How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[John Kettler]

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

The not-terribly-distant future, imho, is UGV's armed with small caliber, but highly destructive, railguns, and 1 or more microwave emitters on top to fry drones.

Vergeltungswaffe,

Barring some stupendous breakthrough in compact power supplies, much as I love railguns and such, going back to that German electromagnetic cannon of WW II, I don't see how any drone smaller and lighter than say, a fully loaded A-10 could possibly mount a railgun and still fly. Didn't the US Navy wind up throwing in the towel on the railgun ground mount under test?

Regards,

John Kettler 

[womble]

10 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Believe I have two significant developments to report. The Pentagon has leaked the conclusions of its own analyses of what Putin's really doing in Ukraine and how. They are emphatically counter the official narrative of what Putin's doing, regarding such things as objectives, force applied, targets, attacks on civilians and infrastructure, prospects for chemical attacks and more.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/23/pentagon-drops-truth-bombs-to-stave-off-war-with-russia/
 

Did you read that? Cos it doesn't ring true with the eyewitness accounts of what's going on that we're getting here. It neglects to mention that the Russians haven't created the conditions whereby they can carpet bomb Kyiv, that the UA ABM establishment is shooting down the missiles that are targeted on central Kyiv.

I am deeply suspicious of its sources and its agenda. It's either woefully out of date, or ignoring the documented occurrences of war crimes and the massive war crime that is Mariupol and the incompetent or duplicitous failure to maintain "humanitarian corridors". A telling line from the article: 

Quote

Until these Pentagon leaks it was difficult to confirm that Russia was entirely telling the truth and that corporate media were publishing fables cooked up by Ukraine’s publicity machine. 

Any claim that Russia is entirely telling the truth is either mendacious or so naive as to be negligible. Given the rest of the subtext in that article, I'm leaning towards the "mendacious" end of the spectrum. I do not believe that this is a leak of the Pentagon's "internal truth".

Edit: Oh, and the other aritcle you linked is blatantly written by Kremlin apologists. Probably in the actual Kremlin itself, from its none-too-subtle propaganda points.

Edited March 26, 2022 by womble

[womble]

9 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Know there was a crackdown after that SM debacle, but either the lesson has been forgotten or the security organs are not too bright, properly motivated or both. 

No. They learned that lesson. Evidence: they confiscated all the low level troops' mobile phones before they crossed the border, according to POW accounts (and I think you can be sure that this is the case, or we'd have seen a veritable torrent of social media posts from the RUS side).

The failure of INFOSEC seems to have been much more systematic and ingrained. They just don't have either the systems to operate secure comms in a hostile environment (due to interference within their own setup, or from opposition sources), or the skills and application to operate them properly, if the intercepts are any indication.

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, akd said:

@Haiduk, is this just ru.wikipedia hijinx or something?

Dmitry Bulgakov Acting Defense Minister since March 14, 2022.

I've seen photos of Ru MoD documents, signed by Bulgakov as acting minister. Before this, he was a deputy of Shoigu.  Reportedly Shoigu has problems with a heart

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

10%...

 

 

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Machor said:

First Ukrainian Pion loss - captured by Russians.

This was near Berdiansk at the beginning of war. There was a rhumors we could lost at least a battery of 2S7 there, but one gun only spotted for now. This is a photo of the same gun. Looks like it was broken during the movement and damaged by own crew

 

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

10%...

 

 

 

 

 

We were talking about this about 50 pages back and we’re being generous with a 50% readiness rate.  10% is abysmal.  That means if 2500 ready tanks were sent into the initial invasion (of which somewhere between 300-500 have been lost), the out of the remaining Russian strategic inventory of about 10000 tanks they can count on 1000 being operational for service.  Worse those 1000 are buried in a mess of non operational tanks that might also need to be canabalized in order to make the 1000.  This isn’t a paper tiger, it is a stuffed one, filled with toxic fluff. 

If this is confirmed Steves theory of total collapse just got a lot more realistic.

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Believe your characterization of the RKG-1600 is a bit confused. The grenade hasn't been upgraded, but merely fitted with fins so it can be used as an aerial bomb.

I meant exactly this under "upgrading"

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

If this is confirmed Steves theory of total collapse just got a lot more realistic.

