How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, acrashb said:

I thought so at first.  But if you look at the orange-painted tow ring, it's attached to the hitch on the truck and nothing else is. 

Okay, you got me there (mental note, zoom in on any photograph before commenting ). 

So @TheVulture probably has the answer as he described above.

[Battlefront.com]

I'm still waiting for today's ISW update to confirm a few details, but I think I'm ready to conclude that the Russian offensive hit its high water mark yesterday or perhaps today.  Due to the desperation on the Russian side I don't see all offensive activity north of Slovyansk ceasing for a few more days, even though I don't think they will make significant gains.  And even then, it's like Kyiv all over again... getting to the edge of an objective you don't have the strength to take is pointless.

 

Let's do a quick recap of back-of-envelope calculations that we did last week:

 

Russia was estimated to have had 20 BTG equivalents in Izyum plus another 4 that were scraped together from the Far East.  For the first few days of the offensive we estimated Russia was losing about 1/2 a BTG every day.  Using 20% as the combat ineffective threshold, that meant only 9 days before running out of steam. Excluding Day 1 of the offensive (mostly artillery activity), they made it to about 10 days. They're not done yet, but pretty clearly yesterday and today show that the offensive is largely spent.  And all that was done with OSINT and putting some heads together.  Fascinating.

 

Steve

[c3k]

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

Well, certainly not an expert, but I would guess inertial guidance instead of simple dead reckoning?

Older inertial guidance was subject to a lot of drift. On the order of 4 Nautical Miles per Hour was considered quite good.

Update systems were required for many of them. Celestial, navaid, radar, etc., to return the drift to a known position.

For a Soviet-era SRBM of the 60's/70's, meant to be equipped with a nuclear warhead, the drift would certainly be acceptable without the added expense of update systems or high-accuracy inertial nav systems.

The old "horse shoes and hand grenades" statement...

Modern ring-laser gyros, coupled with modern solid-state accelerometers produce accuracy several (3, 4, or 5) orders of magnitude better than the old "spinning mass" systems.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

Not quite but certainly in the ballpark. I just think that if they get sent a whole bunch, they can be useful, as long as they are careful what they do with them.

Dave

This is not an AFV, it is a better tractor, they get tractors....

[Ultradave]

32 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Cool, learned something new.

I'm amazed, as the barrel is the part that needs to, at least, remain straight.  

Thanks!

It's not the only one towed that way either, like the D-30 which has a very similar towing attachment. Also keeps that long barrel from waving in the breeze. Not literally of course. They are quite stiff. However, they are also heavy, with a large moment arm, and hitting potholes and craters can make them potentially deform, or start forming stress cracks, both of which are classified as "extremely bad". 

Dave

[Ultradave]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is not an AFV, it is a better tractor, they get tractors....

Then the actual tractors can go back to their normal jobs

Dave

[sburke]

Putin seems to be not doing so well playing chicken.  Folded on paying debt in roubles but that only gets him another 4 weeks and costs reserves which Russia badly needs.

Russia looks to swerve default with last-minute dollar bond payment (msn.com)

Andy Sparks, managing director at index provider MSCI, said the prospect of a default still loomed large if the U.S. Treasury allows the Russian debt payment license to expire on May 25.  Russia has another bond payment just two days after that which means that, if the U.S. waiver is not extended, it will be almost impossible for Moscow to avoid a default.  "The real question is whether this is just delaying the inevitable," Sparks said.  "Most investors will take that date of May 25 very seriously and many will not expect that exception to be extended."

[Vacillator]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

that only gets him another 4 weeks

This is a world I've not really visited.  So I'm not up to speed and would welcome enlightenment on:

'a U.S. license allowing Moscow to make payments is due to expire'

[IMHO]

8 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

This is a world I've not really visited.  So I'm not up to speed and would welcome enlightenment on:

'a U.S. license allowing Moscow to make payments is due to expire'

Under the sanctions regime banks cannot process the payments. So the debtor may want to pay the interest yet the banks won't process the payment and the debtor will end up in default anyway. The license allows the banks to process the payments whatever they are. Normally the license exclusion allows some specific type of payments from / to specific parties.

Edited April 29, 2022 by IMHO

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

Putin seems to be not doing so well playing chicken.  Folded on paying debt in roubles but that only gets him another 4 weeks and costs reserves which Russia badly needs.

