How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Hapless]

Loathe though I am to link anything from Reddit, I can't find this one anywhere else. Sorry in advance:

But, this appears to show SKIF in action- I didn't realise the launcher could be controlled remotely within 50m. That's got so many tactical ramifications.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Hapless

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

They're still making progress. I don't hear about any UKR victories other than constant attrition of equipment and the few/far between local victories. RUS forces are still advancing, still outflanking/encircling UKR forces, still "winning". RUS has steadily added more attrition and territory each day.

Despite the blatant incompetence and stupid operational approach, the RUS FEBA units are still very much in the fight.

I see a Pyrrhic victory, short lived and possibly unsustainable, but it'll be RUS victory all the same.

Look at the collapse of the German Wacht am Rhein for a similar situation.  Germans had strategic objectives for their offensive, not tactical or even operational ones.  They moved forward with a lot of power and surprise, taking a lot of terrain reasonably quickly at first.  But there were plenty of signs that things were going well right from the start.  Took a little while for some of them to have a major impact, but they were there. Yet the Germans kept things up for a couple of weeks, including taking ground.  Then, pretty suddenly, the German's ability to continue fighting collapsed.  The factors against success were just too much.

Sure, the Russians are still making some advances, but overall they aren't any closer to gaining their objectives than they were almost a week ago.  In some places they continue to throw major resources into fighting and simply wind up with a bunch of TikTok videos of their burning or being towed away by tractors.

This war is going absolutely horrible for Russia.  It's already long since lost any hope of winning.  So, ask yourself... if Russia has no chance of winning, what do they have a chance at here?  Stalemate?  Any signs of the Ukrainians allowing that to happen?  Nope.  So we're left with losing as the only realistic outcome for Russia.  It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when and the conditions are already set for that being very soon rather than later.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putins-forces-in-ukraine-war-are-decimated-says-uk-defence-chief-x7khnbfzq?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=ukraine&utm_medium=branded_social

UK MoD is on team Steve.

[John Kettler]

On 3/4/2022 at 3:59 PM, Vet 0369 said:

Very, very powerful “interview!” While the possibilities remain that it was coerced, they look to me to have injuries that can be consistent with battle wounds. Sure, they might be trying to save their own hides, but they were very convincing.

Vet 0369,

What was said early in the expository part was what's known in law as an admission against interest. Had the objective been to protect their own hides, then admitting the means of enforcement were to be arrests, coercion and execution by firing squad seems wholly antithetical to self-preservation. The leader was, IMO, extremely forthright, deeply troubled by what he'd done and was expected to do and highly motivated to save lives and undermine the Putin regime's propaganda designed to bamboozle and manipulate the Russian people to support a fundamentally wrong, unnecessary and spiritually bankrupt war. The other two were veritable clams by comparison and extremely circumspect in what little they did say.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Homo_Ferricus]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This war is going absolutely horrible for Russia.  It's already long since lost any hope of winning.  So, ask yourself... if Russia has no chance of winning, what do they have a chance at here?  Stalemate?  Any signs of the Ukrainians allowing that to happen?  Nope.  So we're left with losing as the only realistic outcome for Russia.  It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when and the conditions are already set for that being very soon rather than later.

Steve

Can Putin tolerate a loss? Is he brilliant enough to spin it into something that he believes won't result in him being toppled?  Leave it to him to find creative solutions, that's why many are freaked out about the nuclear question, including my Russian expat relatives. The important question for us is not how much joy there would if Ukraine were to win, but how much danger is there if Putin were to lose...

Edited March 7, 2022 by Homo_Ferricus

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Can Putin tolerate a loss? Is he brilliant enough to spin it into something that he believes won't result in him being toppled?  Leave it to him to find creative solutions, that's why many are freaked out about the nuclear question, including my Russian expat relatives. The important question for us is not how much joy there would if Ukraine were to win, but how much danger is there if Putin where to lose...

Putin can't push a button by himself.  If he tries to give that order I fully expect someone will vacate his brain pan.

[Kinophile]

@Battlefront.com I think you're underestimating Putin's ruthlessness. He will willing eviscerate his forces and UKR civilian population on the alter of battlefield wins, because he knows that fundamentally NATO will never cross the RUS border. He has an insane internal security apparatus that is fully capable of squashing/redirecting war weariness. RUS artillery is very much still in play and can grind the UKR cities down, effectively treating them as hostages. He just needs to hold on, as does Ukraine, but he has more to lose (personally) and he will not back down. 

A coup/removal is possible, sure. A RUS tactical collapse is possible, sure. But Russia 2022 is not Germany 1944, and I think it's a fallacy to compare them.

[Homo_Ferricus]

Just now, sburke said:

Putin can't push a button by himself.  If he tries to give that order I fully expect someone will vacate his brain pan.

