How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Short article about Dugin, probably the most influential Russian thinker in of the past 30 years, is saying about the war in Ukraine.  Yup, the article shows how out of touch with reality he is:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/philosopher-known-as-putins-brain-says-russia-needs-to-escalate-ukraine-war/ar-AAWdUyM

[Battlefront.com]

New Radio Free Europe video on the ground with Ukrainian forces in Donetsk:

 

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, chris talpas said:

It really is an amazing piece of software.  Fun to explore the world and as you indicated it gives a very realistic depiction of the earth.  Seeing the terrain really helps in understanding how the battlefield will be impacted by it.

If you have the hardware to run at 4k it’s amazing and a black hole for your wallet with all the add ons you can get.
 

Roads, power lines, scenery, cell towers, smokestacks, global shipping, weather add ons to name just a few. 

The H145 Helicopter is my favorite.

[Fenris]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Different cut of same ****?

 

 

At about the 25 second mark he stops mid rant, realises he can't say war and asks, "the... what's in called? What are we waging right now?"  Normally I'd be inclined to pity them for being blind fools but these people are complicit in the narrative so they don't get a pass.

[asurob]

Riddle me this about Russian state media...now their screaming to destroy everything in Ukraine after the sinking of their cruiser.

 

What part of the last 51 or so days have they been sleeping through.  The Russian military tried to do just that...didn't happen.  Can they truly be this clueless?

[Battlefront.com]

From today's ISW report:

Quote

The loss of the Moskva will reduce Russia’s ability to conduct cruise missile strikes but is unlikely to deal a decisive blow to Russian operations on the whole. The Moskva’s main role was likely conducting precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in Ukrainian rear areas, including logistics centers and airfields. These Russian strikes have been effective but limited in number compared to airstrikes and ground-launched cruise missiles throughout the invasion, and the loss of the Moskva is unlikely to be a decisive blow. Ukraine's possibly demonstrated ability to target Russian warships in the Black Sea may change Russian operating patterns, however, forcing them to either deploy additional air and point-defense assets to the Black Sea battlegroup or withdraw vessels from positions near the Ukrainian coast.

The last big is what I've been thinking of since the hit was announced.  Russia is now in the unenviable position of having to weigh two competing interests against each other:

• the continued benefits of using naval power to interfere with Ukraine's economy and military efforts
• the risk of losing more naval assets, damaged or sunk, while performing said interference activities

This is a tough one.  If I were on the Russian side... I dunno, I think I'd probably come down on the side of protecting assets.  It seems that the Russian navy isn't doing all that much to influence the land battle at this point.  Even launching cruise missiles doesn't really have much impact.  Therefore, how much benefit is there in return for the risk?

If the Russians do decide to keep the navy to the west of Crimea, they will have to put together a task force instead of sending single ships here and there.  The task force means more resources invested in total, it also means more eggs in one basket.  More ships in one place conducting pretty much the same mission a single ship had previously been performing.  I don't know what the other naval tasks are on Russia's critical ToDo List, but I expect they'd have to give up something to concentrate naval power.

Let's assume Russia does put forward a larger naval force more capable of defense than a single ship.  Then what?  Well, they can expect Neptunes and TB-2 problems will persist.  And if Harpoons or the Norwegian systems show up, then things get even worse.  What happens if Ukraine not only zaps one ship, but more than one?  What then?  If we think of the Muskova as a PR nightmare for Russia, think about the disaster of offering the Ukrainians an encore presentation.

And we also have to ask the question... can Russia effectively defend against clever attacks?  One might think they can learn from the Muskova and avoid the same thing a second time.  But can they really do that?  My theory is that the TB-2 would have hit the Muskova with a missile if the Neptunes had failed.  Due to the smart nature of the munitions, they would have their choice of what system to take out.  Radar, bridge, ammo hold, etc.  Guaranteed you don't want to be on a ship that is deliberately targeted in such a way.

There are other things the Ukrainians could do.  For example, fly several TB-2s concurrently with two waves of missile attacks.  Having a fast patrol boat (I assume the still have something like this) move from another angle to cause confusion at a critical time.  Involve a fixed wing aircraft along with the other assets.  There's all kinds of creativity that could really pay off.

Finally, if I were the Russians I would be asking "what does Ukraine lose if it tries any of these things and fails?".  The answer is "not much".  Militarily they lose a drone or two and some missiles at most.  There will be no morale backlash in Ukraine or around the world for not landing a successful blow.  "Hey, they gave it a shot.  I hope they try again" will be the worst.  Doesn't play well even to Russians... "Ukrainians tried to sink more of our ships and they didn't manage it".  This doesn't scream confidence to me if it's clear that Ukraine got a second chance and there's no means of stopping them from doing it again.

