How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Yet]

15 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Like having one boxer in the ring, it takes two to tango. 

or like having 2 boxers in the ring both hitting in the same direction -it becomes kinda Thai Chi. It doesnt make any kind of show for public, though it is better for the physical and mental wellbeing of the practitioners. Or (as others call it) booooooring.

[ArmouredTopHat]

10 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

I agree with most of your post, and have asked the same question before, but I wouldn't single out the Russians here. Western tanks are not especially resistant to drones (although crew survivability is much better), have poor anti-personnel ammunition and are too heavy.

Oh without a doubt there are some issues with Western tanks as you say. M1 has been noted for having especially poor defence against FPVs hitting certain spots of its turret, hence the extra protection and cages. The tank was just not simply designed with such a threat profile in mind and it shows. 

Strv 122 on the other hand, has been spoken of very highly due to its extra top attack protection that has served as an unintentionally very useful defence against FPV drones and lancet munitions. At the very least Western designs in theory should be quite adjustable to this new environment. Something with a carousal loader in the centre of the fighting compartment not so much. 

Edited Monday at 05:38 PM by ArmouredTopHat

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

hmm, I do not recall posting propaganda cannot be effective, my only comment was that before deciding the film "Russians at War" is or is not propaganda, someone would have to see it. As far as I know, no one here has seen it, even though everyone has already made up their minds about it.

I think a movie by a Russian journalist, embedded with Russian forces that leaves unresolved gems like this... 

“Do you believe the Russian army commits war crimes?” Anastasia Trofimova asks one of her protagonists. He confidently responds, "No."

...can safely be dismissed as propaganda. 

Here's a round up of folks who actually watched it...which took me about 10 seconds to find. Ymmv. 

https://kyivindependent.com/is-russians-at-war-propaganda-we-asked-7-people-in-film-who-saw-it/

 

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Russian journalist

Not the kind sitting in russian jail or lying in a grave, but the kind working her whole life for Russia Today. 

Also, the people involved are on twitter - stating such things as filming in Ukraine not possible as ethnic russians will be killed there, so the only Ukrainians they could ask for comment were in occupied territory ... And of course these were all "russians at heart", hoping to rejoin the motherland and wishing for an end to this horrible war.

Edited Monday at 05:47 PM by Kraft

[poesel]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You made assumptions about the required specifications and then an assessment. This what I take issue with. This vehicle is not only pushing dirt that may contain mines. Or lobbing explosive hoses. It is part of a breaching system and contributes to delivery of effects.

I made an assessment about its size because someone said it is too big. Nothing more, nothing less. Anything else is your interpretation of my writing or my intentions.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

I made an assessment about its size because someone said it is too big. Nothing more, nothing less. Anything else is your interpretation of my writing or my intentions.

Well it is too big, another problem. Too easy to spot with ISR. Probably too hot too because of the engineer required to move it. Going to guzzle gas like a monster, increased logistics load. Wear and tear on the front end will be a maintenance issue.

So, again, yes it is the right size to push dirt and mines. But wrong size for other requirements.

[poesel]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Well it is too big, another problem. Too easy to spot with ISR. Probably too hot too because of the engineer required to move it. Going to guzzle gas like a monster, increased logistics load. Wear and tear on the front end will be a maintenance issue.

So, again, yes it is the right size to push dirt and mines. But wrong size for other requirements.

Now we agree

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think a movie by a Russian journalist, embedded with Russian forces that leaves unresolved gems like this... 

“Do you believe the Russian army commits war crimes?” Anastasia Trofimova asks one of her protagonists. He confidently responds, "No."

...can safely be dismissed as propaganda. 

Here's a round up of folks who actually watched it...which took me about 10 seconds to find. Ymmv. 

https://kyivindependent.com/is-russians-at-war-propaganda-we-asked-7-people-in-film-who-saw-it/

 

I am still on the fence until I see it. So if the movie simply leaves that scene there, well yes it is heading towards propaganda. But if later in the movie that same young man is entirely disillusioned by his experiences in the war it pushes the narrative in the other direction.

