How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Just now, asurob said:

Amazing work if it's true...thanks for this.

TBH, if you just take a look at the Google Map, the place where they tried to build the bridge is the only one in several kilometers where you could easily drive through the forest and make your way between the old riverbed fragments. There's a high voltage line crossing the forest there, so access by vehicle is provided along it's length. What is baffling to me is that Russians actually attempted the crossing in such an obvious spot.

[SeinfeldRules]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Video of M777 in action:

 

Still see a lack of the digital fire control systems found on the typical M777A2. Interesting but not a surprise that we wouldn’t risk that tech falling into Russian hands. Removes some of the benefits of the system, and puts it on parr with the other systems they have - but does allows us to provide them our conventional ammo. They also seem to be using the older propellants, probably out of our European war stock. 

32 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Can't vouch for authenticity, but fascinating if true.

What an amazing insight into this particular combat operation. Nothing said strikes me as out of the realm of possibility so I completely believe it.

[Vergeltungswaffe]

5 hours ago, Kinophile said:

...But in the future, any competent military will have local Anti Drone units covering the crossing, and up/down the river at least 4km.

I have my doubts that very many nations will be able to deploy, maintain, and competently use Anti Drone forces any time soon. (The Russians certainly don't seem to be able to use technology they've had for years very well at the moment, lol).

Hard to find and destroy every tiny flying plastic device and it just takes one to expose that river crossing.

The game will eventually shift in favor of the AD weapons, but then something else will change the balance.

[FancyCat]

Nvm, he deleted it.

Edited May 12, 2022 by FancyCat

[Machor]

8 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

I gotta say, fully autonomous machines designed to kill people scares the crap outta me. It just seems like such an obviously bad idea.

 

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Minefields with wings/legs/guns...what could possibly go wrong?

They are already here:

"A Military Drone With A Mind Of Its Own Was Used In Combat, U.N. Says"

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-suggests-libya-saw-the-first-battlefield-killing-by-an-autonomous-d

"COLUMN-New era of robot war may be underway unnoticed: Peter Apps"

https://www.reuters.com/article/apps-drones-idUSL5N2NS2E8

In this video from the manufacturer, you can see the drone's AI pick out a dummy technical as its target, and then home in on it:

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

A little known fact is that Poland produces 122m DPICM rounds, both rocket and tube type. Apart from their own stock, Ukrainians probably got at least some with Polish 2S1 and BM-21 deliveries.

Edit: Would it be possible that holes in pontoons were caused by falling cargo rounds bodies? I'm happy to be corrected on this, but I think DPICM would be too small to rip what seems to me more than 1x1m holes in the steel sheet, and any actual artillery round would just rip those to shreds while exploding (unless those were just duds?).

Actually scratch that, I see possible craters now in the zoomed out shot:

So maybe was just good ol HE?  That is the weirdest crossing site, the bridge was diagonal?  That does weird thing to the exits and stresses the bridge too.

Edited May 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Actually scratch that I see possible craters now in the zoomed out shot:

So maybe was just good ol HE?  That is the weirdest crossing site, the bridge was diagonal?  That does weird thing to the exits and stresses the bridge too.

I am betting it started out a lot straighter, and the free end got carried down stream when the artillery blew it loose. Or maybe they couldn't lay it straight in the current in the first place.

[JonS]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is the weirdest crossing site, the bridge was diagonal? 

Wouldn't the current do that once the site is abandoned the the sections become untethered?

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am betting it started out a lot straighter, and the free end got carried down stream when the artillery blew it loose. Or maybe they couldn't lay it straight in the current in the first place.

No from the entry and exit tracks they laid it diagonal, which means they likely did not have a fast boat to push into place to anchor it.  That means that the either did not know what they were doing or their boats got dead, or stuck in traffic.  

You can get away with this in a pinch but it is sloppy.  Exit bank will get some really weird ruts over time, so when it rain you have problems.  And you risk warping the connectors on the sections, which means the pontoons are locked and you cannot pick that back up...which apparently was not a problem because the UA blew it up anyway - Bright Side!