I would agree. Even using a tactical nuke in Ukraine would be an unforgivable sin in the eyes of most ordinary Russians, who have friends or relatives, who have visited, and have other connections there.

[danfrodo]

I just checked weather forecast for south, Kyiv, and Kharkiv.  No rain.  Some light snow, but cooler temperatures.  We need some wet weather.

[John Kettler]

On 3/5/2022 at 3:03 AM, George MC said:

Ground to air seems effective. 

 

Stinger or other frontal aspect capable MANPADS missile fired from very short range (barely out of FOV image right). Definite Mi-24 series helo caught with no time to deploy IRCM. Unable to determine variant because of poor resolution of helo image. Low altitude flight is dangerous for the Russians and rapidly getting much worse, not just because Stingers are in play but because MANPADS are being rapidly fielded in large quantities to the field, but because even lots of low quality ones will put tremendous stress, psychological pressure and heavy stress on the aircraft, too, and that's atop the fundamental dangers of such low level flight, not to mention serious-severe reliability issues. 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com I think you're underestimating Putin's ruthlessness.

Actually, I don't.  In fact, I expect that he'll keep the war going just like Hitler did, not caring at all about friendly losses. But will Putin's forces in Ukraine fight to the death like the German's (mostly) did?  No way.  The Germans were motivated to keep fighting because it was their homeland that was being overrun by people they hated (Eastern Front) or felt were interfering in the real war (Western and Southern Fronts).  In this case the Russians, for the most part, don't want to be in Ukraine in the first place.  They certainly aren't defending their homeland.  Hence low motivation, low morale.

At some point (soon) Putin will be in the same place as Hitler was in his bunker pointing to maps and saying "have this force go here to do this and we'll win the war".  Putin's motivation to keep the war going doesn't mean anything if his forces don't feel the same way.

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 He has an insane internal security apparatus that is fully capable of squashing/redirecting war weariness.

Oh, I for one do not think the FSB is insane at all.  In fact, the FSB is the number one suspect on the list of organizations that might attempt a coup.  I'm not sure they would try it without the military's OK, but if the war keeps going this poorly I think the FSB will have it.

There are some plausible, but not confirmed, information that the FSB is already exploring their options.  Apparently they were left out of the loop with this invasion and they're not happy about it.  Just like the SD in the Third Reich, the FSB is reasonably aware of the real situation even if the glorious leader isn't.

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

A coup/removal is possible, sure. A RUS tactical collapse is possible, sure. But Russia 2022 is not Germany 1944, and I think it's a fallacy to compare them.

Russia is in some ways in a worse position to keep this war going in 2022 than Germany was in 1944.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

  

Two more examples of why Russia can't keep this war going much longer.  First, drone footage of a convoy attack.  According to the text, this is the big convoy north of Kiev:

And every day the Ukrainians will get to take more and more pictures like this before going out and taking more videos of the results:

 

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, akd said:

Rosgvardiya regiment?

Yes, 674th operative purpose regiment of Rosgvardia, Mozok, Northern Osetia. Russians took the idea of operative purpose units from Ukrainain National Guard. This is actually light infantry units with more combat, then law supoprt functins.

[DesertFox]

1000men casualties per day. Let´s see how long they can sustain that.

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by DesertFox

[John Kettler]

BFC,

If possible within. your Forum software, would you please give us a date either along with or instead of the day? The FB style works okay there because most people don't have a lot of posts to deal with in any given time period, whereas we do. Find myself doing mental gymnastics (TBI doesn't help) trying to understand what happened when chronologically.

Thanks!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Butschi]

On 3/3/2022 at 8:24 AM, kraze said:

I guess it's time to throw down all the arms then and stop murdering invaders.

Killing enemy soldiers in battle is usually not considered murder, though.

[akd]

ATGM engagement against Russian tanks from roof of Mykolaiv airport:

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by akd

[womble]

48 minutes ago, dan/california said:

UK MoD is on team Steve.

The Beeb has another (not vastly different AFAICT) take on Admiral Radakin's interview. More content without paywall shenanigans.

[John Kettler]

Wish to further discuss deconfliction. There's more to deconfliction than merely not shooting down friendlies with AD resources. For example, it's necessary to deconflict support fires from tube artillery, mortars and rockets from all friendly aircraft, whether fixed wing or rotary. It's necessary to deconflict fighters from SAMs, too, or AA as appropriate. This is important not just because of potential amicide, but because of combat effectiveness optimization and avoiding the multiple costs of overtargeting or, worse, targets not engaged because of target assignment confusion. Have worked some of these problems myself professionally, and they can become real head busters quickly, because it's not as simple as simply drawing a zone on the ma. Effective deconfliction is multidimensional in time, space and altitude.

