How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said:

Obviously that is because the Russians are not nasty nazis and don't want to make "war porn"... either that or they suck at hitting, I guess.

The "suck" part, is the most convincing

[Kinophile]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Whatever is killing them, these guys are very close to the frontlines.  Experts who study how the Russian chains of command work have speculated that they are more forward than they ordinarily would be and the possible reason for that is they are having to sort out problems personally.

And, as we're all aware, there's multiple reports of RUS battalion/brigade level commanders (and above) remaining very far behind the lines, with their units then getting kicked around and the response/reactions being delayed by that distance.

So, if you're a RUS commander committed to advancing you'll come forward to push things along. Which yes, will happen, but RUS tactical opsec seems atrocious so your position/presence will be noted and then you'll be quickly snotted out (like the human booger you are).

Which is great for UKR - things are so dangerous (both from effective UKR and crappy RUS discipline/methods) that the bad RUS leaders hold back, stay safe while the hard-workers move forward and are eventually taken out.

There's only so many hard-workers in any organization, and even less in something like the Russian Army, so eventually the leadership attrition takes effect. This leads to defensiveness, static mindsets, timid tactics, and as noted previously on another page, a dearth of ideas.

This is bad in itself but triply so when facing a highly motivated, tech savvy and effective enemy, who has focussed intensively on Small/Medium Unit Leadership over the last eight years. Those SMULs (tm) are now fighting and moving up the UKR command ladder, in direct opposition to RUS SMUL movement (I think).

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

and Russian are practically entirely tied to rail supply. If this continues the Kiev front WILL COLLAPSE in matter of weeks just because of the supply situation.

[Armorgunner]

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I want to add. There is time of massive invasion and Russian advance is finished. All 100 % and already even some more Russian troops entered in Ukraine. They stuck and turn to defense or conduct heavy assault actions or active probes around some cities. So, there is a time of large columnes is gone until no decisive advance. Only small groups of vehicles now on the road 

Several examples of ambushes of last days:

Chernihiv oblast - abandoned BMP-2 and MTLB

Night hunting of SOF results

besides calling the MT-LB, for a BMP. What do they say?

[dan/california]

A rebellion against Lukashenko is THE way to end this quickly. The whole Russian position becomes untenable instantly if Lukashenko gets introduced to lamp post.

 

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

and Russian are practically entirely tied to rail supply. If this continues the Kiev front WILL COLLAPSE in matter of weeks just because of the supply situation.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, dan/california said:

A rebellion against Lukashenko is THE way to end this quickly. The whole Russian position becomes untenable instantly if Lukashenko gets introduced to lamp post.

 

 

Indeed, if something like the 2020 protests were to happen now. Very bad situation for the Kremlin.

And this is a real possibility.

[Vet 0369]

51 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

I believe most, if not all, embassies have moved from Kiev to Lvov.

Well, since the post that I quoted said that “11 diplomats and the Belarus Ambassador have LEFT THE COUNTRY” (cap emphasis is mine), I’m assuming that the Belarus Embassy is not “relocating” to Lvov.

[dan/california]

Belorussian military brass needs to be offered solid gold retirement packages in south America, different passports, immunity for no doubt numerous past misdeeds, the whole bit. 

[Armorgunner]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Indeed, if something like the 2020 protests were to happen now. Very bad situation for the Kremlin.

And this is a real possibility.

Just wait! when all the parents, of of the young russian conscripts (who went on exercise). Understand that they are not comming back, but in a black plastic bodybag. I think it will be enormous protests in Russia? 

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

besides calling the MT-LB, for a BMP. What do they say?

They are just joking about future crisis and prices falling on the scrap metal market )

 

Probably first footage of destroyed Russian vehicles from Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukraianian troops hold positions in Vasylivka - Huliaypole area

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Armorgunner]

You cant cover up 25.000 dead as accidents, as they are use to!

[Vet 0369]

28 minutes ago, kraze said:

Are you saying that some kinda russian black ops, who always completely and royally mess up every thing they do (see literally anything in Europe) - would they suddenly be that smooth in killing their own high profile commanders, who are surrounded by troops at all times?

I for one will never assume that someone is “incapable” of doing anything. If you gives monkey a typewriter, it’s bound to hit the right key sometimes. For those of you who are too young to have used a typewriter, it was the keyboard that we used before they were connected to computers.

[Erwin]

24 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

and Russian are practically entirely tied to rail supply. If this continues the Kiev front WILL COLLAPSE in matter of weeks just because of the supply situation.