In conclusion... I hope Russia puts more naval forces in place of the Muskova's previous mission.  Pretty please.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I see 4 soldiers in a wooded environment with 4 short range AT rockets.  This is a good example of why Russia is having such a hard time moving anywhere.

 

[asurob]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

In conclusion... I hope Russia puts more naval forces in place of the Muskova's previous mission.  Pretty please.

Steve

This please.  That being said I simply cannot see any competent Russian Admiral doubling down and putting his ships into harm's way like this again.  The fact that they have been operating this way for nearly two months (and this despite getting nailed at that port a few weeks ago) was more about hubris than anything else.  Twice burned and all that.  

I still can't get passed how poor their damage control was and how clearly they had to be operating in a warzone with open passageways etc.  

Clearly not competent.  Makes me wish I was still in and could get some of the real skinny from some of my former shipmates who knew a great deal more about such things.

Then again, who are we kidding.  It's the Russians.  They truly think they are a premiere naval and military power despite the events of the last 6 weeks.  They will surely do it again to try to make a point.  And I hope Ukraine teaches them another lesson.

Edited April 15, 2022 by asurob

[Battlefront.com]

Talk about improvements in bomb damage assessments!  This drone is zooming in so close they could probably identify the brand of cigarettes the Russians were smoking just before they got, uhm, smoked.  Really fascinating to see this:

 

[Battlefront.com]

This is kinda funny.  Russians abandon perfectly good equipment all over the place, but this Ukrainian soldier says "hey, there's nothing wrong with this one either!".  I tip my hat to the obviously superior driving schools that Ukraine puts its soldiers through.  This guy obviously graduated with honors:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another regimental commander KIA:

 

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another regimental commander KIA:

 

yep got him earlier today

[Kinophile]

If they are told to double down and "re-establish" naval presence with a proper "fleet" on station, then UKR could hit the docks once they're on location (as the AA/AD will be much reduced). Slam the docks repeatedly, especially the dockside warehouses and drydock facilities during day time., ideally just before a storm (to interfere with damage control and ships leaving). Do this repeatedly, over several days, during day time - kill off the key personnel directing repairs. The Drydocks are absolute priorities, as they must be repaired and the specialists who can do that properly are few in number. 

Ruining the docks is also a great way to really **** with the BSF morale.

This works too.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I see 4 soldiers in a wooded environment with 4 short range AT rockets.  This is a good example of why Russia is having such a hard time moving anywhere.

 

That settles it. Every scenario I do from now on, the UKR get a supply stash beside each platoon squad man at 0:01.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

More good info in the latest ISW report covering April 14.  This one in particular caught my eye as it might tell us a bit about how soon the Russian offensive might be:

Quote

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 14 that elements of Russia’s 2nd Combined Arms Army— which was previously withdrawn from the Chernihiv axis—are deploying around Severodonetsk.x If confirmed, this is the first Russian unit withdrawn from fighting in northeastern Ukraine to be recommitted to eastern Ukraine. These units likely remain degraded, and Russian forces will face challenges integrating units from several military districts into a cohesive fighting force.xi Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and did not make any territorial advances on April 14.xii The DNR claimed its forces drove back Ukrainian forces around Marinka on April 14, but ISW cannot independently confirm this claim.xiii The UK Ministry of Defense reported on April 14 that Russian forces in eastern Ukraine are employing “massive rocket and artillery strikes,” consistent with reports on the ground of continued Russian shelling along the line of contact.

The report also states:

• wasteful attacks out of the DLPR front lines continue to do little more than wrack up more kills for the Ukrainians
• Ukrainian Special forces blew up the Izyum bridge with Russian units on it
• the forced on-the-spot conscription of Donetsk men of fighting age has produced about 20% of the target of 60,000
• more progress in the Kherson region and confirms Ukrainian forces include airborne units
• huge explosion in Kherson likely due to partisan attack on supply dump
• partisan activities in and around Melitopol have led to at least 70 Russian deaths in the last month
• confirmation of what we've heard out of Mariupol

Steve

 

[sross112]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Talk about improvements in bomb damage assessments!  This drone is zooming in so close they could probably identify the brand of cigarettes the Russians were smoking just before they got, uhm, smoked.  Really fascinating to see this:

 

Sure are paranoid, they even immobilized that poor little tiny tractor out of fear of being towed away in the night!

On the video there are at least 5 grads and their support trucks there. Pretty nice hit.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Short article about Dugin, probably the most influential Russian thinker in of the past 30 years, is saying about the war in Ukraine.  Yup, the article shows how out of touch with reality he is:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/philosopher-known-as-putins-brain-says-russia-needs-to-escalate-ukraine-war/ar-AAWdUyM

Putin's very own Alfred Rosenberg, great.

