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I've got an idea.  Let's NOT trust scientists & doctors who ACTUALLY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. Let's trust Fox news, who've done a stellar job of brainwashing people into being very unsafe

JFC Kettler could you just once not spread your conspiracy bull**** all over the place.  Goddamn man.

Here are some shocking news from the UK. Perhaps @Warts 'n' all can confirm:

Posted Images

On 4/7/2020 at 11:15 PM, Erwin said:

Doesn't matter.  Pandemic virtually guarantees re-election.  Scared people do not switch horses in the middle of crises, but go with what they are familiar with.

We'll see what it looks like in November. If this keeps up for ~6 months and becomes the new normal...

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The big question is who is the alternative.  Biden...?   His moronic son with no experience of anything other than hanging on daddy's coattails gets a $1,000,000 pa job in Ukraine oil company?   One wonders why.  Surely not a brazen attempt to corrupt a potential presidential candidate?  Think of the resentment that many ordinary folks who don't have the advantage of those sort of connections to help their kids will feel about that. 

The problem for the elites who run the Democratic Party is that they have utterly lost touch with their base.  Hence the recent scandal of rich democratic Hollywood actors trying to bribe/buy their kids into elite universities etc.  One presumes that they are surrounded by like-minded elites and simply saw nothing wrong with that cos "everyone (they hang out with) is doing it".  

Bernie was the only viable competition with integrity imo.  

It's easy to criticize with 20/20 hindsight.  But, I well recall the fuss over other threatened pandemics like SARS, bird flu, swine flu, and Zika...  If the US had panicked and gone off the deep end responding to those potential threats just think of the criticisms re destroying the US and world economies for nothing. 

But, in the west, there were a very few tragic cases but compared to annual flu deaths, nothing happened in those potential pandemics, and doing very little turned out to be the correct decision.   Moral: It's very tough to make these calls when making the wrong decision can have devastating consequences.

https://www.syracuse.com/living/2020/02/20-years-of-health-scares-cny-reacts-to-sars-bird-flu-swine-flu-and-zika.html

 

Edited by Erwin
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Its quite clear that people don't care about personal or even family corruption so I don't see any issues with Biden's family. I guess you could make the argument that Trump is uniquely immune to being pinned for his abuses of power but I don't think so. His popularity is largely within a core Republican base.
 

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

If the US had panicked and gone off the deep end responding to those potential threats just think of the criticisms re destroying the US and world economies for nothing. 

There is panic and reasonable caution and preparation. Essentially what we are experiencing is the lack of reasonable caution and preparation. Its the CM equivalent of not sending a forward element in front and then wondering why your entire column of soft-skins got trounced in an ambush. Yes if there had been absolutely no threat you wouldn't be having a problem but it is obvious that there was a threat. See the S. Korean response wherein they quickly ramped up testing and had federal leadership.

---

Generally I think Biden is a weak candidate against a standard Republican but against Donald Trump I don't see him as particularly weak. Trump is unique but that also makes him uniquely vulnerable.



IIRC during Ebola the National Stockpile had nearly 100 million masks and the balance of those were handed out and not replenished after the fact. Partially that had to do with funding and preparing for other more dramatic problems. But I would think the full power of the United States Government would be at least as aware of potential issues as early as December if not sooner. Simply buying up some additional stock as a precaution would not be financially devastating or particular difficult that early.
 

Edited by com-intern
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On 4/9/2020 at 10:38 PM, Erwin said:

Well, that is clearly indisputable and irrefutable proof that no one can argue with.  Case closed your honor.  Get the black cap on..   ^_^

look just be glad I didnt take the Cicero litigation

"yes your honor, but may I remind the jury this mans wife is a slut!"

judge: 'lol your right case closed.'

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17 hours ago, Erwin said:

The big question is who is the alternative.  Biden...?   His moronic son with no experience of anything other than hanging on daddy's coattails gets a $1,000,000 pa job in Ukraine oil company?   One wonders why.  Surely not a brazen attempt to corrupt a potential presidential candidate?  Think of the resentment that many ordinary folks who don't have the advantage of those sort of connections to help their kids will feel about that. 

The problem for the elites who run the Democratic Party is that they have utterly lost touch with their base.  Hence the recent scandal of rich democratic Hollywood actors trying to bribe/buy their kids into elite universities etc.  One presumes that they are surrounded by like-minded elites and simply saw nothing wrong with that cos "everyone (they hang out with) is doing it".  

