How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

There is this page about Russian vehicle markings but it is a few days old.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/vehicle-marking-of-russian-forces-near-the-border/

It claims vehicles with O symbols were spotted near Belgorod. No really conclusive evidence though.

That's a great link, thanks.  A little contradictory from what has been seen thus far, but it also states that there's not many O vehicles.  Which itself puzzles me.

This also answers the question I had about the straight stripe.  Here's knocked out armor near Kherson with the stripes:

Steve

[arkhangelsk2021]

2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

2 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 

 

 

Well, they are taking another crack at it.

The location marker suggests that they are now IN the city's northern outskirts.

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Actually sending Panzerfaust 3, not ATGMs, I believe.

akd,

Here's the original German statement.

 

Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz

 

@Bundeskanzler

 

 

Regierungsvertreter*in aus Deutschland

· 12h

Der russische Überfall markiert eine Zeitenwende. Es ist unsere Pflicht, die Ukraine nach Kräften zu unterstützen bei der Verteidigung gegen die Invasionsarmee von #Putin. Deshalb liefern wir 1000 Panzerabwehrwaffen und 500 Stinger-Raketen an unsere Freunde in der #Ukraine.

Panzerabwehrwaffen translates as "tank defense weapons", which is inherently ambiguous. While 1000 reloadable Panzerfaust 600s or whatever they're using these days would certainly be helpful, 1000 of these would be much better, especially if shipped with reloads--Milan ER!

http://www.military-today.com/missiles/milan_er.htm

Either one of these fall under the rubric of panzerabwehrwaffen. Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the Germans made it seem they were sending Panzerfausts but actually sent the Milan ERs instead.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[melm]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Lukashenko's life expectancy is the same as Putin's, plus about ten seconds. That is only if he is lucky. If he isn't Putin will trow him to the wolves in attempt to save himself. either way way I see a lamppost in his future, and a rope.

Yeah. Your words perfectly explained why Lukashenko chose to side with Putin this time.

[John Kettler]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's a great link, thanks.  A little contradictory from what has been seen thus far, but it also states that there's not many O vehicles.  Which itself puzzles me.

This also answers the question I had about the straight stripe.  Here's knocked out armor near Kherson with the stripes:

Steve

Steve,

Of all the imagery I've seen so far, have seen only the Z, one instance of Z in a box, and the V on known Russian AFVs and MT and the O on what I believe may be Belarus AFVs entering Ukraine from there.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Does anyone know how this happened? Regardless of the cause, somebody's MSR was decisively cut.
 

 

Aurora Intel

 

@AuroraIntel

 

Imagery via

@planet

shows the collapsed Kamaryn Slavutych Border Crossing Bridge at the Ukraine and Belarus border here.

 

1:44 PM · Feb 26, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

[borg]

I’m seeing like literally RUS infantry - walking inside Kharkiv, as in , attempting a door to door tactic… but what exactly ?? Is this real strategy ? 

[arkhangelsk2021]

Definitely getting deeper into Kharkiv.

[John Kettler]

John Spencer

@SpencerGuard

Chair of Urban Warfare Studies, Modern War Institute

@warinstitute

| Colonel (CA) |

@MilWritersGuild

| Author, Connected Soldiers http://tinyurl.com/6kmapc35
 

John Spencer

 

@SpencerGuard

 

So I've been asked what my advice would be to civilian resistors in Ukriane, especially Kyiv. Someone with no military training but wanting to resist. Here are a few things #Kyiv #UkraineUnderAttack :

 

Here is his list. The thread is quite large and has generated quite a few useful contributions. Apparently, it's being translated into Ukrainian, too. Below is one of those responses.

 

Alberto Barbo

 

@betobarbo

 

Replying to

@SpencerGuard

In #Kharkov, the National Guard captured an entire enemy reconnaissance group that was trying to penetrate the territory of one of the military units. #Spetsnaz #UkraineUnderAttack #UkraineInvasion #RusiaUkraina #RusiaInvadeUcrania

 

 

 

 

 

12:04 PM · Feb 26, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Per a response to that post ref a query about the doc, the answer didn't shock me, for this was standard NKVD, KGB and Spetsnaz practice, too. It's a target list, but I don't know what the disposition (capture, capture or kill, kill) of those named is supposed to be. What I do know for sure is that part of the header reads OMON, the elite internal security police of the Russian National Guard. OMON has its own SO.
 

amie Courtes

 

@glitchhiker

·

9h

 

It is a list of individuals. Police chiefs/Authorities, Engineers, Doctors, people in operational/management civil positions...

