How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[John Kettler]

18 hours ago, womble said:

Who, though, will be beseiging whom? The Russians are struggling to hold any place their troops actually aren't. Their way of siege requires massive tonnages of HE, or, to "circumvallate" the target built-up area, and reduce it by starvation, they need a tight ring to close off resupply, and that takes supply for the troops and their equipment. And the defenders of the city have systems like Grad that they can use to bleed the beseiging forces in ways that weren't available to the Syrian rebels in Aleppo and elsewhere. Not to mention the general attrition from a furious local population.

So, to make a siege work, the Russians have to defend their own supply lines and defend themselves from a fiercely motivated enemy with the freedom to maneuver on their static positions of siege. Currently, it doesn't look like they're capable of that.

The same applies to holding on to what they've "taken" in the south. For a "chain of firebases" to work, they need to be able to dominate everywhere that can fire on the supply routes that link them. And the Ukrainians have weapons that the VC/NVA and Muj would have salivated over, and can be provided with even more potent weapons if required, by the anti-Russian-aggression alliance. Using thermobarics or other grid-square deleters, on an enemy firebase dominating a ridgeline and the valleys either side, for example, is a legitimate usage in time of war, isn't it? There's no way the Russians can protect their own static positions from UKR ranged assets given the information advantage that the UA has.

womble,

Please read those first three letters from that FSB guy that akd posted. Found them extremely credible, and you'll see that the Russians are in no position to do what you suggest. They can't supply what's already in-country, their comms are in collapse, and they don't know, to within a factor of five, what their own KIA are. Further, he says that if they send in more troops, not only won't they be able to supply them, that it'll greaten worsen current logistics, but the new arrivals will wind up in areas where the territorial defense forces have had two weeks to fortify, prepare and get ready to kill them. From where he sits, he sees not just the Russian Army about to implode, but the Russian State, starting with the already collapsing economy.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[womble]

4 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

womble,

Please read those first three letters from that FSB guy that akd posted. Found them extremely credible, and you'll see that the Russians are in no position to do what you suggest. They can't supply what's already in-country, their comms are in collapse, and they don't know, to within a factor of five, what their own KIA are. Further, he says that if they send in more troops, not only won't they be able to supply them, that it'll greaten worsen current logistics, but the new arrivals will wind up in areas where the territorial defense forces have had two weeks to fortify, prepare and get ready to kill them. From where he sits, he sees not just the Russian Army about to implode, but the Russian State, starting with the already collapsing economy.

Regards,

John Kettler

If you read what I wrote, that's exactly the point I'm making. The "siege of Kyiv" won't be a full encirclement. Which means that, since they can't reasonably take it street-by-street, FIUH, their only option is to level it a block at a time with their heavy artillery. And there are suggestions that their logistics, from the factory gate, via the arsenals to the front, simply isn't up to that, in the face of the Ukrainian resistance, either.

[John Kettler]

18 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

DesertFox,

The US began supplying Ukraine with night vision equipment way back under Obama. No idea how many sets were delivered then or since, but it doesn't surprise me the UA would have NVGs or better, especially the SO types.

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/JU/JU00/20191211/110331/HMKP-116-JU00-20191211-SD994.pdf

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Two more Bayraktar strikes. First target probably Uragan MLRS launcher

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

DesertFox,

The US began supplying Ukraine with night vision equipment way back under Obama. No idea how many sets were delivered then or since, but it doesn't have me the UA would have NVGs or better, especially the SO types.

Since 2016 we got several thousands of AN/PVS-14, not counting several hundreds older Canadian PVS-7. Also volunteers supply troops with different commercial devices

[John Kettler]

16 hours ago, db_zero said:

RE:expired Russian MRE's.  While not a good look, in general packaged food is usually good past its expiration date-at least that's what Ive gathered in food stuff produced in the western world. I have some MRE's, canned goods and survival food that are way past expiration date and I occasionally open one and eat and its fine to me.

I've seen figures of 5-10 or even more years past the expiration date where food is still good. Depends on what the product is too. Spam will probably last past your lifetime...

Russian products may not have the same level of quality control and with corruption being so widespread and rampant in Russia those MREs with an expiration date of 2015 could be a batch made far earlier and repackaged and just stamped with 2015.