Yep, additionally keep in mind that they allegedely committed 120 of their 168 BTGs to Ukraine. Not much left in the arsenal which is capable to roll out of the door, if you ask me.

[womble]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

the remaining Russian strategic inventory of about 10000 tanks they can count on 1000 being operational for service

Do we know what the models of these tanks are? Are they T-72s, or older types? How would that affect operational issues as and when they reach the front lines?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We were talking about this about 50 pages back and we’re being generous with a 50% readiness rate.  10% is abysmal.  

This is reportedly for the 4th Tank Division - Kantemirovskaya. I suppose for non-elite units it would be worse still.

[John Kettler]

womble,

As far as I can tell so far, no one is telling the complete truth, but what I do believe is that, relative to what Russia could've done long since to devastate Ukraine, it hasn't. It didn't destroy the power supply, the water supply and treatment, waste treatment, etc. By contrast, when the US attacked Iraq, it did directly attack the power grid, doing such things as dropping chains on electrical substations and deploying carbon fiber cabling (via specially equipped Tomahawks) on high tension lines to short them out. Further, the US not only attacked Iraq's water supply, but used sanctions to prevent rebuilding after the first Persian Gulf war.

https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/iraq-how-us-intentionally-destroyed-iraqs-water-supply

Neither has Russia gone at the core of Kviv, based, at least, on the reporting I've seen to date. I fully believe that the Russians could've executed their own toned down version of shock and awe with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, against vital Ukrainian infrastructure, from the get, but they didn't. Am definitely not advocating for canonizing Putin, but certainly by Russian standards, he has been remarkably restrained. The Soviets would've machine gunned the civilians blocking the roads, run them over with tanks, or even strafed them, but he hasn't. Granted, no one has had to conduct military operations with real time broadcasting of almost everything being done, so that most certainly has acted as a damper, because of extremely damaging optics before a global audience.

There have absolutely been civilian casualties (total count unknown to me; have been focused on military side of things), and it's quite clear that some of the Russian soldiers have been nothing less than murdering, thieving thugs, as both eyewitness testimony and their own calls home conclusively prove.  And accounts I saw yesterday on that French news video make a strong case that some Russian soldiers are simply gunning down hapless civilians. Fortunately, there has been no carpet bombing of residential areas that at I know of in Kviv, Kharkiv, etc. From what I know, Mariupol has been a veritable mini Stalingrad, with concomitant devastation of the city as both sides have fought a seesaw battle to control it. Other places hit seem to offer no such military justification at all, but in such a situation of ever worsening command chaos, how much is troops running amok and how much at Putin's direct behest? I don't know. But if war crimes have been committed, then the perps--at all levels--should be brought to justice.  In the face of modern firepower, am astounded there have been so few reported civilian deaths. 

But we also know that certain claimed outrages have not occurred (bombing the in fact empty for days Mariupol maternity facility, but selling the story as a slaughter of pregnant mothers and infants by using a crisis actor and suitable BG; shades of the evil Iraqi soldiers stealing ventilators and leaving preemies to die--dreamed up by Hill & Knowlton), and that others (the shopping mall) were legitimate targets because not only was the complex used as a firing location for Grad, but because there was a significant quantity of UA vehicles garaged there as well. We know for a fact, by direct admission of one senior officer who piloted four such missions,  that at least some RuAF operations have targeted civilians with large bombs (mercifully with a high dud rate), and am not quite sure where the truth lies ref MRL strikes, especially considering Azov, for example, which has de facto resorted to human shield tactics to protect their armor, trucks, and presumably infantry against UA strikes. Baiting the other side this way, for protection and propaganda  purposes, is a well-established dirty trick. The North Vietnamese but AAA on hospitals, stored munitions in them and put AAA on the dikes, then raised a howl when we hit them.  Mines are clearly in use by both sides, posing a significant risk to civilians as a result, and these assuredly are not the self-sterilizing variety, either. Have no handle at all on what has or hasn't been hit by thermobarics from Buratino, Uragan and Smerch. Offhand, the only one I know has been used for thermobarics is the Buratino, but that may be because I missed it, forgot, or was never reported. Street fighting footage shows that Shmel series thermobaric weapons are in use. UA has such munitions, too. The evidence of Russian use of cluster munitions in some cities is unambiguous. To my knowledge, areas hit had no military targets in them. At least, that's what Belingcat has shown in its usual meticulous manner. 

