How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

Does Russia have a dry dock and other facilities large enough to try to make repairs on such a warship ( assuming very unlikely case that it can be done in 2 years time let's say)?

They probably can make some repairs in Sevastopol in the best case scenario (if it's not torn up badly by all the ammo going off) but they most likely lack the required components anyway. It took them 4 years to upgrade the thing (due to start in 2016, but done in 2020) because of the issues with money and components as is.

But since there was ammo explosion and I don't believe for a second they would call 5 other service ships to put out a "small, localized fire", while evacuating everybody and sending SOS everywhere - that it's not just a badly damaged shell of what it was - that they try to keep afloat at any cost for propaganda's sake.

It's better to report your flagship is above the sea level even if it's just scrap metal - than to report it has joined Kursk in its exploration of how far you can sink.

Edited April 14, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

If the stories behind the tactics of using the drone to distract and fixate the most capable (but with significant blindspot) radar system are true, then that shows a supreme inside understanding of enemy unit technical weaknesses.

Yup.  Part of this is because for a long period of time Ukrainian naval officers were serving on the very same ships when they were part of the Soviet Navy.  For sure Russia has updated these ships, but for the most part prior to the 2014 war when the Ukrainian and Russian navies worked together to some degree.  And the time spent at Crimean ports before and after the 2014 is ample time for espionage.  I bet Russian sailors like to drink and their lips are loose enough to sink ships.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

That's a really good point - if major industrial corporations (say, auto manufacturers) had/have a hard time sourcing chips, then Russia is no exception. I know the company I used to work for that I referenced above can't build chips fast enough for their customers. 

There is also the whole problem that comes from free market forces.  If a rich company in a rich country is having difficulties getting what they want, you can be assured that a poor company in a poor country is even worse off.  Russia is somewhere in the middle of this pack, not at the top for sure.

Steve

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

They probably can make some repairs in Sevastopol in the best case scenario (if it's not torn up badly by all the ammo going off) but they most likely lack the required components anyway. It took them 4 years to upgrade the thing (due to start in 2016, but done in 2020) because of the issues with money and components as is.

But since there was ammo explosion and I don't believe for a second they would call 5 other service ships to put out a "small, localized fire", while evacuating everybody and sending SOS everywhere - that it's not just a badly damaged shell of what it was - that they try to keep afloat at any cost for propaganda's sake.

I'd guess that at the level of damage she suffered, it's probably cheaper and faster (and more cost effective!) to just build a new ship. Saving Moskva will be important from the PR perspective only, I don't imagine her making impact in this conflict. At most, they will make some PR posturing due to "saving" her, and then sell the hulk for scrap later. Best case scenario, you guys take her as a trophy when you reconquer Sevastopol

Edited April 14, 2022 by Huba
forgot that ships are female in english

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Images of the "1000" Ukrainian Marines that surrendered in Mariupol.  For sure it looks to be a large number, but 1000 + the 500 that tried to break out to the north + 300 that got down to Azov positions would mean that that Russia has basically caused no casualties for the Marines since the attack started.  That doesn't sound very realistic, does it?

https://southfront.org/1000-ukrainian-soldiers-surrendered-in-mariupol-afu-counterattacks-in-kharkiv/

Be forewarned that the above is a link to one of the worst Russian propaganda stinkholes on the Internet.

Steve

Don't worry - russians have also destroyed 3 times more ukrainian combat planes than we have. And yet somehow they still fly, just heard 3 going one after the other yesterday.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

Don't worry - russians have also destroyed 3 times more ukrainian combat planes than we have. And yet somehow they still fly, just heard 3 going one after the other yesterday.

I think Russia also claimed they destroyed 2 Ukrainian aircraft carriers and took over at least 1/2 of its moonbase.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another article on what might be going on with senior Russian leadership (repeating much of what we have heard already).  The big one to watch for is if Shoigu is in fact out of the picture or not:

https://ukranews.com/en/news/849493-shoigu-has-heart-attack-20-defense-ministry-generals-arrested-in-russia-nevzlin

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

12 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

supreme inside understanding of enemy unit technical weaknesses.  I am reminded of the scene in The Hunt for Red October

The Russians were much better back when they were commanded by Sean Connery...