As to the “Russian filmmaker” label, we know there are plenty of Russians who oppose this war outside Russia.

Personally, I will wait to see it and then make a judgement.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, poesel said:

Now we agree

Let the healing begin!

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am still on the fence until I see it. So if the movie simply leaves that scene there, well yes it is heading towards propaganda. But if later in the movie that same young man is entirely disillusioned by his experiences in the war it pushes the narrative in the other direction.

As to the “Russian filmmaker” label, we know there are plenty of Russians who oppose this war outside Russia.

Personally, I will wait to see it and then make a judgement.

What will become clearer over time is that Trofimova did the film based on conditions that the MoD set that went beyond basic issues of security. Aka, propaganda by definition. 

[sburke]

39 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

I thought you said you played Panzer Blitz/Panzer Leader when you were young? Of course if you meant you stayed away from Steve Jackson games, I get that. Their games didn't interest me. There is a true story about them being raided by the Secret Service because of their Cyber Punk role playing game.  

SJ Games vs. the Secret Service

I do hear from reliable sources he played CM Touch.  ouch, freakin Steve just kicked me!  Mom!!!!!!!

[Ts4EVER]

I haven't followed this for a bit, but the Kursk offensive is basically a failure right?

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I haven't followed this for a bit, but the Kursk offensive is basically a failure right?

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

Honestly Steve, that is the type of argument I would expect from my wife, dredging up ancient arguments. I hardly remember what I wrote last month, let alone 10 years ago, but it does seem to have gotten under your skin though...

I am a historian by nature.  History matters for a number of reasons, including offering us a tool to evaluate the world around us today and going forward.  One can not learn from mistakes if one doesn't remember making them. 

So let's be clear.  You have just argued, today, that propaganda isn't really a big deal and people should be trusted to properly evaluate fact from fiction.  As it happens, this is specific to Russian talking points.  Yet when this war really started (2014) you were repeating those exact same Russian talking points and arguing, very strongly, against anybody that tried to show you a more truthful representation of the world.  Now you are denying/dismissing it even happened and trying to, somehow, make this about me. 

I don't know which is worse... forgetting that you were the willing tool of an autocratic state pushing a murderous agenda, or that you don't really appear to care.  Either way, I can't help it if I remember things that are relevant and appropriately bring them into current discussions.  Shame on me for being relevant.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I haven't followed this for a bit, but the Kursk offensive is basically a failure right?

Jury is still out, but it does depend on what Ukraine hoped to achieve on the ground.  If they expected this to halt the Donbas operation, instantly, then it was a failure.  If they expected it to slow the Donbas operation to the point of irrelevance, then... maybe it worked?  If they had no expectations on what would happen in the Donbas, but wanted to show its population and allies that it is "still in the game", then it was a very big success.  Russia being embarrassed and shown weak was unlikely a primary goal, but that was definitely achieved so definitely a thumbs up on that.

I suspect that Ukraine was hoping to slow the Donbas offensive faster and more steeply than it did.  However, I also suspect they didn't think Ukrainian forces would be sitting on so much Russian territory 7 weeks into the operation.  And now it MIGHT be that Russia's Donbas operations are slowing and they aren't able to kick Ukraine out of Kursk. 

So... I provided Russia doesn't pull a surprise defeat of Ukrainian forces in either Kursk or the Donbas... I'd say it should be viewed as a significant success.

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

What worries me is that the Russian offensive does not seem to be slowing significantly, other than maybe short term or in certain areas. Generally the latest phase of the war seems to have consisted of slow but fairly steady Russian advances. And the ground seized by Ukraine seems to have little military value and holding it now will probably cost a lot of materiel and men for little gain. It seems more and more like a PR stunt with possibly dire consequences.

