How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

While I don't know if I would be any better in such a situation, murder is still murder even if done by the good guys...

Disagree.  I call it justice.  Vigilante justice sure, but justice.  C'est la guerre.

Again, traitors get what they deserve.  

Edited March 2, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[Seedorf81]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The only way to counter small drones is with a laser. Guns don't have the range to prevent them from calling fires on you, and missiles are so  expensive that using them is just another way to lose the war. I guess there will be lot of drones hunting other drones, too. But I think that takes to long tp prevent the enemy getting valuable intelligence/fire direction information. If wasn't a we don't care what it cost area of work last week, it sure as bleep will be by Monday.

 

Strangely enough I saw a video where big birds of prey were trained to intercept small drones. And they were pretty good at it. Medievel tactics making a come-back?

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The time to have done something more forceful was in 2014 when Russian officially wasn't doing anything in Ukraine (a lie, of course).  The problem was in the US were also struggling with Afghanistan and ISIS.  There was no public support for putting military forces directly into a conflict zone.  Plus, Europe weaseled out of doing anything similar.

Now?  The problem is that if we put forces in there that almost certainly means us going to war with Russia.  That is a very, very dangerous thing and nobody in Europe, the US, or allied nations wants to have that happen.

The alternative is mostly what is going on now.  Do everything we can, short of direct military engagement, to make sure that Ukraine defeats Russia.  In the end we get a similar result (defeated, defanged Russia) but without risking WW3.

This is a crappy deal for Ukraine, but not as crappy as would be if Russia used nukes in western Ukraine.  They have a stake in this too, which is why I so far have not seen Zelensky asking for NATO to directly intervene.  And so far he has not been shy about asking for things, and he is getting almost all of them.  Including fast track to EU member status.

Sooooo... I hear you and my heart agrees with you, but my mind says to let Ukraine do its thing with our help and we'll sort out things out when Russia's defeated.

Steve

Steve, I hear you, understand your reasoning and opinion, and on one level agree with you. Unfortunately, there is an old bulldog named “Chesty” that “smells the cordite,” and is trying to claw his way to the top of my psychology. I fear I must work hard to keep him in!

[dan/california]

Can't seem to get back to it,  but I just saw a credible post, if you can use that term in this enviroment, that Ukrainian Special forces were going to change how the treated Russian artillerymen. Their mothers are going to get a different kind of phone call. 

[Haiduk]

Since 24th Feb UKR forces have launced 50 Vilkha rockets (Ukr. developed guided version of Smerch, similar to HIMARS)

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Can't seem to get back to it,  but I just saw a credible post, if you can use that term in this enviroment, that Ukrainian Special forces were going to change how the treated Russian artillerymen. Their mothers are going to get a different kind of phone call. 

You mean by killing them if they capture them? That's a war crime. Most of those guys probably don't even know what they are shooting at.

[Butschi]

10 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Disagree.  I call it justice.  Vigilante justice sure, but justice.  C'est la guerre.

Again, traitors get what they deserve.  

But who gets to decide who is a traitor and who isn't? Shoting marauders, while harsh, is maybe understandable, at least that is something you have to consider under martial law. I don't know the situation, just really read this one post, so maybe the mayor really just wanted to betray his people.

But remember, this happend quite often in 1945: Some mayor wanted to spare his village/city and wanted to hand it over to the allies before they bombarded it - and was shot by the Nazis as a traitor. Saying Nazis were evil but the Ukrainians are the good guys (even if while true) so in their case it is justified is a really slippery slope.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Butschi

[Seedorf81]

21 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

If Putin starts a nuclear war, I doubt there's any point in having his family survive.  They'd be killed the first time they came out in public by whoever was around.  Does he think if he survived he'd stay in power?  He'd hopefully be shot when he tried to order the nukes launched.

Would a nuclear winter solve global warming?

[DerKommissar]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

Would a nuclear winter solve global warming?

Temporarily xD

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

Would a nuclear winter solve global warming?

No, but few people would be left to really care.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

You mean by killing them if they capture them? That's a war crime. Most of those guys probably don't even know what they are shooting at.

No, our SOFs just meant they will eleiminate artillery crews with no mercy during night search&destroy raids. This is not the same that executing of POWs

[Butschi]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

Would a nuclear winter solve global warming?

Yes... Even if not, with most of civilization destroyed, the human CO2-footprint who be small enough to stay below 2°C global warming... I hope that doesn't mean I now have to become a Putin fan...?

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Haiduk said:

No, our SOFs just meant they will eleiminate artillery crews with no mercy during night search&destroy raids. This is not the same that executing of POWs

But does "no mercy" mean "take no prisoners even if they surrender"?

[Seedorf81]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

No, but few people would be left to really care.

See, every mushroom-cloud has a silver lining.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

But does "no mercy" mean "take no prisoners even if they surrender"?

SOF works in such way, that they will not have a time to say "I surrernder!"

Edited March 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[BletchleyGeek]

28 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

it is the massive amounts of smaller systems that make "blinding" near impossible and shielding from nasty small strike also hard.  These are the equivalent to the knives the Spanish used on the Peninsula in 1812, every where, sharp as hell and a thousand little cuts. 

Great analysis by @The_Capt - the best counter against little killer drones (e.g. flying mines) are... drones (and trained eagles/hawks, and I am not even kidding about it). The keyword to look for @BeondTheGrave is "Technology Readiness Level" to separate what exists only in the realm of imagination, from what has been actually tested as minimally reliable. 

