How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Excellent article in the Washington Post about Russia's problems dealing with the bodies of its soldiers.  The upshot is even when there is a body, they don't necessarily want them back.  Here's a quote from the article:

Quote

Ukraine has about 7,000 unclaimed Russian corpses in morgues and refrigerated rail cars, according to Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration. He said his government’s figure of 18,600 Russian dead was based on Ukrainian reports from the battlefield and intercepted Russian military communications.

Ukraine tried to return the bodies of 3,000 Russian service members on the third day of the war, he said. “They said, ‘We don’t believe in such quantities. We don’t have this number. We’re not ready to accept them.’ ” Ukraine proposed an exchange several times, he said, but “they won’t discuss this at all yet."

Let that sink in.  Taking the number at face value (and we have no evidence to doubt it), Ukraine not only killed at least 3000 soldiers in the first 3 days of the war, but they also recovered their bodies.  This underscores how absolutely abysmal the Russian attack was.  An attacker is expected to lose soldiers, but not lose their bodies!  That just goes to show how little terrain the Russians managed to fully control consistently in the first few days.

In any case, the fact is that Russia has to be careful about accepting the bodies because doing so confirms the number they are peddling to the Russian people is off by a very, very, very wide margin.  Much better to have control of the bodies themselves and send out death notices in small batches.

Not that they can hide this long term:

Quote

So Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs set up a website and Telegram channel where Russians can search photos of the dead and prisoners of war, or fill out an online form seeking information about family members.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F368826f%2F62505a9364253a7f342382a6%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F8%2F72%2F62505a9364253a7f342382a6

Steve

[The Steppenwulf]

13 minutes ago, Holien said:

I doubt it, more a distraction to help Johnson back home rather than to help Ukraine.

I hope the #ucking lack of visas to Ukrainian refugees was on the table, people in UK want to help but the Government is asking for paperwork even for cat's being brought into the UK. 

I am glad we have sent weapons but we could be doing more to help the refugees. 

Agreed! A visit straight out of the Churchillian play book. Johnson penned a book on Churchill before becoming PM and is pretty obsessed with the 'great war leader'. He thinks also that drawing similarities to Churchill with himself in the public mind will resonate and reverse the hitherto collapsing electoral support for him and his Govt.

EDIT: There is no doubt however that Ukraine needs a medium term plan about removing the blockade of Odesa. Ukraine's long term economic recovery cannot be realised without a military solution to this (in absence of its inclusion in a proposed negotiated settlement - which is likely a  long way off yet). I've been thinking about how this might be resolved but if Russian ships hold their positions and continue to threaten Ukraine's maritime activity, this perhaps can only be neutralised by supplying anti-ship equipped aircraft to Ukraine, or else arrival of US/NATO warships. Anyone? 

Edited April 9, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Aragorn2002]

38 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Boris Johnson paid a surprise visit to Kiev today.

I wonder if anti-ship missiles were among the topics discussed at that table?

Removed

Edited April 9, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Excellent article in the Washington Post about Russia's problems dealing with the bodies of its soldiers.  The upshot is even when there is a body, they don't necessarily want them back.  Here's a quote from the article:

Let that sink in.  Taking the number at face value (and we have no evidence to doubt it), Ukraine not only killed at least 3000 soldiers in the first 3 days of the war, but they also recovered their bodies.  This underscores how absolutely abysmal the Russian attack was.  An attacker is expected to lose soldiers, but not lose their bodies!  That just goes to show how little terrain the Russians managed to fully control consistently in the first few days.

In any case, the fact is that Russia has to be careful about accepting the bodies because doing so confirms the number they are peddling to the Russian people is off by a very, very, very wide margin.  Much better to have control of the bodies themselves and send out death notices in small batches.

Not that they can hide this long term:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F368826f%2F62505a9364253a7f342382a6%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F8%2F72%2F62505a9364253a7f342382a6

Steve

That is incredible. To discover your loved one is dead on the internet instead of from an army officier. 

