How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Reminds me of my younger days and thought of how the Third Reich could have won against the Soviet Union.  Many thoughts, obviously, but the primary one was to not treat the locals with contempt and violence.  Harnessing them to help in the fight against the rest of the Soviet Union could have worked.  After I became better educated about how the world works I understood that option was not available to a bunch of violent, racist, narcissists.  The very thought that they needed the help of Slavs, not to mention treating them as Human beings, never occurred to them.

Put another way, the reasons the Third Reich failed were the same reasons why it existed in the first place.  The two can not be separated.

Steve

Yeah, the entire strategy was to take the land and banish/enslave/murder all the people there.  Kinda hard to go backwards and say "if they just would've...." about things that were completely opposite of the war aims in the first place.  This was a war of conquest, with all the old school meanings of that -- resource extraction, colonization, slavery, murder-as-desired/required.  Germany did later recruit dissaffected slavs quite heavily, but that was based on necessities of Plan A failing so very badly.

[Vet 0369]

20 hours ago, akd said:

Mobilization continues in Crimea:

 

Look at the trees in the picture on the right. Do the trees in Chrimea already have leaves?

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Rinaldi said:

I used to think Tom Clancy was schlock and hokum, enjoyable, but schlock and hokum nevertheless. 

Now I'm thinking the man, God rest his soul, was on to something with his plot device in RSR where the KGB "present the best case scenario of an invasion" to the Kremlin in order to score some political points. I would love to have heard the intel briefings given to Putin throughout February. Or perhaps Putin was more like MacArthur, and just ignored what his intelligence types told him. 

Now there is a quality post.  I guess you have more tricks than just amazing AARs.  Once one isolates and surrounds w syncophants, who knows what he was being told. 

The news today that he had paid coup-runners in UKR was interesting.  he thought he'd topple from both inside and outside.  Send army across border, take all the big airfields and use them to quickly get forces into place, and then trigger coup plotters.

I recently re-read Red Storm Rising.  Sooooooo fun.  Though I think Larry Bond did a lot of the work on this as Clancy's co-author.  Yeah, they deluded themselves into "this is our only option and is impossible to fail".

[Commanderski]

10 minutes ago, Rinaldi said:

. I would love to have heard the intel briefings given to Putin throughout February. Or perhaps Putin was more like MacArthur, and just ignored what his intelligence types told him. 

His intel briefings probably told him what he wanted to hear and wasn't based on reality. 

[Harmon Rabb]

11 minutes ago, Rinaldi said:

I used to think Tom Clancy was schlock and hokum, enjoyable, but schlock and hokum nevertheless. 

Now I'm thinking the man, God rest his soul, was on to something with his plot device in RSR where the KGB "present the best case scenario of an invasion" to the Kremlin in order to score some political points. I would love to have heard the intel briefings given to Putin throughout February. Or perhaps Putin was more like MacArthur, and just ignored what his intelligence types told him. 

 

Here's a more recent Tom Clancy book with a plot you may find interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Command_Authority

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Now there is a quality post.  I guess you have more tricks than just amazing AARs.  Once one isolates and surrounds w syncophants, who knows what he was being told. 

The news today that he had paid coup-runners in UKR was interesting.  he thought he'd topple from both inside and outside.  Send army across border, take all the big airfields and use them to quickly get forces into place, and then trigger coup plotters.

I recently re-read Red Storm Rising.  Sooooooo fun.  Though I think Larry Bond did a lot of the work on this as Clancy's co-author.  Yeah, they deluded themselves into "this is our only option and is impossible to fail".

I think the thing about the FSB believing they already owned the Ukrainian Government explains a LOT,  maybe everything, about this war. First and foremost since the FSB believed it, Western intelligence agencies that seem too practically OWN Russian communications believed it. This was a BIG part of the prewar Western Government /media blob opinion that Ukraine would fall in a day. It appears to have been one of the more successful double agent operations in history. It is comparable to the British owning more or less every single German spy on the island from 1940 on, and being able to present a coherent but wrong picture to the Germans at will.  

