THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM

[Erwin]

Emirates is onto something here.  Hope they can test for other things like colds and flu. 

Flying absolutely sucks these days thanks to TSA and long lines and discomfort of traveling like cattle.  But, the chance to get sick as well, pretty much made me use ships to go transatlantic for the past few years...  now one can't do that either... 

 

[Holien]

26 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Emirates is onto something here.  Hope they can test for other things like colds and flu. 

Flying absolutely sucks these days thanks to TSA and long lines and discomfort of traveling like cattle.  But, the chance to get sick as well, pretty much made me use ships to go transatlantic for the past few years...  now one can't do that either... 

 

I think business models are going to have to change and I would be happy to be tested. Pity our government is not this far ahead, but that is bureaucracy for you...

Private enterprise gets the job done especially when money is involved...

 

[nik mond]

On 4/16/2020 at 1:09 PM, Erwin said:

Anyone notice the reporter's question yesterday in the WH briefing re Covid-19 starting as a Chinese Bio research virus that escaped?

 

 

China is the worlds major manufacturer and exporter of phages. These are virus engineered to attack bacteria and used for agricultural purposes to eradicate certain blights. Other countries produce and sell phages as well. Its nothing new. From what I searched I didn't find anything relating this to Covid.

[Erwin]

I suspect that now people are more used to telecommuting and working at home, that will become more common at the expense of air travel.  And that would be a good - make the airlines compete finally on quality.  I was amazed flying some of the middle east airlines how superior they were in every respect, planes, lounges, service, staff, food etc than the US or European airlines.  Have you flown European "business class" - just a typical uncomfortable economy seat and legroom - but with an empty seat next to you.  

[sburke]

On 4/17/2020 at 1:14 PM, Erwin said:

I suspect that now people are more used to telecommuting and working at home, that will become more common at the expense of air travel.  And that would be a good - make the airlines compete finally on quality.  I was amazed flying some of the middle east airlines how superior they were in every respect, planes, lounges, service, staff, food etc than the US or European airlines.  Have you flown European "business class" - just a typical uncomfortable economy seat and legroom - but with an empty seat next to you.  

It varies.  I work for a consulting company and travel has been a major part of doing business.  Folks are adapting creatively but it still hinders ability to do business.  I have traveled a lot in my role to the point of hitting 100k a couple years back.  Last few years it has dropped off as we completed the overall infrastructure build, but last spring I did a couple trips to India, a few to NY etc.  For the India trip I got an ANA flight with layover in Narita.  I love ANA.  Far superior to United business, but you pay for that.  I hated Air France Business.  Lufthansa is not bad, British Airways was bizarre.  They had alternating front and back facing seats and you were in what felt like a horizontal phone booth. I did two 3 week trips visiting various countries in Africa about 4 years ago - hit Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Algeria, Nigeria, South Africa, Turkey & Dubai (layovers).  You haven't experienced anything till you hit Lagos airport...… You'll beg for Heathrow and Kennedy. I have never experienced such blatant corruption.  They don't think twice about asking for payoffs and bribes.  As much as you think our service may be bad - we are spoiled.  You just haven't tried the really really fun places  

Travel was interesting at first, but after a while it is just more of the same over and over living in a hotel that looks like any other hotel, spending time in cramped seating even if in business sitting for 8 to 12 hours straight isn't fun.  My wife was able to travel for a bit with me and that made a huge difference.  She'd find stuff during the weekday and on the weekend we would do a couple touristy things.  With her not along I was never motivated enough.  I'd walk around a bit but never see a whole lot. Middle East airlines are generally heavily subsidized off oil, don't expect the level of service there to last.  Dubai is frantically trying to make itself an investment center to compete with NY and London, but if oil values decline, the desert is gonna reclaim all that space.

Don't expect to see Airlines competing with service for a bit.  They are going to be struggling to stay afloat as the return to anything approaching normal travel is gonna take months at least. The only upside for them is fuel may be cheaper for a while. 

 

[Erwin]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

British Airways was bizarre

...BA has tried hard to become a crappy low cost airline and have cut frills even in First Class (food is worse and less than a decade ago and you have to know to ask for a sleep suit on long haul or you don't get) and been successful at this goal of spreading misery. 

The window seats in Biz are at least private but as you say cramped and NOWHERE to put your stuff!  If with a pal, the rearward facing center seats allow for space and an almost private cabin-like experience.  Great if you get one of those center "suites" by yourself as well.  Not so great if shared with a stranger who smells or is sick.

