How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, Saberwander said:

Regarding the war - honestly I think Russia lost the war after a week. When their initial plan failed they were in a losing situation given constraints they are fighting with. These constraints are obvious problem with issuing large scale mobilization and extremely low morale of the troops which do not understand why are they fighting.

I was expecting to see massive mobilization on Ukrainian side. Given the amount of weapons coming in I expected to see 500 000 or more soldiers in the field. I understand that in this age you need much more than just a grunt with a gun but if you outnumber the enemy 3:1 or 5:1 you can do a lot of damage, even as a infantry unit with anti tank weapons.

I am not sure if Ukraine is mobilizing as much as I expected. 

I expect a slow slugging match for a while and then steady gains for Ukraine until Putin declares victory and leaves for prewar borders of LDR/DNR. Question is would Ukraine accept that and would DNR/LNR collapse if they lose active Russian support.


BTW is there an update on Kherson front?

The only thing I would add about the fight in front of us in the E-SE:

- This is a "race to stalemate" for the Russians, and even possibly for the UA - but I would not be surprised them rolling on an overall strategic objective of "cleanse Russian forces from our land"...and from what we have seen in the North that ain't a crazy idea as of today.  So it will be interesting to see just how "all in" the Russians really are in this.  Putin is "all in while riding a bear shirtless" but your average Russian soldier may have other ideas.

- Russians are in much worse shape now than they were 6 weeks ago.  Nothing worse for moral than losing ground a lot of your people died for.  That and making up for the equipment, materiel and manpower losses is going to pull from way down the list of quality with no time for re-tooling or training.  So while the Russians have mass, even more concentrated now along fewer axis, it is even more brittle than it was in the initial invasion.  

- Russians still have not solved their operational pre-conditions problem.  Air Superiority has become a joke, right along with information or C4ISR.  And the Russians have to try and do logistics having lost over 2xCAA worth of logistical vehicles, while not yet having solved for long range PGMs leg-humping their LOCs to further distraction.

   I was not fully on board the Russian Collapse theory in the opening of this war - they did manage a withdrawal of sorts in the North.  However, time is really not on their side now.  A full Russian invasion force collapse is a lot more likely now that the Russian political level is insistent that they take a broken and battered Army and try to go back on the offensive with it.  And the best they have offered is some glue and tape over the busted parts.  The Ukrainian military machine is no doubt also battered but the rub here is "they won".  Their morale has to be high, and now very sharp with the atrocities uncovered, now that they have pushed the Russians well back in the north.  This means more volunteers, winning commanders, more veterans of success and likely enough western firepower to melt entire Russian formations.

  This will all come down to when Putin can go "Mission Accomplished" before his entire military falls apart...crazy.  If he is smart it will be this weekend but one thing I think we can say with confidence is that Putin and the Russian military machine has been a little short of "smart" in this war.

[Armorgunner]

53 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

All Info - S.3522 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

 

 

Isn´t that Iraeli Galils, and UH-1 Huey "Vietnam Helicopters" on that picture?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ruble robunds artiffically. Usual citizens can't buy USD officially. Only via black market - 210 RUB for 1 USD. Here is real exchange rate. 

Yes, this is the reality.  People (I mean journalists!) are confusing an index number with reality.  The pre-sanction Ruble exchange rate was in a full and open market with global demand determining the value.  The post-sanction Ruble is not.  Basically, it's akin to the old Soviet days when Moscow would set it's own exchange rate.  It didn't mean squat.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Armorgunner said:

Isn´t that Iraeli Galils, and UH-1 Huey "Vietnam Helicopters" on that picture?

I've been trying to figure that out too!  Only thing I came up with is a dated picture from Estonia.  After moving away from the G3 they used a domestically upgraded Galil.  They might be replacing it with something else now as they are acquiring new rifles, but I don't know what they are.

Steve

[TheVulture]

Russia has apparently "officially confirmed" that the explosion at the Belgorod arsenal on March 29th was due to 3 Tochka-U missiles from Ukraine, which injured 8 people and destroyed 21 vehicles.

IIRC That's the one where there's footage of two Ukrainian helicopters firing rockets in the attack, which probably tells you how reliable Russia's 'confirmation' is.

