Kinophile Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Not to derail the current fascinating direction of this thread, but ref Putin's support: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vRVNQODc5NDg3NzMxNw/episode/ZjQ2NGRhZDYtNWQxOC0xMWVjLTgwMjAtZGY5ZmEzZjExMmUy?ep=14 Essentially, Putler's support is certainly not the ridiculous high levels the state says it is, but he absolutely has a strong core, c c45% no matter what he does. So until that core drops below 30%... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, DesertFox said: I think people should be aware what kind of bull russian state TV is spreading. Lunatics! https://comb.io/RBzyR4 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Ooo, that is an other good one. Hey, I get it the Russians are lying every time their lips move. But I am on the lookout for that "no other choice bit". So softening of strategic bargaining position + up to 20% of invasion forces lost and stacking + zero real gains on the ground + economic hellstorm + now coming hat in hand to China = signs that this thing may crumbling strategically faster than we thought (remember - "Russians will grind for months" narrative?). Guess we will see, hopefully soon and does not include some desperate WMD nonsense. On your last point, I've been relentlessly arguing that the nuke/wmd issue is overblown in the sense that there's no "Hulk, smash!....wave hands....success!!!" move Russia can make that magically resolves things their way. I can see Putin amping up the frightfulness out of desperation but there's no analytical progression that gets him to a win via irradiating or poisoning a Ukrainian city. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Kinophile said: Not to derail the current fascinating direction of this thread, but ref Putin's support: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vRVNQODc5NDg3NzMxNw/episode/ZjQ2NGRhZDYtNWQxOC0xMWVjLTgwMjAtZGY5ZmEzZjExMmUy?ep=14 Essentially, Putler's support is certainly not the ridiculous high levels the state says it is, but he absolutely has a strong core, c c45% no matter what he does. So until that core drops below 30%... I don't think polling figures of support is what will get Putin. It will be those sycophants around him deciding he is more of a - than a + and causing him to have a "medical mishap" out of a 5th floor window. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Just now, sburke said: I don't think polling figures of support is what will get Putin. It will be those sycophants around him deciding he is more of a - than a + and causing him to have a "medical mishap" out of a 5th floor window. Oh absolutely, these would be purely indicative and reflective of an fait accompli. Public opinion doesn't really matter in Russia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) 15 minutes ago, sburke said: Haiduk this was from AFP. Is this the previous incident is this the same engagement reported in this twitter video? According to several Ukrainian soldiers, at least two Russian vehicles, one of them a tank, were destroyed -- which the video appears to support -- and a Russian tank commander was killed. On the Ukrainian side, "we had five wounded, one of whom is in a critical condition", after the Russian side opened fire in response, says one soldier, Ilya Berezenko, 27. Looks like this one. Probably this group had a task to hit the tank of regiment commander and they completed it. Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, billbindc said: On your last point, I've been relentlessly arguing that the nuke/wmd issue is overblown in the sense that there's no "Hulk, smash!....wave hands....success!!!" move Russia can make that magically resolves things their way. I can see Putin amping up the frightfulness out of desperation but there's no analytical progression that gets him to a win via irradiating or poisoning a Ukrainian city. It is a long shot but Putin has crossed every line we ever thought he would not, including a full scale invasion scenario that is trying to unfold. I do not believe that all war is rational, too much history is on side with that, in this Clausewitz missed the boat somewhat, or perhaps to be kinder relative rationality is at play. So WMDs - Will it work? Short of a tactical nuclear weapon or higher, doubt it. Chemical is bad but places like Mariupole are already a level in hell so gassing civilian is worse but I do not think it will break the resolve of the Ukrainian people, in fact it may very well have the opposite effect. Hell, at this point I am not even sure tac nukes would do much. Further the Russian logistics mess will only be made worse by making the battlefield dirty, they thought they were having fun before. - Is Putin deluded enough to try? I honestly do not know. I am starting to align with "he has lost the bubble" here somewhere and is starting to behave irrationally...invasion of another European state was kinda the first hint. If boxed in and desperate enough, will the same mind that came up with this first nut-job plan start pushing buttons...maybe...gotta go with maybe. - Will Russian military go along with a WMD. Oh my, here things do get interesting. I am not so sure to be honest. Even the most devoted Russian general, complete with Putin pajamas and teddy bear, is going to think twice before stepping down that path and even if they do not, lower level commanders are going to. Why...? - Because the possible response from the west. A WMD release on civilian centers, or even on a military target might just get the West off the couch. Sanctions will be permanent and this may even take Russian oil and gas off the table. A WMD will trigger western military action, the question is how much...and seriously I do not know. Things get so slippery at that point, that a naval strike group in Romanian waters can turn into WW3 pretty quick. No fly zone? R2P cuts both ways and no Russian general wants to face down NATO. Edited March 13, 2022 by The_Capt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Ok so let's break this down