Bernie was the only viable competition with integrity imo.  

It's easy to criticize with 20/20 hindsight.  But, I well recall the fuss over other threatened pandemics like SARS, bird flu, swine flu, and Zika...  If the US had panicked and gone off the deep end responding to those potential threats just think of the criticisms re destroying the US and world economies for nothing. 

But, in the west, there were a very few tragic cases but compared to annual flu deaths, nothing happened in those potential pandemics, and doing very little turned out to be the correct decision.   Moral: It's very tough to make these calls when making the wrong decision can have devastating consequences.

https://www.syracuse.com/living/2020/02/20-years-of-health-scares-cny-reacts-to-sars-bird-flu-swine-flu-and-zika.html

 

'hanging off daddys coattails..'

you just  perfectly described trump

corrupt family?

trump.  at least biden probably would have the class to not openly force their security clearance and force install them in WH positions.

I agree Biden sucks. terrible candidate.  The problem is trump is downright dangerous to america in my opinion.  And not in the benign way biden may be, like dementia.  Trump I really can see setting the stage for the GOP refusing to step down.  Theres a lot of theories on this that sound kettlerian but hear me out a little - I havent made my mind up either

any idiot can see the GOP is being bred out of existence.  They wont have a platform or voters in 30 years.

Unless....  Gerrymandering, and other things, and then if they get total control, and after perhaps changing LOTS of judges and rules, simply refusing to leave power,  or demanding some new government structure 'to protect their voters' or somesuch

Look at what theyre doing now before I get shouted down for dramatics.  Like many people who lack empathy I believe trump gauges other peoples reactions. trial balloons.  They like it he does it. horrified 'heyyy just joking!'  he keeps 'joking' about extra terms.  he also keeps 'joking' about his love for dictatorships over our allies and LOTS of other stuff youd have never stopped hearing about but he sets a new fire everyday.  So what are they doing?  Well already shutting the fed govt down over politics.  Already gerrymandering and voter suppression..   Denying russian help and outright asking china to do the same.  Helsinki.  The Nork stuff. The unprecedented actions of the gop in the 8 years of obama culminating in the criminal actions of depriving Garland his SCOTUS seat.  McConnel when asked a year ago what the GOP would do in the exact same position roles reversed smiled and said 'we would fill it in a heartbeat'.  The whole 'let us in' charade by gop congressmen complaining about 'secret hearings'? those secret hearings were framework put in place BY the GOP during the benghazi era. Also half the congressmen were allowed in! and hadnt been attending the hearings anyways! BTW does ANYONE have a SINGLE time trump took responsibility FOR ANYTHING? AT ALL?  Because I clearly remember HRC after all being said and done about benghazi and it being painfully clear she didnt deny forces and there were none around still said 'its my responsibility. I was head of the DoD and the buck stopped with me.'  Thats a million more percent of leadership than djt ever had.

on HRC - shes not super likeable and not my favorite.  That said she did 11 hours of congressional testimony. djt wasnt even trusted to be interviewed privately without perjuring himself! this is our POTUS!! I dont get the gop obsession with hillary btw.  Its bizarre. 30 years of a microscope and they got bill getting a bj. thats about it.  I doubt djt would stand to true scrutiny of the last 4 years let alone last 30.

Edited by Sublime
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19 hours ago, com-intern said:

See the S. Korean response wherein they quickly ramped up testing and had federal leadership.

Cannot disagree that S Korea and Taiwan and Japan were better prepared.  But that was certainly due to the fact that they have to be prepared for imminent chem/bio attack by N. Korea or China.

Am thinking that there are two types of folks.  Those who dislike Trump cos of what he says and how he says it, and those who only care about what he actually does, and find his performance on TV to be hugely entertaining and want to keep that wonderful TV show going as long as possible. 

So, perhaps change the constitution to allow a third term?   :P

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I do miss Bernie.  We would have been given the opportunity for some very interesting and needed debates re inequality, healthcare etc.  He was screwed by Hillary and the Dem machine in 2016, and am shocked that some of the other firebrand candidates like Elizabeth Warren didn't support Bernie when they were forced to drop out (for what seemed like vindictive meanness).  They did the US a huge disservice by backing Biden who hasn't a hope in hell.

However, Bernie raised an amazing $181 million with most donations being under $200.  Am thinking that most of that is still unspent.  Can he use that to fund an organization that promotes his ideas, or even to fund running again in 2024?   

