How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

20 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Here's the problem, though. Which part of the Russian position looked "maximalist" to you? I've pointed out several areas in the proposal where they clearly are willing to make concessions...

"Ukraine can never join NATO". Doesn't matter how many small areas of concession there are, if there's one 250kg non-negotiable* gorilla in the room. And now Putin is bitching about Finland and Sweden wanting to join the alliance, even though it's entirely because of his own actions that it is occurring.

* It's non-negotiable, because it is setting boundaries on a state's sovereignty that are entirely unacceptable.

[melm]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

That's looks like a 30story apartment complex, made out of concrete rebar, 5 floors are heavily damaged. It's not a small missile at least, I'm no expert so wouldn't know how big of a warhead that is. Kalibr is said to be 400-500KG HE.

You can check the tomhawk's video on youtube.

Its warhead is 450kg, smaller than Russian Kalibr. 

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, womble said:

"Ukraine can never join NATO". Doesn't matter how many small areas of concession there are, if there's one 250kg non-negotiable* gorilla in the room. And now Putin is bitching about Finland and Sweden wanting to join the alliance, even though it's entirely because of his own actions that it is occurring.

* It's non-negotiable, because it is setting boundaries on a state's sovereignty that are entirely unacceptable.

If the fighting in Ukraine shows anything it is that the Russians aren't nearly as good as they try to make us belief. We should call their bluff and come to the aid of Ukraine with all we have. Trying to intimidate Sweden and Finland is another example of bullying and bluffing. If it works, there's no stopping it. There must come a strong and aggressive answer from NATO.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[arkhangelsk2021]

Just now, womble said:

"Ukraine can never join NATO". Doesn't matter how many small areas of concession there are, if there's one 250kg non-negotiable* gorilla in the room. And now Putin is bitching about Finland and Sweden wanting to join the alliance, even though it's entirely because of his own actions that it is occurring.

First, NATO's Article 10 does not even put things in terms of "requests". It puts things in terms of invitations:

 

Quote

 

Article 10

The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument of accession.

 

So, how does America choosing to not invite Ukraine mean an infringement of Ukrainian sovereignty? If America is forced to invite Ukraine, isn't that logically a limitation on America's sovereignty?

I understand you are citing a common legal position proffered by NATO, but I'd be blunt, it is illogical and looks more like religious dogma than anything else.

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, womble said:

I wondered whether the handling of any POWs might be something the rest of the world could assist with. Or would that trigger Vlad?

Is the temperature around freezing? Take their socks and shoes off, they soon agree with you. 

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is the temperature around freezing? Take their socks and shoes off, they soon agree with you. 

This ain't the battle of the Ardennes, you know.

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

First, NATO's Article 10 does not even put things in terms of "requests". It puts things in terms of invitations:

 

So, how does America choosing to not invite Ukraine mean an infringement of Ukrainian sovereignty? If America is forced to invite Ukraine, isn't that logically a limitation on America's sovereignty?

I understand you are citing a common legal position proffered by NATO, but I'd be blunt, it is illogical and looks more like religious dogma than anything else.

Your position here defending Russia's war of aggression looks like a religious dogma. 

[akd]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russian cruise missile hit the residential house on Lobanovsky avenue in Kyiv. The missile obviously targeted runway of Kyiv airport (Zhuliany), but instead hit the house nearby. Number of loses is unknown, emergency services can't reach destroyed storeys because it's too dangerous.

The video of hit

Second cruise missle was intercepted in the area of Kyiv hydroenergy plant dam

 

This looks like it may have been a SAM that failed to guide. The smoke trail does not make sense for a terminal cruise missile. (To be clear Ukrainian accidents are Putin’s responsibility for starting an unnecessary war.)

Edited February 26, 2022 by akd

[womble]

15 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

First, NATO's Article 10 does not even put things in terms of "requests". It puts things in terms of invitations:

 

So, how does America choosing to not invite Ukraine mean an infringement of Ukrainian sovereignty? If America is forced to invite Ukraine, isn't that logically a limitation on America's sovereignty?

I understand you are citing a common legal position proffered by NATO, but I'd be blunt, it is illogical and looks more like religious dogma than anything else.

Looks like semantics to me. The difference between "they can never accept" and "they can never be invited" is irrelevant. It speaks to the dreadful insecurity of the dictator who cannot withstand criticism and so must censor critics, who cannot win in a democratic environment, so uses corruption and bully-boy tactics and the control of state apparatus to dismantle democracy. It speaks to the bully who can't understand that you catch more flies with honey than vinegar, and remains envious of others' success to the point of wanting to smash them in the face, even though it's their own hangups that mean they're not sitting at the same table.

[arkhangelsk2021]

Just now, Lethaface said:

Your position here defending Russia's war of aggression looks like a religious dogma. 

I'd like to think I'm pretty flexible. If I see a Russian soldier being cordial, I'd note it. If I see a Russian Strela-10 running over a civilian-looking car, I'd note it (I did not invent the idea that it was some kind of anti-car bomb defense and I'm skeptical of that theory now). If Putin says something reasonable, I'd note it. If the Western press turns that something reasonable into a defamatory mess, I'd note it. If the Russians try to pass off Village A for Village B, well I'd consider that claim though I can't really tell them apart.

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This ain't the battle of the Ardennes, you know.

It worked in North Africa too. Try it out yourself, put your feet in a bucket of ice. Doesn't leave any marks for brutality. 

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, chuckdyke said:

It worked in North Africa too. Try it out yourself, put your feet in a bucket of ice. Doesn't leave any marks for brutality. 