Russia looks to swerve default with last-minute dollar bond payment (msn.com)

Andy Sparks, managing director at index provider MSCI, said the prospect of a default still loomed large if the U.S. Treasury allows the Russian debt payment license to expire on May 25.  Russia has another bond payment just two days after that which means that, if the U.S. waiver is not extended, it will be almost impossible for Moscow to avoid a default.  "The real question is whether this is just delaying the inevitable," Sparks said.  "Most investors will take that date of May 25 very seriously and many will not expect that exception to be extended."

And what does this actually mean to Russia if they default?  Sky falls?  What exactly happens??

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, IMHO said:

Under the sanctions regime banks cannot process the payments. So that the debtor may want to pay the interest yet the banks won't process the payment and the debtor will end up in default anyway.

Thanks, immediate question answered.  I have more but I'll do that elsewhere .

[Battlefront.com]

Recap of the Easter Offensive from the perspective of this thread:

The offensive started on April 17th.

On April 18th I wrote:

Quote

It is pretty easy for Russia to bottle up the forces east of Izyum.  I think we should assume that will happen.  But everything else is far less certain.

Taking Slovyansk quickly is incredibly important.  It is the equivalent of Bastogne for the Germans in the Battle of The Bulge.  Or perhaps like Sumy was in the earlier part of the war.  Whatever the analogy, it will be difficult for it to sustain operations southward towards Donetsk without taking over Slovyansk's road nexus.  In theory pressure from the south could make up for any delays at taking it, but so far there's been little indication that the Russian and proxy forces there are capable of breaking through, not to mention driving ~40km north.

There is, I think, a real chance that what I've called Phase 2 will be stalled out.  

On April 21st I said this:

Quote

I think today I have the answer... there won't be an attempt at a big offensive.

To which The_Capt replied:

Quote

Whoa...we call the ball correctly on this, we should start thinking about moving to another business.

For those of who might be concerned, be reassured Combat Mission is still my day job and I am not planning a career change.

 

As I said a bunch of pages ago, I am SO VERY CURIOUS to know if the Russians started with a scaled down "small offensive" or if they were initially shooting for the "big offensive" and found it unworkable.  I have no idea which is the case, I only know they didn't succeed even with the "small offensive".

Russia started this pointless offensive with the idea that it could gain the rest of Luhansk and Donetsk.  Even though the offensive is still puttering along, they clearly aren't going to achieve their goal.

Which means Putin is going to have to further revise his "victory" speech.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

And what does this actually mean to Russia if they default?  Sky falls?  What exactly happens??

Not too much short term.  It's a long term problem where future investors are going to remember that Russia wasn't able to cover its debts.  Doesn't matter why, just matters that they weren't able to.  This will most likely make the cost of borrowing significantly higher than for other nations.  It will more likely tend towards more "money up front" deals.  Well, once Russia is off the naughty list that is.  Until then, doesn't matter much.

Steve

[IMHO]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This will most likely make the cost of borrowing significantly higher than for other nations

Russia cannot borrow at whatever interest it may want to offer. It's prohibited under sanctions regime. Only one-on-one G2G exclusive payment deal say with China. And China will make sure Russia pays "exclusive" price for an exclusive deal. And this will not change within years if not decades to come. Yet not that Russian budget needs borrowing. It's is the least of the long term veritable disasters that will befall the country.

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by IMHO

[BeondTheGrave]

As I recall a declaration of war is required to activate conscript units and compel them into the battlefield, plus It would surely allow Putin to call up additional reserves and mobilize even more Russian men. Basically were looking at a level of mobilization not scene in Russia since the Soviet period, not seen in the US since Vietnam, and not seen in Europe since, what, 1945? One wonders what this also says about the levels of domestic resistance Putin is now facing at home. If he thinks he can get away with this, it surely means hes assuming that the military and oligarchs and other power brokers are more or less on board with him. A big change since February when we were seeing those big protests and demonstrations, plus the more artistic protests at symbolic sites. But with that recent string of....... accidents..... and suicides..... that the oligarchs have been experiencing, it perhaps suggests that Putin has pruned sources of resistance and feels free to move forward. Interesting implications if true.

Assuming that the Brits are accurate of course. No reason to suspect their not, but at the same time these "X will happen on Y date" type predictions are prone to becoming huge nothingburgers. I guess watch that space, were only ten days away!

Edited April 29, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, IMHO said:

Russia cannot borrow at whatever interest it may want to offer. It's prohibited under sanctions regime. Only one-on-one G2G exclusive payment deal say with China. And Chine will make sure Russia pays "exclusive" price for an exclusive deal. And not this it will change within years if not decades to come. Yet not that Russian budget needs borrowing. It's is the least of the long term veritable disaster that will befall the country.