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 27, 2022 by John Kettler

[borg]

Guys !!! Go see the recent recent tweets by OSINTtechnical… the RUS ! Reversing and walking in OPEN plain site . They must have never heard of CM series before . I swear. 

[arkhangelsk2021]

Say what you want about how they are doing it, but it does seem they are digging deeper and deeper.

  

5 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

John Spencer

@SpencerGuard

Chair of Urban Warfare Studies, Modern War Institute

@warinstitute

| Colonel (CA) |

@MilWritersGuild

| Author, Connected Soldiers http://tinyurl.com/6kmapc35
 

John Spencer

 

@SpencerGuard

 

So I've been asked what my advice would be to civilian resistors in Ukriane, especially Kyiv. Someone with no military training but wanting to resist. Here are a few things #Kyiv #UkraineUnderAttack :

 

Here is his list. The thread is quite large and has generated quite a few useful contributions. Apparently, it's being translated into Ukrainian, too. Below is one of those responses.

 

Alberto Barbo

 

@betobarbo

 

Replying to

@SpencerGuard

In #Kharkov, the National Guard captured an entire enemy reconnaissance group that was trying to penetrate the territory of one of the military units. #Spetsnaz #UkraineUnderAttack #UkraineInvasion #RusiaUkraina #RusiaInvadeUcrania

 

 

 

 

 

12:04 PM · Feb 26, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Would someone who reads Russian please provide at least the gist of the document?

Regards,

John Kettler

I can read just enough Russian to recognize it isn't much - it's basically a name list starting from the commander of the detachment. And it's an OMON unit.

Edited February 27, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021

[borg]

3 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Say what you want about how they are doing it, but it does seem they are digging deeper and deeper.

  

I can read just enough Russian to recognize it isn't much - it's basically a name list starting from the commander of the detachment. And it's an OMON unit.

The deeper they entrench… the uglier …. 

[borg]

And … in Kharkov , the VDV forces were unloading into a static BDRM scout car monument . 

[CHEqTRO]

In reference to the push into Kharkiv:

It seems that they have decided to push into the city with light forces, instead that with support of heavy armor:

The convoy that can be seen in the second video has already been destroyed/ stopped:

There are some more videos about light vehicle equipment destroyed inside Kharkiv

The battle is of course not over, but the city is far from lost for the Ukranians. If anything, Russians are going to suffer massive csualties if they go ahead with their decision of attacking only with light forces

Also, some insane footage of the fighting against the convoys:

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

You do realize that your plan would also infringe Ukrainian sovereignty, do you?

You really apply double standards, do you? You dare to talk about Ukrainian sovereignity? 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, borg said:

Guys !!! Go see the recent recent tweets by OSINTtechnical… the RUS ! Reversing and walking in OPEN plain site . They must have never heard of CM series before . I swear. 

Damn, I was hoping you guys wouldn't see that.  Now you're going to ask for all kinds of brand new special Move Commands

Seriously though, I'm thinking the thing here is the rear of the Tigr is as effective as any other side.  Might as well put that to towards the enemy to give the gunner and driver some more protection.  Plus, if you have to get away real quick, driving forward will do that.  Er, provided your infantry gets out of the way.

 

BTW, this is a good example of what's going wrong with the Russian attacks.  Put on your CM hats here for a second.  You're playing a QB and are tasked with taking a major city that's been kicking your ass for days now.  You are getting ready to purchase forces.  What is your first thought of a force purchase?  A platoon of infantry and some light armored trucks?  If so, then you should sign up to play some multiplayer games against nOoBz so they can rack up some victories.

Steve

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

You really apply double standards, do you? You dare to talk about Ukrainian sovereignity? 

I just point out a clear disadvantage in the plan. You see, the moral vibe I get from this entire conflict is ... to try and put it in terms you might understand ... German v Belgium 1914 - if you ask who's right, well it's not going to be the Germans. But there are sufficient mitigating and complicating factors that I'm in no mood to make Hitler comparisons, to advocate torture they can get away with, or to say the Ukrainians have an absolute morality advantage.

My priority, in case you don't get it, is that this gets done quickly. So you may think I'm raining doom and gloom on the Ukrainians while you are cheering for every dead Russian tank, but the fact is, I just don't think the Ukrainians are really putting the Russians in danger, at least not for now. The wave of tweets on dead Russian equipment reminds me frankly of Japans Dai-Hon-Ei Happyou (GHQ pronouncements). At least there does seem to be real dead Russian equipment ... that's the improvement ... but the real problem is that like their Imperial Japanese counterparts, every report of "success", real or fake, seems to be slowly but surely moving deeper into Ukraine. So basically Russians are dying but they are moving the line up.

