How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BletchleyGeek]

The Guardian catching up with Aerorozvidka 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

Some interesting takeaway points from the article:

Quote

The Aerorozvidka unit also claims to have helped defeat a Russian airborne attack on Hostomel airport, just north-west of Kyiv, in the first day of the war, using drones to locate, target and shell about 200 Russian paratroopers concealed at one end of the airfield.

Quote

The unit was started by young university-educated Ukrainians who had been part of the 2014 Maidan uprising and volunteered to use their technical skills in the resistance against the first Russian invasion in Crimea and the Donbas region. Its founder, Volodymyr Kochetkov-Sukach, was an investment banker who was killed in action in 2015 in Donbas – a reminder of the high risks involved. 

Quote

In its early days, the unit used commercial surveillance drones, but its team of engineers, software designers and drone enthusiasts later developed their own designs.

Quote

a molecular biologist in Cambridge, is also helping the effort, drawing on his experience as a conscript in the German army.

“I was in an artillery reconnaissance unit myself, so I immediately realised the outsized impact that Aerorozvidka has. They effectively give eyes to their artillery,”

So:

- Completely DIY, no idea how they link up with artillery (maybe over Watsapp?). If the war effort around Kyiv and Chernihiv is so DIY - very much like the opening stages of the Spanish Civil War, with the Republican forces being militias organised in "columns" endorsed by parties, trade unions or civic associations - then one possible reason for the counterattacks NW of Kyiv to be developing slowly may be the inability to coordinate offensive operations.

- The Ukrainian army doesn't support these initiatives very much or at all. Which leads me to think that perhaps, just perhaps, they are as surprised to have stopped cold the Russian Federation war machine as many people is. Like perhaps @The_Capt should write a letter to the Ukrainian general staff collating his thoughts, when they are less busy with the fighting in the East (where I think the "command capacity" of the Ukrainian army is being applied).

[TheVulture]

More evidence in support of the idea that while Russia is abandoning its attack around Sumy to focus on the south / east of Ukraine, it is still keeping the thrust against Kyiv from the north active.

 

 

[Fernando]

47 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

- Completely DIY, no idea how they link up with artillery (maybe over Watsapp?). If the war effort around Kyiv and Chernihiv is so DIY - very much like the opening stages of the Spanish Civil War, with the Republican forces being militias organised in "columns" endorsed by parties, trade unions or civic associations - then one possible reason for the counterattacks NW of Kyiv to be developing slowly may be the inability to coordinate offensive operations.

It is a not too well known fact that the Republican columns at the beginning of the Spanish Civil War were not composed solely of militias. In reality, normally half of the troops were regular soldiers (conscripts) or security forces (Guardia Civil, Guardia de Asalto and Carabineros) and most of the commanding officers were regular army senior officers. About half of the peninsular army remained faithful to the government of the Republic and many of its senior officers remained loyal. The problem with the republican columns was that most of the militia forces that made up the columns were not trained. and they often did not obey their regular army commanders whom they did not trust.

On the other hand, the nationalist forces, which also had numerous militias, did obey their military commanders. Together with the Army of Africa, the best organized and most veteran force of the entire Spanish army, it was the greatest advantage of the nationalists against the Republicans.

In short, militias can be useful but only if they are embedded in larger regular units and under direct military command.

[LongLeftFlank]

53 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

- Completely DIY, no idea how they link up with artillery (maybe over Watsapp?).

- The Ukrainian army doesn't support these initiatives very much or at all.... Like perhaps @The_Capt should write a letter to the Ukrainian general staff...

'Crowdsourced warfare' sure enough!

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

13th time's the charm!

Indeed this is just regular shelling of Chornobaivka area. Only four times were a confirmations of hits on significznt amount of enemy vehicles, but yes - Cornobaivka already became a meme

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Completely DIY, no idea how they link up with artillery (maybe over Watsapp?).

Of course, no. There are several battlespace information systems created by the same volunteer design groups in cooperation with military since 2015 (Arta+, GISArta, Kropyva etc), so all drones, using by our troops are integrated in one of these systems. Alas, to this time all theese systems didn't integrate in single one, except SOF and Navy, which use information system Delta, having full compatibility with the same NATO systems.

Quote

The Ukrainian army doesn't support these initiatives very much or at all.

They support,but such units like Aerorozvidka want to be more independent, when Army command wants to fully subordinate them into own structures.   

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Next Stugna-P launch

 

[Haiduk]

24th of March our General Staff claimed Russian jet was shot down near Izium, Kharkiv oblast. Now we have a video of wreckage and captured pilot. 