 

it also comes down to capital investment.  Russia needs a lot of it going forward for its oil industry and if it wants to build it's own electronics manufacturing to make up for western sanctions.  If it defaults, forget that for decades.  This is a looming headache for Russia that will far outlast Putin.  Consider this sort of like being kneecapped.  You won't be dead, but you'll be hobbling around for a very very long time.

[sross112]

Today's ISW report is up.

Not much ground taken in the Izyum salient and reports of several attacks repulsed by the UA. General staff said using more mobile defense in lieu of positional defense to counter RA attacks.

Down south:

Russian forces continued to redeploy from Mariupol on April 29 to participate in offensive operations northward to support Russia’s main effort to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.[1]  The Ukrainian General Staff stated on April 29 that certain units from Mariupol are deploying to participate in offensive operations toward Kurakhiv (western Donetsk Oblast, about 50 km west of Donetsk City), and an anonymous senior Pentagon official reported that a “significant” number of Russian units have redeployed toward Zaporizhia Oblast since April 20

I'm not sure how much actual combat power they can pull out of Mariupol. I'd think the units in there would be pretty chewed up like the ones from around Kyiv or worse. Throwing them right back into an offensive to the north probably won't end well. On the other hand the line north of Mariupol has been considered a weak spot for awhile now and believed to be mostly manned by TD so maybe they have a chance of pushing.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

As I recall a declaration of war is required to activate conscript units and compel them into the battlefield, plus It would surely allow Putin to call up additional reserves and mobilize even more Russian men. Basically were looking at a level of mobilization not scene in Russia since the Soviet period, not seen in the US since Vietnam, and not seen in Europe since, what, 1945? One wonders what this also says about the levels of domestic resistance Putin is now facing at home. If he thinks he can get away with this, it surely means hes assuming that the military and oligarchs and other power brokers are more or less on board with him. A big change since February when we were seeing those big protests and demonstrations, plus the more artistic protests at symbolic sites. But with that recent string of....... accidents..... and suicides..... that the oligarchs have been experiencing, it perhaps suggests that Putin has pruned sources of resistance and feels free to move forward. Interesting implications if true.

Assuming that the Brits are accurate of course. No reason to suspect their not, but at the same time these "X will happen on Y date" type predictions are prone to becoming huge nothingburgers. I guess watch that space, were only ten days away!

The only problem I have with that strategy is so what?  Putin declares war and now he can conscript massively.  Now you have a whole lot of untrained folks many of whom really don't want to be in this meat grinder and you have to train them.  Handing them a weapon and sending them off to the front will just end up with a lot more cargo 200.  For them to make an effective impact on the battlefield they need to be trained.  Time is not on Putin's side and this doesn't help solve the time problem.

[IMHO]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

forget that for decades.  This is a looming headache for Russia that will far outlast Putin.

You can forget about the whole of Russia for decades to come. Not only the oil industry. Personally I think 25-50 years - one-two whole generations. What is being done - it's not easily forgettable

[sross112]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

The only problem I have with that strategy is so what?  Putin declares war and now he can conscript massively.  Now you have a whole lot of untrained folks many of whom really don't want to be in this meat grinder and you have to train them.  Handing them a weapon and sending them off to the front will just end up with a lot more cargo 200.  For them to make an effective impact on the battlefield they need to be trained.  Time is not on Putin's side and this doesn't help solve the time problem.

And also, do they even have the weapons to hand them? Do they have a couple million AK's laying around in warehouses or were all of those sold over the last 30 years? Not to mention any heavier weapons. Plus all other kit. We saw the WW2 stuff being handed out to the separatist forces, was that because they were low priority or was it because that is all they had to give them? Maybe someone has some source knowledge of what they actually have for that sort of equipment and how many troops they could actually fully equip?

[akd]

Visiting some defensive positions in the east.  First, older positions along the LOC:

New defenses and units digging in around Barvinkove:

 

[IMHO]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

Time is not on Putin's side and this doesn't help solve the time problem.

They don't have a strategy or a least credible forecast whatsoever and that's probably the most frightening thing. What comes tomorrow may be absolutely not what they anticipated and they are absolutely irrational in their reactions.

[BeondTheGrave]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And what does this actually mean to Russia if they default?  Sky falls?  What exactly happens??