[Zveroboy1]

This could also just be some forward recon elements though, hard to tell. Not exactly a by the book tactic but we're only getting partial info.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[Battlefront.com]

Ukraine military reporting they shot down a cruise missile fired from a bomber in Belarus's airspace:

Quote

In addition, ВМС ЗС України once again disrupted the landing of the enemy marine paratrooper in the Black Sea Operative Zone.

There have been strikes in the west.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I just point out a clear disadvantage in the plan. You see, the moral vibe I get from this entire conflict is ... to try and put it in terms you might understand ... German v Belgium 1914 - if you ask who's right, well it's not going to be the Germans. But there are sufficient mitigating and complicating factors that I'm in no mood to make Hitler comparisons, to advocate torture they can get away with, or to say the Ukrainians have an absolute morality advantage.

My priority, in case you don't get it, is that this gets done quickly. So you may think I'm raining doom and gloom on the Ukrainians while you are cheering for every dead Russian tank, but the fact is, I just don't think the Ukrainians are really putting the Russians in danger, at least not for now. The wave of tweets on dead Russian equipment reminds me frankly of Japans Dai-Hon-Ei Happyou (GHQ pronouncements). At least there does seem to be real dead Russian equipment ... that's the improvement ... but the real problem is that like their Imperial Japanese counterparts, every report of "success", real or fake, seems to be slowly but surely moving deeper into Ukraine. So basically Russians are dying but they are moving the line up.

I think you need to dive deeper into the military analysis being done by professionals as well as some of us here.  The short of it is the Russian plan is in tatters.  What they expected to achieve on Day 1 is probably 25% accomplished going into Day 4, with significantly higher losses than expected, no air superiority, a half dozen disastrous airbone landings (i.e. wiped out), and major logistics problems that are slowing down what little momentum they had in places.

On top of that, Russia only has a very limited window to keep the wool pulled down over the eyes of its people.  Based on 2014 and 2015 experiences they have only a few days of their soldiers not reporting home before loved ones start to ask uncomfortable questions.  And getting phone calls from them from detention in Ukraine is not going to help.

Then there's the resolve of the West to combat the invasion in ways that it can.  Including sending meaningful lethal aid to Ukraine NOW while it matters.  Ukraine citizens are also showing up to volunteer faster than they are losing forces at the front.  There's also many instances of civilians engaging in partisan warfare already.  At the same time it's reported that Russia doesn't have much in the way of smart munitions left in stock and might only have 3 days worth of heavy artillery shells remaining in inventory.

This is not to say that everything is going great for Ukraine.  Clearly that's not the case.  However, uninformed general opinion before the war started was this would be over and done with in a couple of days with the total defeat of Ukraine.  I was not one of those people.

Ukraine has no reason to throw in the towel now, especially since the Russian position is total surrender, disarmament, and dismemberment as a nation state.

Here's a good start to catch up on what's going on:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

Steve

[CHEqTRO]

More about the situation in Kharkiv:

Unsurprysingly, the Russians went in blindly with only the support of light forces and have as of now scattered

[Vanir Ausf B]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, this is a good example of what's going wrong with the Russian attacks.  Put on your CM hats here for a second.  You're playing a QB and are tasked with taking a major city that's been kicking your ass for days now.  You are getting ready to purchase forces.  What is your first thought of a force purchase?

 

Steve

14 inch battleship battery.

[John Kettler]

CHEqTRO,

Believe that lone demolished Tigr has a BSR fitted, which, if true, definitely means it's a recon vehicle. The only other reasonable explanation is a SATCOM antenna, but its being parallel to the ground would seem to rule that out..

Regards,

John Kettler

[borg]

UKR just blew a bridge at Bucha Irpin. - allegedly trapping the RUS wirh no way back 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, borg said:

UKR just blew a bridge at Bucha Irpin. - allegedly trapping the RUS wirh no way back 

Ouch.  Wonder what they hit it with.

Yesterday there was a posting of an entire Russian bridging unit (company sized by the look of it) that was taken out near Kherson.  They appear to have been shot up by airstrikes, perhaps attack helicopters.  This is a highly valuable unit in a war that requires getting over lots of big water obstacles.  These sorts of units don't grow on trees either.  A significant loss.

Ah, found it:

Notice these units came out from Crimea and yet they have Z markings on them.

You can tell this force isn't further north because it would have snow on it.

Steve