The_MonkeyKing

EVERYTHING has been six months later than it should have been because someone with real influence thinks Putin can be persuaded to make a rational deal to withdraw to 2/24 lines and try to move back towards some semblance of pre war relations. Even SCHOLZ has finally figured out this isn't happening. We need to finally realize that the only two limitations on what to give Ukraine should be what the factories can produce, and what the trains can haul. The Russians simply need to be smashed so badly the don't think about doing this again for ~fifty years. 

Diversion in Crimea is not significant, delay can be about 4 hours. Damaged locomotive it's good. Near Melitopol it's more serious, but maximum one day ot delay - this is a bridge through smalll river. Russian has powerful railway troops, which can quickly repair such damages.  

Phone/tablet screens are to small. Awareness and feeling where you are (as a drone) is much better when it's full view. Hence why such an insane precision with them. Furthermore if it's two cameras - that's a 3D image which allows you discern details even better.

Latest drop from Perun:
 

AI summary: The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun, focusing on Zaporizhzhia but with pressure across the front. It's too early to draw conclusions. Expectations and objectives are unclear, and Russian defenses shouldn't be underestimated. Ukrainian units are facing challenges due to mobilization and lack of air support. Breaching operations are difficult, and attrition is expected. The battles will likely last for weeks and months. Western support and donations are crucial for Ukraine's success. The situation is uncertain, and patience is needed to see the outcome. This will be a long and challenging summer for Ukraine.

AI summary: The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun, focusing on Zaporizhzhia but with pressure across the front. It's too early to draw conclusions. Expectations and objectives are unclear, and Russian defenses shouldn't be underestimated. Ukrainian units are facing challenges due to mobilization and lack of air support. Breaching operations are difficult, and attrition is expected. The battles will likely last for weeks and months. Western support and donations are crucial for Ukraine's success. The situation is uncertain, and patience is needed to see the outcome. This will be a long and challenging summer for Ukraine.

No. It's wrong geolocation. It's meant Blahodatne on V.Novosilka salient. If it liberation was officially claimed today, that indeed it was liberated at least 2 days ago. Work of 68th jager brigade 

 

When looking at confirmed losses Russia keeps losing units in its rear like artillery, and Ukraine has lost almost none (none in the south). The losses are numerically larger on the Russian side still. Even the Ukrainian "bad" days are roughly similar losses on both sides. I would say these are positive early indicators for Ukraine. I would have expected Ukraine to have significantly higher losses at the start of these offensive operations than the Russians. 

I myself find this one the best:
The War in Ukraine : Scribble Maps

 
just click here to see the fortifications: 

Or they are using every drone they have and in a day or two they'll have nothing. We just don't know.
Plus, maybe they've had that kind of footage all along, but now that it's Western kit, it's worth them posting it.
 
Also, remember that all this is Russian footage and everything they post will have at least some element of trying to convince everyone that the offensive is failing.

but still I am worried 

My summary of some more interesting points of the episode:
We are now beyond shaping operations or probes. This is the main operation, but the main effort is still unknown.  We are seeing multiple brigade lever operations in the south Operations are likely to develop over weeks or even months  We are seeing some of the main new formations being committed Directions other than the south are likely just being conducted by local formations and so are unlikely to amount to much in the big picture. The "land bridge" connecting Crimea to Russia is not as important as often talked about.  Especially in terms of military operations. Most forces resupplied directly from Russia or Crimea. There is not a lot of traffic across this "land bridge".  We must remember there was 2014-2017 when Russia had Ukraine and didn't have the Bridge yet. Long-range fires (storm shadow) It remains to be seen what is the actual impact of this capability.  With some time we are going to be getting an answer on how much giving the ATACMS would have had or not had effect. The problem is not comparable to just giving Ukraine a "longer stick" as often stated. Russia has done a lot more than just move its stockpiles and CC out of the GMLRS range. Russia is hardening potential targets and decentralization its systems. Already clear we are not seeing the "HIMARS effect" from last year. Meaning huge stockpile explosions. The effect of longer-range fires is likely going to be lots of downstream effects. Like Russia being unable to mass fires like it has before. GLSDB ammo combined with Ukraine reaching Crimea will be interesting Mike is more optimistic than before for Ukrainian success  Russia again has a chronic manpower problem The only fix, mobilization seems to be politically off the table.  Russia suffered big losses in the winter Ukraine has waited for more equipment, training, and weather and rushed things too soon. Ukraine has gotten new capabilities as well

I myself find this one the best:
The War in Ukraine : Scribble Maps

 
just click here to see the fortifications: 

I don't think people are shocked of the losses, but the way those losses happened. 
The biggest unknowns where how these yet to meet forces would perform. Yearly indicators now point to somewhat competent Russians and struggling Ukrainians.