Who knows. Maybe someone can gather some up and send them to one of the youtuber who eat them and compare them and give one of these expired MREs a taste test.

db-zero,

In the Vietnam War, US troops were still eating C-rations and K-rations from World War II, and that YTer who unboxes and eats MREs from all around the world on one episode (don't recall date) ate a 1944 C-ration, I believe. Brother George, an Army Scout, ate K-rations for sure and was in the Army as it transitioned to MREs and later improved ones. Had the chicken a la king (widely deemed the best of the early MREs and found it not just awful but impossibly salty. This was while visiting him with my dad at NTC in 1980. Now, Russian real MRE shelf life may not be as good as ours, but while no one wants to eat food that's seven years expired, I doubt it'll be inedible. Contrariwise, maybe the expired MREs will cause all sorts of food poisoning. Might be worthwhile to secure a few and run some lab tests. The resulting findings might just have real significance from an intelligence perspective.

Regards,

John Kettler





 

[John Kettler]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

All the people, including experts, who keep insisting that Russia has a practical option for siege warfare are missing a critical component necessary for it... the ABILITY TO SUSTAIN THE SIEGE.  Russia doesn't have it.  Not now and certainly in weeks or months to come.

Look at all the death and destruction that Ukraine is able to rain on Russians already in Ukraine.  Do you think the Ukrainians will stop attacking?  Of course not. 

Every loss the Russians suffer is a loss they can not easily replace.  Especially equipment.  On the Ukrainian side, this is not the case.  Light infantry with trainloads of AT weapons provided by NATO is all Ukraine needs to beat the Russians.  With nearly 100,000 new light infantry coming into being very soon, Ukrainian forces will OUTNUMBER the Russians.

Ukraine can freely range in Russia's rear areas with the full support of the civilian population.  It doesn't need roads to operate either.  Soon there could be more Ukrainians moving around shooting up the Russian rear than the Russians have manning the frontline!

While all of this is going the Russians will need to keep up their fighting spirit.  Their morale is obviously very low now and there's no way it will get better with static warfare and daily ambushes.

The Russians will also require an amount of logistical support that is vastly greater than what they have going on now.  Any signs of them being able to handle it?  No, none at all.

And lastly... a nation can not maintain a large fighting force if it experiences a financial and structural internal failure at home.  Think Germany 1918.  If the homefront collapses, the war is over.

You guys are probably all sick of me saying this but RUSSIA HAS ALREADY LOST THE WAR.  It is just a matter of time to see how exactly it ends.

Steve

Steve,

Since each BTG has only three tankers, maybe we should track such losses in terms of their impact on BTG ops. As a case in point, that incorrectly labeled post TB2 strike pic showed no fewer than 6 fuel trucks obliterated by UA artillery, so 2 x BTG fills lost there alone. Do we know how many fuel trucks the various formations in the Russian Army have? If so, we could figure out how much or how little fuel redundancy it has, but that said, we must also watch out for field pipelines being built by the pioneers. Have seen nothing on this matter. Also, the Russians use the same sort of helicopter deliverable fuel blivets we introduced back during the Vietnam War, so again, they don't necessarily have to force fuel trucks through the junior Highway of Death near Kviv. Of course, a big helo with a fuel blivet dangling underneath would be a grand MANPADS target.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Splinty]

10 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

db-zero,

In the Vietnam War, US troops were still eating C-rations and K-rations from World War II, and that YTer who unboxes and eats MREs from all around the world on one episode (don't recall date) ate a 1944 C-ration, I believe. Brother George, an Army Scout, ate K-rations for sure and was in the Army as it transitioned to MREs and later improved ones. Had the chicken a la king (widely deemed the best of the early MREs and found it not just awful but impossibly salty. This was while visiting him with my dad at NTC in 1980. Now, Russian real MRE shelf life may not be as good as ours, but while no one wants to eat food that's seven years expired, I doubt it'll be inedible. Contrariwise, maybe the expired MREs will cause all sorts of food poisoning. Might be worthwhile to secure a few and run some lab tests. The resulting findings might just have real significance from an intelligence perspective.