Here is the crazy part, I think the success of this double blind led to the war. Putin thought success was guaranteed. Someone somewhere disregarded what I assume were repeated communications from the Ukrainians that the KGB was full of s$%%^#. The west believed Putin was right. NATO was afraid to commit to Ukraines defense because they thought the Ukrainian government would dissolve underneath them. The entire war has essentially been about forcing both Moscow and NATO to change their assumptions about the coherence of the Ukrainian government.

For the record I fell for the blob opinion the the Ukrainians would dissolve, at least I did a month ago, I changed my opinion completely after week one though. Feel free to tell my have this completely wrong, but it explains a LOT.

[danfrodo]

Is there much fighting in the 2013 Clancy book?  I just want the combat

I remember back in the day starting Patriot Games or some such and actually throwing it in the trash (it was cheap used paperback).  Opening scene is basically teenage-level wet dream fantasy of Clancy where he (via alter ego Ryan) saves Lady Di from IRA terrorist attack with his good ol' football tackling skills, which are much better than those silly submachine guns the baddies had.  The princess then gushes over the manly oh so manly american He-Man.  That was the end of my Clancy reads except for occasional revisit of the great Red Storm Rising.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is there much fighting in the 2013 Clancy book?  I just want the combat

I remember back in the day starting Patriot Games or some such and actually throwing it in the trash (it was cheap used paperback).  Opening scene is basically teenage-level wet dream fantasy of Clancy where he (via alter ego Ryan) saves Lady Di from IRA terrorist attack with his good ol' football tackling skills, which are much better than those silly submachine guns the baddies had.  The princess then gushes over the manly oh so manly american He-Man.  That was the end of my Clancy reads except for occasional revisit of the great Red Storm Rising.

The book received mostly positive reviews. Publishers Weekly noted it as "a classic spy novel", concluding: "Fans of extended combat sequences should look elsewhere, as the focus is on high stakes espionage and assassinations carried out in rented rooms and dark alleys, not well-lit battlefields

It isn't a Larry Bond joint title.  I much prefer Bond over Clancy.  Cauldron still ranks up there for me. 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think the thing about the FSB believing they already owned the Ukrainian Government explains a LOT,  maybe everything, about this war. First and foremost since the FSB believed it, Western intelligence agencies that seem too practically OWN Russian communications believed it. This was a BIG part of the prewar Western Government /media blob opinion that Ukraine would fall in a day. It appears to have been one of the more successful double agent operations in history. It is comparable to the British owning more or less every single German spy on the island from 1940 on, and being able to present a coherent but wrong picture to the Germans at will.  

Here is the crazy part, I think the success of this double blind led to the war. Putin thought success was guaranteed. Someone somewhere disregarded what I assume were repeated communications from the Ukrainians that the KGB was full of s$%%^#. The west believed Putin was right. NATO was afraid to commit to Ukraines defense because they thought the Ukrainian government would dissolve underneath them. The entire war has essentially been about forcing both Moscow and NATO to change their assumptions about the coherence of the Ukrainian government.

For the record I fell for the blob opinion the the Ukrainians would dissolve, at least I did a month ago, I changed my opinion completely after week one though. Feel free to tell my have this completely wrong, but it explains a LOT.

Well,  most of the world also thought Russia would fold up quickly in 1941 also.  So you are in good company with the rest of us knuckleheads who thought Putin would basically have a fait accompli. 

But it does fit in w why Putin's plan was so incredibly optimistic.  He thought he'd have a coup to cut off the head of the UKR state hours into the fight.  And now he's stuck in a mess and continually doubling down on failure w his only real tool being mass murder and infrastructure destruction.

[Erwin]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

The book received mostly positive reviews. Publishers Weekly noted it as "a classic spy novel", concluding: "Fans of extended combat sequences should look elsewhere, as the focus is on high stakes espionage and assassinations carried out in rented rooms and dark alleys, not well-lit battlefields

It isn't a Larry Bond joint title.  I much prefer Bond over Clancy.  Cauldron still ranks up there for me. 

They could be describing one of John LeCarre's xnt books.  While Clancy's Hunt for Red October book and (especially) the movie was xnt, the rest of Clancy's and Bond's were rather poorly written imo.  More like technical research manuals.   In terms of dramatic writing of real life war incidents, Cornelius Ryan was much better.