Exactly. Losses are expected. 
These sort of losses should never happen

but still I am worried 

Well you basically have to deny it father back. So SHORAD - maybe people should have been screaming for that instead of freakin Leopards - or you can strike the tac aviation support systems in depth.  Or you live with it and send in enough mass to get past it - of course this hits the ISR and PGM dilemma.  

Seems the equipment was lost to Russian territory (at least for the duration of the photo op). 
To me, this makes it less likely any neighboring breaches were successful and the equipment would have been left under Ukrainian control to recover later on.

Except the part where in the video I cannot see arty or ATGMs.  Those look like mine strikes to me. The threat was there but it is still looks a little light on covering fires.
Breaching is a one way trip under fire.  The new ISR dynamic makes it worse not better as your opponent can spot and react faster.  So sending a lone breacher out there and then waiting for the bridge head force you are giving more time to react.  If you are spotted under PGMs etc before hand you are dead anyway.  In fact if your opponent has that level of ISR you either need to change that or breach somewhere else.  In your scenario the breached dies and then the Bradley’s sit around waiting for another breacher system and there are damn few of these to begin with.
This highlights the requirement to shape the battle space and erode an opponent a lot before attempting breaching operations - not lone breaching suicide missions.  From the video I cannot tell if the UA did that and they just ran into mines and kept pushing because they knew the defender would figure it out eventually? Or if they did not effectively shape the space then they were pretty much screwed at the start line.
I am thinking mine strikes because those vehicles are still intact (except one) and not all burning. 

ISW

Well you get what you paid for.  I have been a military engineer for 34 years and was an armoured engineer troops commander a long time ago who ran these sorts of drills.  Based on the video snippet I saw it looks a lot like a mech clearance drill that went bad.
I do not see any significant artillery strikes near enough to those vehicles to be a factor but ATGMs could definitely be a factor (although none look like they were hit).
I mean if there is video of the Bradley’s free wheeling, which is a very bad idea, that is what a mine roller is for.

The losses are concerning, but a lot of this Ukraine counter-attack force is green and they are still learning, mistakes are going to be made. I would only start to really get concerned if this trend continues.. but I have faith that they are smart enough to make the adjustments required in order to succeed.
This is a very small part of the entire force in action and is in a very concentrated area... I would suggest standing by and letting things play out; I suspect a lot of good news is going to come our way very soon.

Yes, I agree, I am shocked also that this column got caught so flat-footed.  I was not aiming comments at folks on this forum, who all know this can happen.  It is disturbing, but it's (so far) just one data point, one column.  Hopefully it's an anomaly.

ISW

Uncharacteristically, Wolski is quite calm and cheering people up:
And a final thought, lest I be misunderstood because of throwing paralyzed UA equipment every now and then: For now, in the audiovisual material from the RUS propaganda, we have confirmed the loss of Ukrainian forces of the following size: - tank companies - 2x IFV companies - MRAP company In total, a battalion (31-44 machines) of "techniques" .
It may be underestimated by 1/3, but we have no evidence to prove it. And here's something that may come as a surprise to the readers - it does not mean that Ukraine's Armed Forces suffered large losses. On the contrary. Of the identified 6 battalions in combat and 5 companies, circa 14% of the "technique" was lost after two days, confirmed by audiovisual material. In the scale of the identified 5 brigades that deployed the above-mentioned forces, it is only 5% of the technology. In difficult terrain, in minefields under fire from artillery and ATGM groups and attack helicopters. These are noticeable losses, but they do not bleed the units, and they do not even lead to a decrease in offensive capabilities.
This level of losses is OK - as scary as it sounds. These brigades suffered symptomatic losses after only three months of training: 33BZ, 37BZmot, 47BZ, etc. These are not the most valuable AUs. The elite ones are waiting "for something" in other regions. As I wrote: it is just beginning and what you can see is not the main attack, it has not even reached the main line of defense of RUS and ... it is not said that this is/will be the main direction of the attack. This will become clear. Sharing request.
Not sure if he is right thoough, losing so much priceless top armour in break does not speak highly of tactical skils.
Also Russians seem to gain morale, Leos/Bradleys were highly mythologized. At least those not on frontlines share photos and inhale them like crazy.