This is lt.colonel Sergei Kosik, 14th Fighter aviation regiment, Kursk airfield. He says he had a previous task on 13th of March and received objectives just by phone from regimental senior navigator like digits of coordinates. Twitter message says that Su-35 was shot down, but indeed this regiment armed with Su-30SM. Probably the second pilot is not found yet or dead.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

2 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

The Guardian catching up with Aerorozvidka 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/28/the-drone-operators-who-halted-the-russian-armoured-vehicles-heading-for-kyiv

Some interesting takeaway points from the article:

So:

- Completely DIY, no idea how they link up with artillery (maybe over Watsapp?). If the war effort around Kyiv and Chernihiv is so DIY - very much like the opening stages of the Spanish Civil War, with the Republican forces being militias organised in "columns" endorsed by parties, trade unions or civic associations - then one possible reason for the counterattacks NW of Kyiv to be developing slowly may be the inability to coordinate offensive operations.

- The Ukrainian army doesn't support these initiatives very much or at all. Which leads me to think that perhaps, just perhaps, they are as surprised to have stopped cold the Russian Federation war machine as many people is. Like perhaps @The_Capt should write a letter to the Ukrainian general staff collating his thoughts, when they are less busy with the fighting in the East (where I think the "command capacity" of the Ukrainian army is being applied).

Aerorozvidka stuff has been long integrated with the army.

Nobody is using common apps

The DIY drone is Leleka, it's quite fine, a lot of arty footage you see is filmed by it. Over 300 such drones are used by the army.

One of the reasons counter-offensive may be "slow" is because our army is about keeping losses as low as possible - while russians simply human wave our positions again and again since they don't care about the losses.

Which is why they already suffered more casualties in one month here than in all 1.5 years of the first war in Chechnya.

Edited March 28, 2022 by kraze

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, Fernando said:

In reality, normally half of the troops were regular soldiers (conscripts) or security forces (Guardia Civil, Guardia de Asalto and Carabineros) and most of the commanding officers were regular army senior officers.

Perdona, pero eso que el 50% de la tropa de las columnas milicianas fueran  policias, o fuerzas de seguridad - de forma uniforme por todo el territorio bajo control Republicano, desde Asturias a Catalunya pasando por Malaga, no se de donde lo sacas. Que habian tanto tropa como fuerzas de seguridad que unieron a las columnas de la CNT/FAI o el POUM esta bien documentado. Pero que fuese el 50%...

Si no recuerdo mal el Estado Mayor del Ejercito Popular no se establecio hasta el final de 1936... Ni de broma en Agosto  de 1936. Asi que no me vengas con que habia uno o dos ex-capitanes de la Guardia Civil al mando de una columna... porque eso era un plus si quieres, y para organizar un contra-ataque no sirve de mucho. Como los hechos historicos demuestran, ya que la primera contraofensiva eficaz de las fuerzas de la Republica fue en Guadalajara en Marzo de 1937, una vez que la fase inicial de caos y DIY transiciono a una estructura mas estable, que no necesariamente mas eficaz politicamente.

Si hay investigacion reciente que demuestra lo que tu propones, con ejemplos claros en sitios tan dispares como Catalunya o Malaga, por favor, o lo enlazas o te retractas. Me sorprende no haberme enterado de esto, ya que basicamente tira por el suelo bastante investigacion que a lo mejor no es tan reciente (empezando con el trabajo de Hugh Thomas), y sigo en contacto con mucha gente en el campo de la historia militar en el homeland.

------------------------------

I am sorry, but that "usually half of the troops were regular soldiers" is a statement which is demonstrably false, if it is referring to the whole of the territory under control of the diverse factions(?) supporting - or rather, opposing those wanting to topple  the Spanish government in July to September 1936. 

I skip the middle paragraph, use Google Translate  But the gist of my comment is that without professional staff work, a military force has a difficult time pulling out a meaningful operational result (regardless of the esprit-de-corps or whatever martial qualities you can assign to each individual soldier).

If there is recent research, like 2000s research, that uncovers evidence of what you are stating, with clear examples in places as distant and diverse in conditions as say, Catalunya or Malaga, either you provide a link to that research, or please, retract from such a statement. I am surprised to have not learnt about this, as it contradicts heaps of existing literature on the topic (starting with the classic work by Hugh Thomas), and I am still in close contact with a lot friends in the homeland who are military history nerds.