 

 

[Haiduk]

@The_Capt

Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba on the meeting of NATO countries ministers of defenses:

"I regret to say this, but this is true: the battle for Donbas will remind you WWII with large-scale operations, maneuvers, participation of thousands tanks, armored vehicles, planes, artillery. This will not be local operation, based on what we see from preparations of Russia to this. Russian has own plan, we have own. And outcome of this battle will be decided on the battlefield"

So, as I said recently, "light infanty" tactic on Donbas will be less useful. Here is more dense troops deployment, clear frontline, minefields, trenches, strongpoints, Russians will have more short and defended routes of supply. Here will be completely other war. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

IIRC That's the one where there's footage of two Ukrainian helicopters firing rockets in the attack, which probably tells you how reliable Russia's 'confirmation' is.

No, helicopters hit oil depot after this strike. Theese are different episodes. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this is the reality.  People (I mean journalists!) are confusing an index number with reality.  The pre-sanction Ruble exchange rate was in a full and open market with global demand determining the value.  The post-sanction Ruble is not.  Basically, it's akin to the old Soviet days when Moscow would set it's own exchange rate.  It didn't mean squat.

Steve

What the economists who aren't dazzled by the topline number are saying is that supporting the ruble now is going to make things far worse in terms of inflation and other economic damage later. As usual, Putin is robbing Pyotr to pay Pavel. 

[db_zero]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this is the reality.  People (I mean journalists!) are confusing an index number with reality.  The pre-sanction Ruble exchange rate was in a full and open market with global demand determining the value.  The post-sanction Ruble is not.  Basically, it's akin to the old Soviet days when Moscow would set it's own exchange rate.  It didn't mean squat.

Steve

That is true but people are still buying Russian energy and that money is going somewhere. China too sets its own exchange rate for the yuan. The Russian population has an older population that remembers living under the old Soviet Regime and the bad times of the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

I'm skeptical of economic sanctions. Iraq, Iran and North Korea have survived them.

Edited April 7, 2022 by db_zero

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been trying to figure that out too!  Only thing I came up with is a dated picture from Estonia.  After moving away from the G3 they used a domestically upgraded Galil.  They might be replacing it with something else now as they are acquiring new rifles, but I don't know what they are.

Steve

I think almost everybody wait for the US, to decide wich caliber to go with? 6,5? 6,8?

Sweden cant wait, as our AK-5 are so worn out. So We, together with Finland are going for a Finnish made, Sako assault rifle in 7.62x51. And caliber it down to the new 6,xx when its done. The Finns however, will go with the same rifle. But they may wait for the new caliber. As their current weapons, are not as wornout as ours. 

[billbindc]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-china-state-refiners-shun-new-russian-oil-trades-teapots-fly-under-2022-04-06/

Also, don't be fooled by current energy purchases. People in the shipping industry are saying that Sinopec and other refiners are getting extremely leery Russian cargoes. They are already planning to not reup contracts (see above) but also may drop current contracts due to difficult to square insurances issues. In other words, even the Chinese are going to untangle themselves from Russian gas/oil in the next month or so.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

No doubt about it, something is happening to Russian mass.  We do not know if it is the Russians getting in their own way or as a result of UA actions, maybe a combination of both.

Many thanks for taking the time to reply; I specifically tagged you and Bil because you (and Steve) have spent rather a lot of time mastering 1980 era Red Army tactical doctrine at this level, and AFAICT, the BTG is just a repackaging of this lineage.

...The core concept seems to be that by putting the BTG 'tank guy' in charge of his own mobile heavy guns and supporting assets, this formation has everything it needs to find AND fix AND kill targets far more quickly and accurately than just calling in the regimental or divisional arty, still less the old 'programmed a day ahead rolling storm of Katyushas' approach.

To me, the most visible breakdown seems to be coming in the 'fix' component of all that....

1.  The RA forward elements (almost invariably road columns) become seemingly frozen in place once in contact. They don't seem to be doing the immediate and aggressive 'move to flank' movements that age old Red Army doctrine mandates to locate and 'fix in place' the ambushing enemies for destruction. Based on the live action videos, as well as after action wreck photos, they just seem to fight and die in road column formation, trying and failing to outshoot the enemy in place.