Edited April 9, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

I am NOT a Boris Johnson fan, SO NOT a Boris Johnson fan. But credit must be given where credit is due. I am strongly of the opinion that the very large number of NLAWs that Britain shipped in the week or so before hostilities commenced had large effect on the outcome of this war so far. It gave the Ukrainians the critical mass of ATGMs to stop the Russians' attempt at a blind tank rush. The Russians have basically been searching desperately for a plan ever since. And Johnson has been 100% on additional support ever since. Johnson has certainly not been very good on Ukrainian refugees, but It isn't like the U.S. has been great either, and Biden was not previously locked into an extremely anti immigrant stance . In fact I need to write my congressman another nastygram on the subject. 

[Combatintman]

43 minutes ago, acrashb said:

The two key factors in the Taliban win are a) gross corruption in the Afghan government (perhaps reflecting societal issues) and, more critically, b) support from, AFAIK, every geographically neighbouring country (especially Pakistan). A tertiary, but tipping-point, factor would be the abrupt withdrawal of the occupying forces that buffered against the first two factors.

Many - more than 30K - Afghan security forces lost their lives defending an ideal (or making a living with a dangerous job, or both).  When their only effective support system abruptly left and their corrupt government fled, unsurprisingly most of the security forces just gave up.  What else could they do?

I suppose one could call that a political victory, as it wasn't decided on a battlefield.  So I guess I just made your point.  I wanted to adjust the narrative about sufficient occupying forces - the Afghan soldiers and police paid a high price to try to save their country and they should be acknowledged.

Err ... not quite - unless every geographical neighbouring country now means 'maybe 50% of the geographical neighbouring countries at varying times on a transactional basis.'  I could go on - I watched it fall apart from Kabul, where I am currently sitting, for the greater part of last year.  Anyway - thread drift ...

[The Steppenwulf]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

So Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs set up a website and Telegram channel where Russians can search photos of the dead and prisoners of war, or fill out an online form seeking information about family members.

Exactly the right way to handle it by drawing Russian public's attention to the deaths. I just hope the public information on the site explains, for the benefit of the families, 'the reason why your dead relative cannot be repatriated is because your Govt does not want your people to know they are dead.'  - There's plenty of propaganda mileage in this, helping to turn the dial of public opinion against Putin.

Edited April 9, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[sross112]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am NOT a Boris Johnson fan, SO NOT a Boris Johnson fan. But credit must be given where credit is due. I am strongly of the opinion that the very large number of NLAWs that Britain shipped in the week or so before hostilities commenced had large effect on the outcome of this war so far. It gave the Ukrainians the critical mass of ATGMs to stop the Russians' attempt at a blind tank rush. The Russians have basically been searching desperately for a plan ever since. And Johnson has been 100% on additional support ever since. Johnson has certainly not been very good on Ukrainian refugees, but It isn't like the U.S. has been great either, and Biden was not previously locked into an extremely anti immigrant stance . In fact I need to write my congressman another nastygram on the subject. 

When talking about the refugees, is it better to try to keep the majority of them in the neighboring countries and provide as much help and support as possible or take them away to the UK/US/Canada? Wouldn't the logistics of support and eventual repatriation be much easier if they are in Poland instead of Glasgow? These are actual questions as I have no idea and maybe someone can educate me on the situation, solutions and benefits of different approaches.

I mainly ask as I would think that the majority of the refugees would want to return to their homeland when the situation permits them to. I'm sure some would want to pop smoke and try their luck elsewhere, but with the Ukrainian patriotism we've seen I would think that most would want to stay close and return as soon as possible. Again, I may be totally wrong as I really don't know anything about that side of things, just looking at it from the way I think and that isn't always the same.

[The Steppenwulf]

48 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am NOT a Boris Johnson fan, SO NOT a Boris Johnson fan. But credit must be given where credit is due. I am strongly of the opinion that the very large number of NLAWs that Britain shipped in the week or so before hostilities commenced had large effect on the outcome of this war so far. It gave the Ukrainians the critical mass of ATGMs to stop the Russians' attempt at a blind tank rush. The Russians have basically been searching desperately for a plan ever since. And Johnson has been 100% on additional support ever since. Johnson has certainly not been very good on Ukrainian refugees, but It isn't like the U.S. has been great either, and Biden was not previously locked into an extremely anti immigrant stance . In fact I need to write my congressman another nastygram on the subject. 