My feeling is that there might be an end to the war relatively soon, possibly with Russia keeping whatever they seized, but the rest of Ukraine remaining in the western influence sphere (for now). This is not a rosy future for the people of Ukraine, certainly.

[Sgt Joch]

54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am a historian by nature.  History matters for a number of reasons, including offering us a tool to evaluate the world around us today and going forward.  One can not learn from mistakes if one doesn't remember making them. 

So let's be clear.  You have just argued, today, that propaganda isn't really a big deal and people should be trusted to properly evaluate fact from fiction.  As it happens, this is specific to Russian talking points.  Yet when this war really started (2014) you were repeating those exact same Russian talking points and arguing, very strongly, against anybody that tried to show you a more truthful representation of the world.  Now you are denying/dismissing it even happened and trying to, somehow, make this about me. 

I don't know which is worse... forgetting that you were the willing tool of an autocratic state pushing a murderous agenda, or that you don't really appear to care.  Either way, I can't help it if I remember things that are relevant and appropriately bring them into current discussions.  Shame on me for being relevant.

Steve

There you go again arguing like a woman and digging up long buried arguments. I am not going to renege, defend or even acknowledge any of it. This line of argumentation is way too personal and totally out of line and you know it.

[sburke]

The one aspect we can't evaluate is just how long can Russia keep going with the meat assaults.  They already have shortages in the labor market that are contributing to an economy in overdrive in terms of inflation etc. The war and the Russian economy are tied together as a machine that does have limits.  We have no way of really knowing how close or not we are to a critical failure in the system.  Putin recently talked about reducing exports to punish the West, a pretty stupid idea that will just place even more stress on the Russian systems.  We've all heard @The_Capt talk about option spaces.  It appears Russia's have gotten severely constrained.

We also can't see the stress this is putting on the Russian political sphere though there have been indications it is pretty strong.  Despite our sneering at the massive failures of the RA, Russians as a whole aren't stupid.  There are undoubtedly folks that do realize this war is a complete and utter mess with no chance of getting better enough to make up for the damage to the Russian state.  Doesn't mean they are good guys, but their own self-interest could drive them to actions that aren't helpful to Putin.  The calculus regarding the US elections has also changed dramatically since July.  If they were betting on a US administration that would reduce its commitment to Ukraine and NATO, that bet has gotten a lot less likely.

I think the Kursk offensive has to also be viewed with that in mind.  We don't know what the UA expected it to do or how close they are to achieving what they thought they could do.  The overall expenditure in resources does not appear to be extensive (in terms of losses).  The gains Russia has made in the Donbas while making a lot of headlines, are not strategic.

The jolt in the arm the UA offensive has given its own populace, the world in general and to some extent to Russians themselves has been pretty darn good.  It is also unclear when Russia will pull together the forces to retake their own territory and where they will come from.  I mean geez, did anyone here think we'd be talking about how long it would take Russia to retake its own territory back in July?

Regarding a possible end state - Ukraine's survival as an independent state is first and foremost the bar for winning.  Russia's goal was to eliminate Ukraine as an independent nation and proceed with a genocidal campaign to eliminate any liberal democratic influences.  If Ukraine is able to survive, get western support to rebuild, join the EU and NATO, I'd say Russia failed miserably.  Looking past that to 30 years down the road, what happens to Eastern Ukraine and Crimea may not even have to be negotiated with Russia. The damage the Russians are doing to themselves will be generations unfolding.

[Holien]

17 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

There you go again arguing like a woman and digging up long buried arguments

A bit of broad brush sexism nice... 

You ain't helping yourself...

It seems to me that you are the one making it personal. 

Edited Monday at 08:52 PM by Holien

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said:

What worries me is that the Russian offensive does not seem to be slowing significantly, other than maybe short term or in certain areas. Generally the latest phase of the war seems to have consisted of slow but fairly steady Russian advances.

Ukrainian "reviewer" Mashovets writes that the Russian advances in the East have slowed down due to a steady exhaustion of manpower, but that the Ukrainian troops are also still in a very difficult situation. 