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Of course, no. There are several battlespace information systems created by the same volunteer design groups in cooperation with military since 2015 (Arta+, GISArta, Kropyva etc), so all drones, using by our troops are integrated in one of these systems. Alas, to this time all theese systems didn't integrate in single one, except SOF and Navy, which use information system Delta, having full compatibility with the same NATO systems.

Thanks for that @Haiduk - so what about the statement in the article about this unit being disbanded in 2019? Could you offer some perspective of that? Was that a result of the result of the general election in 2019? 

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[BletchleyGeek]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

Aerorozvidka stuff has been long integrated with the army.

Nobody is using common apps

The DIY drone is Leleka, it's quite fine, a lot of arty footage you see is filmed by it. Over 300 such drones are used by the army.

One of the reasons counter-offensive may be "slow" is because our army is about keeping losses as low as possible - while russians simply human wave our positions again and again since they don't care about the losses.

Which is why they already suffered more casualties in one month here than in all 1.5 years of the first war in Chechnya.

So article is BS?

Maybe my comment rubbed you wrongly, but the facts are that the Russian advance culminated weeks ago at least (according to the open source maps) and signs of a counterattack in NW Kyiv have been turning up since at least one week ago. So, I think it is "slow". Whether that is by design, or because of friction, I don't know.

Edited March 28, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

so what about the statement in the article about this unit being disbanded in 2019?

I answered in second part of own post about withstanding between Army Comamnd and Aerorozvidka chiefs. Yes, partilly this was because new chiefs came to Army control. Aerorozvidla was disbanded like a unit, but specialists were integrated in army structures. Looks like since a war began they are acting agian under own old "brand"

[BletchleyGeek]

Just now, Haiduk said:

I answered in second part of own post about withstanding between Army Comamnd and Aerorozvidka chiefs. Yes, partilly this was because new chiefs came to Army control. Aerorozvidla was disbanded like a unit, but specialists were integrated in army structures. Looks like since a war began they are acting agian under own old "brand"

Thanks for the efforts to break through the language barrier @Haiduk, it is much appreciated.

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

The DIY drone is Leleka

Leleka-100 is not DIY this is DeVIRO company development, adopted for Army. DIY are "polyphoam" drones of Kasyanov in 2014-2016 %) 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Perdona, pero eso que el 50% de la tropa de las columnas milicianas fueran  policias, o fuerzas de seguridad - de forma uniforme por todo el territorio bajo control Republicano, desde Asturias a Catalunya pasando por Malaga, no se de donde lo sacas. Que habian tanto tropa como fuerzas de seguridad que unieron a las columnas de la CNT/FAI o el POUM esta bien documentado. Pero que fuese el 50%...

Si no recuerdo mal el Estado Mayor del Ejercito Popular no se establecio hasta el final de 1936... Ni de broma en Agosto  de 1936. Asi que no me vengas con que habia uno o dos ex-capitanes de la Guardia Civil al mando de una columna... porque eso era un plus si quieres, y para organizar un contra-ataque no sirve de mucho. Como los hechos historicos demuestran, ya que la primera contraofensiva eficaz de las fuerzas de la Republica fue en Guadalajara en Marzo de 1937, una vez que la fase inicial de caos y DIY transiciono a una estructura mas estable, que no necesariamente mas eficaz politicamente.

Si hay investigacion reciente que demuestra lo que tu propones, con ejemplos claros en sitios tan dispares como Catalunya o Malaga, por favor, o lo enlazas o te retractas. Me sorprende no haberme enterado de esto, ya que basicamente tira por el suelo bastante investigacion que a lo mejor no es tan reciente (empezando con el trabajo de Hugh Thomas), y sigo en contacto con mucha gente en el campo de la historia militar en el homeland.

------------------------------

I am sorry, but that "usually half of the troops were regular soldiers" is a statement which is demonstrably false, if it is referring to the whole of the territory under control of the diverse factions(?) supporting - or rather, opposing the  the Spanish government in July to September 1936. 

I skip the middle paragraph, use Google Translate  But the gist of my comment is that without professional staff work, a military force has a difficult time pulling out a meaningful operational result (regardless of the esprit-de-corps or whatever martial qualities you can assign to each individual soldier).

If there is recent research, like 2000s research, that uncovers evidence of what you are stating, with clear examples in places as distant and diverse in conditions as say, Catalunya or Malaga, either you provide a link to that research, or please, retract from such a statement. I am surprised to have not learnt about this, as it contradicts heaps of existing literature on the topic (starting with the classic work by Hugh Thomas), and I am still in close contact with a lot friends in the homeland who are military history nerds.