Hmm well.... the only minister that has proved effective for the UK Govt (and instrumental with delivery of weapons systems) is Ben Wallace, Defence Secretary, very competent and ex military himself, which almost certainly has helped with his grasp, understanding and approach of the UK on these matters. If anyone deserves credit in this shambolic Govt it's him, and when the history books are written I think his performance will shine through only.

Edited April 9, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Combatintman]

2 minutes ago, sross112 said:

When talking about the refugees, is it better to try to keep the majority of them in the neighboring countries and provide as much help and support as possible or take them away to the UK/US/Canada? Wouldn't the logistics of support and eventual repatriation be much easier if they are in Poland instead of Glasgow? These are actual questions as I have no idea and maybe someone can educate me on the situation, solutions and benefits of different approaches.

I mainly ask as I would think that the majority of the refugees would want to return to their homeland when the situation permits them to. I'm sure some would want to pop smoke and try their luck elsewhere, but with the Ukrainian patriotism we've seen I would think that most would want to stay close and return as soon as possible. Again, I may be totally wrong as I really don't know anything about that side of things, just looking at it from the way I think and that isn't always the same.

It depends on the ability of the countries housing them.   Doctrine for non-combatant evacuation operations (NEO) emphasises moving people to 'a place of safety' which does not mean repatriating to the home country.  Now I appreciate we are not talking about a NEO here but the principle applies of moving to a nearby safe place rather than somewhere thousands of miles/kilometres away.  If Poland, Hungary etc have the resources to look after them and are suitably safe then they should be the preferred option due to proximity rather than moving them to the UK/US/Canada etc etc.

[Maquisard manqué]

5 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

 

Yo @DMS, you were saying something about the dehumanization of Russian soldiers?

Not sure this was posted yet:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61038811

Based on reputable, serious news outlets, it feels like every area, village, town of occupation has seen the Russian army live up to pretty much the worst that’s been said about it. Obvs the quoted link isn’t from such a source but it’s shocking (so yes until validated it could be propaganda- but the fact I now doubt it, why shouldn’t I given What else they’ve done, is most important - well to me anyway!).

At the risk of re-raising the bigger racist debate, but really to say I regret giving the benefit of the doubt, I can only see a small difference between this institutionalised violence, thuggery and carelessness for human life and what the Nazis did. Frankly I fear it might only take competence for the Russian army/state to replicate such systematisation.

@kraze, sorry. Pretty sure you’ve said as much.

I’m still (always) for a Marshall plan option but only for the sake of the future generations of Russians. This current lot appear largely poisoned, despite the protest attempts by some. This is helping me understand the frustration and bewilderment western soldiers & journalists (I.e. Gelhorn) felt when faced with the cynicism and denial of many Germans post 1944.

Edited April 9, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Boris Johnson paid a surprise visit to Kiev today.

I wonder if anti-ship missiles were among the topics discussed at that table?

Remember how everybody thought that Brexit was a terrible thing that was helped in no small part by russians?

Wonder how many russian FSB guys went to jail when putin realized UK can do whatever it wants with its NLAWs and sanctions without asking another 20 countries if it can.

[Maquisard manqué]

Just now, kraze said:

Remember how everybody thought that Brexit was a terrible thing that was helped in no small part by russians?

Wonder how many russian FSB guys went to jail when putin realized UK can do whatever it wants with its NLAWs and sanctions without asking another 20 countries if it can.

Don’t think Brexit has any influence on that. The Uk hasn’t felt the need to consult the Eu on most adventures.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, akd said:

128th Mountain Assault Brigade fighting in forest near Kreminna:

 

Doesn't look very professional.

[Holien]

36 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Boris Johnson paid a surprise visit to Kiev today.

I wonder if anti-ship missiles were among the topics discussed at that table?

OK

Maybe we will give Ukraine some ability to sink ships.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1512837866258419713

I hope pretty darned quick!

