How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Splinty]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke, another Major / MRB commander, 488th Motor Rifle Regiment, 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division:

 

I'm beginning to suspect that many of these Majors were in the vicinity of Colonels and/or Generals at the time of their demise.

[Kinophile]

"Komrad General, Sir! I'm here to report-"

"WTF!? Why are you here? REPORT WHAT?!"

"Sir, we are low on fuel, and-"

"Everyone's low on bloody fuel! You could have texted that, y'know! No need to come here trailing a comms signature like a goddamn skunk in a kindergarten!! Text, man, text!"

"I did. Many times. With photos-"

"Photos?! Are you nuts!? Have you any idea what that does to my data, you marsh-dwelling imbecile? We're literally ROAMING in Ukraine!!"

"Sir, I felt it my duty to-"

"-to get me KILLED!?"

"Sir, we're eight km from the front! They couldn't hit a barn at thi-

 

 

And SCENE.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Here’s something we haven’t seen yet, I think:

 

I hope we soon have video of this beast shredding some helicopters

[Kraft]

I have seen first video of seperatist saying Ukr soldiers came to them to surrender while filming a line of 7 shot up bodies

[John Kettler]

On 3/20/2022 at 7:39 AM, Armorgunner said:

I belive its even thinner, behind the wheels that far down. (dont know the english word, sorry)

https://below-the-turret-ring.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-armor-protection-of-t-72-tank.html

The lower section seems to be only 20mm

 

 

Armorgunner,

Historically, and at least through the T-62, the lower side hull has been mild steel, not. armor plate. This was done for cost savings, faster production and analysis indicating lower likelihood of lower hull hits, plus passive shielding from running gear, especially true of the tanks with large roadwheels.

Regards,

John. Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/20/2022 at 9:34 AM, The_Capt said:

First off the Russian military has an enormous defensive problem, entirely of their own making.  By my rough measurements, by attacking along 4-5 separate operational axis of advance in an attempt to take the whole eastern part of the country, they now have a frontage of roughly 1400km+ to try and "defend".  That is roughly three times as long as the entire Western Front in WW1. 

The_Capt,

Your point about frontage to be covered in Ukraine vs the Western Front is most extraordinary and revealing. Bravo!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, The Steppenwulf said:

Jeez that's some list for just one day. How much longer can this go on for? Simply unsustainable losses! Mainstream media only just recognised that Russia might be losing this war.

As far as I understand it.... The loses on these sites get counted based on the visual evidence uploaded to the internet.  So he(she) may well be counting something that was destroyed or filmed a few weeks/days ago but only now been uploaded.  I read a tweet that said he spent some time yesterday catching up on the UKR loses. So, for what it's worth, I don't think you can necessarily say lost in just a single day.  That doesn't change the sentiment that the RF appears to be losing a awful lot of equipment.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Fenris

[John Kettler]

On 3/20/2022 at 11:15 AM, dan/california said:

Assume a 2500 meter effective range for multiple Ukrainian ATGM systems which is actually pretty conservative. You have to maintain a 5km wide band of territory for every single supply rout. So that is basically a max size CMBS map wide. How many troops does it take to find and fix one hostile platoon on a full sized CMBS map with moderate terrain complications. Remember the platoons isn't trying to fight, just hide until a supply truck, or trucks wander thru. Your entire supply line is just one full sized CMBS map after another from fire base "We're ^###*%$# mommy" to the Russian border. Maybe a lot longer if Belarus wobbles even a little bit. Would one company of decent infantry be enough to even attempt it? DO the Russians have ANY infantry that can be described as decent? Or at least any left ? The Russian  math does NOT add.

dan/california,

With Javelins in play,  your numbers go up to 4000-5000 meters, stupendously worsening the security cordon problem. And that's just to protect against direct infantry attack. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/20/2022 at 3:48 PM, Haiduk said:

Two TOR-M1 destroyed by IEDs 

Haiduk,

Spare parts for the others captured intact or close to that!