[akd]

@sburke

Major Azamat Alinov, company commander in 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade (typical for a Major to command a company in Spetsnaz units?)

 

[sross112]

53 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Now there is a quality post.  I guess you have more tricks than just amazing AARs.  Once one isolates and surrounds w syncophants, who knows what he was being told. 

The news today that he had paid coup-runners in UKR was interesting.  he thought he'd topple from both inside and outside.  Send army across border, take all the big airfields and use them to quickly get forces into place, and then trigger coup plotters.

I recently re-read Red Storm Rising.  Sooooooo fun.  Though I think Larry Bond did a lot of the work on this as Clancy's co-author.  Yeah, they deluded themselves into "this is our only option and is impossible to fail".

I may be wrong but was Kherson folding up and the failure to arm the TD in that area a success of the FSB plan? Maybe it didn't totally fail only like 97%. So it is still on par or better than the VDV!!

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Few interesting tidbits today:

 

 

This provides a lot more context to the then controversial steps Zelensky took to secure the political space: 

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-zelenskiy-bans-three-opposition-tv-stations/a-56438505

If we remember how clearly the US IC was anticipating Russian military moves, it's now become obvious that it was doing the same on the political side and was advising Zelensky accordingly. There was lots of kvetching about it among the usual suspects in DC who were outside of the magic circle of briefings.

[Vet 0369]

19 hours ago, DesertFox said:

A wasted generation. So young...

 

 

All males in the U.S. are required to register for Selective Service Within a specific time of their 18th birthday. A man or woman can enlist in the armed forces at 17-years old if they have signed permission of their parents or legal guardian. Audie Murphy, one of America’s most decorated soldiers of WWII enlisted in the U.S. Army at 15 or 16 by forging the permission. Eighteen and nineteen-year olds tend to feel they’re invulnerable, one of the reasons for being able to enlist at that age.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke

Major Azamat Alinov, company commander in 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade (typical for a Major to command a company in Spetsnaz units?)

 

Another unit on its second or third commander. The Russian officer corps is literally immolating itself in this rolling atrocity that they started. Russia will be a generation rebuilding from this if Putin pulls the plug in the next five minutes. In another week there just won't be an army left to rebuild, and Russia just dissolves into thirty separatist conflicts. An optimistic take, but not a crazy one.

[womble]

4 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I may be wrong but was Kherson folding up and the failure to arm the TD in that area a success of the FSB plan? Maybe it didn't totally fail only like 97%. So it is still on par or better than the VDV!!

One or more of our Ukrainian community members has referred to possibly treacherous deficiencies in the leadership of Kherson: improper preparation of the local defense brigades and potentially catastrophic dispersal of regular units "on exercises" at the time of the attack. So, I'd say that's a definite maybe.

[billbindc]

45 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think the thing about the FSB believing they already owned the Ukrainian Government explains a LOT,  maybe everything, about this war. First and foremost since the FSB believed it, Western intelligence agencies that seem too practically OWN Russian communications believed it. This was a BIG part of the prewar Western Government /media blob opinion that Ukraine would fall in a day. It appears to have been one of the more successful double agent operations in history. It is comparable to the British owning more or less every single German spy on the island from 1940 on, and being able to present a coherent but wrong picture to the Germans at will.  

Here is the crazy part, I think the success of this double blind led to the war. Putin thought success was guaranteed. Someone somewhere disregarded what I assume were repeated communications from the Ukrainians that the KGB was full of s$%%^#. The west believed Putin was right. NATO was afraid to commit to Ukraines defense because they thought the Ukrainian government would dissolve underneath them. The entire war has essentially been about forcing both Moscow and NATO to change their assumptions about the coherence of the Ukrainian government.

For the record I fell for the blob opinion the the Ukrainians would dissolve, at least I did a month ago, I changed my opinion completely after week one though. Feel free to tell my have this completely wrong, but it explains a LOT.