I think it is fair to say that the debate that we've seen about certain platforms (e.g. F-35) have been skewed by fairly romantic depictions of air power. Truth be told air power is an essential support tool providing observation (or ISR more generally), interdiction (introducing friction on supply and logistic systems) and security (preventing the adversary from observation and interdiction). If one look at any campaign where air power has been extensively used you'll only see significant results in those three areas, almost never significantly nullifying adversary combat power in a direct way, but contributing to its steady erosion. A good example of this is the role of US Army artillery observation aviation in 1944 and 1945, and what enabled those little planes and the spotters flying them to do their job.

From a strictly professional standpoint what I can say that in a scale from TRL 0 (e.g. "hard" science-fiction) to TRL 5 (e.g. light UAVs for arty observation and "loitering munitions"), UCAVs (and their ground counterparts) are most definitely at TRL 2-3. In normal conditions, this could mean anything to 10 to 25 years to get fully developed. In the current conditions, these systems will reach high TRL way earlier than that.

Russian has zero capability to develop this kind of technology as far as I know, unless they can steal it from somebody else (or somebody else makes them participant of the R&D effort).

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Haiduk said:

SOF works in such way, that they will not have a time to say "I surernder!"

Yes, but then why this special thing about artillerymen?

[Vet 0369]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That Switchblade system is man-portable and made for USSOCOM so idiot proof...snicker...seriously, it is idiot proof so that they can do exactly what they are going to do with it, train really angry civilians whose country just got invaded by a world class tool to use it to make life a living hell for invading forces. 

Nothing ever made has been idiot proof! Idiots are too ingenious!

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

You mean by killing them if they capture them? That's a war crime. Most of those guys probably don't even know what they are shooting at.

I think the Ukrainians opinion is that they can just stop shooting. Dead school children have that effect. As I posted earlier the cycle of barbarity is spooling up. Nato needs to interrupt this before people on both sides start doing absolutely bat **** crazy things.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, but then why this special thing about artillerymen?

Because they shelled Ukraianian settlements. You can find this adress of SOF command and read it

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But remember, this happend quite often in 1945: Some mayor wanted to spare his village/city and wanted to hand it over to the allies before they bombarded it - and was shot by the Nazis as a traitor. Saying Nazis were evil but the Ukrainians are the good guys (even if while true) so in their case it is justified is a really slippery slope.

In several of the Ghettos the Nazis let Jewish councils form. Then when it came to deportations, they made the councils write up the lists for who would go on each train load. If the councilmen didn't comply, the Nazis would put them on the list and then get a new group to do what they wanted. Or worse just grab people off the streets. Some councils, supposedly in an attempt to preserve their communities, began to collaborate and pick people they thought the community could do without. Many deluded themselves into saying that the deportations were just to another ghetto. Both of which is deluded thinking, but also what can you do? Whats the alternative, really? These things are really hard to sort out and its absolutely the case that some perpetrators of crimes can themselves be victims. When your country is invaded and your country is subjugated you do what you have to to survive and, if you can, save your family and your community. In the USSR, the line between bandits and partisans was often gossamer thin. But again what can you do when its your ass on the line? 

The 'c'est la guerre' attitude feels good in the moment, and it feels good to just shoot looters. But could you judge someone whose robbing a shop because the owner left and theyre hungry, or they have people to feed? Often this kind of 'cowboy' justice doesn't do a good job differentiating. But what can you do when the court house is bombed daily? Its too complicated for us to sit in our comfy chairs and decide. 

[Phantom Captain]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, but then why this special thing about artillerymen?

Because the Russian artillerymen are killing women and children indiscriminately so the Ukrainian Special Forces are going to act in kind.

[TheVulture]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, but then why this special thing about artillerymen?

I think the point is that SOF are going in search of artillery  in particular, rather than for example command staff or communications.

[The_Capt]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sobering thread here, from a very interesting feed. 

 

 

If it walks like a duck…

I have seen a few of these “wait these crafty Russians are using some obscure 1930s doctrine, that is why we are seeing this sh$tshow”.  First off, they may be using Cold War tactical doctrine for C2 but they are no where near operational doctrine.  The Soviets worked in the objectives-waves style of operational manoeuvre and that is not what we are seeing here at all.  They have shifted axis in some places but in Soviet doctrine that was supposed to take hours not a week. 

If they are going to go with “dumb-tactical mass/ genius operational manoeuvre” then where is that second one?  I seen plodding and painful operational manoeuvre at play here, stalls and zero coordination between formations.  They are starting to try and fill in gaps but way too late.  Any Ukrainian forces in those pockets have had a week to either block or get out.  The idea that Russian mass has tempo that is outstripping their opponent is laughable at this point.  No they are in a prom-night sweaty awkward grope of a land war right now with a frat house wrecker party (music by Huskavarna chainsaws) as their back up plan. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by The_Capt

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Disagree.  I call it justice.  Vigilante justice sure, but justice.  C'est la guerre.

Again, traitors get what they deserve.  

in the instance where the post that started this particular topic occurred, the town was still in Ukrainian hands.  You can call it what you want but it is still murder.  They could very simply have arrested him, turned him over to legitimate authorities... who could then execute him.  extrajudicial killings where your authorities are still exercising control is just a bad idea.