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

What some of the recent intel assessments re: frostbite and other issues is based on:

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/20/2022 at 4:33 PM, dan/california said:

I am not even sure the Russians have enough superiority of fire to go static in the first place. I realize we are only seeing the successes mostly. But I am not sure you can dig in deep enough to withstand accurate, drone directed 152mm fire. If the Russians are static the Ukrainians can just keep maneuvering for local superiority of fires until the Russian line is more wrecked than their supply convoys

dan/california,

Haiduk has provided a number of shattering hi res examples showing that not even a deep pit can save a tank from being destroyed in place by artillery fire. If the Russian had their force in those underground tank garages with multiple firing points, maybe. but there would be no way to hide such activities as making even one of those. Also, the Russians deem 122 mm enogh to kill a tank via direct hit. Kitolov-M is HE-frag, not HEAT.

Regards,

John Kettler

[sburke]

it was only a matter of time

 

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/20/2022 at 8:59 PM, Machor said:

Aaron Stein told what's shooting down the TB2s - are you here?  - It's the Su-35:

 

Machor,

The  missile sponge aspect is the least of the impacts. For starters, RuAF pilots get very little flying time, and their know-how toolkit is extremely limited in terms of what they can do. Free hunt is by far their worst historically in terms of fighter ops. It is, after all, the antithesis of rigid GCI (and these says, maybe MAINSTAY AWACS) control. Consequently, this requires the best and most experienced crews to fly the missions. These, of course, are the senior officers. Noticed how many of these guys are on the running dead and captured list? Not an accident!  These guys are already run ragged and now have a whole new unforeseen problem and a very angry customer screaming for relief from it. And. when people are tired and stressed, the already fundamentally dangerous act of flying a high performance aircraft becomes far more that way. This leads to crashes on the one hand and avoidable downings on the other.

Today's SAMs are not the SA-2s of yore and demand more more in terms of reaction time, proper CM selection and radical evasive maneuvers. Thus, the planes being flown by the best RuAF has in any unit fighting the TBs are not well postured to deal with UKR SAMs or even AAA, given how low the TB2s fly. 

But there's much more to cover.The Su-35 is, by Russian standards, an extremely sophisticated and complex bird, on par, say, with the US F-14A, at best, the F-14D. This is based on F-14 type (stolen) TWS radar, long range AAMs, etc. As of the late 1970s, the readiness rate of the F-14A was a mere 60%, a situation so dire that, in order to conduct strike ops, the US Navy had to rotate assignments between two carriers in the same battle group, with one doing nothing but strike, the other strike escorts and various CAPs. Yes, it was that bad! 

But remember, the RuAF squadron is 12 planes, not the 24 in the US Navy and Air Force, so there's far less resilience to any number of problems, including possibilities of cannibalization to keep planes flying. In turn, an entire aviation regiment of this type is 24 planes, one US squadron equivalent. The maintenance specialists are at regiment, not squadron level. And if an all-out effort to find and kill TB2s is the regimental combat assignment, that's where all the scarce resources and skilled people will be focused, sidelining most of the regiment as a result. In some ways, the Su-35 is even more complicated than even the F-14D, because it has thrust vectoring nozzles. All in all, the logistics and maintenance situation for an Su-35 unit is super demanding in peacetime and perdition defined in war. High tech is simply not the Russian strong suit, and there's much competition for technically qualified staff to keep high complexity, high leverage equipment operational. Those TOPOL-M COs, for. example.

Do you believe the RuAF is immune to the same systemic influences that have tires failing wholesale in the ground units? Do you believe that the Russian spare part situation is better than what the US has? Do you believe their supply chain is more efficient than ours? What is the RuAF fuel situation and near term forecast? How deep is the RuAF Su-35 level flight crew bench? What are the MTBFs for their FCS, engines, fly-by-wire, other avionics, etc.? 

All in all, it seems to me that Ukraine should do anything and everything to flood the sky with drones of every sort and cause the best RuAF units to wear themselves right out of the sky--in combat, in crashes by mechanical or electronic failures, exhaustion of flight crews, landing and takeoff accidents, not to cumulative wear and tear on systems and subsystems with far shorter service lives than, say, US aircraft of the same type. How well do unexpended missiles handle repeated takeoff and landing cycles? Crew burnout requires weeks of rest, might I add, to fix. The Soviets learned this the hard way in North Korea. But it's not just the aircrews that get exhausted, but the crew chiefs, techs, planners, tower personnel and more, with the resulting loss of efficiency, attention to detail, decision making and. more. The best pilots in the world can't fly if their crew chiefs and underlings can't function.

