Probus

Sorry, but I think this is pertinent to the discussion...

you could try that. Also start it in admin mode. Maybe your computer is loosing connectivity to the internet?

Welcome back friend! I’m glad you made it through. Merry Christmas (whether you’re celebrating on December 25 (Roman Sect) or December 27 (Eastern Sect as I understand it), all are Christians. 
You are a valued and trusted leader in this Forum, and we value you greatly!

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 
In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.
Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 
Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.
At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 
Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

had Christmas dinner with neighbors.  Their 2 year old was busy reading
 

Very nice gesture of solidarity towards the brave soldiers... also to civilian very affected by the misery of war.
Merry Christmas to them too!
JM

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas to you all and especially those Ukrainian troops in those cold trenches and foxholes.
Merry Christmas!

Young people get to eat a whole hamster for Christmas these days?
In my childhood we would dream of such luxury. We had to make do with a potato.
At Christmas we might dress up the potato with moss and pretend it was a real hamster.
Dad would make squeaky noises as mom carved the potato and we'd all laugh.

Snake Island tour

Ukraine is in a fight for its survival.  If some western leaders are offended by the urgency in UKR requests, F THEM.  
I had a dream last night where russians invaded and took half of my town.  I was a civilian stuck behind RU lines but knew I was on borrowed time and had to get to friendly lines.  I figured there was one sector I might be able to sneak through but knew if spotted I'd be shot on sight.  It was flippin' terrifying.  And Zeleban et al are living it for real. 

Ths fighting over think tanks stuff isn't really helping... (says the guy who took far too long to shut up about Cixin v Iain M.  Banks). 
But still,  it's like arguing about particularly ugly dogs...
Republican Think Tanks etc:

VS Democrat:

https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript
Pulling quotes from it, y'all will be happy to hear Commander in Chief Zeluzhny strongly supports your view, the objective is killing Russians.
 
A General shot himself, how Soviet of him.
He believes Russia is set for the long haul, including new offensives.
Interesting, just plain states Ukraine is prepping for a new offensive and is thereby holding stuff in reserve instead of feeding it for the current frontline. Nvm, preparing for new Russian offensives, building a reserve to counter it when it comes.
Whatever, it's paywalled so you get the whole interview bar a bit.
https://www.economist.com/syrsky-interview
I'll pull the quotes as well below.
Okay, I lied it's the whole interview. Hmm. I've been worried about Russia mobilizing, about the lack of pushback on mobilized being shoved into Ukraine, the idea that Russia is defeated is not coming true and certainly Ukraine's leading commanders aren't operating under that assumption. The west needs to react accordingly or risk Ukraine being pushed back even.

Boom, JDAMs for Ukraine!
Article does not specify how exactly these are to be employed, but hanging them from MiG-29s, perhaps the Slovakian ones that were just retired and are reportedly awaiting the journey to the UA front would make the most sense. I guess either toss bombing from low altitude, or hopefully long range launches with JDAM-ER kits would be the preferable tactic. Looks like fixed RU defense positions will become less useful...  

