How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Rezantsev (49th CAA C,/O) was at  at Chornobaivka airbase - y'know, where all those helos were safely landing and taking off...

I wonder if he moved forwards to stiffen defensive resolve and chose THE MOST PERFECT SPOT on the entire front line.

 

8th CAA commander Lt.-Gen. Mordvichev was killed there also.  I suspect Ukraine found out they were meeting…

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, Greup said:

Oh, that’s a scoop, right? So the express.co.uk is a reliable source now? LOL. It’s rather the tabloid of Internet news AFAIK. 
Sweden did send 5000 AT4s a week or two ago to Ukraine and this week they decided to send 5000 more (putting them on Putin’s “unfriendly” countries list). It’s not exactly breaking news. 

Regarding jets: So what country/organization would a Swedish fighter jet belong to if not the Swedish Air Force? The Swedish Mad Fighter Jet’s Association? ROFLMAO, but  I guess express.co.uk have inside news unbeknownst to the rest of the world. Anyways, a signals intelligence airplane is not really a threat to Putain (French spelling), is  it? And it would not be over Belarus but close to the Belarus border if anything. Whatever. 

Just try to be as sane as possible and don’t refer to tabloid media as some kind of objective truth, will you.

Cheers, 
Greup
 

 

 

Yes I agree, the Express is a sensationalist tabloid and should not be used as a news source for these discussions.  

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Here's some light comedy for you all this afternoon / evening:

 

 

That is hilarious!  if I hadn't seen the ship burning to a crisp I'd be reassured it's in fine condition.  But I did, so I'm not.  Oh, and then there's the source of information to consider

Steve

[chris talpas]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Let's put it this way.  Some random person now has intel from a front thousands of miles away in a timeframe that no battlefield commander would have had prior to drones and cellphones.

You know, as much as I've been following this since 2014 I don't think the full implications have yet to register with me.  I say this because pretty much every day of this war I find myself having a new insight.

Steve

 

Borg Spotting^TM a concept that was ahead of its time 

Come on Steve, are you sure you don't have some sorta time machine?

 

[dan/california]

Another winner of a thread from Trent

[akd]

@sburke

”Only” a captain, but acting commander of a motor rifle battalion at time of death, so I think worth cataloguing.  Unit not identified.  Captain Timur Suleymanov:

 

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke

”Only” a captain, but acting commander of a motor rifle battalion at time of death, so I think worth cataloguing.  Unit not identified.  Captain Timur Suleymanov:

 

do we know the unit?  duh, never mind

Edited March 27, 2022 by sburke

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke

”Only” a captain, but acting commander of a motor rifle battalion at time of death, so I think worth cataloguing.  Unit not identified.  Captain Timur Suleymanov:

 

So if a captain is commanding a motor rifle battalion the MRB in question has already lost its original command group, and it's back up command group. So the one that just got waxed was the last guy standing who who can read and write command group. Any guesses on the combat effectiveness of that MRB? Assuming there is anything left besides sunflower fertilizer?

Edited March 26, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[DesertFox]

Not even farmers have any need for that cage...

 

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, akd said:

8th CAA commander Lt.-Gen. Mordvichev was killed there also.  I suspect Ukraine found out they were meeting…

Mordicheev has been sunflowered for a while, no? I dont think they were meeting.

I think..

Unless Russian Zombies really are a thing... :conflicted:

[akd]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

do we know the unit?

Nope.

This guy, however, is probably from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade: Marine Major Alexey Sukhanov, killed in Mariupol.

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Nope.

This guy, however, is probably from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade: Marine Major Alexey Sukhanov, killed in Mariupol.

 

damn the commander was already on the list.

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So if a captain is commanding a motor rifle battalion the MRB in question has already lost its original command group, and it's back up command group.

That was my immediate presumption.  The Major or LTC previously in command of the Bn got taken out by something.  However, it could be just as easily illness or non-combat injury as a combat related one.  For example, maybe he's in one of the tanks that drove off a bridge or maybe someone just ran over his legs.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not even farmers have any need for that cage...

 

 

Man, I didn't think the Ukrainians were such an ungrateful bunch.  Russia was nice enough to give them a whole tank and what do they do with it?  Burn it.  Wow.  So unappreciative!

I bet Putin isn't going to send these guys a Christmas card next year (even if he's still alive).

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So we are not talking about EW, or at least not just EW.  We are talking about an ISR superiority bubble, that if collapses results in a quick ignoble death.  A Sense bubble included data and information superiority.  If everyone has these then

1) surprise is pretty much dead because we are talking decentralized bubbles not a singular big brain one can hit.  You can collapse a Local Bubble but what about the rest?  You might even degrade the operational systems but any given maneuver unit has enough integral capability to create their own bubbles.

2) You have to re-think manoeuvre warfare from the ground up.  The whole thing is predicated on avoiding strength and hitting vulnerabilities, which is pretty hard if an opponent can see you coming miles off.  Further a local Sense bubble collapse also sends a clear signal of effort, which one can also not hide.