I'll take your word for it.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I'd like to think I'm pretty flexible. If I see a Russian soldier being cordial, I'd note it. If I see a Russian Strela-10 running over a civilian-looking car, I'd note it (I did not invent the idea that it was some kind of anti-car bomb defense and I'm skeptical of that theory now). If Putin says something reasonable, I'd note it. If the Western press turns that something reasonable into a defamatory mess, I'd note it. If the Russians try to pass off Village A for Village B, well I'd consider that claim though I can't really tell them apart.

The car manufacturer will use it for safety design promotion. The car got crushed but the driver lives thanks to ........

[akd]

Ukrainian AD still active today.  Reports of Ukrainian fighters and helicopters still up and fighting.

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

I'd like to think I'm pretty flexible. If I see a Russian soldier being cordial, I'd note it. If I see a Russian Strela-10 running over a civilian-looking car, I'd note it (I did not invent the idea that it was some kind of anti-car bomb defense and I'm skeptical of that theory now). If Putin says something reasonable, I'd note it. If the Western press turns that something reasonable into a defamatory mess, I'd note it. If the Russians try to pass off Village A for Village B, well I'd consider that claim though I can't really tell them apart.

Well let me state that I for one believe that Russian people are just like us, humans. Russian soldiers are soldiers, they don't get to ask why but do the do or die. 
And the West is certainly not holy.

But for the last few pages you have been talking about how Ukraine shouldn't make things worse by continuing to resist or how fair Russia's proposal was.

It doesn't matter anymore how fair the proposal was. 

Let's say today you punch out your wife's teeth, while she wasn't attacking you. The judge won't care that the day before you wrote such a good letter about how to share responsibilities. 

[arkhangelsk2021]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

The difference between "they can never accept" and "they can never be invited" is irrelevant.

The subject where the limitation applies is different. Do you consider "I can't invite you" and "You can't accept my invitation" a 'semantic' difference?

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Ukrainian AD still active today.  Reports of Ukrainian fighters and helicopters still up and fighting.

Things have turned around, war is waged in urban centres. It

takes manpower to control modern cities of at least 4-5 million people.

[BeondTheGrave]

If true, big movement on the sanctions front. TBH I didn't expect Europe would take this step. Doesn't this in effect make gas and oil payments extremely painful (that is, its a soft oil sanction in itself)? TBH as an American I only vaguely understand SWIFT to begin with. 

Also serious movement on the only sanction that really matters. 

[db_zero]

Netherlands is sending 200 Stinger missiles to Ukraine.

There are 2 US drone flying around Ukrainian airspace according to reports.

Besides unit tactics training before the conflict the west was also providing communication gear and command and control gear and training to “better integrate”.

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero

[arkhangelsk2021]

12 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

It doesn't matter anymore how fair the proposal was. 

That's fine. It's just that you should make this decision from facts as they actually are, not distortions of the Western media. If this war started because Biden failed to respond reasonably to Putin's reasonable proposals, you can still say it's no justification to attack Ukraine, as long as its done with that fact in mind.

Quote

Ukraine shouldn't make things worse by continuing to resist

I said that if they can't win, conventionally, they should make serious consideration towards accepting a second best, and listed out some reasons why it might be smart to do so. Is there a tradeoff? Yes. Does having a trade-off mean they shouldn't consider it. No.

Further, on the facts, allow me to be a bit skeptical about the universal enthusiasm of the Ukrainians. A lot signed up, yes. But Zelensky deciding to ban all the males from leaving gives me an objective reason to wonder whether everyone is really as gung-ho. Unless his militias will be a lot bigger by this measure, it's probably better to accept a smaller force than a larger force intermixed with people whose hearts are not necessarily in it.

Edited February 26, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Add one more point.

[chuckdyke]

All settled than, Biden and Putin should play Combat Mission Black Sea and the winner takes all.

[Phantom Captain]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

An interesting thread about Russian poor performace and the reasons behind it:

So much info here!  Thank you.

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

That's fine. It's just that you should make this decision from facts as they actually are, not distortions of the Western media. If this war started because Biden failed to respond reasonably to Putin's reasonable proposals, you can still say it's no justification to attack Ukraine, as long as its done with that fact in mind.

LOL

I don't make any decisions on this.

This war started because Putin invaded Ukraine with the aim of demilitairizing Ukraine and 'denazifying' it's government. 

However you try to rationalize that into something reasonable is beyond my comprehension and I don't feel like debating that issue.

 

 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

This war started because Putin invaded Ukraine with the aim of demilitairizing Ukraine and 'denazifying' it's government. 

The Dutch word is 'Nuchter' after 57 years I failed to explain the concept. To translate it as Sober won't do.

[Vet 0369]

11 hours ago, Simcoe said:

Let me know if this is too political and I will remove this post. Tinfoil hat time.

I refuse to believe Putin is anything but a smart operator. Every step of the way has been calculated and fairly successful. This means he is privy to information that we aren't.

• China gives tacit support
• Europe/NATO is too weak and divided to counter Russia/China
• That leaves the US. We recently had a president and currently have an entire political party that has worked to undermine NATO, move the US toward an isolationist policy and lift sanctions on Russia. Pretty convenient that midterms are coming up and Joe's poll numbers aren't looking good. Is it really so far fetched that the next administration comes in and quietly reverses sanctions on Russia?

 

I originally thought Putin was testing the new Biden administration to see how it would react. If you look at the history books, the Soviets/Russia have “tested” every new administration since Truman either directly or by a client state. If the administration didn’t react “forcibly” enough, the world suffered an “incident.” History has shown a common practice of “pushing” your opponent. If he resists, take a step back. If he doesn’t resist, take two steps forward.