How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[riptides]

For some odd reason I am drawn to the Russian Generals who must be hearing something similar about their battle groups.

"General, I have no division..."

-Major General George Edward Pickett to General Lee at Gettysburg July 3, 1863

Edited March 7, 2022 by riptides

[womble]

Is the situation around the safe passage corridors for civilians indicative of comms and leadership issues in the RA ranks? It doesn't seem a stretch to imagine that the Red Cross manage to negotiate a safe zone with a command structure but that this command doesn't have any way of "spreading the news" that a given route or gathering point (or whole town) should not be attacked during the specified hours to other formations, so fire keeps coming in.

While it's no surprise that a route was mined, I don't think it necessarily the case that those mines were laid with the intention of killing and maiming innocents. It's not inconceivable that they were just there, and the people arranging the corridor no more knew of their existence than they had the capacity to shut down their whole operational area.

What does the astonishingly ill-judged announcement of "safe corridors" to the invader state or its sadistic little brother say about the Russian command's understanding of the situation?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not exactly.  I saw him moving Russian flagged forces into Donbas and threatening a wider invasion if Ukraine balked at it.  This force would then have got up to no good sooner or later, which in turn would give Russia a pretext for more military action.  Which is by any definition an invasion. 

What I didn't think would happen was a fulls scale war.  It still defies logic that he did, but I think logic is sitting in a holiday dacha somewhere while irrationality is calling he shots in the Kremlin.

I'd also like to say that I never thought that a full invasion was off the table completely, no matter how much I thought Putin wouldn't do it.  Because, you know, it was a REALLY stupid ideal

Steve

To be fair, this was the rational take and so the most prominent one among the people I spoke to up until a couple of weeks ago. And those that had contacts in Russia had plenty of reason to feel affirmed given that almost nobody in Russia really knew or expected it to happen either.

[chris talpas]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

What does the astonishingly ill-judged announcement of "safe corridors" to the invader state or its sadistic little brother say about the Russian command's understanding of the situation?

It seems filled with cruel cynicism.  They know it is a non-starter yet still claim to be offering evacuation corridors.  Almost like Putin's demands of NATO to pull back from Eastern Europe in terms of deployments.

Its almost like they don't want to stop

[DesertFox]

Some more thoughts on logistical matters and the state of affairs for Iwan

 

 

[Fenris]

Speaking of Rasputitsa, this one got posted recently

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/6/2022 at 11:20 AM, Haiduk said:

Russian BMDs, 7 vehicles, abandoned yesterday near Mykolaiv. This was an artillery strike - even close hits forces Russians to disembark and fled. Not all could do it, but I will not post other video with Russian airbornes bodies 

 

This is the video I couldn't recall whether I posted or not with the BMD-2s which had roof mounted ATGMs. During the Cold War, we saw BMP-2s equipped this way, but not BMD-2s.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

T-72B, location unknown

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

During the Cold War, we saw BMP-2s equipped this way, but not BMD-2s.

ATGM launcher always was in BMD-1/2 pack. In 2014 both UKR and Russian BMDs often had mounted ATGMs on turret.

Soviet period photo

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another tank with a red band on its barrel.  I've seen this a couple of times now and also a red stripe on some sort of vehicle (I forget what it was).  Curious.

Steve

[John Kettler]

On 3/6/2022 at 11:40 AM, Haiduk said:

Probably they were out of vehicles - on other video their bodies lay some further. But anyway you should to turn on engine, maneuvre and gain a speed. And all this sitting in the alluminium can under fire... Even side armor of the tank doesn't protect from clsoe hit of 122 mm +. I, think only crack+, high motivated with fanatism can do this, when artillery rounds is impactimg close.

Haiduk,

Our resident physicist *MajorTom?) showed years ago that a Russian 82 mm mortar shell, delivered within a few meters of a BTR-70's side, could obtain multiple penetrations of the armor. Would also note the CIA briefed us in 1985 that GRAD was designed to defeat the US M113 APC, so am not surprised that GRAD or 122 mm tube artillery and greater could demolish BMDs. In live fire tests, the US Army found that 155 mm HE (standing in for Russian 152 mm HE) could wreck tanks and do so firing far fewer rounds, shockingly, than US planning factors dictated.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Baneman]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another tank with a red band on its barrel.  I've seen this a couple of times now and also a red stripe on some sort of vehicle (I forget what it was).  Curious.