2. But that also has to do with the UA not bothering with prepared positions (which may become liabilities, as we see in that clip above) or holding any specific ground, and simply engaging in a series of shoot-and-scoots with their fire teams or single tanks.  So it's like punching water... what does Ivan outflank, and what does he shell?

3. And as the BTG loses vehicles and men, it fairly quickly becomes unable to fight in the way it is supposed to even if the enemy were obliging enough to play along.

EDIT to add:  Is it possible this formation is too 'infanty poor' for the mission it is being asked to accomplish?  hence the overreliance on suppressive fires from the vehicles....

Edited April 7, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Many thanks for taking the time to reply; I specifically tagged you and Bil because you (and Steve) have spent rather a lot of time mastering 1980 era Red Army tactical doctrine at this level, and AFAICT, the BTG is just a repackaging of this lineage.

...The core concept seems to be that by putting the BTG 'tank guy' in charge of his own mobile heavy guns and supporting assets, this formation has everything it needs to find AND fix AND kill targets far more quickly and accurately than just calling in the regimental or divisional arty, still less the old 'programmed a day ahead rolling storm of Katyushas' approach.

To me, the most visible breakdown seems to be coming in the 'fix' component of all that....

1.  The RA forward elements (almost invariably road columns) become seemingly frozen in place once in contact. They don't seem to be doing the immediate and aggressive 'move to flank' movements that age old Red Army doctrine mandates to locate and 'fix in place' the ambushing enemies for destruction. Based on the live action videos, as well as after action wreck photos, they just seem to fight and die in road column formation, trying and failing to outshoot the enemy in place.

2. But that also has to do with the UA not bothering with prepared positions (which may become liabilities, as we see in that clip above) or holding any specific ground, and simply engaging in a series of shoot-and-scoots with their fire teams or single tanks.  So it's like punching water... what does Ivan outflank, and what does he shell?

3. And as the BTG loses vehicles and men, it fairly quickly becomes unable to fight in the way it is supposed to even if the enemy were obliging enough to play along.

This tracks.  I would add that I also think there is an issue with FIND.  By the time the Russians can find Ukrainian defenders they have already been hit, which has to be doing something to their overall approach.

You are correct, this is not Soviet doctrine in the least.  But the Russians never set up for the Soviet fight with massive overmatch at the operational level either.  Nor do they have the depth to pull off Soviet era MRR type actions.  My guess (again a guess) is that political constraints kept the force sizes down - one does not try to invade a country the size of France with 200k troops...it simply is not done.  Now why the Russians could not even do this locally is also interesting and here I am leaning toward soft factors like moral.  

Edited April 7, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

That is true but people are still buying Russian energy and that money is going somewhere.

Sure, but that's a different thing completely.  The Ruble could be a trillion per USD or 1:1.  Doesn't matter because the contracts for Russian energy are not in Rubles.  And since very few goods are being exchanged between Russia and the world, in any currency, the exchange rate is not important.  Prior to sanctions it was.

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

China too sets its own exchange rate for the yuan.

Correct, but they are fully engaged in the world market so if they get the value out of whack with what the world views as its value, they'll be in trouble.

Analogy...

Let's say that Battlefront starts selling its games in BFC Bucks.  We set the exchange rate so that the prices on our website are roughly equivalent to their current USD value.  You might think we're daft, but in terms of value you'd be OK with the exchange.

Then we decide to change it so the USD equivalent is now 25% more than what you think the price of the game should be.  You can't stop me from setting the rate, but you can stop buying our games or buying less of them.  Therefore, we have an incentive to keep the exchange rate at about what you think it should be.  For paying things, we are going to be asked to pay in USD, but we might find someone willing to take BFC Bucks if they think they have a value that is the same s our exchange rate, so we have an incentive to keep the exchange rate reasonable in the view of others.  This is the Chinese model.

Then one day BFC Bucks is sanctioned.  Now you aren't buying our games at all and the bills we have to pay are in USD.  Nobody cares what our exchange rate is because nobody wants to use it.  This is the Russian model.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now whether the Ukrainians will invade Russia and burn the Kremlin before the ceasefire is still in question. 