Thanks to post this. For those, who lasy to open the thread I briefly tell about article
- First batch of Neptune missiles were taken from factory for several days before the war
- First usage of Neptune was not in April when "Moskva" has been sunk, but on 26th of Feb. Three missiles were launched at three large landing ships, which sailed toward Mykolaiv. Russians had intentions to make bridgehead near Mykolaiv or between Mykolaiv and Odesa. Missiles route have to be over Odesa, so for safety reasons their route was put on 120 m altitude instead 4-5 m. Russian detected missiles and probably intercepted all (or they missed). Also allegedly they mistakingly shot down own fighter jet, covering the convoy over the sea and hunting for the missiles too. But for Russians appearance of AS-missiles turned out total surprize, so convoy has broken the mission and returned back. 
- after first launches, battery commander was very dissapointed and ordered to check all missiles, why no one didn't hit a target. Turned out all missiles had defect with the same part, which wouldn't allow to activate warhead. Naval Command claimed this was factory sabotage, but representatives of DB "LUCH" rejected this and soon all parts were repaired
- UKR militaries, who were sources of this article, rejected any NATO assistance in Moskva attack. They tell UKR hasn't any problems with detection of so large target, all problems were only with targeting, because Neptune hadn't in that time own over-the-horizon radar (though missiles can be targeted by coordinates). 
- Bayraktar crews rejected to fly to Moskva, because there were low clouds through which TB2 can't work and to fly lower the clouds would be mean alsmost 100 % loss of valuable equipment.
- The weather helped us. Clouds were so low, that usual radar signal, reflecting from the clouds and water, rerached Moskva in 120 km from the shore and showed the thick mark on display. After seconds of hesitation, commander ordered salvo. The lauch was also from Odesa oblast area. 
- "Moskva" almost didn't activate own AD equipment, because possibly commander was sure in such terrible weather no one jet oe TB2 will not fly to attack them (also here already was posted a document of technical conditions revsion of "Moscva" for January 2022, where many critical radar and AD systems had many malfunctions or were even not in working conditions). 
- The ship could be rescued, but the evening and night storm didn't allow other vessels to approach. When on next morning the sea was already calm, there was too late.
The photo of the same historical launch
   

I would like to clarify the situation at Bakhmut. Let's look at the following map.

Looking at the map, it is evident that the Industrial Zone (which includes the winery and the Ciniat/Sinata Plant) is nothing more than a Forward Defensive Zone. The primary defensive position of the UKR lies to the west, just across the pond in the minor urban neighborhood.
1. What really happened there - RU launched another major attack, and UKR soldiers retreated to their stronghold. This is not the first time this has happened. [Checking records] The RU arrived in Winery on 9 August, and there were fights until the middle of September (17 September), when the Wagnerite detachment was decimated, and survivors fled to Dachas. Obviously, the RU clowns "forgot" about it and are now celebrating the Glorious Victory of conquering the Industrial Zone. Again.
2. Next, RU, being RU, did precisely as prescribed in their textbooks. They understood that attacking the UKR stronghold straight from the Industrial Zone would fail. Furthermore, RU had issues with the woodland to the north. As a result, they shifted the offensive axis to the south to the Private Sector. According to Mashovets, they are also pressing it from the City Dump. RU was looking for a weak place and eventually discovered one. But, as usual, RU Gloriously captured just two village neighborhoods...
3. It is critical to recognize that any village (non-urban) areas are not suitable for holding. This is due to the fact that they do not give adequate protection against RU arty. RU will level them flat if given enough time and ammunition. As a result, AFU does not construct actual and important defenses in village areas. It is only to delay RU and force RU to pay a large Butcher bill. The RU advance in the private sector is unimportant until they reach the Bakhmutka river while surrounding the urban district. Only then will the real battle for Bakhmut begin.
4. The most dangerous threat to Bakhmut is not the RU clown show on the outskirts of town. It is the RU push to the south of Bakhmut.
According to RU claims, they have already crossed the water channel at Kurdymivka and are probing Bila Hora and Dyliivka. This implies they can rest their left flank on the channel while advancing on Ivanivka. It drastically restricts UKR counter-attack choices.

In truth, Wagnerites' zek grinder at Bakhmut might be a distraction to take UKR's attention away from here.
5. It is interesting to know why UKR command is still waiting. There are several possible explanations. One is the bad state of UKR forces at Bakhmut direction. But there is also another explanation. Let's looks again at Mashovets quote about RU arty:
The situation in Bakhmut must be seen in the context of the larger picture. RU is now concentrating munitions here, making any meaningful countermoves here risky. So, the situation in Bakhmut will worsen gradually until something happens somewhere, compelling RU to transfer munitions there.
In some ways, what is going on in Bakhmut is unimportant. What is going to happen somewhere else is.