Steve

Didn't the Donetsk/Luhansk fighters have red armbands ? Could be connected.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

To be fair, this was the rational take and so the most prominent one among the people I spoke to up until a couple of weeks ago. And those that had contacts in Russia had plenty of reason to feel affirmed given that almost nobody in Russia really knew or expected it to happen either.

Oh for sure I'm not beating myself up for thinking Putin Model 2022 was operating similar to Putin 2014.  Especially because there were several scenarios that would have likely succeeded in putting him incrementally closer to his strategic goals.  And if things didn't turn out exactly like he wanted, he'd have options.  Whereas this horrible war was an all or nothing gamble from the start.  That's been the opposite of Putin's game, so yeah... hard to see how to predict that one until right close to the actual war starting.

BTW, count me in the camp that thinks something is wrong with Putin (well, other than being a mass murdering megalomaniac) either in his brain or the vessel that carries it.  If he has terminal cancer he might have decided to check Ukraine off his bucket list.  If his paranoia got out of control then all kinds of bad things come from that.  Etc.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Didn't the Donetsk/Luhansk fighters have red armbands ? Could be connected.

Yes, though I have it in my head that the other red bands I saw was further north.  Though that could be wrong.  After seeing dozens and dozens of knocked out Russian tanks in the past week they are all kind blurring together!

Steve

[White2Golf]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another tank with a red band on its barrel.  I've seen this a couple of times now and also a red stripe on some sort of vehicle (I forget what it was).  Curious.

Steve

There were reports of an apparent red on red incident.  Maybe this is a poor man's IFF?   Would not help much if using thermals though.  

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, though I have it in my head that the other red bands I saw was further north.  Though that could be wrong.  After seeing dozens and dozens of knocked out Russian tanks in the past week they are all kind blurring together!

Steve

At Sumy, a T90 with red marking on the barrel.

 

 

[billbindc]

Well…it looks like maybe we know why Russia hasn’t blinked out the cell networks in Ukraine: 

 

[Fenris]

The cavalry

 

[DesertFox]

This is interesting intel.

 

 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

This is interesting intel.

 

 

is this the force that's gonna overrun Kharkov?    Yeah I am thinking that isn't likely.

[Fenris]

Yeah, I saw another tweet about that.  Another interesting development if it's true.

[DesertFox]

Visually confirmed vehicle losses:

Russia - 902, of which: destroyed: 358, damaged: 10, abandoned: 150, captured: 382

Ukraine - 272, of which: destroyed: 94, damaged: 4, abandoned: 44, captured: 127

Source: Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)

Twitter: 

 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by DesertFox

[Probus]

Sorry if this is a repost. Hadn’t seen it before. There go the Simpsons predicting the future…

 

[chris talpas]

Wonder if something like this could be an off-ramp?

1. Cease fire put in place, monitored say by the Indians or some other mutually agreeable 3rd party

2. Ukraine becomes officially neutral similar to Switzerland -but like Switzerland is appropriately armed to deter invaders, and like Swizterland be allowed to have vibrant political and economic connections with the European Union and beyond.

3. Internationally monitored referenda in the disputed areas on whether to be independent or remain part of Ukraine If they do become independent, then they too are bound by the neutrality clause forced upon Ukraine.

Eventually #4  Reparations of some sort to rebuild infrastructure   -heck they can spin it into the Georgy Marshallevsky Plan if they like

Edited March 8, 2022 by chris talpas
added political economic EU connection

[Fenris]

24 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Wonder if something like this could be an off-ramp?

1. Cease fire put in place, monitored say by the Indians or some other mutually agreeable 3rd party

2. Ukraine becomes officially neutral similar to Switzerland -but like Switzerland is appropriately armed to deter invaders.

3. Internationally monitored referenda in the disputed areas on whether to be independent or remain part of Ukraine If they do become independent, then they too are bound by the neutrality clause forced upon Ukraine.

Eventually #4  Reparations of some sort to rebuild infrastructure   -heck they can spin it into the Georgy Marshallevsky Plan if they like

 

From my keyboard on the other side of the planet... I get the sense Zelensky would not be willing to give up much of anything now.  It may be wishful thiking on my part but it feels like UKR is starting to get the stronger hand, at least with regards to negotiating.   In a broader picture, (edit - and with strong support from the west) I don't think he should give up anything, I believe it's important that Putin doesn't gain any concessions so that there's a clear rebuff of this sort of adventurism.  There will be other world leaders watching what happens closely and if Putin survives this fiasco it needs to be clear it's not worth trying it again somewhere else.

Edited March 8, 2022 by Fenris