LOL Sorry that made me laugh.

Interestingly I was going to suggest looking up why the white house is called that because I believed the propaganda I was brought up with: that the US government painted it white to cover the burn marks from the British sacking of Washington. Instead I learned that the white wash was always part of the construction and was to help seal the porous stone to protect it from the freeze thaw cycle. Also it was often refereed to as the white house long before the war of 1812 even. Mind you I'm sure after the fires it did need a new coat of white paint but that's very different from painting it white because of the fire.

Sorry for the off topic side track but it is an interesting bit of how propaganda sinks in to a culture. Well it was to me.

[Haiduk]

T-90A also can throw a turret

 

[The_Capt]

Just now, Haiduk said:

T-90A also can throw a turret

 

I gotta say that Russian tank losses seem to be either abandoned or look like this, not much middle ground.  I am not sure which weapon systems are causing these catastrophic kills but this cannot be good for collective crew morale.  Now replacements are being pushed into service with tales of all this, going to make them very nervous.

[db_zero]

24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-china-state-refiners-shun-new-russian-oil-trades-teapots-fly-under-2022-04-06/

Also, don't be fooled by current energy purchases. People in the shipping industry are saying that Sinopec and other refiners are getting extremely leery Russian cargoes. They are already planning to not reup contracts (see above) but also may drop current contracts due to difficult to square insurances issues. In other words, even the Chinese are going to untangle themselves from Russian gas/oil in the next month or so.

 

I'm aware of this. China would have a hard time getting more Russian energy anyway, not only because of shipping insurance rates, but also because of a lack of facilities that can handle supertankers. It would have to be loaded on smaller vessels then off loaded to supertankers at another port so really its not very feasible and from what I've heard the existing rail-line between Russia and China is already running at full capacity.

Its Europe that's buying Russian energy.

Right now energy is already stretched and there is no excess supply. Oil and natural gas prices are already at high levels. The US is releasing oil from the strategic reserve and Europe is probably going to do the same.

If Europe stopped buying Russian energy and started buying on the open markets prices would skyrocket even more.

Edited April 7, 2022 by db_zero

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

T-90A also can throw a turret

Yep that autoloader magazine was a genius invention by the russkies...

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt

Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba on the meeting of NATO countries ministers of defenses:

"I regret to say this, but this is true: the battle for Donbas will remind you WWII with large-scale operations, maneuvers, participation of thousands tanks, armored vehicles, planes, artillery. This will not be local operation, based on what we see from preparations of Russia to this. Russian has own plan, we have own. And outcome of this battle will be decided on the battlefield"

So, as I said recently, "light infanty" tactic on Donbas will be less useful. Here is more dense troops deployment, clear frontline, minefields, trenches, strongpoints, Russians will have more short and defended routes of supply. Here will be completely other war. 

Ok.  Well mass versus mass may be the order of the day.  I am not sure if this is the best course of action as hybrid has been very successful but commanders on the ground understand better.  Maybe UA is looking for that decisive operational battle that they can definitively win to trigger a broader Russian collapse. 

All that Russian mass is still going to be vulnerable 50km from their start line.  I guess it may come down to "how much mass" as there is a horizon above which hybrid cannot stop?

Or the political guy at NATO is making a play for much bigger toys?

[Armorgunner]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep that autoloader magazine was a genius invention by the russkies...

And when they reconstructed it, with the ammo laying down, instead of standig up. To be a smaller target for HEAT, they become a much larger target for top attack missiles 

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only thing I would add about the fight in front of us in the E-SE:

- This is a "race to stalemate" for the Russians, and even possibly for the UA - ...

- Russians are in much worse shape now than they were 6 weeks ago.  ...

- Russians still have not solved their operational pre-conditions problem.  ...

And yet, the ball is in Russia's court.  Aiming for a stalemate won't work because Ukraine is not going to give them breathing room.  The battlefield, therefore, will remain quite active and ground will change hands.  Might be slow at first, but as Ukrainian reserves come into the fight it won't stay that way.

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

   I was not fully on board the Russian Collapse theory in the opening of this war - they did manage a withdrawal of sorts in the North.

And that saved them from collapse.  Had they stayed there they would have lost their northern force, which would risk a wider collapse.

