How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

6 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

BBC are reporting Russian state media has said the Moskva has sunk

Russian warship Moskva has sunk - state media https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61114843

MMM

Lets break out the champagne!

[Kinophile]

50 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'd guess that at the level of damage she suffered, it's probably cheaper and faster (and more cost effective!) to just build a new ship. Saving Moskva will be important from the PR perspective only, I don't imagine her making impact in this conflict. At most, they will make some PR posturing due to "saving" her, and then sell the hulk for scrap later. Best case scenario, you guys take her as a trophy when you reconquer Sevastopol

It's moot now (glug glug glug to the bottom of the Black sea bathtub), but even so - where could they build a new one without serious foreign contribution? Maybe they could buy some used Chinese rip-offs of the Arleigh Burkes. Maybe. In a decade.

[kraze]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

He's right more often than not though. I wonder if the expected Great Donbas Offensive could just fizzle before it even starts. There are various reports (not the least about Russian morale) that suggest that. It would be anticlimactic, but much better for the UA side for sure.

What Haiduk said. Also JTO guys are pretty hardcore, no time or mood to make nice promo videos - most of those have been fighting this war for 8 years non-stop. So it's all hush hush also because of that.

In fact we have a joke here that is even more relevant to JTO guys:

TD unit #1 at a road checkpoint is given codewords with "butterfly" for query and "feet" for response. Another TD unit #2 drives by and stops.

TD#1 points at AKs: "so are you gonna shoot some butterflies with those?"

TD#2: "no, we are going to smash them with our feet"

TD#1: "alright, you can pass boys"

Then an army unit drives by and stops.

TD#1: "so are you gonna shoot some butterflies with those?"

Army: "what?"

TD#1: "are you gonna shoot butterflies with those?"

Army: "what?!"

TD#1: "BUTTERFLY!"

Army: "FEET!". Drives.

[Kinophile]

Hah. Good synopsis of the difference in "amateur" v "professional". We have the exact same stuff on set, essentially -  Pros act while Amateurs talk.

No offence to the TDF, of course - Kiev was won with them.

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

[akd]

38 minutes ago, dan/california said:

we know anything else about this? Big deal if true. Mackay's heart is in the right place, but his entusiasm level can be a little high.

Might be based solely on the SF team taking out a bridge / convoy near Borova.  I would not conclude that the front line (in any solid sense) is there based solely on that.

[acrashb]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

evidence that Russians are reissuing bloody body armor

This speaks to your and other's discussion about the Russians treating their soldiers like machinery, replaceable parts (originally in relation to how they reconstitute BTGs).

Imagine what it does to morale to be handed bloody armour from the last guy.  Or to ride in an IFV with one or more guys near you already smeared in blood.

Edited April 14, 2022 by acrashb

[Der Zeitgeist]

OK, one more meme, then I'll shut up. It was a nice looking ship though.

 

[TheVulture]

40 minutes ago, dan/california said:

we know anything else about this? Big deal if true. Mackay's heart is in the right place, but his entusiasm level can be a little high.

Don't know whether that one is true, but it certainly fits in the picture - reports earlier today of two Russian columns being hit by artillery as well as a bridge near Izyum being destroyed with Russia vehicles crossing it, so there's a decent amount of disruption and friction being applied to the supposed Russian build up.

[Kinophile]

Gives you a good sense of the size of the Neptune.

Two of those...ouchy.

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

Sure, unless they just break under a wave of local counterattacks and ****ty morale, with effect being similar as in big offensive, but with less UA casualties. If they follow the example of forces from around Kiyv, that would be great.

Edit: on the other hand, maybe huge, indisputable defeat on the battlefield is what Russia really needs, instead of rotten compromise peace that would only prop the "knife in the back" narrative not unlike in interbellum Germany.

Either way will eventually work for Ukraine because Russia has no means of winning the war.  However, there are ways the war can end sooner and ways it can end later. 

Unlike Russia, Ukraine doesn't have to end this war quickly.  However, the longer the war goes on the more time Russia has to cause damage, murder civilians, and delay Ukraine's huge task of rebuilding.  This gives Ukraine an incentive to end the war as soon as possible.

The best ways to end this quicker than later is to destroy what little remains of Russia's offensive capabilities in one battle.  It is difficult to find new ways to humiliate Russia, but this is one of them.  Completely removing any large scale offensive options for Russia will have SOME major effect on the course of the war:

1. Russia politically accepts the war is lost and "sues for peace" under terms that are favorable to Ukraine
2. Russian forces lose their ability to defend themselves (i.e. they break in some form or another)
3. Russian political and military forces dig in and attempt to achieve a "frozen conflict" to preserve their gains

I think #1 is highly unlikely unless it is coupled with a coup that removes Putin from power.  #2 is a real possibility, but it might take a while for it to happen.  Which leaves #3.