Regards,

John Kettler





 

No one, and I mean NO ONE who I knew during the introduction of the original MREs thought Chicken a la King was the best of anything. It looked and smelled like dogs vomit. 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russia issued a video of first helicopter landing and assault of Hostomel airfield 24th of February. There is no combat on the video, but there are some abandoned trucks and Varta MRAP of 4th National Guard Operative brigade

 

Most of these men are dead or captured.

[John Kettler]

18 hours ago, akd said:

Ammo supplies captured from Russians (including BM15 APFSDS):

 

akd,

If that ammo mix pic fairly reflects the ammo type spit in the current Russian loadout, then it means the Russian tanks are very poorly equipped vs tanks, especially since I see no CLGMs, either. Want to say the Cold War split was 20% KE and 80% HE-frag, but there were a few rounds of HEAT, too. But the important thing here is that even the Cold War load was primarily geared toward dealing with infantry, field fortifications and structures, not tanks. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Taranis]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Most of these men are dead or captured.

Yes, that's what I thought too. And for me, this video marks even more a contrast with the current quality of the Russian army. These VDVs seemed well trained. We see that the tactical progression of the VDVs is still correct on this video contrary to what we can see now. Like what now it is indeed the bottoms of drawers.

[John Kettler]

16 hours ago, Fenris said:

Quoting myself re "TikTok War", just came across this, think the story is from the Washington Post

 

Well, this should be interesting--TikTok hotties and thotties (will NSFW be allowed?) briefing us on TB2 strike results, RuAF shootdowns and the latest Russian outrages. And they thought Dali did surreal stuff!

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Hister]

Glad you guys liked the Julia Ioffe interview. 

 

Will ask again about the TU-142 Strizh incident. What is your take on it, was it more likely operated by Russia or by Ukraine and why you think so? Thanx.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44697/ukrainian-tu-141-strizh-missile-like-drone-appears-to-have-crashed-in-croatia

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Hister

[John Kettler]

13 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Rest assured I have a hell of respect for this ukrainian territorial defense forces. It is just that in my head whenever I hear territorial defense forces I need to think of these guys:

DesertFox,

Loved the show, but would like to remind you the first shootdown of a German aircraft over England was achieved by the Home guard, not the RAF. It was also the Home Guard that fought a ground engagement with a Luftwaffe aircraft's crew as the men simultaneously fought the attackers and frantically worked to destroy a piece of classified equipment. Finally, part of the cast was in the real LDV and successor Home Guard.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, Hister said:

Glad you guys liked the Julia Ioffe interview. 

 

Will ask again about the TU-142 Strizh incident. What is your take on it, was it more likely operated by Russia or by Ukraine and why you think so? Thanx.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44697/ukrainian-tu-141-strizh-missile-like-drone-appears-to-have-crashed-in-croatia

 

Personnaly, I think it is a russian or LNR/DNR action. It could be captured UAVs and used for intels and testing the NATO defenses. Or also a threat to eastern Europe countries. A way to say, "we can hit you when we want". Isn't false flag attacks a speciality of the russians ? It also could be a way for russians to say "you see ukrainians are poor allies", it's ridiculous but everything Russia do since the beginning is ridiculous (eg laboratories, warcrimes, rush, bad logistic etc).

[Artkin]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Uh guys... remember that video of the ambush of the armored column taken from a drone?  Uh... it looks like the Ukrainians have been taking CMBS a bit too literally:

 

WHAT

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Hister said:

Glad you guys liked the Julia Ioffe interview. 

 

Will ask again about the TU-142 Strizh incident. What is your take on it, was it more likely operated by Russia or by Ukraine and why you think so? Thanx.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44697/ukrainian-tu-141-strizh-missile-like-drone-appears-to-have-crashed-in-croatia

 

There is an opinion that was confused objectives for this UAV. It had to fly in Yarun village area in Zhytomyr oblast, but probably in its navigation system were mistakingly eneterd coordinates of Jarun town in Croatia. UAV flew through two countries, WAS NOT SPOTTED BY NATO AIR DEFENSE (or spotted, but without reaction) and fell after the fuel was wasted. Which Tu-141 could belng is an open question. There is no good photos of wreck with markings. Reportedly locals say there was somesing like red stars painting fragments, but there is no photos.

