How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Great points, Butschi.  One can only hope that Russian people have access to information.  If he did go against NATO while counting on nukes to back us off, then maybe there would be an uprising.  Or someone would step in.  If he really starts threatening nukes then he's clearly insane.  There's just too many intelligent military men, hopefully they would step in.  Hopefully.  Then again, I thought invading Ukraine was bats-t crazy, but here we are.

 

[arkhangelsk2021]

20 minutes ago, Probus said:

Ran out of reactions today. +1 to what many of you are saying.

Same here.

@ButschiFor my part, I've never ruled out in my mind or anywhere that the Russians might actually use the stuff they piled up. I don't think the Russians are necessarily as obstinate as the Western media makes them out to be - for example, if NATO agreed to Russia's proposal (which is actually pretty fair-minded as actually written out), but certainly the military was one of the options, and ultimately the one they went for. So when it happened I was honestly "Oh"

====

In something both "Ouch" and strangely funny (from 10000 kilometers away), the Russians have made it from the northwest to the southwest of Kiev and are now duking it out, in all places, a zoo:

Edited February 26, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021

[db_zero]

25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

On a little side note about perceptions:  I have heard from so many folks my generation or older how soft and weak young people are today, they're pansies who can't stop staring at phones, blah blah blah.  Yet thousands of those pansies are lining up to recieve AK47s and will probably die in the hundreds over the next few days.  Every generation has the ability to be tough and brave, it just doesn't show until they are tested.  Like all those kids who signed up for the military after 9-11.  I salute all them all. 

Now if one person could just somehow find a way to put a bullet through Putin's face.  What a monster.  Threatening nukes, threatening Sweden & Finland, threatening everyone.  He is completely insane and out of control.  I hope the russian people rise up and their brave soldiers refuse to fire on the crowds.  Those soldiers are the only thing between Putin being in charge and Putin strung up on a lamppost. 

I guess I'm just upset seeing what is happening to the good people of Ukraine, minding their own business, living in an independent country w a lot of freedom & culture & history.

I have to give President Zelenskyy the Man of the Year Award and great respect for the internal fortitude and courage he is showing in the face of overwhelming odds. Unlike others who fawn over dictators, talk tough, incite insurrection and chaos and bail when the going get tough, Zelenskyy has more than shown his meddle.

This is going to change a lot of people perceptions on the cast of characters who dominate the spotlight.

We've entered a new world...

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Long time forum lurker here. Very interesting discussion and also a good source for informations, thank you for that.

I too wonder what Putin's end game could be. A week ago I would have been willing to bet good money on that Putin is just bluffing. Not even that, so far I actually had the impression that he is more into Chess than Poker. More or less everything he did so far was rather rational or calculated. Georgia and Eastern Ukraine were obvous consequence of both countries being considered NATO candidates by some. Keeping some kind of frozen conflict going is an "easy" way to prevent a country from joining NATO. The intervention in Syria meant the West had to talk to Russia again, meaning it was a major power again not some regional power as Obama once called the country. And because NATO and especially the US did not exactly behave like saints during the last decades, Putin had made good progress in deviding Europe and the US along several fault lines.

Now this... I don't know. Playing a bit smarter Putin would certainly have been able to gain a lot of concessions. So it seems, gaining anything via negociations seems to never have been his goal. What I find really disturbing is this: If he is really playing poker and still seeks to destroy or at the very least severly weaken NATO, he could go all in. Attacking Poland is out of the question, I think. But the Baltic states... Having Ukraine and Belarus, Russia would be in a very good position to cut off reinforcments for the Baltic or at least make the effort costly. Combined with a threat that any intervention would immediatly be answered with all out nuclear war (remember also, the latest generation of Russian nuclear missiles is causing NATO some headache), the ball would be firmly in NATO's court: Risk nuclear annihilation for waging war that would be difficult to win even if the war stayed conventional? Mourir pour Dantzig (or Riga, for that matter)? Of course, what would NATO be worth, then?

Sounds way too Tom Clancy or Larry Bond, I would have said a week ago, but now...

You know this is what I can’t get past either.  Up until now Putin has been pretty careful and demonstrated nuance and sophistication in his strategies.  The list of successes is quite long, all based on careful manipulation of narrative, subversive tactics and a brilliant divide and conquer effort aimed at the west, US specifically.   Georgia, Estonia, Crimea, Donbas v1.0, Syria, the Arm-Azer conflict, democratic interference  and even in far flung corners like Africa Russia has been pulling off a string of wins by getting inside our calculus and leaving us in the west unable to decide what to do.

Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…?  Does not add up.  Further, what is the crisis worth risking all this?  Some say Ukraine entry into NATO but it was not like they were having the induction ceremony this week.  There was plenty of rumbling in the west to slow roll Ukraine entry for this exact reason.  So why the sudden need for extreme escalation?  

From a political and strategic perspective this does not make a lot of sense.  The risks are very high, the long term costs also high, so what is the pay off here?  It is too easy to say “he is crazy”, but he has not demonstrated this level of irrationality before.  It like there has been a glitch in the Matrix.  I am sure they will be trying to figure this one out for some time.

[Chibot Mk IX]

21 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

It's too early in the game to reallocate. My guess would be that Kiev was the priority all along, and Kharkov is there to force Ukraine to commit forces to its defense (since Ukraine can't exactly lose Kharkov, either).

Yes, Ukr cannot lose Kharkov at this moment, because it is important to Rus too. If Kharkov is occupied or defender be suppressed, look at those roads coming out of Kharkov, Rus will have the freedom to move troops west through M03 highway (participate the battle in Kiev) or turn south, work together with the friendly troops from Melitopol to encircle Ukr  in the Donetsk area  

[BletchleyGeek]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…?  Does not add up.

I am pretty sure that didn't happen overnight, man. On the contrary all those string of successes as you say have made him convinced they can get away with this.

FWIW looks like a Russian forward detachment is trying to make a run for Kiev city centre from the West. Intense images of combat, which you can also pick up on Google Maps with indications of "very slow traffic".

[db_zero]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You know this is what I can’t get past either.  Up until now Putin has been pretty careful and demonstrated nuance and sophistication in his strategies.  The list of successes is quite long, all based on careful manipulation of narrative, subversive tactics and a brilliant divide and conquer effort aimed at the west, US specifically.   Georgia, Estonia, Crimea, Donbas v1.0, Syria, the Arm-Azer conflict, democratic interference  and even in far flung corners like Africa Russia has been pulling off a string of wins by getting inside our calculus and leaving us in the west unable to decide what to do.

Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…?  Does not add up.  Further, what is the crisis worth risking all this?  Some say Ukraine entry into NATO but it was not like they were having the induction ceremony this week.  There was plenty of rumbling in the west to slow roll Ukraine entry for this exact reason.  So why the sudden need for extreme escalation?  

From a political and strategic perspective this does not make a lot of sense.  The risks are very high, the long term costs also high, so what is the pay off here?  It is too easy to say “he is crazy”, but he has not demonstrated this level of irrationality before.  It like there has been a glitch in the Matrix.  I am sure they will be trying to figure this one out for some time.

Hard to say. Putin has been a smooth operator, but perhaps his success and ability to get away with murder has caught up with him.

Its also time to bring up China. By aligning with Putin and allowing Putin to move forces from the flank that was guarding the front with China they should be held to some account. They are trying to play it cool and not come out completely on Putin's side and make statements to the effect that both sides should negotiate, but who are they fooling? I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe the report that they really didn't believe Putin would actually go forward and launch and full scale assault and are now trying to backtrack, but still some punishment is in order.

I say we send Taiwan some Javelins, Stingers and dangle some F-15X's to send a message to China. They are complicit in Putin's venture into Ukraine.

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, BletchleyGeek said:

I am pretty sure that didn't happen overnight, man. On the contrary all those string of successes as you say have made him convinced they can get away with this.

FWIW looks like a Russian forward detachment is trying to make a run for Kiev city centre from the West. Intense images of combat, which you can also pick up on Google Maps with indications of "very slow traffic".

In political and strategic timeframes this is a whiplashing policy shift even for an autocrat.  This time last year no one as seriously thinking that beyond the usual sabre rattling and posturing that this was an eventuality, or at least mainstream analysis.  They obviously set this in motion a few months ago and again , why?
 

If the calculus was “well been getting away with rear area ass grabbery, now let’s try cruise missiles”, it is a miscalculation of historic proportions.  That or, he knows something we don’t and all resolve collapses in a few weeks, at which point we are really in trouble.

[arkhangelsk2021]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…?

That's the difference between an West European / US mentality and those more to the east. They think long term. If we accept the premise that NATO will eventually extend a formal invite to Ukraine, and that is worth war to the Russians, then the question changes. Will the Russians be better placed to do this in 2023 or 2025 than today? Is there a date that Putin can look forward to (for example, if they wait until 2025, they might somehow have a competent semiconductor industry)? Suppose at the time of the invitation, they have demobilized. The sooner they get this over with the sooner they can start waiting for the West to lift sanctions.