I'd sooner get a root canal than listen to anything this scumbag has to say.

[altipueri]

Scuttling the Moskva  is part of the Russian plan to make Ukrainian forces in the Donbas reveal their positions through loud cheering and laughter.

[kraze]

5 hours ago, asurob said:

Did these bozos forget they are at war with Ukraine.  All's fair.  

Most likely they try to prepare their population for the prospect of the full mobilization.

Which says a lot about how bad the war is going for them. Guess they ran out of "40000 syrians".

It's why they shell their own territory daily and it's what they mean by "casus belli".

But if you want to cosplay Adolf - you have to do it before you start the war, not after - when you already lost most of your best troops along with thousands of pieces of hardware - and any green conscript will immediately notice that the chance of other, a lot more experienced, guys returning with stolen underpants and cups in their hands is about the same as them returning without the two. And I don't mean underpants and cups.

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

 

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

From today's ISW report:

The last big is what I've been thinking of since the hit was announced.  Russia is now in the unenviable position of having to weigh two competing interests against each other:

• the continued benefits of using naval power to interfere with Ukraine's economy and military efforts
• the risk of losing more naval assets, damaged or sunk, while performing said interference activities

This is a tough one.  If I were on the Russian side... I dunno, I think I'd probably come down on the side of protecting assets.  It seems that the Russian navy isn't doing all that much to influence the land battle at this point.  Even launching cruise missiles doesn't really have much impact.  Therefore, how much benefit is there in return for the risk?

If the Russians do decide to keep the navy to the west of Crimea, they will have to put together a task force instead of sending single ships here and there.  The task force means more resources invested in total, it also means more eggs in one basket.  More ships in one place conducting pretty much the same mission a single ship had previously been performing.  I don't know what the other naval tasks are on Russia's critical ToDo List, but I expect they'd have to give up something to concentrate naval power.

Let's assume Russia does put forward a larger naval force more capable of defense than a single ship.  Then what?  Well, they can expect Neptunes and TB-2 problems will persist.  And if Harpoons or the Norwegian systems show up, then things get even worse.  What happens if Ukraine not only zaps one ship, but more than one?  What then?  If we think of the Muskova as a PR nightmare for Russia, think about the disaster of offering the Ukrainians an encore presentation.

And we also have to ask the question... can Russia effectively defend against clever attacks?  One might think they can learn from the Muskova and avoid the same thing a second time.  But can they really do that?  My theory is that the TB-2 would have hit the Muskova with a missile if the Neptunes had failed.  Due to the smart nature of the munitions, they would have their choice of what system to take out.  Radar, bridge, ammo hold, etc.  Guaranteed you don't want to be on a ship that is deliberately targeted in such a way.

There are other things the Ukrainians could do.  For example, fly several TB-2s concurrently with two waves of missile attacks.  Having a fast patrol boat (I assume the still have something like this) move from another angle to cause confusion at a critical time.  Involve a fixed wing aircraft along with the other assets.  There's all kinds of creativity that could really pay off.

Finally, if I were the Russians I would be asking "what does Ukraine lose if it tries any of these things and fails?".  The answer is "not much".  Militarily they lose a drone or two and some missiles at most.  There will be no morale backlash in Ukraine or around the world for not landing a successful blow.  "Hey, they gave it a shot.  I hope they try again" will be the worst.  Doesn't play well even to Russians... "Ukrainians tried to sink more of our ships and they didn't manage it".  This doesn't scream confidence to me if it's clear that Ukraine got a second chance and there's no means of stopping them from doing it again.

In conclusion... I hope Russia puts more naval forces in place of the Muskova's previous mission.  Pretty please.

Steve

Before the Moskva devacle, I dared to write a little analysis about what the appearance of heavy AShMs in Ukrainian hands means, let me quote it:

On 4/13/2022 at 11:27 AM, Huba said:

Here's my take on the impact those AShMs will make, first a question though: do we know for sure that the missiles that will be delivered are indeed Harpoons? I heard many conflicting news, mentioning basically any missile at UKs disposal, starting with sea versions of Brimstone, up to Harpoons. I don't recall any confirmation being made. Anyway, assuming those are heavy missiles able to take out major surface combatants, not only patrol boats, and are delivered in large enough quantity( like 72 mentioned here), I thing that's what gonna happen:

- the potential landing around Odessa or in Budjak is out of the question, nobody's going to even think of risking that. Not that it was a viable option earlier anyway. What changes is that Ukraine can now reassign some of the anti invasion forces to different tasks, likely operations around Kherson.

- those missiles are too short ranged unfortunately to be a threat to Russian base in Sevastopol, you'd need at least 300 km range for that. Russian fleet still rules the high (black) seas and can launch remaining Kalibrs with impunity, no big impact here.