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, photon said:

Thanks - I'll pick those up! Got to hit the library next week to pick up Beaufre's Introduction to Strategy, so will snag those as well. I'm on a second re-read of the Expanse right now; quite good. I also think Neal Stephenson's Anathem (oddly) does a nice job of analyzing strategic and operational art. In particular, it conceives of states of the world as points in a large vector space, and operations as moving through a world-line that's connected to the outcome you desire. That sounds a bit like the decision theory you're exploring.

Reading this thread, what's jumped out to me is the analogy to the Pacific Theatre in WWII with the Russians playing the part of the Japanese.

Each chose to launch an attack driven by ideological and operational concerns rather than strategic concerns. In the same way that the Japanese plan hinged on the Americans tapping out, the Russian plan appears to have hinged on a collapse of Ukranian resistance. Like the Japanese, they had a closing window when it appeared that strategic success was within reach, driven for the Japanese by the oil embargo and for the Russians by Ukraine's gradual tilt westward.

Operationally, the Japanese launched bold offensives that they could not support. They never had control of their lines of communication, especially after the USN figured out how to make torpedoes that actually exploded. The degradation of our submarines on the Japanese merchant navy are similar to the NLAW equipped light infantry wreaking havoc in the Russian LOCs. Like the Japanese, the Russians are penny-packeting troops into operations that have no momentum. Compare the repeated company sized attacks near Kiev with the flow of 500ish troops at a time into Guadalcanal on destroyers. Like the Americans, who carefully husbanded their (temporarily irreplaceable) naval assets until either strategic necessity (Coral Sea) or a huge tactical advantage (Midway) made their collective risk more palatable. Like the Americans, the Ukrainians have denied the Russians the decisive battle the appear to want, rather focusing on small attritional engagement and friction.

Time will tell whether Russian operational plans adapt in a way that Japanese operational plans did not.

Tactically, non-obvious factors in both Russian and Japanese formations turned out very important -- Japanese ships were light on AAA, had inferior (if any) CICs, and had poor damage control facilities and procedures, all of which turned out to be really important. Russian armored vehicles appear to have insufficient flotation and poor mobility maintenance, which appears to be really important.

Beyond that, American information supremacy eventually tilted carrier combat decisively in favor of the Americans, who could deliver CAP formations to just the right place to disrupt Japanese attacks. Similarly, Ukranian information dominance (?) is allowing them to attrit Russian formations and LOCs in ways that appear to seriously disrupt Russian attacks.

It's really bewildering to try and make sense of. But thinking in terms of the Pacific has helped me some.

Definitely some parallels.

Another thought experiment for any interested.  If you want to see a war were The Capt's definitions and concepts break down read World War Z by Max Brooks:

- No communication, negotiation or concept of sacrifice for zombies.

- No null or negative decision space as zombies cannot be put into dilemma, nor are their decisions meta-stable,

- All mass and attrition, manoeuvre is nearly impossible as zombies have no Center of Gravity beyond the horde itself.

- Technically this is not a war as it is not a social interaction, it is more of a pest infestation.

Well that was fun...back to Ukraine.

[dan/california]

we know anything else about this? Big deal if true. Mackay's heart is in the right place, but his entusiasm level can be a little high.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

+1

Mayor Yevgeniy Osipov, 18th Guard assault aviation regiment "Normandia-Neman" (Su-25SM), Chernigovka airfield, Far East of 303rd mixed aviation division of 11th AF and AD Army. Get lost on 4th of March in Chernihiv oblast.

   

 

[Battlefront.com]

I can not recommend following "Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer" Twitter account enough.  There's a lot of interesting posts every day including some original video uploads.

Today's haul of information includes they have retaken a couple of villages near Kherson, early retweet of Russian leadership arrests, specific report the head of the Black Sea Fleet (Admiral Igor Osipov) was amongst those arrested, footage of another destroyed Russian SPG (up north), evidence that Russians are reissuing bloody body armor, and this great video of a captured BMP-3:

 

[BFCElvis]

22 hours ago, amadeupname said:

So I guess the work on every CM title has just stopped so we can pretend we're defense analysts now? 