 

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5 minutes ago, Erwin said:

I do miss Bernie.  We would have been given the opportunity for some very interesting and needed debates re inequality, healthcare etc.  He was screwed by Hillary and the Dem machine in 2016, and am shocked that some of the other firebrand candidates like Elizabeth Warren didn't support Bernie when they were forced to drop out (for what seemed like vindictive meanness).  They did the US a huge disservice by backing Biden who hasn't a hope in hell.

However, Bernie raised an amazing $181 million with most donations being under $200.  Am thinking that most of that is still unspent.  Can he use that to fund an organization that promotes his ideas, or even to fund running again in 2024?   

 

Erwin bernie would never have beem elected.

Theres tape of him buying in wholeheartedly.to soviet propagamda in a USSR visit in 87.  Thatd be devastating.  Trump was supposedly planning to make his election fight socialism "whether or not the drms were socialist"

Bernie would habe beem the perfect bogeyman

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Old school pols like Biden with the same old tired ideas and lots of wishy washy talk that the electorate no longer believes, are exactly what the electorate rejected in 2016.  Biden represents the last gasp of the obsolete Dem machine that planned to give lots of lucrative jobs to their pals.  Yes, the new blood had to drop out this year.  But, after another 4 years of Trump, am sure the Dem Party will experience an internal revolt/revolution and the new younger, more aggressive candidates will be back in 2024.

What good works Bernie could do with what's left over from the $181 million he raised:  

"...those running for federal office — including presidential candidates ... can donate an unlimited amount to a charity or political party. "

Hopefully, Bernie will start his own charity to propagate his ideas.  Would be surprised if he gave any to the Dems after the way he was treated last time.

https://www.factcheck.org/2008/02/leftover-campaign-funds/

And at least there is this opportunity for a really bang up funeral (ashes strewn on Mars?):  "Campaign funds can be used to cover funeral, cremation and burial expenses for a candidate..."

 

Edited by Erwin
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1 hour ago, Erwin said:

I do miss Bernie.  We would have been given the opportunity for some very interesting and needed debates re inequality, healthcare etc.  He was screwed by Hillary and the Dem machine in 2016, and am shocked that some of the other firebrand candidates like Elizabeth Warren didn't support Bernie when they were forced to drop out (for what seemed like vindictive meanness).  They did the US a huge disservice by backing Biden who hasn't a hope in hell.

However, Bernie raised an amazing $181 million with most donations being under $200.  Am thinking that most of that is still unspent.  Can he use that to fund an organization that promotes his ideas, or even to fund running again in 2024?   

 

My issue with Bernie is he plays fast and loose with numbers.  He sounds good, then you start parsing the actual data and it becomes smoke and mirrors.  Not to make the comparison too close to Trump but the demagogue approach isn't any better from the left than from the right.  Regarding Biden- Hey Ivanka did a shot of herself at the Family hotel in Baku - funded by laundered money from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and in partnership with a guy it is illegal to do business with by US law.  We are so far past the trivial potential line of corruption that you noted it isn't even funny.  It's like saying hey Biden's son just stole a gumball from the corner grocery store while the current Prez is beating up and stealing from Seniors in assisted living facilities.  

Biden would not be my first choice.  Maybe not my second or third.  But I'd vote for a dog turd over the orange pumpkin in the WH now.  Trump is in way over his head.  He's a lousy businessman and a con artist.  That I might even be able to live with if he would just shut up and let professionals do their job, but he somehow believes he is an expert on everything. The result, f'd up decision after f'd up decision and he just blames some one else all the time if things go wrong. A true leader stands up and says, my call.  I'll follow the advice of the professional but at the end of the day if things go wrong I own it.  Trump has no moral compass at all, no empathy and is an ego centric hopelessly flawed individual  The really sad thing is his own base is a good portion of the most vulnerable segment of society for the virus and his performance and behavior is putting their lives at risk.  Whatever one has to say about California and our sometimes crazy rules, look at what our numbers are doing.  We shocked the nation with the Bay area locking down on March 16th and the state on March 19th.  NY waited until March 21st.  Many Red states kept debating it and waited on Trump to make a decision as our national leader which he still has yet to do.  He'll blame the governors for not declaring fast enough if it does get really bad and take credit for not declaring if it ends up not being as severe as projected.  That isn't leadership.  Biden for whatever faults he has would have made the call and taken the heat.  Trump is a coward.