I agree with all of this. The delta in the situation is that the US admin had done tons and tons of 'what if the Ukrainians hold out' diplomatic and logistical legwork. Once the Russians invaded, the EU governments had already been prepped for the worst case scenario and had already agreed to many of the actions they later took. In fact, DC did such a good job that by the second week EU countries were going beyond what had been asked for. The big question now is holding them to course. You can see the 'war criminal', 'must lose power' etc comments in that light. The White House is locking them into position (as in, it's hard to drop sanctions on someone your government has agreed is a war criminal). 

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

All males in the U.S. are required to register for Selective Service Within a specific time of their 18th birthday. A man or woman can enlist in the armed forces at 17-years old if they have signed permission of their parents or legal guardian. Audie Murphy, one of America’s most decorated soldiers of WWII enlisted in the U.S. Army at 15 or 16 by forging the permission. Eighteen and nineteen-year olds tend to feel they’re invulnerable, one of the reasons for being able to enlist at that age.

My father enlisted early (and possibly underage) to get out of issues between his foster homes and the a55hat at the Catholic school he was in. Ended up serving on the USS The Sullivans off Korea.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

One or more of our Ukrainian community members has referred to possibly treacherous deficiencies in the leadership of Kherson: improper preparation of the local defense brigades and potentially catastrophic dispersal of regular units "on exercises" at the time of the attack. So, I'd say that's a definite maybe.

Literally the only place it worked, according to any information I can find. I suspect the people involved are trying desperately to be ANYWHERE else when the Ukrainians take Kherson back, which seems to be in progress, actually.

 

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I agree with all of this. The delta in the situation is that the US admin had done tons and tons of 'what if the Ukrainians hold out' diplomatic and logistical legwork. Once the Russians invaded, the EU governments had already been prepped for the worst case scenario and had already agreed to many of the actions they later took. In fact, DC did such a good job that by the second week EU countries were going beyond what had been asked for. The big question now is holding them to course. You can see the 'war criminal', 'must lose power' etc comments in that light. The White House is locking them into position (as in, it's hard to drop sanctions on someone your government has agreed is a war criminal). 

So part of the U.S. government believed the Ukrainians at least enough to hedge against the blob opinion in a meaningful way.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Literally the only place it worked, according to any information I can find. I suspect the people involved are trying desperately to be ANYWHERE else when the Ukrainians take Kherson back, which seems to be in progress, actually.

 

So part of the U.S. government believed the Ukrainians at least enough to hedge against the blob opinion in a meaningful way.

Very definitely. That logistical wave didn't magically come into being on February 24th. Folks too often forget that the CIA started as and remains to a large extent a paramilitary organization and that portion of the CIA has been working very hard with the Ukrainians since 2014. Even if Putin's political plans had worked, there was a very large resistance movement in the works. In practice, those plans simply had to be altered somewhat to fit the Ukrainian army successfully remaining  in the field and an unlooked for flood of EU support.

Of interest: https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-secret-cia-training-program-in-ukraine-helped-kyiv-prepare-for-russian-invasion-090052743.html

Edited March 27, 2022 by billbindc

[Vet 0369]

17 hours ago, dan/california said:

If you made me king for a day I would put a Marine division on Taiwan, permanently.

Has anyone been factoring in the feelings and attitudes of the indigenous Formosians? Perhaps the anger and resentment from Chang Kai Shek “appropriating their island has diminished since they were invaded and displaced by the Nationalists, but they definitely weren’t happy about it at the time. I have also read that the Formosans are still being treated as second class citizens. I might be hand probably are) wrong about that, but it is something to consider.

[Vacillator]

13 minutes ago, billbindc said:

the US admin had done tons and tons of 'what if the Ukrainians hold out' diplomatic and logistical legwork... the EU governments had already been prepped for the worst case scenario and had already agreed to many of the actions they later took. In fact, DC did such a good job

Tongue in cheek here - God bless America!  Now you can shoot me down in flames...

[DesertFox]

Short range SKIF hit

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1508078103016488963?s=20

 

[DesertFox]

As we have talked about T80s a few pages back. Would love to see them in CMBS, whenever the next module is scheduled.

 

 

[billbindc]

The imagination and attention to detail suggest lots of this was planned well ahead: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/03/fbi-trolls-russian-embassy-with-geotargeted-ads-for-disgruntled-spies/