Regards,

John Kettler


 

Edited March 23, 2022 by John Kettler

[Machor]

11 hours ago, John Kettler said:

akd,

Went back and checked. There's nothing listed in any of the writeups regarding thermals or FLIR on even the 2s6M1. If you have a source showing thermals on any Tunguska version, please post it.

Regards,

John Kettler

I was able to find this:

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-96K6-Pantsir-2K22-Tunguska.html

"Early variants of the Tunguska series introduced an electroptical tracker to provide silent angle tracking in jamming environments. The electro-optical tracking system includes a longwave (8 - 14 μm band) thermal imager for target acquisition and tracking, and a dual band short (3 - 5 μm) / midwave  (0.6 -1.1. μm) IR tracker for angular measurement of the missile beacon."

Then, there is this video:

What is your take on the screen at 2:45-48?

(Out of 'likes' today; will give one tomorrow to your Su-35 vs. TB2 commentary.) 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Splinty said:

I'm beginning to suspect that many of these Majors were in the vicinity of Colonels and/or Generals at the time of their demise.

That was what some of the information posted by the Ukrainian General Staff and others suggested.  Which means either Ukraine got lucky and pounded one or two CPs at just the right time or they had intel that helped them pound it at the right time. Given the sloppy OPSEC on the Russian side and (seemingly) good intercepts on the Ukrainian side, I'm thinking the attacks were timed for maximum impact.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

I have seen first video of seperatist saying Ukr soldiers came to them to surrender while filming a line of 7 shot up bodies

Sadly, this is only the tip of the iceberg on this sort of atrocity.  Criminals on one side and their victims on the other does not leave much room for following the rules of war.

Steve

[Machor]

6 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Thank you for the edit. I didn’t realize that it stopped being referred to as “The Ukraine” in 1991 after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Obviously, 40 plus years of correctly calling it “The Ukraine” is a difficult habit to break, especially for someone my age.

'The Ukraine' was simply in line with the colonial tradition of referring to territories, e.g. 'the Caucasus,' 'the Congo,' 'the Sudan.' This continues to this day with a linguistic conflict in Russian, where your choice of preposition for 'in Ukraine' reflects whether you consider it a territory or a nation.

[dan/california]

Ukrainians have been VERY disciplined so far about treating POWs well. That is only going to get more difficult to maintain as the entire Russian strategy becomes being as barbaric as possible. 

[Machor]

Let's switch on Russian TV:  & 

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 11:34 AM, Haiduk said:

UKR 2S7 Pion in action

 

Haiduk,

Propose we call the UA Pions Haiduk's pets. A most impressive sight seeing them in action, but oh, are they utterly exposed!

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 12:24 PM, akd said:

Russian drone videos of strike at Kyiv mall:

 

akd,

Most impressive drone surveillance, target generation and strike work! Decent res color adds phenomenally to the ability to extract usable information vs the same res in B/W.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Machor]

The Russians have brought out the Tachanka: Maxim mounted on tuk-tuk:

 

[BletchleyGeek]

6 minutes ago, Machor said:

Let's switch on Russian TV:  & 

 

Maybe those gentlemen should consider volunteering to jump on a T-72A fresh out of mothballs and try open up that overland corridor to Kaliningrad, if they are so incensed. I also found amusing referring to the opening of such overland corridor as a "local military operation", easier than the "special military operation" in Ukraine. At least there was a member of the panel that clearly had no words.

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Machor said:

Let's switch on Russian TV:  & 

 

lol "faster than we can handle what we started in Ukraine"

Well that is setting the bar low considering it seems they will NEVER achieve their aims in Ukraine.  Somebody needs to haul him away with a tractor.

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 1:18 PM, akd said:

Destroying Russian tanks makes Tatiana smile:

 

akd,

Had no idea the UA had female soldiers on the front line. Wow! Believe this video should be slipped into all Russian video channels, for it would assuredly have a demoralizing effect, starting with the whole machismo nightmare of being beaten by a girl. It also speaks volumes about UA morale and willingness to defend the Motherland.

Regards,

John Kettler