 

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

It depends on the ability of the countries housing them.   Doctrine for non-combatant evacuation operations (NEO) emphasises moving people to 'a place of safety' which does not mean repatriating to the home country.  Now I appreciate we are not talking about a NEO here but the principle applies of moving to a nearby safe place rather than somewhere thousands of miles/kilometres away.  If Poland, Hungary etc have the resources to look after them and are suitably safe then they should be the preferred option due to proximity rather than moving them to the UK/US/Canada etc etc.

The numbers that Poland, Moldova, and the other bordering countries have absorbed are just unbelievable. There can't be an empty spare bedroom anywhere in Eastern Europe. I really think the U.S. and Britain need to do a great deal more both to maintain political coherence in NATO, and just to spread the load around in a bearable way.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Don’t think Brexit has any influence on that. The Uk hasn’t felt the need to consult the Eu on most adventures.

Pretty sure UK would get stuck in some bureaucracy and heavy opposition from Germany, Hungary and Italy that they had to fight through before any NLAW would've landed in Ukraine.

They had to maneuver around half a Europe to land a plane with weapons here as it is, certainly would've wasted time maneuvering in other ways too.

[Vacillator]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Doesn't look very professional.

Looks more like a day at the paintball centre.  Thankfully no-one seemed to be returning fire.  Perhaps set up for the camera, who knows?

[DesertFox]

6 minutes ago, Holien said:

OK

Maybe we will give Ukraine some ability to sink ships.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1512837866258419713

I hope pretty darned quick!

 

Let´s hope so.

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, Vacillator said:

Looks more like a day at the paintball centre.  Thankfully no-one seemed to be returning fire.  Perhaps set up for the camera, who knows?

Yes, probably. Point is that we're all so emotional right now, that we accept everything at face value. Inevitable and understandable, but it's hard to keep a cool head in war.

[The Steppenwulf]

32 minutes ago, kraze said:

Remember how everybody thought that Brexit was a terrible thing that was helped in no small part by russians?

Wonder how many russian FSB guys went to jail when putin realized UK can do whatever it wants with its NLAWs and sanctions without asking another 20 countries if it can.

Some facts:

1. UK left the EU not NATO.
2. EU has 27 members.
3. NATO has 30 members.
4. The EU has no say on what weapons member states' supply Ukraine.  
    

Quote

 

Pretty sure UK would get stuck in some bureaucracy and heavy opposition from Germany, Hungary and Italy that they had to fight through before any NLAW would've landed in Ukraine.

They had to maneuver around half a Europe to land a plane with weapons here as it is, certainly would've wasted time maneuvering in other ways too.

 

Last fact:
     5. Increased bureaucracy for UK, that has created "friction" with moving goods around EU, is a direct consequence of Brexit agreement with EU. Friction would not exist without occurrence of Brexit.

Edited April 9, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

Looks more like a day at the paintball centre.  Thankfully no-one seemed to be returning fire.  Perhaps set up for the camera, who knows?

There was incoming fire when they were fighting much more carefully from behind a slope.  The latter part seemed to be clean-up, maybe stumbling on a few isolated Russians that were cut-off?

Edited April 9, 2022 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

7 minutes ago, Holien said:

OK

Maybe we will give Ukraine some ability to sink ships.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1512837866258419713

I hope pretty darned quick!

Time for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to get an invitation to meet Davy Jones!

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, akd said:

There was incoming fire when they were fighting much more carefully from behind a berm.  The latter part seemed to be clean-up, maybe stumbling on a few isolated Russians that were cut-off?

Fair points, and I mean no disrespect to anyone for their bravery in such situations.  For me paintballing is about as scary as I'd like to subject myself to, always makes me think of what it would be like with real bullets flying about.  In my first ever game I took a ball in the face when I thought I was safe behind a barricade.  Enough said.

[dan/california]

it is unrealistic to expect most Ukrainian forces to look like the U.S. Ranger battalion on an exhibition exercise. I am sure they would love 18 months to train up to that level, but they certainly didn't get it. It is also worth pointing out that the amount of social media a given Ukrainian unit puts out seems to be inversely proportional to its proximity to the Regular Army. So we a TON of video from the Territorial Defense units North of Kyiv, virtually none from the JFO around Donbas.

Edited April 9, 2022 by dan/california
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