Am of the opinion that if Putin's intention was to conduct limited ops for defined (internally, at least) national purposes, one of which he's been quite vocal about, things have definitely gotten out of control (a problem doubtless made worse by the US-enabled devastation of the Russian senior commanders). But if Putin's objective from the get was to conquer Ukraine outright, then this may be the most restrained large scale military operation in both SU and RF history. This opinion is independent of whether or not Putin was ever able to succeed in such a gargantuan task to begin with, using the forces he had. 

No matter how you slice it, this war is the usual tragedy for the innocent civilians caught in the middle, be they in Ukraine, Donetsk or Luhansk.

DesertFox,

This is the sort of thing Andrew Cockburn wrote about in his shocking to many Inside The Soviet Military Machine, in which, by interviewing Jewish emigres in Brighton Beach, he was able to massively deflate the Bear, by revealing that, for example, alcohol to clean the rotating ring of radars was being drunk, NBC suits were being sold to fishermen, fuel was being sold to civilians. In Afghanistan, soldiers were selling their weapons to get money to buy drugs, too. There are multiple reports of wives and mothers trying to get the Soviet Air Force to stop building planes that were flying ethanol tanks, too. That tanks in storage had been pilfered to some degree doesn't surprise me, but I had no idea it was of such enormous scope and scale as to render the tanks completely unbattleworthy. 

Regards,

John Kettler
 

Edited March 26, 2022 by John Kettler

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk,

If you know, please, what's that song, so I can lok it up. Dig it.

This is remix of patriotic song "Oh, the red viburnum in the meadow". The viburnum is one of symbols of Ukraine. The song was written in 1914 and since The First Liberation Contests 1917-1920 and later during UPA resistance in 1943-50th became as unofficial anthem of fighting Ukraine. 

Here is traditional performance of this song (with English subs and some explainations). There are alot of different remixes exist, so I don't know what exacly that, which on the video with tanks

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

John

There are plenty of good reasons for a dictator who wants to conquer a place not to scorch the earth of that place. Central Kyiv is being hit, and the only reason the devastation is not worse is the ABM defense in its airspace, and the efforts of the UA to keep the many RA tubes out of range, and busy with military targets.

However, that's all irrelevant to the point of my comment on the article you posted. Go back and read it again, and see how its underlying attitude matches to the OSINT sources that you've access to. Hint: it is at odds with them. Look at the language used, and see the propaganda piece for what it is. It's not very subtle.

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, womble said:

Do we know what the models of these tanks are? Are they T-72s, or older types? How would that affect operational issues as and when they reach the front lines?

Good question.  I am looking for two indicators here, Soviet tanks such as the older T72/64 stuff, or even worse T62s.  Or the infamous T14 (if they have more than 1) makes an appearance.  Both would indicate that they are approaching a point of desperation.

[John Kettler]

Haiduk,

Wonderful song, haunting delivery, beautiful and rousing! thanks much for providing this.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Good question.  I am looking for two indicators here, Soviet tanks such as the older T72/64 stuff, or even worse T62s.  Or the infamous T14 (if they have more than 1) makes an appearance.  Both would indicate that they are approaching a point of desperation.

The_Capt,

Well, the BMP-T has apparently been sent to Ukraine, so perhaps we should alert the elite Tractor Corps? As for T-14s, believe the Russians have 30 nominally in service for troop trials. No ideas on T-15 and Bumerang. On the low end of the scale, considering the Russians dug out their MT-12s, do they have any T-62s also in storage, or did they turn them into fortified gun positions facing China?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Kraft]

The fact that several unupgraded T-72A's have already been spotted in the 2nd week with Russian markings! not belonging to DPR/LPR shows that Russia is lacking in armor to field.

Their operational high value assets are already in a poor state, I do not think much care was given to the tens of thousand rust buckets sitting in a snowy lot somewhere since 1991.

And once they manage to cannibalize a working tank unit out of those, who is going to drive them without full mobilisation?

Surely not the charred bony remains of what used to be semi trained troops.

 

And whoever posted the vice video about Kharkiv.. just tragic.

I saw a twitter video today of corpses in Mariupol being stacked in trucks and on the stairs and hallways of the morgue as the personel is unable to bury any bodies and the inventory is filled.