If Russia decides that it is going to be on the strategic defensive for a prolonged period of time, then Ukraine will have the freedom to pick and choose where to mass forces for best effect.  There are plenty of places that they can attack that will cause the defensive efforts to fail.  For example, cutting off Kherson from Crimea, pocketing the Izyum buildup, etc.

That said...

If Russia does call off the foolish attack, then Russia has gone to a slightly modified #3 where it retains some offensive capabilities, but still affords Ukraine the opportunity to pick and choose which portion of Russia's invasion force is going to be eliminated.

Steve

[kraze]

RIA Novosti, referencing their ministry of "defense", reports that Moskva sank.

There you go.

Edited April 14, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, kraze said:

What Haiduk said. Also JTO guys are pretty hardcore, no time or mood to make nice promo videos - most of those have been fighting this war for 8 years non-stop. So it's all hush hush also because of that.

In fact we have a joke here that is even more relevant to JTO guys:

Haha!  Well, that's now in my "Funnies" folder along with all the best memes I've saved.  Thanks!

Steve

[DesertFox]

I love it!

 

 

[FancyCat]

Russians got high off their own supply? 

I would like to ask, whats the possibility Ukraine lets Russia envelop further and then simply keeps draining their flanks? As long as they hold the JFO and its fortified areas, why not let Russia keep advancing narrow road bound pushes? 

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1514665548646391812?s=20&t=Z4KlXL594xoZqwuOVOTMAA

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/trump-putin-and-the-paradox-of-propaganda.html

[Nicdain]

42 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Well its certainly all over twitter right now

 

A great blow for Ukraine! I wouldn't like to be in the shoes of the one who has to tell Putin...

Probably, as was said previously in the forum, a carefully planned attack by the UA, but I am truly amazed that the Russian Navy flagship got caught so sensationally by surprise.

Another sign of the general poor quality of the Russian military apparatus? One would think that in a conventional confrontation with NATO, the Russians would capitulate in a short time ...

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Russians got high off their own supply? 

I would like to ask, whats the possibility Ukraine lets Russia envelop further and then simply keeps draining their flanks? As long as they hold the JFO and its fortified areas, why not let Russia keep advancing narrow road bound pushes? 

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1514665548646391812?s=20&t=Z4KlXL594xoZqwuOVOTMAA

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/04/trump-putin-and-the-paradox-of-propaganda.html

The Russians bailed on taking Kyiv, because it was just too expensive to keep trying, or even hold the ground they HAD taken. There is no reason the Donbas can't go the same way.

Edited April 14, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Kinophile]

In fairness, the Moskva was flagship for to its size, public visibility and weaponry. But in terms of capabilities, the smaller more modern ships are quite dangerous enough. 

Still, buh-bye amphibious ops.

[Battlefront.com]

From a trusted source in Kiev who has been keeping up on the news:

• Sources said 50 sailors were rescued from the Muskova, leaving a potential 500 in the water to drown or going down with the ship.
• the Muskova might have had nukes on board
• a bunch of Marines made it out of Mariupol to the Ukrainian lines near Zaporizhia
• the several villages that were liberated north of Kherson were in the Bashtanka area, which is in the northern extent of Russian advances in that area
• possibly Dniprorudnoe is now back in Ukrainian hands.  This is on the eastern bank of the Dnepr
• more reporting of large scale refusals to fight by Russian units having recently been pulled out of northern Ukraine

Steve

[Kinophile]

Kiev was very different - very bad logistics bottlenecks (the western arm was off railroad) plus the Dniper flooding did a a lot to reduce their elbow room. Heavy woods straddling their tail, etc 

Donbass <-> Dnipro is a very different ball game and pitch.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

In fairness, the Moskva was flagship for to its size, public visibility and weaponry. But in terms of capabilities, the smaller more modern ships are quite dangerous enough. 

Still, buh-bye amphibious ops.

true, but the PR value is off the chart.  No matter how Russia spins this for home consumption - even if they say it was due to issues on the ship itself, it is still a huge blow to any sense of Russia's military superiority. 

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

• the Muskova might have had nukes on board

I was wondering about that when the Air Force had that WC-135 Constant Phoenix nuclear sniffer plane flying around the Med in early February.

[Huba]

Just the name of the sunk ship ist mad re PR value it brings. They should'be renamed it before the war, like Germans did with the Deutschland. It just sound horrible when ship named after your capital sinks.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

Absolutely, @sburke, absolutely.

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is difficult to find new ways to humiliate Russia, but this is one of them.  

Ukraine seems to take that as a challenge.

Whomever is running their naval ops is amazing. The Berdyanka strike, Mosckva sinking...what's next? Sebastopol naval facilities?