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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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On 3/1/2022 at 7:21 AM, Mft004 said:
10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Perhaps you and @kraze might be better off staying out of that noxious swamp, or at least keeping it out of this thread.

That's the last I will say on this topic.

 

Let's make that the case. This thread is about the war in progress. It's already a massive thread

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@HaidukI hope you and yours are safe, my friend.

My impression is that the UKR forces are going for a dispersed, flexible and in depth defense. Company/ battalion (at most) level attacks and defense plays, esp in the open country  They're generally avoiding getting stuck in enduring firefights.

Not quite shoot n scoot - more like Punch In the Face, Step Back. Punch in the Gut, Step Back. Repeat.

@Battlefront.com

Is this accurate?

How is the UKR Artillery doing?

Edited by Kinophile
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https://twitter.com/zloy_odessit/status/1498995042039615490?s=20&t=H3qXwKcfqy4OneWggPDvjg

 

on liveuamap this is said to be a photo from Odessa of a Russian ship on fire (the wording doesn't make it clear whether it caught fire due to poor maintenance or UA action). Not enough in the photo to confirm whether it is even a Russian ship,  but *something* is burning. 

22400717_0.jpg

Edited by TheVulture
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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Where is this one?  Hmm... is that a BMP-3 at the head of the column?

Well, Ukraine can at least be thankful that Russia is going to make cleaning up this mess a bit easier than it otherwise could be.  After WW2 they were picking up wrecked vehicles for years because of how scattered and remote they were.  This is the exact opposite.

Steve

I think it is that VDV column that got hit Bucha (I see BTR-Ds and BMD-2s). Was posted without info, but a dramatic view.

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I called BS on that and engaged some good people in debate.  What was the cornerstone of my argument?  Javelin.  And where did I come to that conclusion?  Combat Mission.

To be honest I think a lot of people outside of A) the gaming space and B ) the professional (ie military) wargaming space dont really value the contributions of wargaming as much as they ought to I think. From my own field, academic history, I know a lot of historians who just totally dismiss wargaming as a toy or a distraction. I have only ever seen one(!) work of history which tries to incorporate war games as a source for its conclusions, it was fantastic IMO but it never got broad coverage. 

Not all war games are alike. Not all war games touch on the questions you want to ask. But if you mate the right games up to the right questions IMO there is a lot that can be learned from 'trying to do it' yourself. CMCW has changed how I view both American and Soviet doctrine, because at least I've tried it once right? I've seen some of the limitations and some of the strengths of each system and I've seen what both sides need to go right in a battle to win. CMCW has its limitations, as all games do, and is only a simulation of what would have actually happened. Nobody knows what would have happened in a WWIII situation except a lot of people would have died. But in terms of the tactical/battalion scale, CMCW offers an interesting and IMO important look into how the US and Soviets meant to fight. And I'd say the same about the other titles as well. 

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4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Those "roofs" on the tanks are supposed to help against Javelins? Does that really help?

 

 

Another point, and a modification on the post @Battlefront.commade earlier that I just replied to, it seems like despite the hype of the Javelin, many many engagements are actually being done with the NLAW. I havn't seen many Javs in actions tbh. Not to say its not of course, but I have seen any number of NLAW attacks with good effect since the war began. Any amount of roof armor you want wont protect from an NLAW attack to the side. 

Good on the Brits for that one. 

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Borodianka town NW from Kyiv after yesterday battle. Russian bomb ruined the middle of house.

Зображення

@Kinophile

I'm ok, thanks. About arty, I'm hearing it work somewhere  in our district. Several days ago that was 2S7 Pion, and now some less powerfull

Edited by Haiduk
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17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Borodianka town NW from Kyiv after yesterday battle. Russian bomb ruined the middle of house.

Зображення

@Kinophile

I'm ok, thanks. About arty, I'm hearing it work somewhere  in our district. Several days ago that was 2S7 Pion, and now some less powerfull

Is that a statue of Lenin? 

If so pretty powerful, IIRC many statues and busts were designed to have him looking up to the future of Communism. His successors had turned his eyes to the ground in shame. 

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13 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Is that a statue of Lenin? 

No. Taras Shevchenko. Ukranian poet of 19th century, his poetry is a symbol of awaking of national memory and spirit, so even in USSR times Shevchenko's monuments were so popular as monuments of Lenin ) 

Here two new Russian toys, anandoned in Sumy oblast: BTR-MDM and some probably like FO vehicle on BMD-4 base

Зображення

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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I cannot get my head around the value of the equipment the Russian Army is just throwing away !

Just that Tunguska and Tor-M2 together have to be $30 million plus 🤔 
( I assume the Tor-M2 DesertFox showed being towed is the one we saw a still of earlier ... because if they've captured 2 my head will explode ).

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5 minutes ago, Baneman said:

I cannot get my head around the value of the equipment the Russian Army is just throwing away !

Just that Tunguska and Tor-M2 together have to be $30 million plus 🤔 
( I assume the Tor-M2 DesertFox showed being towed is the one we saw a still of earlier ... because if they've captured 2 my head will explode ).

Yep that is the same as earlier. However this Pantsir isnt (wasnt) cheap either.

 

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OK a question for our Ukrainian friends what's the Sand for?

1646228870141-png.158346

One witty (meant in good humour to our German allies) response...

Quote

Could be to entice Germans to put their towels out, thus sucking NATO into the conflict if disturbed by Russian tanks?

Answers funny or truth on a postcard...

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking of losing the propaganda war that tax notice and others clearly indicate something... Ukraine is so confident they will win, so confident in their moral high ground, so confident that the world has their back, that they can devote government time and resources to making fun of the Russian invaders.

Putin would recognize that world is not laughing with Ukraine, they are laughing at him.  Knowing his personality type, that would hurt him more than his pending heart attack.  If he read any of this stuff or anybody was brave enough to present it to him.  I'm sure there are too many open windows in his office for people to want to risk that.

That tax notice is right up there with the librarians!  Too funny.

Steve

This to me is a huge point. Between Ukrainians inherent attitude, the UA's grit on the field and Russian mistakes Putin has got them thinking they can win outright. That's a huge blunder. The whole point of the decapitation wave was to forestall that. Worse, Putin has made the EU think the Ukrainians can win outright. If the EU didn't think so, if the EU wasn't quite literally inspired by Ukrainian resistance those arms transfers simply wouldn't be happening. There were a lot of factors in this, not least that the US admin did a great job of anticipating Russian actions, pre-organizing responses and priming EU countries but Russia wrongfooted itself from the beginning in really dire ways. 

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