You don't want your airstrike coming in when friendly artillery is firing. Before and after? Wonderful, but not during! You need your FAC or drone not to be in the flight path of inbound shells. And not in the flight path might simply be flying well above the max ordinate of the shells being fired. But even this doesn't properly describe the complexity of deconfliction, because  effective deconfliction is crucially dependent on great real-time comms, clearly defined orders and a keen understanding of who's where doing what. And if you think this is bad now, wait and see what happens when you have long range SAMs and AAMs in the mix and also working across national boundaries, language issues, procedural differences, IFF system differences, terminology confusion, equipment compatibility issues (or even no connectivity in some cases), reliability, enemy action and more. Despite everything I've listed, I guarantee I missed a bunch of topics.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 7, 2022 by John Kettler

[Fernando]

31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I just checked weather forecast for south, Kyiv, and Kharkiv.  No rain.  Some light snow, but cooler temperatures.  We need some wet weather.

If it snows lightly, then the temperature rises enought for the snow to melt, then the cicle repeats again and again and again, you get a nice and looooooong Rasputitsa.

I remember a pal asked me in mid february if I thought the Russians wpuld invade (he likes havingsome small stock exchange inversions) . I repplied that they wouldn't because the best time had been january/early february, so Russian would have to wait until may/june. The reason was Rasputitsa. I never thought the Russians would be dumb enough to invade during Rasputitsa season.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Fernando said:

If it snows lightly, then the temperature rises enought for the snow to melt, then the cicle repeats again and again and again, you get a nice and looooooong Rasputitsa.

I remember a pal asked me in mid february if I thought the Russians wpuld invade (he likes havingsome small stock exchange inversions) . I repplied that they wouldn't because the best time had been january/early february, so Russian would have to wait until may/june. The reason was Rasputitsa. I never thought the Russians would be dumb enough to invade during Rasputitsa season.

A LOT of people thought the same thing.  This is the problem with assuming the decision maker (Putin in this case) is rational.  He sure as Hell should be adequately informed!

I know a lot about Rasputitsa from personal experience.  I know how it behaves and what it does.  Anybody that has spent even 5 minutes trying to negotiate a cease fire with mud knows that it's determination to suck your tires or shoes down to the core of the  Earth knows no boundaries!

Steve

[John Kettler]

3 minutes ago, Fernando said:

If it snows lightly, then the temperature rises enought for the snow to melt, then the cicle repeats again and again and again, you get a nice and looooooong Rasputitsa.

I remember a pal asked me in mid february if I thought the Russians wpuld invade (he likes havingsome small stock exchange inversions) . I repplied that they wouldn't because the best time had been january/early february, so Russian would have to wait until may/june. The reason was Rasputitsa. I never thought the Russians would be dumb enough to invade during Rasputitsa season.

Fernando,

As I pointedly observed long ago in this thread, General Mud has defected and is now fighting for the. Ukrainians, accomplishing effortlessly what would otherwise require vast amounts of men and materiel alike to achieve. Simply put, much like the Germans during the Battle of the Bulge, the Russians, already in dire fuel shape, are trapped on the roads. Any attempt to bypass not only gobbles fuel but entails the risk of a loss (through bogging) every bit as damaging to force strength, in the short term at best, as an outright mechanical breakdown or combat loss. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, akd said:

ATGM engagement against Russian tanks from roof of Mykolaiv airport:

 

Amazing footage.  And at the risk of a vacation..... TAKE THAT M-F-ERS!!!!

[John Kettler]

On 3/5/2022 at 10:51 PM, Fenris said:

Just like 80 years ago

Fenris,

The very definition of crumbling infrastructure. Someone will need to ascertain the tank type so that Oryx can update his loss tally.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Butschi]

On 3/6/2022 at 6:00 AM, sburke said:

He has given a strong impetus to EU to admit Ukraine.  Moldava and Georgia have now applied for membership while Finland and Sweden have considered NATO membership.

Given that every single member has to approve new members, I doubt any of these three countries is going to join EU soon, for a variety of reasons.

• Until there is a better solution than every single country having veto power there is a strong incentive not to admit new members.
• I assume all three would be net recipients, so there current net recipients will get less.
• Some member states have rather Russia-friendly governments (Viktor Orban, I'm looking at you).
• The actual criteria for joining the EU are not that easy to meet, e.g. w.r.t. corruption. I don't think EU will just forgo them here because a number of other countries already did a lot in that direction and are still waiting to be admitted.
• Article 42 of the EU-Treaty contains a mutual defense clause that is somewhat similar to NATO. So, while a country is still in some kind of conflict, I don't see much of a chance for joining

On the other hand, chrystall balls seem to doing a rather bad job of late, so there's that.