Numbers as of this morning

State           First case    Infected    Deaths

Calif                1/25           21,374        598

Louisiana         3/9            20,014        806

Florida             3/1            18,494          438

Texas               3/4            12,561         254

Georgia            3/2             12,159         428

New York          3/1          170,512         8,627

 

Edited by sburke
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9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Biden for whatever faults he has would have made the call and taken the heat. 

Where's the evidence for that?  It's all conjecture and the fact is that no one knows how a candidate will perform until he's in the job.  We all had such high hopes for Obama, but it turned out he was only good at making speeches while the ship was sinking...  

"Political party strength in New York. New York is a Democratic stronghold and one of the three largest Democratic states alongside California and Illinois."   So yes, your NY data is a big criticism of their governance.

Could you do a write in "Dog Turd" candidate?  Maybe that would get as many votes as Mickey Mouse?  I vaguely recall she was a candidate and won someplace so they had to change the rules lol.

Since 2020 election is basically a foregone conclusion, am thinking about 2024.  One interesting candidate would be John Huntsman.  Very useful experience in China and Russia and also as a Governor.  I think he's running again in Utah.  My wife worked on his last governor run and I got to meet and chat with him and for a politician, John (we're on first name terms natch) seemed like a very decent sort of chap who has genuinely dedicated his life to public service.  The Mormons mostly hate him as he's relatively liberal, so that's another point in his favor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman_Jr.

 

Edited by Erwin
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12 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Where's the evidence for that?  It's all conjecture and the fact is that no one knows how a candidate will perform until he's in the job.  We all had such high hopes for Obama, but it turned out he was only good at making speeches while the ship was sinking...  

What the fk are you talking about?  Obama led the effort that bailed out the country and kept the panic of 2008 from sending the country into a depression.  And Biden was there as his VP.    The ship was sinking when he took over and he turned it around and for most of his presidency the economy was on a rise - which Trump likes to try and take credit for.  Granted yeah he was a lot more middle of the road than those who voted for him would have liked, but look what he had to deal with.  A hostile GOP that was determined to make sure he couldn't do anything including blocking a Supreme Court nomination for an entire f'n year!

 

The country can only wish now that the ACA was enacted as originally conceived.  Even the neutered version is still our best option to make sure people have healthcare now.

 

Quote

"Political party strength in New York. New York is a Democratic stronghold and one of the three largest Democratic states alongside California and Illinois."   So yes, your NY data is a big criticism of their governance.

Perhaps.  I think NY took too long to make the call to lock down completely.  They waffled and they are paying the price.  On the other hand their leadership has been there, taking the heat, making the effort to develop a coordinated response, doing briefings that are intelligent and informative and not a "ratings hype".  Cuomo has stepped up into the job.  The objective of the numbers above wasn't to paint a red vs blue picture, but rather the relative impact on lock down.  California has managed to flatten the curve.  Many of the states I noted and the ones you noted are not.  They are dealing with a major spike and I think you will see other states follow that,  I know they are suggesting the total deaths is now expected in the 60,000 range versus 100k or more.  I think they are getting ahead of themselves.  Even for CA we have a tough call to make about when to loosen restrictions - could we just be delaying a spike to come?  If the Prz had made a declaration earlier it would have been beneficial for states like LA and Florida where many folks are taking their lead from Trump.  He says it is all a fake thing and the 15 infected will soon turn to nothing and they will not take any steps to protect themselves.  If he'd said early what his own staff had reported in January and followed CA's lead many of his followers would have treated this differently.  His childish refusal to even meet with Pelosi to develop the bill is classic.  This is a moment when our leadership needed to be united.  I'll give Mnuchin some credit here even if I dislike the man for doing the right thing. 

Edited by sburke
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15 minutes ago, sburke said:

Numbers as of this morning

State           First case    Deaths    Infected

Calif                1/25           21,374        598

Louisiana         3/9            20,014        806

Florida             3/1            18,494          438

Texas               3/4            12,561         254

Georgia            3/2             12,159         428

New York          3/1          170,512         8,627

Are the deaths and infected reversed up above?  

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Don't worry about it.  It's just more fake news.

B)

Reading through the chats we are having are is actually very entertaining.  Maybe we all here should start our own political blog - see how many (hopefully $ subscribing) followers we get?  