Brilliant move...    

Also from WSJ a great comment that puts the big picture in context:

"Russia can't be the only target, because it is being propped up by China. China has become, in effect, Russia's partner and its bank. Not just money, but barter--China now has long term contracts for wheat and oil from Russia. In exchange for financial support. China will win here, even if Russia loses. When Putin is disgraced--and he's right on the cusp right now,--China will simply collect from Russia in kind. Like the loan shark foreclosing on the small time gambler, China will take what it wants from Russia, because Russia has nowhere else to turn. So China is our real enemy and we need to recognize that.

Second, the world is not united against Putin or Russia. It is rudderless. And we should never confuse a lack of direction with united resistance. For the last 80 years at least, the world has looked to a muscular United States to provide direction--and leadership. NATO, in particular, is not united--it is a collection of countries each pursuing its own direction. The fact they are acting in unison is a function of their fear. The world resembles more a school of fish all fleeing the same threat, than a a pride of lions attacking its prey."

[Haiduk]

TOS-1 fires

 

[Erwin]

...Talk about the dangers of "brush fire season"...  

[Vet 0369]

27 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

and Russian are practically entirely tied to rail supply. If this continues the Kiev front WILL COLLAPSE in matter of weeks just because of the supply situation.

Excellent! Just like the Dutch/Belgian “Ghost Train” in WWII!

[Haiduk]

Javelin launch at...something. Probably at the truck or armored car - the soldier cries "Yeah! Directly in the cabin!"

 

 

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Just wait! when all the parents, of of the young russian conscripts (who went on exercise). Understand that they are not comming back, but in a black plastic bodybag. I think it will be enormous protests in Russia? 

No.

[keas66]

Off topic from the purely military side of things but if this true it is deeply  concerning .

 

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I for one will never assume that someone is “incapable” of doing anything. If you gives monkey a typewriter, it’s bound to hit the right key sometimes. For those of you who are too young to have used a typewriter, it was the keyboard that we used before they were connected to computers.

Nah.

Those generals - they are all relatives/childhood friends of other very high ranking government members and other generals.

That's how russian corruption works. It's a very tight clan with ties over skills.

If putin was to ever order the killings - he'd face a real chance of a military coup.

Because killing one guy is one thing, but whacking 5 is just walking the edge of the razor.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

Off topic from the purely military side of things but if this true it is deeply  concerning .

 

The Russians DESERVE to die in melting AFVs...

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Off topic from the purely military side of things but if this true it is deeply  concerning .

 

That's standard for russians. They did massive deportations of Donbass population to the deep north, Syberia, etc.

Hundreds of thousands of people were forcibly moved to far regions of Russia over 8 years.

Which is the same thing they were doing 100 years ago

Edited March 19, 2022 by kraze

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm sure this is only a portion of the column, so that's probably part of it.  However, it still seems a rather odd mixture of tactical ground fighting vehicles with more specialized support vehicles.  In some cases the wrecks are next to each other, which indicates that was their march order.

One theory that just popped into my head is separate columns are getting intermingled at intersections due to poor traffic control.  Another is that the columns started out well organized but after various scares or attacks are not being properly reorganized before continuing.

Steve

The Russian BTGs are kind of a hodgepodge of all of those types of vehicles. So, I'm not surprised to see them destroyed near each other, if caught on the move. Otherwise, I'd expect the resupply, indirect fire, and air defense vehicles to be "in the rear" (wherever that may be).

[Haiduk]

Russian social networks confirmed next high-ranked deaths

Colonel Sergey Savvateeyev, deputy commander of Rosgvardia SOBR special police detachment of Vladimir oblast. Killed 3rd of March near Kharkiv during the column strike. You should remember that huge column and police shields in the trucks.

 

AAAANNNND... Drumrollll.. Deputy for human resourses of Black Sea Fleet commander, captain ot 1st rank (=colonel) Andrei Paliy

 

 

Edited March 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[ASL Veteran]

39 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Well, since the post that I quoted said that “11 diplomats and the Belarus Ambassador have LEFT THE COUNTRY” (cap emphasis is mine), I’m assuming that the Belarus Embassy is not “relocating” to Lvov.

No, but they would most likely be leaving the country FROM Lvov and not Kiev, so your point about them leaving Kiev because they think it's about to be attacked would be invalid - that's what my point was.  Of course, if they remained behind in Kiev for some reason or another after all the other diplomatic missions left, then your suggestion might be a valid one.