATGMs. Capt's terrain analysis isn't that far off either. While the Suez region isn't exactly rolling hills, its pretty flat and open with a ridge on the Israeli side and a berm on the east bank of the canal. Plus the area is dotted with lots of unmarked wadis and depressions, holes, shell craters, and a few built up areas like the Chinese farm which have manmade obstacles. Israel launched two counter attacks into a well planned and layered Egyptian defense, built on the corner stone of the AT-3 ATGM. The first counter attack was a HUGE disaster. Israeli forces went in mounted and peace meal and were whacked down. It was for sure one of those 'death of the tank' moments. But the second attack was phased, well executed, and well fought. It started at night, not broad daylight, paratroopers advanced first mounted then dismounted and cleared out Egyptian positions, and over all of it tanks provided fire support. By the time the sun rose the Sagger teams were in trouble, and Israel was on the way to breaking through. Which they did, then proceeded to go on a great big knockabout in Egypt proper. 

I bring this up for two reasons. First, this problem isn't really new. Its been around damn near fifty years, or longer if you want to date it back to 1945. Its a tough problem to crack. But, and this is the second reason, it can be done if certain preconditions are met. The first Israeli attack failed because it was hammered by Egyptian ATGMs and RPGs, the Israelis had failed to plan a detailed attack and instead fought the battle mostly from the saddle. Artillery support was quite poor, and infantry still hadn't moved forward in strong numbers. Plus the air force was basically non-existent. Israel tried to replace planning and coordination (the entire combat team) with aggression and speed. It failed. The second attack slowed the tempo of the initial attack down a bit. Initially it assumed no contact with Egyptian forces (a mistake) but once contact was made, the Israelis slowed down and used their infantry to good effect clearing out AT positions. It was tough bloody work, but the combination of arty and tanks kept heads down long enough for paratroopers to jump into the next ditch and clear it out. Once the wedge had been driven into the position, they could then switch over to speed, aggression, and mounted exploitation. 

I think its interesting to think about what I would do as the Russian commander to make the most of this situation. (Would be interested to hear other takes. If you were promoted to field marshal and your job was to win in the Donbas/Southern fronts, what would your plan be?) For me I think Capt and Benpark illustrate the challenges well. I would look to the Israeli solution (though surely Soviet doctrine had their own spin on this basic concept) in how to move forward. Drive in the wedge with a heavy infantry/artillery attack, keep tanks out of NLAW range but supporting the advance, insert your mobile mass once the crack has been made and you can start pushing through. Of course its easy to say this, but it requires a lot of things we havn't seen the Russians do. Like fight big infantry engagements, use the combined arms team in its proper role, plan out and win a set-piece battle, or even do the basic elements of coordination you'd expect. The problem isn't insurmountable. The Israelis were tired, exhausted, worn out from combat, low on certain supplies, fighting in tanks that had in many cases already been 'knocked out' once, and had lost several battles to that point. But they had a system which, IMO, fundamentally worked. I would say the opposite about the Russian system. In the one case this meant going back to basics was going back to success, but in the Russian case who knows where 'basics' will take them. Nowhere good I'm sure. 

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Ive seen a lot of takes like this, with the premise being that ATGMs will save the Ukrainian day. I just want to add the historical context which is that this situation, and the one @The_Capt describes, is not all that dissimilar to the Sinai front in '73. Long sight lines, an emplaced enemy, and lots of ATGMs. Capt's terrain analysis isn't that far off either. While the Suez region isn't exactly rolling hills, its pretty flat and open with a ridge on the Israeli side and a berm on the east bank of the canal. Plus the area is dotted with lots of unmarked wadis and depressions, holes, shell craters, and a few built up areas like the Chinese farm which have manmade obstacles. Israel launched two counter attacks into a well planned and layered Egyptian defense, built on the corner stone of the AT-3 ATGM. The first counter attack was a HUGE disaster. Israeli forces went in mounted and peace meal and were whacked down. It was for sure one of those 'death of the tank' moments. But the second attack was phased, well executed, and well fought. It started at night, not broad daylight, paratroopers advanced first mounted then dismounted and cleared out Egyptian positions, and over all of it tanks provided fire support. By the time the sun rose the Sagger teams were in trouble, and Israel was on the way to breaking through. Which they did, then proceeded to go on a great big knockabout in Egypt proper. 

I bring this up for two reasons. First, this problem isn't really new. Its been around damn near fifty years, or longer if you want to date it back to 1945. Its a tough problem to crack. But, and this is the second reason, it can be done if certain preconditions are met. The first Israeli attack failed because it was hammered by Egyptian ATGMs and RPGs, the Israelis had failed to plan a detailed attack and instead fought the battle mostly from the saddle. Artillery support was quite poor, and infantry still hadn't moved forward in strong numbers. Plus the air force was basically non-existent. Israel tried to replace planning and coordination (the entire combat team) with aggression and speed. It failed. The second attack slowed the tempo of the initial attack down a bit. Initially it assumed no contact with Egyptian forces (a mistake) but once contact was made, the Israelis slowed down and used their infantry to good effect clearing out AT positions. It was tough bloody work, but the combination of arty and tanks kept heads down long enough for paratroopers to jump into the next ditch and clear it out. Once the wedge had been driven into the position, they could then switch over to speed, aggression, and mounted exploitation. 

I think its interesting to think about what I would do as the Russian commander to make the most of this situation. (Would be interested to hear other takes. If you were promoted to field marshal and your job was to win in the Donbas/Southern fronts, what would your plan be?) For me I think Capt and Benpark illustrate the challenges well. I would look to the Israeli solution (though surely Soviet doctrine had their own spin on this basic concept) in how to move forward. Drive in the wedge with a heavy infantry/artillery attack, keep tanks out of NLAW range but supporting the advance, insert your mobile mass once the crack has been made and you can start pushing through. Of course its easy to say this, but it requires a lot of things we havn't seen the Russians do. Like fight big infantry engagements, use the combined arms team in its proper role, plan out and win a set-piece battle, or even do the basic elements of coordination you'd expect. The problem isn't insurmountable. The Israelis were tired, exhausted, worn out from combat, low on certain supplies, fighting in tanks that had in many cases already been 'knocked out' once, and had lost several battles to that point. But they had a system which, IMO, fundamentally worked. I would say the opposite about the Russian system. In the one case this meant going back to basics was going back to success, but in the Russian case who knows where 'basics' will take them. Nowhere good I'm sure. 

One main difference between the 73' Sinai Front and Donbas is that Egyptians lacked any strategic depth east of the Suez Canal, which forced them into a more or less static battle against Israelis. Ukrainians could fall back 50 km on the way of armored pincers and still not have their main forces in ATO surrounded.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Huba

[BeondTheGrave]

Also:

More on the 'claims'

Quote

Russia claims to have destroyed 132 aircraft, 105 helicopters, 245 surface-to-air missile systems, 456 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2,213 tanks and other combat armored vehicles, 249 multiple launch rocket systems, 966 field artillery guns and mortars and 2,110 special military motor vehicles.

This would exceed or close to exceed Ukraine’s pre-war stock of most of these categories of equipment.

Just for comparison, Oryx is reporting 17 destroyed aircraft, 3 helos, 43 SAM 'systems' 14 drones, something on the order of 300 tanks and IFVs, etc. etc. I think at times UA OPSEC has been enough to deflate Oryx's numbers, but even if you double the Oryx losses, youre still looking at not even 1/3rd of what is being reported here. 

So this goes in the 'lol' category I think.