Good to know about ANA. Haven't flown them or Singapore.  But, Emirates, Qatar, Oman Air are wonderful and have terrific lounges eg:

 that make BA's much vaunted Concorde Lounge look like a crappy truckstop.

Even Turkish and Egyptair are now better than BA.  Problem is that when one books with AA transatlantic (esp when using AAdvantage) they usually dump one onto a BA flight. 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Erwin

[Erwin]

To bring things back to topic:

I never thought I’d be stuck in the UT-AZ desert for so long and didn’t want the 2 year commitment with DirecTV or DISH, so am getting all my news from Netflix and entertainment from the daily Trump Briefings. 

As far as I can tell these are the main characters in this long-running soap opera:

Trump:  The fascinating press briefings scenes should be used to help keep one’s brain active.  If you can follow the convoluted statements and complex syntax/sentence structure and still recall the original question, you pass the acuity test.  (It keeps my mind in great shape, but my head hurts.)

The VP: Mr. Zero Personality/Presence.  Lurking at the edge of the screen when Trump is on and acting ineffectually to usher the other more informed speakers around.  Poor twit probably thinks he’ll get nominated for a 2024 run.

Dr Fauci:  Good speaker and comforting/reassuring.  But one can easily be distracted by the fact he is either a Leprechaun or one of the Keebler elves.

Head of CDC “Whatshisname”:  This is “Sleepy” straight from Snow While and the 7 Dwarves/Dwarfs.  Has his eyes closed half the time.  Makes me feel "Dopey"and I can’t remember a single useful thing he’s said.    

The “Admiral”: His blue overalls perfectly complement this sailor’s piercing eyes and his penetrating gaze surely gives everyone a shiver in the WeHo club scene. He must be saying something useful, but all I can do is drown in those baby blues.

Dr. Birx:  30-40 years ago… a hotty fer sure.  Without any doubt the most dynamic and best performer of them all.  She brings excitement and renewed energy when she (finally) is allowed to the podium and with xnt charts she conveys 90% of the useful info at these briefings.  Just how many silk scarves can this woman own?  Need to send her your wives’ spares asap before she runs out.  Actually… Deborah looks and acts very “Presidential” and would have done (and could still do) better as a female candidate than Hillary.  Am getting a Birx blow job… I mean blow up poster to hang in my bedroom.

Hope this compelling show gets renewed for another season or two...

Edited April 19, 2020 by Erwin

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Hope this compelling show gets renewed for another season or two...

err season or two more of this?   Yikes man.   

I don't watch those briefings.  Like nails on a chalkboard.  Have to admit to watching as little news as possible.  I generally prefer to read stuff than be recited to regardless of topic so I have my sub to the NY Times.  Some interesting articles I have seen on the banking system in India for example and how this lockdown may push them over the edge.  The knock on effects of the global lockdown are pretty scary as so many pieces of the supply chains and consumer purchasing pipelines are just completely broken right now that how we come out of this is really anyone's guess.  China's industry may be coming out of lockdown, but US consumers are likely to be holding their wallets closed with so many out of work and at risk.  Without a vaccine the likelihood that a second cycle of infections will start is almost guaranteed.  Somehow we need to find a set of behaviors that limits transmission while still allowing people to go back to work.  How we do that though is hard to figure.  Florida beaches aren't exactly a good example.

 

Oh and regarding UAE states and lounges, keep in mind they still have virtual slave labor where they hold immigrant folks passports and segregate them.  I was in Dubai and got to see a little of that.  Pretty f'd up.

Edited April 19, 2020 by sburke

[Erwin]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

...keep in mind they still have virtual slave labor where they hold immigrant folks passports and segregate them. 

Not of course anything like China's kinder, gentler "virtual" concentration camps for miilions of Uihhurs:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/24/china-cables-leak-no-escapes-reality-china-uighur-prison-camp

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/26/uighur-concentration-camps-surveillance-spies-china-control/

Re the economic issues this may be a huge strategic opportunity to beat back China's expansionist aims - like Nazi Germany in the 30's.  If the US can bounce back first, the US gets to dominate world trade and lock China out.  If the US opens too early it could be crippled by a 2nd pandemic wave.  So, it's believable that there are much higher stakes on the table here and very difficult decisions with long lasting implications for the west as a whole.  That's what makes this such a compelling TV show.

Also recommended in "Money Heist" on Netflix about  a bunch of subversives' attempt to steal a Billion Euros from the Spanish Mint, and then (next season) rob the country's gold reserves.    