Thanks for that @Haiduk - so what about the statement in the article about this unit being disbanded in 2019? Could you offer some perspective of that? Was that a result of the result of the general election in 2019? 

 

La fuente es la excelente obra en cuatro volumenes "Historia del Ejército Popular de la República" de Salas Larrazabal, que te aconsejo revisar porque elimina muchos mitos sobre el asunto. Sigue de manera muy precisa todo el proceso de organización que dió lugar al Ejército Popular. La mayoría de las columans republicanas al comienzo d ela guerra estaban bajo mando militar, y no de capitanes sino de comandantes, coroneles, e incluso algún general. Otra cosa es que las fuerzas milicianas aceptaran las ordenes de mandos militares profesionales de los cuales desconfiaban. Por ello se retiraban o desplegaban cuando y como querían, a pesar d elo que el mando militar ordenara, y en algún caso hasta lo fusilaron.

En el caso del ejército Popular, muchos oficiales superiores siguieron con la República. La organización militar republicana fue Muy superior a la nacionalista. Mientras las fuerzas de Franco luchaban aún encuadradas en columnas y algunas superdivisiones, las fuerzas republicanas ya habían adoptado una organización moderna y eficiente con brigadas mixtas, divisiones, cuerpos de ejército y ejercitos. Eso fue producto de oficiales profesionalers con experiencia en Estado Mayor y que estaban al servicio del a República.

https://www.amazon.es/Historia-del-Ejército-Popular-República/dp/8497344650

--------

The source is the excellent work in four volumes "History of the Popular Army of the Republic" by Salas Larrazabal, which I advise you to review because it eliminates many myths on the subject. It follows very precisely the entire organizational process that gave rise to the People's Army of the Republic. Most of the republican columns at the beginning of the war were under military command, and most of the time they were not captains but lt. colonels, colonels, and even a few generals. It doesn't mean that the militia forces accepted the orders of professional military commanders whom they distrusted. That is why they withdrew or deployed when and how they wanted, despite what the military command ordered, and in some cases they even shot their commanders.

In the case of the People's Army, many senior officers remained loyal to the Republic, more than we usually think. The facts is that the Republican military organization was far superior to the Nationalist one. While Franco's forces were still fighting in columns and some superdivisions, the Republican forces had already adopted a modern and efficient organization with mixed brigades, divisions, army corps and armies. That was the product of professional officers with experience in the General Staff who were at the service of the Republic. 

 

Edited March 28, 2022 by Fernando

[akd]

Guess who is now going on western TV and asking for sanctions relief?

 

[ASL Veteran]

20 minutes ago, akd said:

Guess who is now going on western TV and asking for sanctions relief?

 

Geez, I wonder why she would be changing her tune now? 

[Haiduk]

Russian armed pick-ups. Location is unknown. I don't know who it can be - Kadyrov's troops, Vagner PMC?

 

[BeondTheGrave]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

No NATO and neutrality are on the table provided they are secured by other nations that have the ability to stand up to Russia.

Depending on the phrasing here this is a funny compromise. Neutrality secured by other nations that can stand up to Russia? So....... The United States?

[riptides]

18 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Depending on the phrasing here this is a funny compromise. Neutrality secured by other nations that can stand up to Russia? So....... The United States?

China.

[kraze]

(She now edited the post at her IG page and disabled comments for obvious reasons)

So in case you still care - a predictable continuation of that psyop, dated yesterday.

"Russophobia is unacceptable. Russians shouldn't be collectively responsible for events in Ukraine. Only Putin is responsible.

Live at "Che Tempo che fa" (analog of our Urgant) at Italian RAI TV channel against western sanctions. Common people are suffering from them. My disabled mom can't buy medications she needs. My daughter can't pay for dinner at school with her card. We have no sugar in shops, we are running out of cooking oil and hygienic items.

it's unacceptable to kick out russian students out of international universities and forbid concerts of russian musicians and artists. Only culture can unite us in these daring times".

You tell them girl. You are not responsible in particular, being a state propagandist. So time to lift those sanctions and let russians kill Ukrainians in peace.

Bonus - turns out her husband works at Russia Today as well.

Edited March 28, 2022 by kraze

[DesertFox]

Nice! Seems like sanktions actually work.

[Falaise]

57 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Depending on the phrasing here this is a funny compromise. Neutrality secured by other nations that can stand up to Russia? So....... The United States?

l'ukraine !

[Falaise]

mistake, I had only read that "nation standing up to Russia"

[DesertFox]