- now for the first interesting possibility. IF at some points Ukrainians are able to fight their way back to Sea of Azov shores, it means that it as a whole is denied to Russians more or less. No more supplying it's forces by the sea. On top of this, the whole Volga- Black Sea inland route would be closed to merchant traffic. This is really huge, makes you understand a bit why Russians are so insisting on the land bridge to Crimea. The Kerch bridghe won't be at risk though in my opinion. Even it was in range, Harpoons are way too small of a weapon to damage it sufficiently.

- the biggest potential for interesting things to happen lies however in fact that with Harpoons guarding the coast, Russians won't be able to do a close blockade of Odessa and whole Ukrainian Black Sea coast. We can discuss how many Harpoons would it take to hit Slava or Krivak etc, but I don't think that Black Sea Fleet would even risk their ships at all loitering in range of those missiles all the time. They will no longer be able to stop and board ships going from Romanian to Ukrainian territorial waters. If they want to keep the blockade up, they would have to outright attack those ships with AShMs from their fleet or from airplanes. Or by submarines. They can do it technically, but this approach has strong vibes of "Unlimited Underwater Warfare" of WW2, and is horrible from PR perspective.
This is the matter of greatest importance to Ukraine, as right now their economy is strangled by inability to export it's goods. A week ago there was supposed to be 25000 train cars waiting along the UE border, full of export goods. I see them trying to run the blockade. We might soon see some actual naval warfare.

Edit: There's still the question of sea mines floating around. Ukraine might have tough time trying to sweep those already emplaced, and Russians can continue mining operations from aircraft/ submarines.

Now the situation is even worse then I've envisioned here. First, the huge PR (and capability, especially C&C) loss was already suffered. Fleet has to remove itself from the Ukrainian shores.

On top of that, it is quite possible that Neptunes can reach Sevastopol - we don't know yet, but I wouldn't feel safe there. Novorossiysk is hundreds of miled further and sucks as a base, but there' no alternative now I think.

The rest of my analysis from above more or less stand's I think. If Russians are willing to just sink all the merchants, they still have plenty of capabilities to do so and Ukraine can't do much about it (planes/ mines/ submarines) at the moment. Sinking the grain ships and starving Africa sounds horrible though from PR pov. This is the next Russian bluff to call in upcoming weeks I think.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Huba

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

If Russians are willing to just sink all the merchants, they still have plenty of capabilities to do so and Ukraine can't do much about it (planes/ mines/ submarines) at the moment. Sinking the grain ships and starving Africa sounds horrible though from PR pov. This is the next Russian bluff to call in upcoming weeks I think.

Horrible from PR POV for whom?

Domestically russians couldn't care less. To them africans are even lower human beings than us. They just want their empire back.

Abroad? After Bucha they now know their oil and gas will be bought by EU regardless of them murdering european civilian population in all the horrible ways directly, let alone some africans indirectly.

You just come at an issue from a humane standpoint. But russians aren't very humane.

[Taranis]

 

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, kraze said:

Horrible from PR POV for whom?

Domestically russians couldn't care less. To them africans are even lower human beings than us. They just want their empire back.

Abroad? After Bucha they now know their oil and gas will be bought by EU regardless of them murdering european civilian population in all the horrible ways directly, let alone some africans indirectly.

You just come at an issue from a humane standpoint. But russians aren't very humane.

I'm not thinking about Russian internal narrative, nothing they do will impact that. But internationally it will worsen their stance even more, support for supplying Ukraine with arms will rise even more. As horrible as Bucha is, for many it's just some few hundred ppl, nothing to worry about, maybe it's staged etc. Going after merchant ships Kriegsmarine style is a different pair of socks altogether. Think Lusitania in WW2. This might be especially important vis a vis countries outside of the collective West.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, akd said:

Oh boy!

 

A bit off topic, but when someone links to a reddit video, it automatically starts playing with sound when I load the page, even if it's way down the list of posts.. this is quite annoying, does anyone know how to stop that? I'm using Firefox browser and autoplay is supposed to be disabled...

[Machor]

8 hours ago, DesertFox said:

You are correct. Sneaky invention that gregorian calender. It slipped to me that orthodox christs are still on good ol julian calender. 

It's more complicated than the differences between the calendars: In the Orthodox Church, Lazarus Saturday is a moveable feast, which results in the requirement that the Orthodox Easter has to follow the Jewish Passover. See here:

"Orthodox Easter: Why are there two Easters?"

"Also in the eastern Orthodox Church, Easter must happen after the Jewish festival of Passover - as in the Easter story, Jesus celebrates Passover before his death."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/48067272