Edited May 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Machor said:

 

They are already here:

"A Military Drone With A Mind Of Its Own Was Used In Combat, U.N. Says"

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/1002196245/a-u-n-report-suggests-libya-saw-the-first-battlefield-killing-by-an-autonomous-d

"COLUMN-New era of robot war may be underway unnoticed: Peter Apps"

https://www.reuters.com/article/apps-drones-idUSL5N2NS2E8

In this video from the manufacturer, you can see the drone's AI pick out a dummy technical as its target, and then home in on it:

 

Can’t jam what is not linked…not surprised in the least.  We will definitely be facing something like these next go around.  

[Machor]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Most of UKR rivers on their way don't have convenient approaches/exits to/from the water as minimum from one side. The banks either covered with dense bushes and trees, or enough steep, or have muddy shores, which in "rasputitsa" time turn itself into the trap, or the bottom of rivers are unpassable for tanks (slime, drowned tree trunks, stones).

 

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You can clearly see in the big Soviet/Russian exercises that they carefully choose well prepared crossing points.  That is not what happens in real life!

Two other problems commonly mentioned are maintenance and currents.  A poorly maintained vehicle is likely to sink and even a successfully floating one has limited abilities to fight currents.  The wider the river, the stronger the current, the less likely the vehicle will hit the exit point on the other side.  And as you say, it's not like a random spot is likely to work.

I have always viewed the swimming aspect to be more strategic in nature than tactical.

There was a Canadian documentary series where the presenters visited WW2 battlefields where Canadians had fought, and did something 'extreme' in each episode in addition to the history lesson; for Germany 1945, they crossed the Rhine on a restored DUKW. They learned from the operator of the DUKW that the river was entered and exited only at prepared points, and once in the river, the operator had to navigate it with precision like a highway, knowing the currents and parts to avoid. It was nothing like 'off-roading'.

[Ultradave]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is the weirdest crossing site, the bridge was diagonal?  That does weird thing to the exits and stresses the bridge too.

Looking at the picture it almost looks like these bridges were a second attempt, that was also then destroyed? There are lots of wrecks on BOTH sides of the river and lots of track/wheel marks on both sides, but not too many on the left side of the "new" bridge, and then there is the wrecked bridges that may just be bending in the current. I'm wondering if there is an earlier bombed out bridge downstream.  Total speculation, but those wrecks on the "right" bank and leading back in a straight line makes it look like there might have been another bridge.

Dave

[chrisl]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No from the entry and exit tracks they laid it diagonal, which means they likely did not have a fast boat to push into place to anchor it.  That means that the either did not know what they were doing or their boats got dead, or stuck in traffic.  

You can get away with this in a pinch but it is sloppy.  Exit bank will get some really weird ruts over time, so when it rain you have problems.  And you risk warping the connectors on the sections, which means the pontoons are locked and you cannot pick that back up...which apparently was not a problem because the UA blew it up anyway - Bright Side!

It looks from the choice of spot  like they intended to make it straight and then couldn't, either because the boats were dead or because they came under fire before securing it (which is consistent with the twitter story) and just tried rushing vehicles across before they managed to secure the far side.   And after not too long it didn't really matter.  Except that by not securing it the vehicles that made it across had no retreat path, either.

edit: and now I realize that the righthand ramp has tire tracks on it, as if they were rushing vehicles across it, while the lefthand one doesn't.  Maybe they did a rush job with the first one on  the right to get guys across to help with and protect the far side while they set the second one.

And on the right bank there are a ton of tracks going into the water downstream of the righthand boat ramp - did they cross all the floaty vehicles there while they were setting the bridge??

Edited May 11, 2022 by chrisl

[chuckdyke]

5 hours ago, Cederic said:

The future is swarms: overwhelm defences through sheer numbers.

The aircraft carrier superseded the battleship.  Dive-bombers and torpedo bombers are like drones except they have crew. The battle in the pacific are unthinkable without the aircraft carrier, never mind half of the Japanese army was in China. The tank was inspired by the navy only during WW2 they got rid of the multi turret designs. I can see drones being launched from tanks and SP Guns. Or the Russian Katyushas launching them, I bet their designs bureaus are on overtime. Conclude this war asap time is not on the side of the Ukraine. 

[The_Capt]

Just now, Ultradave said:

Looking at the picture it almost looks like these bridges were a second attempt, that was also then destroyed? There are lots of wrecks on BOTH sides of the river and lots of track/wheel marks on both sides, but not too many on the left side of the "new" bridge, and then there is the wrecked bridges that may just be bending in the current. I'm wondering if there is an earlier bombed out bridge downstream.  Total speculation, but those wrecks on the "right" bank and leading back in a straight line makes it look like there might have been another bridge.