3) Mass might be suicidal.  As in Airland battle concentration leading to death does not necessarily flow from air superiority.  By seeing high mass concentration from well back, or even at it is forming means interdiction can come from many vectors.  This plus PGM means NLOS over the horizon massed fires before you even make contact can destroy concentrations of mass.  This indicated land warfare might start to resemble naval warfare but distributed.

And I think this only scratches the surfaces as that Sense bubble has to include a logistics tail or security is impossible.  Honestly I am going to need a bit of time to digest this all, it was Hapless’ mention of snow globes that clicked it. 

What you seem to be describing is a form of warfare free from most of the friction which Clausewitz described. You still have to deal with friendly friction, losses from movement, the physical time and act of movement, C2 breakdowns and misunderstandings. But the biggest form of friction is of course the fog of war. Without it, the main body could maneuver as you describe. 

Of course this requires a high level, nearing perfect & instantaneous, awareness of the battlefield AND a superior enough OODA loop to be able to produce action based off the information. Ukraine seems currently to posses this, and likely the US Army does (to some extent, we could debate endlessly how much) as well. Probably China does or soon will. But it seems to me the the stumbling block then regards ones ability to make decisions. Imagine, hypothetically, that Ukraine has perfect ISR and is totally aware of RA activities, and always with enough time to check them. Practically I'd guess this hypothetical isn't that far off of the truth. The defense against this situation would seem to be to develop a deception plan sophisticated enough so that when the enemy inevitably detects your movement, they are drawn either to the wrong conclusion OR into a dilemma from which there is no 'winning' response. To the first, a trick Iraqi tankers used (apparently to some effect) in '91 was to light barrels of oil on fire in the belly of knocked out vehicles. Eventually theyd heat up and glow on thermals, leading to a wasted engagements. The sensors worked, were accurate, and reported back proper information. Its just the information was inaccurate. On a strategic level the inflatable army of 1944 preformed a similar function. There was no way the Luftwaffe could know the photos were inaccurate, their sensors reported the proper information but the conclusions drawn from it were wrong.

Imagine if Russia had unleashed on D+1 a long horde of self driving metal plates which emitted radio signals like a tank, bounced off a tanks worth of Radar waves, maybe even looked like tanks from orbit. But were not tanks. The sensing information is not wrong, but without a single key piece of info (boots on the ground, which obviously Ukraine now has lots of) the analysis is incorrect. What you would need is a strong picture, developed pre war, of the enemy's ISR capabilities and emphasis. In addition to a plan to decoy and deceive them. 

Your point about the Navy is interesting, and probably true. Though there are some complicating factors. Most importantly the Navy has the possibility to solve this problem through the use a vast maneuver space and the ability to most easily amongst the branches wage strategic warfare. For example, much ink has been spilled over Chinese A2/AD capabilities in the South China Sea. The USN probably can no longer sail their in the event of war, and certainly not with CVBGs. Part of this is detection related, part of it is the ability to prosecute targets. But China has several centers of gravity outside the danger zone. For example, access to the worlds oil market. For China and much of East Asia this still runs through the Straight of Malacca. Deny China oil through Malacca, you attack their economy directly. It doesn't matter if the see you do it or not, as the Straight could be denied (thanks to air and submarine power) at a very significant distance. What we could be seeing then is a transition toward more strategically oriented more decisively planned warfare. You fight on Day One to control the center of gravity, wherever it may lie, rather than faff about with presidents and capitals and military forces. 

An interesting article in one of the old Makers of Modern Strategy editions by Michael Geyer. Its on Germany between the World Wars. It basically argues that the German Army after 1914 lost its sense of strategy. It didn't have a winning strategic vision, so it retreated into winning battles without worrying about strategy. Take Verdun. Win a battle at Verdun, inflict lots of casualties, and France will just miraculously collapse. Or 1918 in the Spring Offensive. Attack everywhere, win everywhere, and SOMEHOW the war will be over. This continue, Geyer argues, into WWII where the German army was often the best operational and tactical power of the war BUT never translated that into a strategic victory. In this case because the Nazi strategy and war goal was out of its mind. The point being though, in the west/NATO weve inherited a few of these bad habits. How do you win in Afghanistan? IDK just go win some battles and hope things work out. How do we win in Vietnam? Have you tried killing more people? The ISR pivot may mean that nations dont have months or years to figure out how to win, but rather have to do it in the course of one offensive. Deceive your enemy, gore them on the horns of a dilemma, push forward with decentralized forces, or bog down and get smashed. Ones expectation might now be to win while the whole world is watching (and shooting) rather than, as you say, hope that surprise (in the form of the fog of war) will catch them unawares. 

Here is your fun test of these ideas: Go in to CMBS. Increase the values for the detection range of UAVs as well as their ability to spot hidden units. Make them able to sense almost everything. Then fight a few battles, see what happens. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Battlefront.com]

Here's another truth bomb...

In the past whenever this Forum has had discussions about the capabilities of Russian forces and equipment there's usually been a debate about quality, effectiveness, and whatever else the topic required.  Usually the debates would be fairly balanced between those supporting the premise and those opposing it.

Those days are over.