I have read everything in this thread from one crackhead schizoposting about crisis actors and ancient alien bullsh*t to several of you speculating about the possible deployments of WMD's and other such nonsense. 

Can we please get back to creating more content for the game? 

I appreciate your comments. Seriously. It is always very flattering to us when someone expresses passion over what we are creating. That said, since you've read the entire thread you are familiar with our desire to keep this thread on topic. @sburkehas directed you to a thread where you can find out what you're looking for and respect our wishes about this thread on topic.

We here at Battlefront have found that we can walk and chew gum at the same time. We are capable of participating in this thread (which we consider very important for both historic and game/simulation production reasons) and working on making our games. 

[Huba]

Just now, dan/california said:

we know anything else about this? Big deal if true. Mackay's heart is in the right place, but his entusiasm level can be a little high.

He's right more often than not though. I wonder if the expected Great Donbas Offensive could just fizzle before it even starts. There are various reports (not the least about Russian morale) that suggest that. It would be anticlimactic, but much better for the UA side for sure.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

we know anything else about this? Big deal if true. Mackay's heart is in the right place, but his entusiasm level can be a little high.

This was already several days ago, I've writen about this. But situatuion around Izium is very changable. Both sides is attacking and counter-attacking, seizeng and loosing the same territories, so mabe this is new wave

Edited April 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can not recommend following "Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer" Twitter account enough.  There's a lot of interesting posts every day including some original video uploads.

Today's haul of information includes they have retaken a couple of villages near Kherson, early retweet of Russian leadership arrests, specific report the head of the Black Sea Fleet (Admiral Igor Osipov) was amongst those arrested, footage of another destroyed Russian SPG (up north), evidence that Russians are reissuing bloody body armor, and this great video of a captured BMP-3:

 

I met Dr John Arquilla once, now there is a guy can see the future.  That right there is likely where we go from here.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

He's right more often than not though. I wonder if the expected Great Donbas Offensive could just fizzle before it even starts. There are various reports (not the least about Russian morale) that suggest that. It would be anticlimactic, but much better for the UA side for sure.

I don't think it's necessarily a good thing to forestall a big Russian offensive action.  For Ukraine to end things sooner rather than later it needs to land a crushing blow.  The easiest way to do that is to let the Russians come to them and smash them.  Using The_Capt's World War Z analogy, it's better to let the zombie heard move into a confined space and wipe them out than it is to go around the countryside picking them off one at a time.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Tu-154M of Russian Naval Forces arrived to Sevastopol. Probably a committee for investigation of Moskva incident. 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think it's necessarily a good thing to forestall a big Russian offensive action.  For Ukraine to end things sooner rather than later it needs to land a crushing blow.  The easiest way to do that is to let the Russians come to them and smash them.  Using The_Capt's World War Z analogy, it's better to let the zombie heard move into a confined space and wipe them out than it is to go around the countryside picking them off one at a time.

Sure, unless they just break under a wave of local counterattacks and ****ty morale, with effect being similar as in big offensive, but with less UA casualties. If they follow the example of forces from around Kiyv, that would be great.

Edit: on the other hand, maybe huge, indisputable defeat on the battlefield is what Russia really needs, instead of rotten compromise peace that would only prop the "knife in the back" narrative not unlike in interbellum Germany.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Welcome back. RQ-4 over the Balck Sea in first half of the day. Looks like it tracks Moskva

Edited April 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Probus]

My brother just told me the Russian MoD has announced the Moskva has sank while being towed in heavy seas.  Is that true?

Edited April 14, 2022 by Probus

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, Probus said:

My brother just told me the Russian MoD has announced the Moskva has sank while being towed in heavy seas.  Is that true?

Well its certainly all over twitter right now

 

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

BBC are reporting Russian state media has said the Moskva has sunk

Russian warship Moskva has sunk - state media https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61114843

MMM

Edited April 14, 2022 by Monty's Mighty Moustache

[The Steppenwulf]

Yup officially sunk: https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783626130.html

[dan/california]

 

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Tu-154M of Russian Naval Forces arrived to Sevastopol. Probably a committee for investigation of Moskva incident. 

They are going to need Scuba gear. Glory to Ukraine!