Probable sequel will be to rob the WTO of it's self-respect.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Erwin

[kevinkin]

•  

2 hours ago, sburke said:

China's industry may be coming out of lockdown, but US consumers are likely to be holding their wallets closed with so many out of work and at risk.  Without a vaccine the likelihood that a second cycle of infections will start is almost guaranteed.  Somehow we need to find a set of behaviors that limits transmission while still allowing people to go back to work.  How we do that though is hard to figure.  Florida beaches aren't exactly a good example.

Other than NYC, the country can go back to those common behaviors tomorrow. Why have we become a country of pussies? This is a fight against those who kiss China's communist party's ass and those who love free market capitalism and hate China (not the Chinese). It's also a fight between those who paid attention in school and those who didn't. I live at the epicenter in Monmouth County NJ and we don't know anyone infected by this virus. We know hundreds who are affected by it due to poor planning by 30 years of leftist rule in NJ. You guys Whiffed at Russia. You Whiffed at Ukraine.  ...  (btw acting like 12 year olds in the case of Russia). Strike three and your out on the Virus (miss MLB btw) ... Trump will be number 46. He will hit all you screw balls out of the park.  

[sburke]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

• Other than NYC, the country can go back to those common behaviors tomorrow. 

Nice to know your well founded scientific opinion is so clear.  Just in case you hadn't noticed though the numbers of infected and dead are still rising.  Sure go ahead back to work tomorrow and ignore all the freakin science people who actually KNOW something.  As you go on about politics remember the virus doesn't give a sh*t who you voted for, just whether you are stupid enough to be irrational.  We just passed 40,000 dead and we aren't' anywhere near peak.

 

US numbers

first death Feb 29th

April 6th 10,000

April 11th 20,000

April 16th 30,000

April 19th 40,000

My state has done a great job of acting early and keeping our health care system sound, but it comes at a cost and sooner or later we need to have a better long term strategy as a vaccine is likely a year away.  I don't know the answer to that.  Financially I think the US should consider doing something like WW2 - sell war bonds to fight the virus.  The cost of this is going to be huge and Americans are gonna need help to dig out.

That is great no one you know is infected.  Now don't be so ignorant to assume just because you don't personally know anyone that it is no big deal. Talk to someone at your local hospital and ask them about it.  My mother is an ex ER nurse and has friends who have come out of retirement to volunteer and their stories are harsh.  I sincerely hope no one you know is ever affected, but I'll be curious when it does if you'll come back here and say "sorry folks if I came off as an ignorant fool, a pandemic is something you can't just brush off until you are personally affected".

 

@Erwin Money heist is great, watching that now.  Thinking to go back and watch Homeland all the way through.  I only saw the first 3 seasons.

[MOS:96B2P]

 

4 hours ago, Erwin said:

Also recommended in "Money Heist" on Netflix about  a bunch of subversives' attempt to steal a Billion Euros from the Spanish Mint, and then (next season) rob the country's gold reserves.   

 

27 minutes ago, sburke said:

Thinking to go back and watch Homeland all the way through.  I only saw the first 3 seasons.

Speaking of Netflix, which is kind of important with quarantine etc.  I was reading the comments in an online Al Jazeera article a few months back and came across a very interesting show called Fauda.  It means chaos in Arabic and is the panic code word for an elite group of Israeli commandos that conduct undercover operations in the West Bank, Gaza etc.  The show also portrays Palestinian families who are caught in between the Israeli military, Palestinian authority, Hamas and others.  Season three just started a few days ago.  I highly recommend the show.     

Edited April 20, 2020 by MOS:96B2P

[kevinkin]

What a coward you are! @sburke

Edited April 20, 2020 by kevinkin

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

What a coward you are! @sburke

That may be the most moronic post I have ever seen on this forum.  Congratulations  

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

It's also a fight between those who paid attention in school and those who didn't.

Failed at science?

[kevinkin]

Bring up your mother in a forum thread = coward..

And i have more patents in Chemistry than you have brains cells. 

Kevin

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Bring up your mother in a forum thread = coward..

And i have more patents in Chemistry than you have brains cells. 

Kevin

 

I brought up my mother as she has nursing friends in actual hospitals with actual experience.  Good on you with your patents but I don't give a sh*t.  When did you become the forum tantrum child?

[kevinkin]

Back when you became Edward e Newman ... the original dick head. 

[MOS:96B2P]

Before this thread is locked I would like to make one more post.    Please read below.  Very cool show.  