Russia also is operator of Tu-141, but I don't know they really in service (this UAV is good SAM training target, imitating the cruise missile) or in reserve. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Whoever fired it, I’m sure it was intended as an AD decoy / lure.

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

T-72B. This was 6th tank regiment with older tanks.

Haiduk,

Thanks. Went with the listed ID, since my tank ID skills are iffy at best these days, especially in the face of versions which didn't exist during my Soviet Threat Analyst days. Asked you before to recommend a good online English site or book for Russian weaponry ID but never heard back. 

Regards,

John. Kettler

[John Kettler]

13 hours ago, Fenris said:

Drone footage

 

Fenris,

Wasn't smart at all releasing this video with the firing location and vulnerability so excruciatingly apparent. Way too easy to target from, but this also presumes timely release of the video, correct analysis and rapid delivery of counterfire.

Regards,

John Kettler

[BeondTheGrave]

 

[Hister]

32 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Personnaly, I think it is a russian or LNR/DNR action. It could be captured UAVs and used for intels and testing the NATO defenses. Or also a threat to eastern Europe countries. A way to say, "we can hit you when we want". Isn't false flag attacks a speciality of the russians ? It also could be a way for russians to say "you see ukrainians are poor allies", it's ridiculous but everything Russia do since the beginning is ridiculous (eg laboratories, warcrimes, rush, bad logistic etc).

I see. Yeah, crazy stunts Russian side is doing, so lame all the way. So you don't think it could in any way be lunched by Ukrainian side? You discount the option it manfunctioned?

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There is an opinion that was confused objectives for this UAV. It had to fly in Yarun village area in Zhytomyr oblast, but probably in its navigation system were mistakingly eneterd coordinates of Jarun town in Croatia. UAV flew through two countries, WAS NOT SPOTTED BY NATO AIR DEFENSE (or spotted, but without reaction) and fell after the fuel was wasted. Which Tu-141 could belng is an open question. There is no good photos of wreck with markings. Reportedly locals say there was somesing like red stars painting fragments, but there is no photos.

Russia also is operator of Tu-141, but I don't know they really in service (this UAV is good SAM training target, imitating the cruise missile) or in reserve. 

Well, the radars of all nato countries that it flew over spotted it but there was a problem because nato planes didn't scramble meaning it was either  not reported by said countries to nato higherups or it was and nato didn't reapond or something down that line.

20 minutes ago, akd said:

Whoever fired it, I’m sure it was intended as an AD decoy / lure.

What is AD decoy?

 

Thank you all for taking the time. 

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Splinty said:

No one, and I mean NO ONE who I knew during the introduction of the original MREs thought Chicken a la King was the best of anything. It looked and smelled like dogs vomit. 

Never had the pleasure. We were still eating C-Rats when I got out. I think some MREs were JUST showing up when I left, but I never saw one. Some C-Rats weren't too bad if you could heat them up. The problem was that many times we were unable to heat them. There were some that there was just no hope for. Self carried Ramen, SPAM, and Frank's Red Hot were necessities on deployments. Probably still are, too!

The funniest was labeled "Chicken or Turkey, Boned"   (Wait, don't you KNOW?) You'd eat it and the best you could guess was that it was a whitish, tasteless meat. Chicken or turkey? Who knows?

Dave

[John Kettler]

6 hours ago, George MC said:

Hers a link to uncut version with analysis. 

 

George MC,

Many thanks for that uncut video and analysis. Absolutely concur the initial tank hit was from an NLAW, since it's plainly apparent the detonation is right over the turret, the aimpoint users are taught to hit. Since that was apparently the BTG CO's track, find myself wondering whether the NLAW guy knew what to look for so he could target it directly or just that the CO's number was up? Had no idea the BTG CO was in a tank, as was expecting there to be a command track in the sea of MTLB-Ms in the BTG. The ambush's occurring at the same site as in CMBS is "The Twilight Zone™" grade weird.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[BornGinger]

1 hour ago, BeondTheGrave said:

A local deputy in the Kherson region says occupying Russian troops are planning to create another “people’s republic” there.

Seems a bit to how the Soviet commisars appointed local supporters in occupied towns and villages in the Baltic States in 1940s when the Red Army arrived as "liberators".