Dave

Maybe, or it might have been where the F ech bounced.  They would have been under power so could have made a straight crossing.  Of course you are supposed to do a bounce crossing in combat formation not in column, which is what it looks like they did.  Or there was another bridge, which, if it got hit, trying a second crossing on an already sighted position is just insane.

Normally one needs to make 2 crossing sights to secure one, per Combat Team.  They should be spaced out of arty footprint of each other so 500m+.  Looks like they tried for two pontoon bridges which is not a good idea, for obvious reasons we see here.  Sure you can get more vehicles across but if you get spotted (which you can count on in this environment), you lose two bridges.

Of course none of this makes a lot of sense to be honest.

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No from the entry and exit tracks they laid it diagonal, which means they likely did not have a fast boat to push into place to anchor it.  That means that the either did not know what they were doing or their boats got dead, or stuck in traffic.  

You can get away with this in a pinch but it is sloppy.  Exit bank will get some really weird ruts over time, so when it rain you have problems.  And you risk warping the connectors on the sections, which means the pontoons are locked and you cannot pick that back up...which apparently was not a problem because the UA blew it up anyway - Bright Side!

Couldn't you pull it straight with half inch wire rope, and truck-bed's worth of rigging equipment? I mean that is not exactly the Mississippi they are trying to cross there. If you were moderately creative with the rigging you could even have the pulling vehicle on the starting side. It looks like their are plenty of trees to anchor off of.

[Ultradave]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe, or it might have been where the F ech bounced.  They would have been under power so could have made a straight crossing.  Of course you are supposed to do a bounce crossing in combat formation not in column, which is what it looks like they did.  Or there was another bridge, which, if it got hit, trying a second crossing on an already sighted position is just insane.

Normally one needs to make 2 crossing sights to secure one, per Combat Team.  They should be spaced out of arty footprint of each other so 500m+.  Looks like they tried for two pontoon bridges which is not a good idea, for obvious reasons we see here.  Sure you can get more vehicles across but if you get spotted (which you can count on in this environment), you lose two bridges.

Of course none of this makes a lot of sense to be honest.

I didn't read your previous post before making mine (doh!). Your diagonal explanation also makes sense, as does the swim across one spot (which got waxed) and bridge across next to it. But as you say, you wouldn't want your 2 crossing points to be right on top of each other. That's just ASKING for pictures like this to be made.

Dave

[Ultradave]

Chalk it up another example of "how not to do things, eh?"

Dave

[akd]

BBC report from the front N of Kharkiv:

Not sure what the massive anti-material rifle is.  Maybe this:

https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2020/06/17/ukrainian-snipex-alligator-14-5x114mm-anti-materiel-rifle/

EDIT: or more likely this:

https://audm.org.ua/en/news/nova-14-5-mm-dalekobijna-gvintivka-t-rex-vid-hado/

Edited May 12, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Couldn't you pull it straight with half inch wire rope, and truck-bed's worth of rigging equipment? I mean that is not exactly the Mississippi they are trying to cross there. If you were moderately creative with the rigging you could even have the pulling vehicle on the starting side. It looks like their are plenty of trees to anchor off 

You could try to winch the home-bank side but the bridge will likely dig into the bank.  Either way, this crossing site went very bad.  And they were still trying to cross F ech which got, got. 

[JonS]

Well, one less BTG to track

[chrisl]

5 minutes ago, JonS said:

Well, one less BTG to track

Unless you're Oryx and have to try to ID them all.

[The_Capt]

Oh and no bank prep is another bad sign.  They should have laid down either planking or aluminum trackway.  They need to do this before you put in the bridge and I see none.  This is bad, as the entry and exit turn into soup on that ground after 50 vehicles or so.  Then you get bogging and traffic jams, that are ripe for artillery or UAV strike.

Edited May 12, 2022 by The_Capt

[akd]

Oh, look who did the war crimes in front of a camera then hung around to drink vodka and show their faces:

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by akd

[chrisl]

And just noticed that the overhead pic in the Twitter thread from Maxim only shows the bridge that has the mud tracks on it, and maybe fewer burned vehicles on the far side.  The "clean" second boat ramp was a later attempt.