25 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Speaking of Netflix, which is kind of important with quarantine etc.  I was reading the comments in an online Al Jazeera article a few months back and came across a very interesting show called Fauda.  It means chaos in Arabic and is the panic code word for an elite group of Israeli commandos that conduct undercover operations in the West Bank, Gaza etc.  The show also portrays Palestinian families who are caught in between the Israeli military, Palestinian authority, Hamas and others.  Season three just started a few days ago.  I highly recommend the show.     

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by MOS:96B2P

[kevinkin]

It's not going to be locked edward e newman and I are just going back and forth like we do every year or so. 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

It's not going to be locked edward e newman and I are just going back and forth like we do every year or so. 

Nah sorry not wasting anymore of my time on this.  I believe what the scientific community overwhelmingly tells me.  You believe what you want.  And that is Sir Alfred to you.  Okay so he isn't knighted, but he should be.

[kevinkin]

Say Hi to Mom. I hope you and everyone are OK. There is a 99.9% chance they are  .... 

But you are a coward bringing her into the conversation. What a dick head you are. Come to grips with it. 

Kevin

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Say Hi to Mom. I hope you and everyone are OK. There is a 99.9% chance they are  .... 

But you are a coward bringing her into the conversation. What a dick head you are. Come to grips with it. 

Kevin

What has her being my mom got to do with it?  She is a source.  WTF is wrong with you dude?  If it had been my brother, my next door neighbor, my third cousin twice removed that would have been okay?  WTF?!  You are seriously unhinged.  Come to grips with that.

 

And for someone with chemistry patents, it is fascinating you gave a percentage when pretty much everyone admits our testing has been woefully inadequate.

In reality the testing so far is no where near as complacent as your picture.  Science.  Freakin amazing.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/

 

The test-positivity rate, then, is a decent (if unusual) proxy for the severity of an outbreak in an area. And it shows clearly that the U.S. still lags far behind other countries in the course of fighting its outbreak. South Korea—which discovered its first coronavirus case on the same day as the U.S.—has tested more than half a million people, or about 1 percent of its population, and discovered about 10,500 cases. The U.S. has now tested 3.2 million people, which is also about 1 percent of its population, but it has found more than 630,000 cases. So while the U.S. has a 20 percent positivity rate, South Korea’s is only about 2 percent—a full order of magnitude smaller.

Edited April 20, 2020 by sburke

[nik mond]

Bostom Asymptomatic Cluster Testing Positive (link)

On CTV today Dr Sharkawi was asked about a cluster of people in Boston who tested positive and had no symptoms and were fine. He suggested it could be a sign of the virus mutating, then he quickly added it was too early to tell and ended the topic.

The thought occurred to me, could this be a tamer Covid 19 vers 1.1 starting to spread? If people are asymptomatic, could this be the beginning to the end of Covid as we know it? One can hope it would certainly be quicker than waiting for the vaccine.   (sadly everyone with an earlier strain will still have to suffer as we know too well).

Edited April 20, 2020 by nik mond

[kevinkin]

47 minutes ago, sburke said:

What has her being my mom got to do with it?  She is a source.  WTF is wrong with you dude?  If it had been my brother, my next door neighbor, my third cousin twice removed that would have been okay?  WTF?!  You are seriously unhinged.  Come to grips with that.

You are using your mom as a "Source". Now we have the Dan Rather of Battlefront.com . You discounted my patents. I will not discount your mom. This is a public forum for wargaming . Keep the family out of it ... OK? Punk. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by kevinkin

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

You are using your mom as a "Source". Now we have the Dan Rather of Battlefront.com . You discounted my patents. I will not discount your mom. This is a public forum for wargaming . Keep the family out of it ... OK? Punk. 

Punk? Really?  What's with the schoolyard name calling in every post? What's next,  you gonna threaten to come beat me up after class? You were the one who said no one you know is affected I assume that includes your family.  So which is it?  Leave family in or out?  Or are you gonna insist on having it both ways? I included my mom to relate a specific story of the experience her friends are having. It was anecdotal and part of suggesting you talk to some of the health care workers near you. Which I guess you ignored. Yes she is a source, discount her if you like, not important.  But at least have the balls to ask an actual health worker near you for an informed opinion about what is going on in your community.

And yes it is a public forum and this is the general discussion portion of it with a non wargaming topic that concerns us all.  If my mother, or my uncle, or my wife has experience relevant to the topic I'll include it.  You don't like it, don't read it.