For the next 10 years at least there are not going to be such debates.  Instead, camps will form to debate the degree of awfulness.  Anybody that attempts to make a case that there's something positive to say about the Russian forces or equipment will be quickly dismissed as out of touch with reality.

The debate about Russian power is over.

Let that sink in for a bit. 

Wow.

Steve

[dan/california]

It seems to have sunk in for Azerbaijan. I suspect they won't be the last.

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody that attempts to make a case that there's something positive to say about the Russian forces or equipment will be quickly dismissed as out of touch with reality.

The debate about Russian power is over.

Let that sink in for a bit. 

Wow.

Steve

I dunno.  I think it is very positive that Russia donated so much metal material to Ukrainian farmers.  I think you are being unfair to the beneficence of King Vlad. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by sburke

[BeondTheGrave]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In the past whenever this Forum has had discussions about the capabilities of Russian forces and equipment there's usually been a debate about quality, effectiveness, and whatever else the topic required.  Usually the debates would be fairly balanced between those supporting the premise and those opposing it.

I fear the overreaction. The T-72 is understandably long in the tooth, and this also opens up a very serious question regarding the T-90 and its supposed improvements over the T-72. But the T-80 seems to me to be less of a cut and dry case. The T-80 is the same age as the Leo2 and M1, and its upgrade packages in the -80U seem to be equivalent to what was done for the Abrams (and maybe Leo? Sometimes I wonder if the modern Leo2 is really even the same tank). Checking Oryx, Russian T-80 losses seem to be about half of that of the T-72. Is that because the tank is "twice" as good, or because half as many are in use proportionally? 

Weve all said it before, and I'll say it again. Its hard to draw specific conclusions regarding how Russian equipment is preforming. The Russian failure is doctrinal and systemic, not just equipment driven. And even within equipment, how many of these tanks have unaddressed mechanical failures? How many T-80s just broke down and were captured, rather than lost in combat? How many were supposed to have NVGs or Thermals or other upgraded features but someone at the upgrade plant skimmed the gear and left the old stuff on it? Or the supply truck's tire weren't checked and maintained properly so the circuit board destined for the SAM radar never arrived so the TB-2 floated over the battlefield and shot the fuel truck so the tank is now sitting on fumes facing down a major attack? 

To drive the point home, Oryx lists more tanks in the 'abandoned' or 'captured' category than in the 'destroyed' category. 42A, 126C, 128D. Is Russian kit bad, or is it being used stupidly? 

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The debate about Russian power is over.

This is probably the single biggest lesson of the war. You cannot unwind this in a year. This is a generational fix. Russia is done. Upper Volta with rockets. For the second time Moscow is a fief of Beijing. Hope it was worth it lads. And I hope every hawk in Washington is watching closely. As the saying goes, "There go I but for the grace of God." 

Edited March 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Vergeltungswaffe]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's another truth bomb...

In the past whenever this Forum has had discussions about the capabilities of Russian forces and equipment there's usually been a debate about quality, effectiveness, and whatever else the topic required.  Usually the debates would be fairly balanced between those supporting the premise and those opposing it.

Those days are over.

For the next 10 years at least there are not going to be such debates.  Instead, camps will form to debate the degree of awfulness.  Anybody that attempts to make a case that there's something positive to say about the Russian forces or equipment will be quickly dismissed as out of touch with reality.

The debate about Russian power is over.

Let that sink in for a bit. 

Wow.

Steve

I was always in the camp of the Russians are seriously overrated, China is where we need to focus, but I still have yet to wrap my head around just how unbelievably terrible they are.

[MikeyD]

Ukraine is winning the war with Russian legacy equipment, or derivatives thereof. Russian and Ukrainian artillery are basically the same. Russian and Ukrainian drones are both loitering over the battlefield. Infantry on both sides carry AKs. But the difference in outcomes is stark. Its the difference between a surgeon performing an operation and the town drunkard attempting the same operation.

Edited March 27, 2022 by MikeyD

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

I was always in the camp of the Russians are seriously overrated, China is where we need to focus, but I still have yet to wrap my head around just how unbelievably terrible they are.

We need to get a straight answer From the Taiwanese about how badly they don't to be conquered. If they are are convincing in their desire not become a large island gulag, we need to start pumping hardware in their like there is already a war on, the second Ukraine cools off. It will be SEVERAL orders of magnitude cheaper to convince the Chinese they shouldn't even think about trying, than it would be to rebuild the world economy after the fact.

[akd]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody that attempts to make a case that there's something positive to say about the Russian forces or equipment

Neither positive or negative, but now we can talk more about the T-80U front hull armor array:

[dan/california]

If you made me king for a day I would put a Marine division on Taiwan, permanently.

[Fenris]

I tend to agree in so far as the failings are nearly entirely due to human factors - poor leadership, tactics, morale, vehicle maintenance (including lack of things due to corruption) etc etc.  I think the Russian kit is serviceable enough, it's the people that have failed so miserably at either using or supporting it.  Edit - if you mean it's not on par with the latest western gear then yeah I tend to agree with that too.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Fenris