One problem with the Western strategy is that to the Russians, this is important. They believe the sanctions will go in, but are betting that the West will lift some of its foot after say, a year. And the West can't convince them that they won't until the Ukrainians have been invaded for a year.

=

Russians have also arrived in the East:

https://t.me/dsszzi_official/976

Edited February 26, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Add more new Ukraine news.

[BletchleyGeek]

I am pretty sure that getting to a crisis point has been part of the game plan (as a contingency or a milestone I don't know) since the civil war in Syria started, if not from the day that Bill Clinton (and George Bush later) laughed off the question put forward by Putin to join NATO.  

Following up the discussions on logistics, saw a video of some Russian soldiers helping themselves to the shelves of a supermarket in Melitopol, and I remembered this very good article I read back in Xmas

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

 

[Andy_101]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway. 

All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted. 

@HaidukI'm glad to hear your okay, mate.  I can't believe what I'm seeing on the news and various other outlets, and I can't imagine how it must be for you and your family, and your country.  

I'm an amateur historical war buff with an interest in gaming, but the reality of your situation in Ukraine has really shocked me, and it's taken me from that distant academic interest to a hard and unrelenting reality.  I'm not entirely sure what I'm trying to say here.  

Please keep your head down and stay safe!  Many are thinking of you.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Hard to say. Putin has been a smooth operator, but perhaps his success and ability to get away with murder has caught up with him.

Its also time to bring up China. By aligning with Putin and allowing Putin to move forces from the flank that was guarding the front with China they should be held to some account. They are trying to play it cool and not come out completely on Putin's side and make statements to the effect that both sides should negotiate, but who are they fooling? I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe the report that they really didn't believe Putin would actually go forward and launch and full scale assault and are not trying to backtrack, but still some punishment is in order.

I say we send Taiwan some Javelins, Stingers and dangle some F-15X's to send a message to China. They are complicit in Putin's venture into Ukraine.

Ok, let’s do China for a minute.  China’s not in the same league as Russia, I am not sure they are even playing the same sport.  China’s trajectory and activities mirror US early days as a rising power in the 19th century, they are in this to win.  Win what Capt?  Win the pen that gets to write the new set of rules.

So What about Ukraine?  Well if you are trying for top dog, it does not mean you just have weight to throw around, you must also lead.  China has done this in its sphere but globally it has been standing back and waiting.  This whole thing is not helping China in my opinion.  They are playing a long game and a kinda-partner lit half the board on fire.  This is damned awkward for them as they are not ready to take over global leadership, they lack the clout or street cred and the US, while a little bruised up, is no where near ready to toss in the towel.  So now Russia starts a ruckus and they are trying desperately to not take a side while looking weak in the process; this does not promote a global leadership image and they cannot break with Russia the next biggest power in the “out club”.

And then there is India..like what the hell guys?!

[db_zero]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, let’s do China for a minute.  China’s not in the same league as Russia, I am not sure they are even playing the same sport.  China’s trajectory and activities mirror US early days as a rising power in the 19th century, they are in this to win.  Win what Capt?  Win the pen that gets to write the new set of rules.

So What about Ukraine?  Well if you are trying for top dog, it does not mean you just have weight to throw around, you must also lead.  China has done this in its sphere but globally it has been standing back and waiting.  This whole thing is not helping China in my opinion.  They are playing a long game and a kinda-partner lit half the board on fire.  This is damned awkward for them as they are not ready to take over global leadership, they lack the clout or street cred and the US, while a little bruised up, is no where near ready to toss in the towel.  So now Russia starts a ruckus and they are trying desperately to not take a side while looking weak in the process; this does not promote a global leadership image and they cannot break with Russia the next biggest power in the “out club”.

And then there is India..like what the hell guys?!

Definitely egg on the face on China. As diplomatically as i can say it to keep this thread open, perhaps both Russia and China were reading too much into domestic US politics and thought they had an advantage and this was a time to make moves and mis-calculated.  It happens.

Just a though but in the end IDK...

As for Putin's end game? I would look at google maps and mark off the urban areas, major rivers and ports and overlay that with what Putin gobbles up. There are the areas where political and economic power flow through.

[melm]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, let’s do China for a minute.  China’s not in the same league as Russia, I am not sure they are even playing the same sport.  China’s trajectory and activities mirror US early days as a rising power in the 19th century, they are in this to win.  Win what Capt?  Win the pen that gets to write the new set of rules.