If Russia defaults, bad things happen. How bad is hard to say. If they default once, theyll probably take a permanent hit to their credit rating and, even if they regain access to the world financial market, will find they have to pay higher interest on their new debts. More people will think Russian debt is junk or too risky, so fewer will buy, so Russia will have to pay more to sell its bonds, so ultimately Russia will have to issue more debt to raise the same amount of cash. If were talking a few percentage points that sucks, .1% on $1b is 1mil. Doesnt sound like much, but obv it adds up. Assuming Russia doesn't miss too many bond payments AND assuming it can actually pay for the debt at some point, not so bad. More like if you miss a credit card payment than miss default on your mortgage. 

But if Russia starts to miss lots of bond payments, if it spends its warchest on, well, the war and cannot pay back its creditors once it is able, or if once it gets back on the world credit market it decides that the USD is bull**** and it wants to only pay in Rubles, worse things can happen. An interest rate rise of 1% is rough. Of 10% or more is fatal, it would probably ruin the Russian state's finances for a decade or more. If their credit is seen as too dangerous or too risky they may also run into a lack of willing buyers. The people with the kind of capital a state needs to stay afloat are few and far between. If New York looks at a Russian bond issue and says "too risky for my blood" it doesn't matter what the Russian interest rate is. This is the 'sky is falling' outcome. In 1916 Russia was paying a massive interest on its debts, and of course was kept afloat by this huge and convoluted lending scheme in which money traveled from London banks, to the Treasure, to the French Treasury, to Paris banks, to Russian accounts, to the Russian state. And in 1917 this system broke down. Literally overnight the Tsar's bonds went from real things of financial value to very nice collectable art, and the market never recovered. If you held that bond, your value went from thousands or millions to whatever the going rate of TP was. International creditors will panic if they think this is the case, and screw Russia out of the market until some kind of stability is restored. 

In that case Russia has two solutions (one of which they have available now). First is China. Obviously they can borrow massive sums from China, and China would love to lend. But there are risks in borrowing from China. First the Yuan is a **** currency. Its exchange rate is pegged squarely on what China wants it to be, often keeping it artificially low to benefit exporters. To stave off economic disaster China has, in the past, just unilaterally changed the exchange rate. If you hold large quantities of Yuan, say if youre a sovereign country who is selling their bonds on the Chinese market in exchange for Yuan, well a big and sudden swing in the exchange rate could cost you no joke billions. Second, China is an untrustworthy lender. Their debt is far more expensive than Euro-American debt because London and New York just want cash for cash. But Beijing wants more. Maybe theyll give Russia a sweethart interest rate (cool!) but in exchange demand a portion of Gazprom is sold off to Chinese investors, diverting profits from oligarchs to.... well... Chinese oligarchs. You could see how this would be bad for Putin. And of course if you limit yourself to one source, you run the risk of getting trapped. Maybe today China is your friend. And maybe tomorrow a huge ball of oil is found under Vladivostok. Now China isn't so friendly, but you still need them for your bond issues. This is like the Germany Gas situation but 10 times worse. So the other solution? Go nuclear. Print money. Pay everything in useless Rubles. Default. Go through a massive period of deflation (which is the real killer). Try not to get shot in the prosses. You know just Weimar stuff. 

[IMHO]

10 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Maybe someone has some source knowledge of what they actually have for that sort of equipment and how many troops they could actually fully equip?

@sburkewas absolutely right. You may have a howitzer. You may train a loader within a couple of weeks. You need a hell of time to train an arty FO save an FAC.

Edited April 29, 2022 by IMHO

[BeondTheGrave]

12 minutes ago, sburke said:

The only problem I have with that strategy is so what?  Putin declares war and now he can conscript massively.  Now you have a whole lot of untrained folks many of whom really don't want to be in this meat grinder and you have to train them.  Handing them a weapon and sending them off to the front will just end up with a lot more cargo 200.  For them to make an effective impact on the battlefield they need to be trained.  Time is not on Putin's side and this doesn't help solve the time problem.

I agree here, Im not really sure what it would get him except a few more BTGs. It really seems like a 'bottom of the barrel' move. 

But what else can Putin do. To @The_Capt's oft mentioned decision space, it seems like Putin feels like he cannot back down now. Hes invested too much to go to status quo January. But even getting Ukraine to formally recognize the DR/LR and Crimea, sure thats cool but how is that worth what Russia has already spent? They have broken their sword, just to turn around and obtain a de jure recognition of the de facto reality? Doesn't seem worth it. So if we think Putin has to win something, what can he win and how can he do it? With what he has now there is probably no way to win something useful. So either he can admit he sucks eggs or he can double (or is this now tripling?) down and go for at least something to make it look like he won. 

Assuming again this report is accurate, it may not be.