Quote

And the ground seized by Ukraine seems to have little military value and holding it now will probably cost a lot of materiel and men for little gain. It seems more and more like a PR stunt with possibly dire consequences.

Well, what is militarily valuable territory?

Ukrainian troops rejoiced about the ability to breathe and move a little in the Kursk area, instead of being forced to stay in the deadly attrition game. 

Ukraine cannot realistically win by seizing Russian territory, it can realistically win by exhausting Russian reserves faster than its own reserves. For that purpose, collecting or killing hundreds or even thousands of younger Russian men in a short period of time, which the brief maneuver period seems to have allowed, was a good investment. 

The question is now, if the fighting turns static, if Ukraine can choose positions that will make the area another grinder for Russia. 

Ukraine can always gain an advantage by forcing Russia to fight on political terms (Putin demands this or that town for his birthday or for a holiday) while making militarily sound choices itself (which it unfortunately doesn't always do). At the evry least Russia will now bomb its own villages into dust when it is retaking the territory.

That Ukraine gained significant political score for the "Western populations' race to boredom about Ukraine" it is forced to play is just a substantial bonus. 

Quote

My feeling is that there might be an end to the war relatively soon, possibly with Russia keeping whatever they seized, but the rest of Ukraine remaining in the western influence sphere (for now). This is not a rosy future for the people of Ukraine, certainly.

People like Vlad Vexler, who provides interesting commentary on the political "internal organics" of RU, stipulated that Putin in 2021 considered his regime (not necessarily Russia) as more stable with a (long) war than without one. Under that aspect there is very little reason to think that there will be a true "end". A lull in activity? Possible. 

But even if a united Western pressure on Ukraine would happen in order to agree to something like this, this unified effort will crumble if Russia violates a ceasefire before the ink has dried on the paper, which has been the usual Russian behaviour. 

Edited Monday at 08:58 PM by Carolus

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said:

does not seem to be slowing significantly

I am sorry but this is just plain wrong

[Carolus]

One thing I forgot to add about Kursk offensive is the economic impact. 

Kursk and Belogrod Oblast, both on the border with Ukraine, are part of the south-western region which creates a "net surplus" for the Russian economy, whereas many other regions of the vast Russian empire are economically rather, let's say, 'stale'. 

Panic and refugees moving in the area creates economic pressure, makes it harder for local factories to stay in business when its employees decide to pack up and leave (within Russia).

Of course this isn't something that on its own is gonna decide the war.

But the Russian empire is like a giant statue and the economy represents its clay feet. Ukraine and the West are pushing and pulling on that giant, while Putin and Xi are hugging its legs. Every chip that shows in the structure makes the long-term development for Ukraine more positive.

Edited Monday at 09:13 PM by Carolus

[Ts4EVER]

I think you might be overly optimistic here, but then again, I also don't have the numbers or detailed knowledge, so I guess we'll see what the future brings.

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I think you might be overly optimistic here, but then again, I also don't have the numbers or detailed knowledge, so I guess we'll see what the future brings.

which one are you responding to?    none of us have the numbers for sure, but there are things that we do know.  Trying to figure out what they mean and where we really are is a bit difficult for sure.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

I think you might be overly optimistic here, but then again, I also don't have the numbers or detailed knowledge, so I guess we'll see what the future brings.

That was the point of my first response to you.  As with many things in this war, it is too soon to make a final pronouncement.  In fact, as the offensive started one of Ukraine's solidly stable and analytical voices, Tatarigami_UA (on X), made some pretty strong statements against the operation.  Days later, when it became clearer what was happening, he admitted he made a knee-jerk reaction and started to speak (cautiously) more favorably of the move.  We have also had some very good, in depth discussions about it. 

I believe very firmly that Ukraine made the right move given all circumstances considered at the time the decision was made.  How it will turn out, however, is yet to be seen.

Steve