So What about Ukraine?  Well if you are trying for top dog, it does not mean you just have weight to throw around, you must also lead.  China has done this in its sphere but globally it has been standing back and waiting.  This whole thing is not helping China in my opinion.  They are playing a long game and a kinda-partner lit half the board on fire.  This is damned awkward for them as they are not ready to take over global leadership, they lack the clout or street cred and the US, while a little bruised up, is no where near ready to toss in the towel.  So now Russia starts a ruckus and they are trying desperately to not take a side while looking weak in the process; this does not promote a global leadership image and they cannot break with Russia the next biggest power in the “out club”.

And then there is India..like what the hell guys?!

China actually has no intention to write the new global rules. The fundamental intention is to keep ruling party ruling, just like what they did in the past two thousand years, with emperor, isolated, fed or revolt... Their cultue hasn't changed much.

China indeed has no interest to condemn the Russian invasion because they played their abacus and found that they gained nothing besides moral high ground. Trade war is still going on. US still is blocking China's ambition to take Taiwan, which China thinks it legitimately hers. That's why China takes the stance refusing to condemn the invasion but repeatly concern the integrity of Ukrainian territory. 

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

That's the difference between an West European / US mentality and those more to the east. They think long term. If we accept the premise that NATO will eventually extend a formal invite to Ukraine, and that is worth war to the Russians, then the question changes. Will the Russians be better placed to do this in 2023 or 2025 than today? Is there a date that Putin can look forward to (for example, if they wait until 2025, they might somehow have a competent semiconductor industry)? Suppose at the time of the invitation, they have demobilized. The sooner they get this over with the sooner they can start waiting for the West to lift sanctions.

One problem with the Western strategy is that to the Russians, this is important. They believe the sanctions will go in, but are betting that the West will lift some of its foot after say, a year. And the West can't convince them that they won't until the Ukrainians have been invaded for a year.

Ya, I am not buying the “eastern sage/western squirrel” argument.  I mean there is some truth to the election cycle pendulum but for having “no long term strategic thinking” the west has become the richest and most powerful version of human civilization by any metric (except possibly spiritual).

If Putin is looking into that bowl of water, across the sands of time, he will note that the west is pretty messed up coming out of this pandemic and later might have been better.  Hell, we had pretty much written off Crimea and he needed only a few member states to reject or derail the entry process into NATO.  In short for a “long term strategist” he had a bunch of options he didn’t just leave on the table, he lit them on fire and flushed them down the toilet.

He also completely missed the one thing that really matters to the West, the Deal.  We all got very rich off the Deal and he just pissed all over it.

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, melm said:

China actually has no intention to write the new global rules. The fundamental intention is to keep ruling party ruling, just like what they did in the past two thousand years, with emperor, isolated, fed or revolt... Their cultue hasn't changed much.

China indeed has no interest to condemn the Russian invasion because they played their abacus and found that they gained nothing besides moral high ground. Trade war is still going on. US still is blocking China's ambition to take Taiwan, which China thinks it legitimately hers. That's why China takes the stance refusing to condemn the invasion but repeatly concern the integrity of Ukrainian territory. 

Well if that is true, someone had better tell the US cause they clearly do not see it that way.  I am no economics expert but when a nation is moving to become the global currency reserve (just google it) it is going to have that pen, history backs that up.

Anyway, we probably should stray too far into the China debate or the den mother is going to come in and take our candles away.

[db_zero]

Wow! I'm now seeing the US is willing to evacuate Zelenskyy, but he is refusing to go.

Barring some miracle Putin will take Ukraine, but will it go down as a pyrrhic victory?

[Erwin]

Sanctions finally get serious:  From WSJ:

"The punitive action includes restrictions on Mr. Putin’s ability to travel to the U.S."

[ASL Veteran]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya, I am not buying the “eastern sage/western squirrel” argument.  I mean there is some truth to the election cycle pendulum but for having “no long term strategic thinking” the west has become the richest and most powerful version of human civilization by any metric (except possibly spiritual).

If Putin is looking into that bowl of water, across the sands of time, he will note that the west is pretty messed up coming out of this pandemic and later might have been better.  Hell, we had pretty much written off Crimea and he needed only a few member states to reject or derail the entry process into NATO.  In short for a “long term strategist” he had a bunch of options he didn’t just leave on the table, he lit them on fire and flushed them down the toilet.

He also completely missed the one thing that really matters to the West, the Deal.  We all got very rich off the Deal and he just pissed all over it.