This is why I keep reminding people that two weeks into the war I said the preconditions for a collapse were in play.  Russia managed to delay the inevitable for a while by feeding more troops into the meat grinder, but when they ran out AND hadn't made any progress AND Ukraine was getting ready to cut them off... they had a choice.  Withdraw and fight another day or die in place and potentially lose everything.

For the first time in this stupid war, Russia assessed reality and made the sensible choice.  However, all they managed to do was delay their reckoning.  Which is...

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However, time is really not on their side now.  A full Russian invasion force collapse is a lot more likely now that the Russian political level is insistent that they take a broken and battered Army and try to go back on the offensive with it. 

By pulling their battered forces out of the north they avoided collapse there.  By reinforcing their new main effort with the remains of the northern force they have, on paper, produced a more potent threat to the Ukrainian lines.  If the offensive around the Donbas fails then it is collapse time.  Russia has no more rabbits in the hat to pull out.  They can't do a Kiev type pull back a second time and survive.

OK, so let's say the Donbas offensive succeeds in getting the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk, eliminating a large amount of Ukrainian forces in the process.  Then what?  They declare "Mission Accomplished" and demand that Ukraine kneel before them and give up all the land Russia occupies including the land bridge for Crimea.  Who thinks Ukraine is going to agree to that?  I don't.

The war will then continue.  Ukraine will have to lick its wounds before it can cause Russia major trouble, but maybe not as long as people think.  If Russia were to pull off a victory around Donbas, how strong do you think it's remaining forces will be?  Weaker than they are now by far most likely.  Their ability to withstand counter attacks will not be great, which will put Russia at risk of collapse again.  So they will either have to withdraw or face collapse.

All of these scenarios result in Russia losing provided Ukraine keep fighting.  Since they don't seem to be interested in slavery, I see Ukraine knocking Russia out.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- How did they manage information overload?  In the west data overload is a big issue.  As @Hapless notes it can paralyze an OODA loop by over saturation leading to longer orientation times. The UA, on the surface, looks like it has gotten around this...how?  My guess (and it is a guess) is that by adopting a hybrid C2 approach they are relying a lot on self synchronization at a micro level.  Info sharing is not being collected into a giant cloud but is instead in a whole host of little clouds all over the battlefield.  Peer to peer tactical units and groups are sharing to synchronize themselves...a lot of the anecdotal stories shared by @Haiduk seem to point to this.  In western experience this akin to the action of the airborne forces in Normandy, they did not wait for centralized orders, they simply ad hoc re-grouped and "went out to make trouble".  So this is not new, but what is new is the level and resolution of that information.

I was wondering that too - no really - I was :-). Probably not in as sophisticated a way as @The_Capt but we have heard that the US is sharing intel and it sure seems like that is a factor helping the Ukrainians but how are they managing to get that info out to the guys doing the dirty work? How have the UA managed to keep its command structure up and running and information flowing so well?

I like @The_Capt's guess but even that doesn't show how US intel is getting out there. Is it a myth that it's helping on the low level of individual action? Is the US side distributing info directly to lower levels as part of a decentralized system? I wonder.

I was listening to The Current yesterday (https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-63/clip/15904523 ) where they interviewed a manager of a radio station. He evacuated from Kiyv and reported for service. They asked him about what he used to do and suggested he setup a radio station instead of taking up arms. So, he and his staff have created a make shift studio and set out to play some music, give some news and ask for supplies and information. He gave a simple example of a military command post that was in need of a printer - call went out over the radio and within a few hours they had three.

It really seems a decentralized take action on your own initiative with some basic information sharing is functioning as part of this whole system the UA has created.

[billbindc]

"Reconstituting"

[Bil Hardenberger]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

EDIT to add:  Is it possible this formation is too 'infanty poor' for the mission it is being asked to accomplish?  hence the overreliance on suppressive fires from the vehicles....

Sorry I haven't been more of a part of this conversation.. i have a lot of thoughts about the BTG... but this part right here... yes I think that is one of the two huge failings of the BTG concept and is a big part of why we aren't seeing a more robust march security.. the other huge failing is the BTG has a poor logistics train, it was sacrificed in favor of other priorities.