I wish Zelensky strengh in withstanding the Russian Terror doctrine to hold and keep the Russians engaged. A ceasefire / negotiations are not wise atm in my opinion.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kraft

[akd]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Good question.  I am looking for two indicators here, Soviet tanks such as the older T72/64 stuff, or even worse T62s.  Or the infamous T14 (if they have more than 1) makes an appearance.  Both would indicate that they are approaching a point of desperation.

Still missing at least 3 battalions of operational T-90Ms.  Probably hanging out close to Moscow.

[Haiduk]

After three days of encirclement and siege Russians entered to Slavutych town, the settlement of Chernobyl nuclear plant personnel. The town situates on the eastern bank of Dnieper river in 30+ km west from Chernihiv. There is a border between Ukraine and Belarus close to the town. The town, locating on the territory of Chernihiv oblast, is enclave of Kyiv oblast.

Russians temporary detained the town mayor, but liberated him later. 

There was a big rally of citizen against Russian occupation. Russians shot in the air and used tear gas. Reportedly several civilains wounded and as if one killed, but this is not confirmed yet. 

Russians today issued a video of large group of captured Ukrainan soldiers (about two platoons). This was some logistic center in Mykolaivka villlage 14 km west from Kyiv city limit. The captured says their supply ran out on 3rd of March, so this is old video, when Russians advanced to Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway less than two weeks ago. There is an open question whose this destroyed T-72B. It hasn't markings, but recently such tanks weren't spotted around Kyiv on Ukrainian side, though we have them on armament too.

  

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Holien]

John IMO you are being a useful Russian stooge once again...

47 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

But we also know that certain claimed outrages have not occurred (bombing the in fact empty for days Mariupol maternity facility, but selling the story as a slaughter of pregnant mothers and infants by using a crisis actor and suitable BG

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/10/twitter-deletes-russian-embassys-posts-calling-an-apparent-pregnant-ukraine-hospital-victim-a-crisis-actor/?sh=6e323ee73c2b

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60589965

As Womble politely asked you please engage what critical thought process you have

32 minutes ago, womble said:

Hint: it is at odds with them. Look at the language used, and see the propaganda piece for what it is. It's not very subtle.

The truth is out there..... (Just not on certain US TV channels...)

 

[akd]

@sburke

Sacked: Lieutenant General Sergei Kissel, commander 1st Guards Tank Army

 

Suicided: Col. ??? ???, commander 13th Guards Tank Regiment, 4th Guards Tank Division (see posts above).

Edited March 26, 2022 by akd

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, womble said:

Did you read that? Cos it doesn't ring true with the eyewitness accounts of what's going on that we're getting here. It neglects to mention that the Russians haven't created the conditions whereby they can carpet bomb Kyiv, that the UA ABM establishment is shooting down the missiles that are targeted on central Kyiv.

I am deeply suspicious of its sources and its agenda. It's either woefully out of date, or ignoring the documented occurrences of war crimes and the massive war crime that is Mariupol and the incompetent or duplicitous failure to maintain "humanitarian corridors". A telling line from the article: 

Any claim that Russia is entirely telling the truth is either mendacious or so naive as to be negligible. Given the rest of the subtext in that article, I'm leaning towards the "mendacious" end of the spectrum. I do not believe that this is a leak of the Pentagon's "internal truth".

Edit: Oh, and the other aritcle you linked is blatantly written by Kremlin apologists. Probably in the actual Kremlin itself, from its none-too-subtle propaganda points.

Well said, Wombie. Please keep such rubbish out, John.

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

...
But we also know that certain claimed outrages have not occurred (bombing the in fact empty for days Mariupol maternity facility, but selling the story as a slaughter of pregnant mothers and infants by using a crisis actor and suitable BG...

As soon as you see the words "crisis actor", you should know whatever the story is, it's nonsense.

I'm not aware of any event in the world that was actually staged using "crisis actors" - it's just a right-wing meme.

In fact, if you thought about it critically for a bit, you'd realise that such a thing would be almost impossible to pull off - you'd have to get everyone for miles around to buy into it, or someone would be saying "they're not from around here" and variations on it.

PS: the woman you're calling a "crisis actor" died of her wounds.