then. A. I know there are systems out there in development but hitting a small fast moving missile is incredibly hard and the next gen of smart AT systems will likely include stealth/spoofing, top-down EFP and PGM DPICM artillery. This will likely continue to counter/counter-counter systems race that has in reality been going on for decades. Problem is that explosive technology and miniaturization or on the side of the attacker and not the defender because the defender is attached to 70 tons of metal. There also becomes a return on investment issue as it will become so costly to keep a tank alive, one has to ask what the point of doing it becomes. They basically become land ships that are impossible to hide and draw more fire than they are worth. B. Sure...obviously. But again very hard to do as missile systems become cheaper and smaller. We could not keep AT out of the hands of the Taliban, let alone the next crunch we get into where now China and Russia are supplying the next-gen ATGMs to our adversaries. C. Every western military has identified UAV as a major issue in the coming years. The idea that we can sweep them from the skies is not realistic. Particularly when we could be seeing hybrid UGV/UAV systems. All military grade systems are going to be shielded from EMP/EW, or fully autonomous so the link between pilot and system need only be occasional (enter ethical issues but this will be a race to the bottom). Wishing away UVs of all shapes and sizes with some sort of magic gun is right next to wishing away machine guns. We will need to learn to live with them and exploit their strengths better than an opponent. D. Disagree. What proof is there that connected light infantry need civilian populations to work? That is how it is working in Ukraine but so what? We have had light infantry operating all over the world without civilian support, we call them SOF. Western militaries are investing a lot into field networks so keeping small light groups linked in a hostile environment is already on the menu. I think the questions are "how much and where?" E. Kinda runs counter to point C but I didn't think that one was accurate anyway. This is not what we are seeing in Ukraine right now. The basic reality is that light is still a thing because 1) it is fast to project, 2) it can go places mech cannot and 3) it is harder to find because it is not riding on thousands of tons of steel. It main weakness was low payloads which restricted lethality and sustainment when separated, and survivability once it did get found (again offset by dispersion). Lights ability to disperse and swarm could increase its survivability versus heavier forces in a totally illuminated battlefield whereas heavy is a relatively slow moving, very visible target. The reality is that this is not going to happen over night but these are questions that need some serious re-think and we cannot box them up nicely in "well sure Ukraine but..." Some of this has been a long time coming, we had the most powerful mechanized forces in the world and they largely proved less than decisive for the last 20 years un the unconventional fights we have been engaged in. Now we are seeing a hybrid/conventional war and there are some weird things happening here too. I have already heard army types going "ah ha, at last a real war, see we need tanks". Then as I look at the list of Russian tank losses and the real lack of ground gained, I have to wonder if this is all "dumb Russians" or something else is not going on. Wow, you just laid out Combat Mission Future Shock in one perfectly composed page. Steve, can you add your usual layer of magic and get this over to Charles straight away? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, DesertFox said: I think people should be aware what kind of bull russian state TV is spreading. Lunatics! I've read news in local Russian media about "heroical death" of tank company comander during the attack of nuclear plant in Energodar. There was written "he got heroically lost, defending nuclear plant from attempt of "nationalists" to seize it in order to threat to peaceful citizens of Ukraine" Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commanderski Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hister Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Quote “Traces of explosives and clues suggesting that this was not a reconnaissance aircraft were found. We found parts of an air bomb,” Croatian Defense Minister Mario Banozic said at the crash site." https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/official-drone-crashed-croatia-carried-bomb-83421615 Does this change anything in regards to which side is the most likely owner of the Tu-141? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, DesertFox said: I think people should be aware what kind of bull russian state TV is spreading. Lunatics! Most of which might happen as a RESULT of this little military fiasco. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Kadyrov's recon squad was ambushed. Some of their equipment partially off-road car, upgraded AK-103 with RDS, GM-94 grenade launcher, specially developed in Russian in 90th years as universal weapon for special forces of Internal troops (now Rosgvardia) - both for urban combat (HE, HEAT and thermobaric grenades) and police work (tear-gas grenades and rubber bullets). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) Haiduk, The first time I ever saw imagery of the specialized ECW vehicles, my immediate reaction was that they looked like a lift of the Haglunds BV-206. On a separate note, I agree with DesertFox on the particulars of things like the mobile bridge, which was not the latest version but the smaller earlier one. The real issue is that assets held way up the echelons are being destroyed or captured at all; that he sees this as a sign of a serious problem in the Russian operations. Classically, Russian bridges have substantial guard forces, sometimes armor and usually AD to protect them, so what we saw happen shouldn't have happened. The loss of such high level vital assets is a huge telltale of organizational breakdown and loss of control. Regards, John Kettler Edited March 13, 2022 by John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 "something something russian was ambushed" several times a day - journos seem to be painting that map red with a wrong kind of paint, if you know what I mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, The_Capt said: It is a long shot but Putin has crossed every line we ever thought he would not, including a full scale invasion scenario that is trying to unfold. I do not believe that all war is rational, too much history is on side with that, in this Clausewitz missed the boat somewhat, or perhaps to be kinder relative rationality is at play. So WMDs - Will it work? Short of a tactical nuclear weapon or higher, doubt it. Chemical is bad but places like Mariupole are already a level in hell so gassing civilian is worse but I do not think it will break the resolve of the Ukrainian people, in fact it may very well have the opposite effect. Hell, at this point I am not even sure tac nukes would do much. Further the Russian logistics mess will only be made worse by making the battlefield dirty, they thought they were having fun before. - Is Putin deluded enough to try? I honestly do not know. I am starting to align with "he has lost the bubble" here somewhere and is starting to behave irrationally...invasion of another European state was kinda the first hint. If boxed in and desperate enough, will the same mind that came up with this first nut-job plan start pushing buttons...maybe...gotta go with maybe. - Will Russian military go along with a WMD. Oh my, here things do get interesting. I am not so sure to be honest. Even the most devoted Russian general, complete with Putin pajamas and teddy bear, is going to think twice before stepping down that path and even if they do not, lower level commanders are going to. Why...? - Because the possible response from the west. A WMD release on civilian centers, or even on a military target might just get the West off the couch. Sanctions will be permanent and this may even take Russian oil and gas off the table. A WMD will trigger western military action, the question is how much...and seriously I do not know. Things get so slippery at that point, that a naval strike group in Romanian waters can turn into WW3 pretty quick. No fly zone? R2P cuts both ways and no Russian general wants to face down NATO. You break it down precisely: Putin crosses lines, Putin is deluded and Putin is or soon will be desperate. I would counter: 1. Up until a week ago, there was plenty of evidence and a broad consensus that Putin was quite calculating. I think that there's an over correction happening right now to that thesis. One huge miscalculation is not something to dismiss but it doesn't mean that he's suddenly become incapable of rationally analyzing his options. 2. I think Putin certainly had bad information and much of it self inflicted/systemic. It is very clear that those misconceptions have been dispelled by application of Ukrainians introducing Russkiy Mir to Saint Javelin. Back to 1 above. 3. Putin *will* be desperate but that doesn't mean he can't survive a loss at least in the short run. As noted elsewhere in this thread, Milosevic did so (until he made another serious mistake) in part because he wasn't seriously challenged with the system he controlled. Putin is in a similar place with respect to control and if nothing else, Putin is a survivor. I can't see him immolating himself, his family, his imperial idee fixe by escalating beyond control. Mistakes can be made, accident happen, etc but I am pretty sure we aren't going to be climbing much higher on the escalation ladder (or taking the escalation slide, or whatever else the kids call it these days). Thanks for the engagement. Slava Ukrainyi, etc and so forth. Edited March 13, 2022 by billbindc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Fail This is what Kira Rudik, People's Deputy of Ukraine, has to say to this matter: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 6 hours ago, The_Capt said: (https://prodev2go.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/rus-ukr-lessons-draft.pdf, pages 12-17 really get into UAV and lethal fires Thanks CAPT!! I read that document you linked and anyone without much knowledge of the actions in 2014-5 should also take the time to read it. Learned a lot and the last 5 pages of lessons learned were spot on. What we are seeing now definitely confirms almost everything he wrote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
db_zero Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, DesertFox said: This is what Kira Rudik, People's Deputy of Ukraine, has to say to this matter: China abstained from the condemnation vote and refused to supply spare parts for Aeroflot. Find it hard to believe they will send military support. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commanderski Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, db_zero said: Find it hard to believe they will send military support. Based on what they saw of Russia's equipment they may be doing a review of what they have before they decide to do anything. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Video has subtitles. Some nice propaganda from Moshchun, outskirts of Kiev. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) Short film about battle for Moshchun village of 12th of March - this is with English subtitles. SOF participates - they use 60 mm mortar, also DJI Mavic 2. Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) Bayraktar hit Russian arillery command vehcile (but this is not simalar to 1V13/14/15 vehicles) Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Mariupol, March 12: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) I guess we shall know by tomorrow, but if true this is a huge blow for the Iwans. Edited March 13, 2022 by DesertFox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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