Edited by Erwin
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IMO its undeniable that stronger Federal leadership would have been beneficial across the board. Leaving to individual States and sometimes individual Cities is not the best way to battle a nation-wide epidemic. Trump, unfortunately is not the sort of President who would make any sort of self-sacrifice to better the Nation and would never be ahead of the curve in something like this because it could have damaged his relection chances.

Which is one of the most damning things about Trump as a leader, and I think a direct result of his previous occupation as essentially selling his personal brand. If you are making a living essentially on your name you necessarily need to protect it even if that means making poor decisions. More broadly I do not trust business men moving into government as I'm not at all convinced it prepares you for the requirements of high office. However, Donald Trump is even worse off because his business is essentially a personal dictactorship wherein he sold his brand to make personal real-estate deals. He obviously doesn't deal with long-term planning, supply chains, markets, etc...

Edited by com-intern
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Hyman Minsky the legendary Wall Street analyst and Professor of Economics used to say back in the 90s that Trump was the ultimate Ponzi Schemer. He lived completely check-to-check off of appreciation from borrowed assets, and had nearly been ruined by a recession in the early 90s. By the 2000s Trump had diversified from real-estate into entertainment and branding, and so was far less vulnerable to the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis even though quite a bit of security in 2008 was because his Casino business had failed in 2006 leaving him with fewer real-estate ties than he would've had otherwise. Trump Tower Chicago was his biggest problem in 2008 but he was able to able to win a 5 year extension on payments to the Tower's chief backer, Deutsche Bank AG, (for which he was personally liable by $40 million) by claiming that the 2008 Financial Crisis absolved him of repayment obligations. He was unable to escape paying DB back entirely, but his unscrupulous methods enabled him to survive long enough to come up with enough money to ward them off in an out of court settlement years later. 

Trump's history in politics is worrying under any light. The man has never held a consistent message or idea since he first began to foray into politics a year or so after Barack Obama's first year as President. In 2009 he described Barack Obama as "a strong guy who knows what he wants" and that "I thought he (Obama) did a terrific job". Trump could not even withhold himself in 2009 from lauding the Obama Stimulus package or American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 saying that "it had to be done" and that "had trillions of dollars not been poured into the banks, you would have an insolvent banking system and then you would have 1929. They did the right thing." This was an act that the rest of the Republican Party decried as Socialism to the core and fought tooth and nail against. Republican leadership was always lukewarm to Trump of course but I doubt it was because of his established history of playing to whatever side suited him at the time. In any case it's well known that the Republican Party and Donald Trump do not have a good relationship with each other,  but the Republican Party made a major mistake betting against Trump in 2012 and again in 2016. 

From 2009 to 2012 though it was hard to perceive the Republican Party's transition away from the party of Globalized Big Businessmen and Greenspan-types into the Party of American Reactionaries. Trump crucially perceived this and needed no greater proof of it than Mitt Romney's humiliating failure against Barack Obama in 2012. Romney never could've failed to achieve victory in 1998 or even in 2004 but like many in the Republican Party he had been every bit as ignorant of what the Tea Party's existence meant, same as the Democrats' ignorance of what Bernie Sanders meant. Both of these parties were suffering from significant bouts of internal factionalism and low-key Civil War emerging from the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. These flare ups could be expected as routine events for the next several years and Trump could see that a big one was going to coincide with the 2016 Presidential Elections. 

By 2013 his tone had changed completely and ominously toward the Birther Conspiracy accusing Barack Obama of being a Kenyan national and therefore that his entire Presidency as illegitimate. The very actions the Obama Administration took that Trump approved of in 2009 have now become everything from "Socialist" to "just very bad". I think it's clear that Trump's history is that of a shameless and self important opportunist, adept at escaping any kind of accountability or responsibility for his actions. His single minded preoccupation is entirely anchored, as com-intern says, on selling his brand. Pushing his big, gold encrusted name at every turn. He's no Dictator I think, he's not a strong man and he doesn't directly cultivate any kind of tough-guy image. I don't think he really fits the description of being a Dictator at all really, he doesn't really have the delusions of grandeur necessary for it. All he seems to care about is staying out of trouble and avoiding blame or directing it onto someone else. He's actually quite benign overall, but i'm more worried about what comes after him. 

 

Edited by SimpleSimon
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Apparently, the US intercepted Chinese communication regarding CV fatalities--at least 20.9 MILLION for period of December 2019 to March 2020 as detailed in a classified report to President Trump. The Chinese officially reported a microscopic 3300!

https://web.archive.org/web/20200406190917/https://n5ti.com/health/1233/

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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