 

It could be just as simple as Putin thought / thinks he can do it quickly with very little fuss.  If he just changes the leadership in Ukraine, then he can turn them into a puppet state and if he can do it quickly without too much effort then he's done what he wanted to do.  He'll just assume everyone forgets after a year or two.  If it turns into a quagmire and an extended war that rages for years like in Afghanistan or something he probably miscalculated.  He apparently has already called for the Ukrainian army to start a coup to get rid of the 'drug addicts and gangsters' or something along those lines - doesn't seem to be many takers on his call to action at the moment though.  So yeah, if he thought Ukraine would just roll over and welcome his armies in then his action makes perfect sense.   

[ASL Veteran]

2 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Sanctions finally get serious:  From WSJ:

"The punitive action includes restrictions on Mr. Putin’s ability to travel to the U.S."

Oww, that one is going to leave a mark.  I guess that trip to visit Times Square will have to be put on hold lol.

[Simcoe]

Let me know if this is too political and I will remove this post. Tinfoil hat time.

I refuse to believe Putin is anything but a smart operator. Every step of the way has been calculated and fairly successful. This means he is privy to information that we aren't.

• China gives tacit support
• Europe/NATO is too weak and divided to counter Russia/China
• That leaves the US. We recently had a president and currently have an entire political party that has worked to undermine NATO, move the US toward an isolationist policy and lift sanctions on Russia. Pretty convenient that midterms are coming up and Joe's poll numbers aren't looking good. Is it really so far fetched that the next administration comes in and quietly reverses sanctions on Russia?

 

[arkhangelsk2021]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hell, we had pretty much written off Crimea and he needed only a few member states to reject or derail the entry process into NATO.

Ah, but can he be confident there will always be at least one member state that will vote no? Remember that from his point of view, the full sovereignty of NATO members is theoretical rather than real. They might not be complete US slaves, but they are in the US "sphere of influence". If the US wants something bad, especially if they've already convinced most of the rest of the gang ... a holdout might not last very long.

The easiest way for any group to demonstrate its independence from another (say a judiciary from the executive, or smaller state v bigger state) is to take decisions that go against them. Of course, mutual interests or the objective correctness of a course of action may mean a pliant decision is not a sign of dependence, but nevertheless it does not demonstrate independence in the way an adverse decision does.

Take the example of Nord Stream 2. From Russia's point of view, first, Nord Stream 2 is nothing more than a pipe. It doesn't mean the Germans have to buy gas from Moscow. It just means if they do they can get it direct, without the risks and costs of passing it through Ukraine. So Germany's interest is to get that pipe finished and approved. They can think about how much gas to buy after that.

Further, they were clearly reluctant to block the pipe to start. Then the US "had some kind of chat" with them, and all of a sudden they a) reversed their decision and b) in a way that's detrimental to them. The US might call this "solidarity" but objectively that's two flags against the idea that the Germans are independent from the US.

And if even a relatively big "partner" can act like this, why would Russia have hopes that they would always have one state that can resist Washington's pressures? All Washington has to do is line the stars up once, and Ukraine will be in NATO...

[ASL Veteran]

This randomly popped up on my You Tube - seems pretty good

 

[ASL Veteran]

 

[Zveroboy1]

 

Putin being some sort of chess mastermind and genius, I don't buy it personally.

He is obviously not stupid, but hasn't it been one of Russia's main goals to undermine Nato and weaken Europe with the financing of European far right parties, mass disinformation and so on?

It can be argued that Nato was running the risk of becoming a dormant alliance and maybe that's overstating my case a little bit but perhaps becoming less relevant.

I am trying to be optimistic in the face of adversity here and it is entirely possible that this is just wishful thinking, but the whole thing could end up being counter productive for Russia if it results in the strengthening of Nato. Countries which were on the fence before might see the writing on the wall more clearly and faced with a growing Russian menace, European nations are likely to increase their military spending. Far from weakening Nato, in the long term this might just rekindle it.

Besides how is Ukraine going to become a docile and compliant puppet buffer state, assuming he succeeds which isn't even guaranteed at this point and that this is the goal in the first place, now with hatred and resentment for Russia in the population higher than ever before?

Then you have the crippling economic sanctions he is likely to be subjected to and the issues with the Russian public opinion and internal turmoil that might erode his grip on power.

The whole thing feels like a risky gamble and more of an opportunistic, ruthless and desperate move than the work of a strategic genius.

Probably like most dictators he is betting on Western democracies being too weak and divided. And while it might appear to be that way, these same dictators in the past have often been proven wrong in the end.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Zveroboy1